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Progressive Movement ready to fight EC right to the end, says Piyabutr


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47 minutes ago, candide said:

Prayuth has never been an independent player. He did not do it on his own, he was told to. Just like Abhisit was told to appoint him as army chief in 2014.

Oooops! I mean Abhisit appointed him in 2010.

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22 hours ago, candide said:

Prayuth has never been an independent player. He did not do it on his own, he was told to. Just like Abhisit was told to appoint him as army chief in 2014.

 

Most military officers are not independent thinkers remember they came through military universities, got promoted not for what they did but the politics of military life.  Never really had a job where they had to worry about making enough to pay wages.

 

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40 minutes ago, kingstonkid said:

 

Most military officers are not independent thinkers remember they came through military universities, got promoted not for what they did but the politics of military life.  Never really had a job where they had to worry about making enough to pay wages.

 

You may be right, but it's not the point I was making. My point is that, from the start,  he's been controlled by the dominant network (although he may be also influencial in this network).

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It seems there are 2 major forces against each other:

      Gov / Prayuth    vs    Student Protesters

 

But, under the pro-Gov side there are:

       BKK Police

       Army Regiments from BKK (controlled by the man behind the curtain)

       Army units controlled by the new Chief of the Army (outside of BKK)
           Maybe this new chief reports to Apirat really ???

 

I don't see Prayuth having any Army he can control.  The new Chief of the Army was not his choice, but backed by the man behind the curtain.  Apirat is under the man behind the curtain now as well.

 

What real power does Prayuth really have?

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1 hour ago, HaoleBoy said:

It seems there are 2 major forces against each other:

      Gov / Prayuth    vs    Student Protesters

 

But, under the pro-Gov side there are:

       BKK Police

       Army Regiments from BKK (controlled by the man behind the curtain)

       Army units controlled by the new Chief of the Army (outside of BKK)
           Maybe this new chief reports to Apirat really ???

 

I don't see Prayuth having any Army he can control.  The new Chief of the Army was not his choice, but backed by the man behind the curtain.  Apirat is under the man behind the curtain now as well.

 

What real power does Prayuth really have?

It's not about Prayuth himself, it's about the network which controls him, as well as the police and the judiciary and semi-judiciary. 

If needed, the network will replace him by another one, who will not be more independent.

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On 11/1/2020 at 7:10 PM, candide said:

They cannot do it again because this time it is not the Issan buffalos protesting. They are the children of the Bangkok middle and upper class people who constitute the core of yellow/green supporters. These are the people who took to the street in 2014 against Yingluck and voted for Prayuth's party.

 

On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more. They may try old tricks such as placing bombs and arms cache in order to blame it on protesters, insert troublemakers in protests, etc... but that probably won't be enough to justify killing protesters.

 

"On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more." I don't but that, who just recently took over the reins of PT? His previous wife.

 

I have no doubt they would be very active and back to their old attitudes and methods at the drop of a hot.

 

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On 11/1/2020 at 3:10 PM, candide said:

They cannot do it again because this time it is not the Issan buffalos protesting. They are the children of the Bangkok middle and upper class people who constitute the core of yellow/green supporters. These are the people who took to the street in 2014 against Yingluck and voted for Prayuth's party.

 

On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more. They may try old tricks such as placing bombs and arms cache in order to blame it on protesters, insert troublemakers in protests, etc... but that probably won't be enough to justify killing protesters.

The major flaw with that is, they don't need to justify anything - shoot first and make excuses after the event......this is Thailand. 

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1 hour ago, scorecard said:

 

"On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more." I don't but that, who just recently took over the reins of PT? His previous wife.

 

I have no doubt they would be very active and back to their old attitudes and methods at the drop of a hot.

 

Of course, they are still influential. What I mean is that the core of protesters in Bangkok are not Thaksin supporters (although I have no doubt that his supporters are also happy to participate), and that they cannot use this argument anymore. Nothing to compare with red shirts protests. The Sino-Thai middle and higher class knows it well, as it is their children who are protesting.

 

Thaksin may be able to harvest something later, but that's another story.

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On 10/28/2020 at 4:00 PM, steven100 said:

good luck with that one .....   lol

Well Steven, which is the worst crime?

 

LOANING a political party money, or making a military coup and overthrowing a legally elected PM and government?

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On 10/28/2020 at 5:03 PM, Flying Saucage said:

This move of the EC to prosecute Thanathorn and others of FFP right now is to willingly increase the tensions and, together with provocations caused by organized yellow thugs, to create violence. The reason is simply that the powers-that-be want a decisive battle as soon as possible. They hope to ingnite violence and real riots, to have an excuse for their desired tough crackdown. It's all a well engineered agenda of escalation what happens right now. 

 

I guess that after this coming crackdown, and after a possible coup by the new army leader Narongphan to get to geet rid of the political deadlock, to end the demonstrations and to have a 'reset' on the whole mess, the army will give the power to some civil friends. Likely Anutin then will appointed as the next PM, possibly after a short intermezzo of Narongphan or Apirat as interim-PM.

 

The civil government later will be appointed in order to appease the people and the international community, and to create a "government of national unity", whose duty only will be to protect the system for another decade, before the whole cycle will start again.

 

 

I agree with you, basically. However I feel that things run deeper this time. The young generation and many middle aged people are thoroughly fed up with this farce called politics and government for several past years. While the country is in an economy up-a-blind-alley situation, with human rights violations on top of it. This mass of people will not tolerate anything but real change. They see right through the charade. So a new junta would have to face mass protest. If it ends with bloodshed then the powers that be have lost the plot and game.

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23 hours ago, candide said:

You may be right, but it's not the point I was making. My point is that, from the start,  he's been controlled by the dominant network (although he may be also influencial in this network).

I understand your point but the funny thing about military politics is that the military politics lasts until you get to Colonel.  Then it changes to the real outside world politics.

At Colonel people start looking and getting more affected by the outside business world as they are getting aware that their time in the military's may be coming to and end and they look at what job they can get.

 

There are a lot of good officer's out there but I can tell you from experience politics is an overseer of what they do.

 

 

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