Popular Post candide Posted November 1, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 6:02 AM, Mr Meeseeks said: They are not so stupid as to send in the 18yo conscripts. Certain Bangkok regiments are very loyal to certain people. The reliable ones will be used as they were before. The Army had no problem firing live ammunition into crowds. I recall when Abhisit was on TV lying about not using live ammunition, when TV pictures clearly showed soldiers firing live ammo from M16's without suppressors. This was at the very start of the anti-government protests, long before there was any barricades at Rajaprasong and Lumphini or any real threats or danger from the Red Shirts. I fear the same will happen again. They cannot do it again because this time it is not the Issan buffalos protesting. They are the children of the Bangkok middle and upper class people who constitute the core of yellow/green supporters. These are the people who took to the street in 2014 against Yingluck and voted for Prayuth's party. On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more. They may try old tricks such as placing bombs and arms cache in order to blame it on protesters, insert troublemakers in protests, etc... but that probably won't be enough to justify killing protesters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post candide Posted November 1, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 10/29/2020 at 7:45 AM, kingstonkid said: Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely I actually think Prayut came into power with grand ideas. Then the outside forces have now gotten control of him. Prayuth has never been an independent player. He did not do it on his own, he was told to. Just like Abhisit was told to appoint him as army chief in 2014. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candide Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 47 minutes ago, candide said: Prayuth has never been an independent player. He did not do it on his own, he was told to. Just like Abhisit was told to appoint him as army chief in 2014. Oooops! I mean Abhisit appointed him in 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingstonkid Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 22 hours ago, candide said: Prayuth has never been an independent player. He did not do it on his own, he was told to. Just like Abhisit was told to appoint him as army chief in 2014. Most military officers are not independent thinkers remember they came through military universities, got promoted not for what they did but the politics of military life. Never really had a job where they had to worry about making enough to pay wages. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candide Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 (edited) 40 minutes ago, kingstonkid said: Most military officers are not independent thinkers remember they came through military universities, got promoted not for what they did but the politics of military life. Never really had a job where they had to worry about making enough to pay wages. You may be right, but it's not the point I was making. My point is that, from the start, he's been controlled by the dominant network (although he may be also influencial in this network). Edited November 2, 2020 by candide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaoleBoy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 It seems there are 2 major forces against each other: Gov / Prayuth vs Student Protesters But, under the pro-Gov side there are: BKK Police Army Regiments from BKK (controlled by the man behind the curtain) Army units controlled by the new Chief of the Army (outside of BKK) Maybe this new chief reports to Apirat really ??? I don't see Prayuth having any Army he can control. The new Chief of the Army was not his choice, but backed by the man behind the curtain. Apirat is under the man behind the curtain now as well. What real power does Prayuth really have? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candide Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, HaoleBoy said: It seems there are 2 major forces against each other: Gov / Prayuth vs Student Protesters But, under the pro-Gov side there are: BKK Police Army Regiments from BKK (controlled by the man behind the curtain) Army units controlled by the new Chief of the Army (outside of BKK) Maybe this new chief reports to Apirat really ??? I don't see Prayuth having any Army he can control. The new Chief of the Army was not his choice, but backed by the man behind the curtain. Apirat is under the man behind the curtain now as well. What real power does Prayuth really have? It's not about Prayuth himself, it's about the network which controls him, as well as the police and the judiciary and semi-judiciary. If needed, the network will replace him by another one, who will not be more independent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorecard Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 11/1/2020 at 7:10 PM, candide said: They cannot do it again because this time it is not the Issan buffalos protesting. They are the children of the Bangkok middle and upper class people who constitute the core of yellow/green supporters. These are the people who took to the street in 2014 against Yingluck and voted for Prayuth's party. On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more. They may try old tricks such as placing bombs and arms cache in order to blame it on protesters, insert troublemakers in protests, etc... but that probably won't be enough to justify killing protesters. "On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more." I don't but that, who just recently took over the reins of PT? His previous wife. I have no doubt they would be very active and back to their old attitudes and methods at the drop of a hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artisi Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 11/1/2020 at 3:10 PM, candide said: They cannot do it again because this time it is not the Issan buffalos protesting. They are the children of the Bangkok middle and upper class people who constitute the core of yellow/green supporters. These are the people who took to the street in 2014 against Yingluck and voted for Prayuth's party. On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more. They may try old tricks such as placing bombs and arms cache in order to blame it on protesters, insert troublemakers in protests, etc... but that probably won't be enough to justify killing protesters. The major flaw with that is, they don't need to justify anything - shoot first and make excuses after the event......this is Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candide Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, scorecard said: "On top of it, they cannot evoke the usual bogeyman excuse as Thaksin and his familly are not a threat any more." I don't but that, who just recently took over the reins of PT? His previous wife. I have no doubt they would be very active and back to their old attitudes and methods at the drop of a hot. Of course, they are still influential. What I mean is that the core of protesters in Bangkok are not Thaksin supporters (although I have no doubt that his supporters are also happy to participate), and that they cannot use this argument anymore. Nothing to compare with red shirts protests. The Sino-Thai middle and higher class knows it well, as it is their children who are protesting. Thaksin may be able to harvest something later, but that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billd766 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 On 10/28/2020 at 4:00 PM, steven100 said: good luck with that one ..... lol Well Steven, which is the worst crime? LOANING a political party money, or making a military coup and overthrowing a legally elected PM and government? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Ozark Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 10/28/2020 at 5:03 PM, Flying Saucage said: This move of the EC to prosecute Thanathorn and others of FFP right now is to willingly increase the tensions and, together with provocations caused by organized yellow thugs, to create violence. The reason is simply that the powers-that-be want a decisive battle as soon as possible. They hope to ingnite violence and real riots, to have an excuse for their desired tough crackdown. It's all a well engineered agenda of escalation what happens right now. I guess that after this coming crackdown, and after a possible coup by the new army leader Narongphan to get to geet rid of the political deadlock, to end the demonstrations and to have a 'reset' on the whole mess, the army will give the power to some civil friends. Likely Anutin then will appointed as the next PM, possibly after a short intermezzo of Narongphan or Apirat as interim-PM. The civil government later will be appointed in order to appease the people and the international community, and to create a "government of national unity", whose duty only will be to protect the system for another decade, before the whole cycle will start again. I agree with you, basically. However I feel that things run deeper this time. The young generation and many middle aged people are thoroughly fed up with this farce called politics and government for several past years. While the country is in an economy up-a-blind-alley situation, with human rights violations on top of it. This mass of people will not tolerate anything but real change. They see right through the charade. So a new junta would have to face mass protest. If it ends with bloodshed then the powers that be have lost the plot and game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingstonkid Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 23 hours ago, candide said: You may be right, but it's not the point I was making. My point is that, from the start, he's been controlled by the dominant network (although he may be also influencial in this network). I understand your point but the funny thing about military politics is that the military politics lasts until you get to Colonel. Then it changes to the real outside world politics. At Colonel people start looking and getting more affected by the outside business world as they are getting aware that their time in the military's may be coming to and end and they look at what job they can get. There are a lot of good officer's out there but I can tell you from experience politics is an overseer of what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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