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Progressive Movement ready to fight EC right to the end, says Piyabutr


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1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

This move of the EC to prosecute Thanathorn and others of FFP right now is to willingly increase the tensions and, together with provocations caused by organized yellow thugs, to create violence. The reason is simply that the powers-that-be want a decisive battle as soon as possible. They hope to ingnite violence and real riots, to have an excuse for their desired tough crackdown. It's all a well engineered agenda of escalation what happens right now. 

I really don't see violence as the solution to the crisis; counter productive, in fact, given the mass of the people are clearly unhappy with the current status quo. As always, I reiterate the opinion that banning the FFP was a big mistake, which is clear to most, and doubling down on that mistake seems a little, shall we say naive, to be generous. Every cauldron needs a release valve.

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1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

This move of the EC to prosecute Thanathorn and others of FFP right now is to willingly increase the tensions and, together with provocations caused by organized yellow thugs, to create violence. The reason is simply that the powers-that-be want a decisive battle as soon as possible. They hope to ingnite violence and real riots, to have an excuse for their desired tough crackdown. It's all a well engineered agenda of escalation what happens right now. 

 

I guess that after this coming crackdown, and after a possible coup by the new army leader Narongphan to get to geet rid of the political deadlock, to end the demonstrations and to have a 'reset' on the whole mess, the army will give the power to some civil friends. Likely Anutin then will appointed as the next PM, possibly after a short intermezzo of Narongphan or Apirat as interim-PM.

 

The civil government later will be appointed in order to appease the people and the international community, and to create a "government of national unity", whose duty only will be to protect the system for another decade, before the whole cycle will start again.

 

 

 

The old road.

 

A comforting one for many.

 

A comforting delusion this time.

 

This is the New Era.

 

This time there will be no "impartial" mediation.

 

This time it's "A l'outrance".

 

 

 

Edited by Enoon
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8 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

What I believe, though, is that they will use the police with tear gas and rubber bullets, rather than the army with life ammunition. 

I have a feeling the BiB isn't on the usurper side. They got shafted for extra pay and that's a no-no here.

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3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I have a feeling the BiB isn't on the usurper side. They got shafted for extra pay and that's a no-no here.

 

 You might be right, quite possible, yes. But how about the lower ranks of the army? 

 

Interesting times...

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39 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

Yes, sure. For the students and for every modern, intelligent person violence is not a solution. But for the generals it is. It will be the way they go, when they do not see any other way to get rid of the uncomfortable situation they are facing now with the protests.

 

They are trained to use violence, they are able to use violence, and they live in their own medieval world which makes them believe that the use of violence is a good way, a way they can be proud of. So they will be very motivated to use violence.

 

What I believe, though, is that they will use the police with tear gas and rubber bullets, rather than the army with life ammunition. It would took too bad on the international stage if they shoot and kill children. But who knows....we are dealing with brain dead dinosours here.

 

Really depends on how you view the situation. Ninety per cent or more on one side, ten per cent or less on the other, who's going to win? It will be bad for Thailand, that's for sure, violence I mean.

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At the moment using the police will keep it some what civil the moment they let the army take over will be a big mistake, The world is watching.

Start putting M-16's in the hands of 18 year old conscripts the end is nigh

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26 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

At the moment using the police will keep it some what civil the moment they let the army take over will be a big mistake, The world is watching.

Start putting M-16's in the hands of 18 year old conscripts the end is nigh

One of the "Powers That Be's" problems is that the 18 year old conscripts cannot be relied upon come the crunch. "At your Uncles and Cousins, 50 metres to your front, 10 rounds rapid, go on!" is a fire order which is unlikely to be well received by a conscript with a worn out M16 whose pay is two months late!

 

Maybe the regulars with the newer "Tavor" rifles, but are there enough of them?

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34 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

They are not so stupid as to send in the 18yo conscripts. Certain Bangkok regiments are very loyal to certain people. The reliable ones will be used as they were before.

 

The Army had no problem firing live ammunition into crowds. I recall when Abhisit was on TV lying about not using live ammunition, when TV pictures clearly showed soldiers firing live ammo from M16's without suppressors. This was at the very start of the anti-government protests, long before there was any barricades at Rajaprasong and Lumphini or any real threats or danger from the Red Shirts.

 

 

I fear the same will happen again. 

 

 

Certain units are loyal to certain people, and well equipped as a result, but are there enough of them?

If the protests and demonstrations spread beyond central Bangkok(which they almost certainly will if the shooting starts, then they would not be able to control the country.

Edited by herfiehandbag
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47 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

They are not so stupid as to send in the 18yo conscripts. Certain Bangkok regiments are very loyal to certain people. The reliable ones will be used as they were before.

 

The Army had no problem firing live ammunition into crowds. I recall when Abhisit was on TV lying about not using live ammunition, when TV pictures clearly showed soldiers firing live ammo from M16's without suppressors. This was at the very start of the anti-government protests, long before there was any barricades at Rajaprasong and Lumphini or any real threats or danger from the Red Shirts.

 

 

I fear the same will happen again. 

Very likely. From what I've read the "loyal guard" is about 5,000 strong. To complete what has been started they need to be obliterated.

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18 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I don't.

 

Suthep claims the whole thing was a calculated conspiracy to steal power from the outset. All the while he was lying to everybody saying there would be no coup.

 

This indicates a level of moral cowardice that, compounded with his arrogant, boorish, threatening and childish actions while in power suggest a person not capable of grand ideas.

 

 

Note Sondhi now calling for another coup and handing total power back to the highest institution. 

 

Gonna get messy.

 

I agree but think that as long as the protestors stay with the hong kong plan of non agression that eventually something will give.  It may be that they have to keep this up until the next election but at least if nothing else they are going to keep people accountable and the army may have a lot more trouble winning the next election.

 

The one thing that people need to do is narrow it down to 1 or 2 political parties fighting for control that way it cuts downon the chance of getting in power by offerring favours to non entitiy parties

 

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On 10/29/2020 at 11:21 AM, herfiehandbag said:

One of the "Powers That Be's" problems is that the 18 year old conscripts cannot be relied upon come the crunch. "At your Uncles and Cousins, 50 metres to your front, 10 rounds rapid, go on!" is a fire order which is unlikely to be well received by a conscript with a worn out M16 whose pay is two months late!

 

Maybe the regulars with the newer "Tavor" rifles, but are there enough of them?

I agree. This will most likely come down to a fight between elite forces and the mass of the people, unless a compromise can be reached.

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On 10/28/2020 at 11:03 AM, Flying Saucage said:

This move of the EC to prosecute Thanathorn and others of FFP right now is to willingly increase the tensions and, together with provocations caused by organized yellow thugs, to create violence. The reason is simply that the powers-that-be want a decisive battle as soon as possible. They hope to ingnite violence and real riots, to have an excuse for their desired tough crackdown. It's all a well engineered agenda of escalation what happens right now. 

 

I guess that after this coming crackdown, and after a possible coup by the new army leader Narongphan to get to geet rid of the political deadlock, to end the demonstrations and to have a 'reset' on the whole mess, the army will give the power to some civil friends. Likely Anutin then will appointed as the next PM, possibly after a short intermezzo of Narongphan or Apirat as interim-PM.

 

The civil government later will be appointed in order to appease the people and the international community, and to create a "government of national unity", whose duty only will be to protect the system for another decade, before the whole cycle will start again.

 

 

I worry so too. Stack loads of ridiculous and biased rulings and arrests on top of each other. Maybe some democracy fighters will snap... gives the ex junta an excuse to come cracking down in the name of national security and unity etc etc.  

I wish the democracy fighters all the luck in the world. But it's gonna be a tough fight with the double standards and other injustices that we can see every day. 

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:02 PM, Mr Meeseeks said:

They are not so stupid as to send in the 18yo conscripts. Certain Bangkok regiments are very loyal to certain people. The reliable ones will be used as they were before.

 

The Army had no problem firing live ammunition into crowds. I recall when Abhisit was on TV lying about not using live ammunition, when TV pictures clearly showed soldiers firing live ammo from M16's without suppressors. This was at the very start of the anti-government protests, long before there was any barricades at Rajaprasong and Lumphini or any real threats or danger from the Red Shirts.

 

 

I fear the same will happen again. 

 

 

I heard the deputy leader of Pheu Thai on Khaosod  saying even having a coup will not stop  the protests.  I don't think the Army realizes  the power of technology. If the protesters really get going and have the intent they could really disable the country.  You do not need thousands of people to stop traffic in a city. A guerrilla program with someone sitting on Twitter sending groups to strategic places in the city, stopping traffic  then moving somewhere else before the authorities come could paralyse the city. There is nothing illegal about telling several thousand people to log onto the same government site at the same time but it will shut the site down. I hope it does not come to this but if it does I can't see what tanks and guns can do to stop it. I understood that telling kids not to do something usually causes an opposite reaction or did when I was young.

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