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Committee Agrees to Reduce Travel Quarantine


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That's still 10 days too much.

Thailands low Covid numbers are based on luck, lies and low numbers of testing.   The lucky part is related to its climate, the social behaviour and a possible genetic predisposition of the

the wise one has spoken.... did he forgot that a French lady stayed in quarantine for 14 days and tested negative, a week later  travel to Kho Samui and then tested positive

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23 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The consensus is that she acquired the Virus in Quarantine prior to being let out.  The ASQ Hotel has been removed from the list of the hotels allowed due to lax procedures apparently.

 

However, this was just released in another OP:

Dr Sopon Iamsirithaworn, director of the Disease Control Department’s Bureau of General Communicable Diseases, said on Thursday the French patient’s test did not match that of two other foreign guests at the same hotel who tested positive. He said tests showed the woman had contracted the infection 17 days earlier, which rules out the Samut Prakan hotel.

 

 

 

 

There is no way tests can show she was infected 17 days prior, no such test exists.

 

They can (and apparently have) ruled out cross infection between her and the 2 other guests, that is all.

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4 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

There is no way tests can show she was infected 17 days prior, no such test exists.

 

They can (and apparently have) ruled out cross infection between her and the 2 other guests, that is all.

I know Sheryl, these medical professionals and then the MOPH I feel are inept with there failed deduction and reasoning.  It makes one really wonder what there end game really is.  Then try to fathom Anutins latest proposal to reduce quarantine to 10 days.  I am sitting here scratching my head.

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22 minutes ago, OumarhindaOunsingha said:

What hospitals are over filling in Europe? Where did you get this idea? Here in Denmark we opened nearly totally up two months ago, and now we have 125 hospitalisations, 18 in intensive care, and 6 in respirator. We are six million people in this country. We have around 2-3 deaths per day from corona. What exactly constotutes "over filling" in your definition? 

Jesus! What is wrong with people these days... Everyone with just the slightest trace of a brain can so easily conclude, based on cases versus deaths for all Scandinavian countries, that covid no longer pose a threat against human health, generally. 

Thailand must realise this FACT and fully open, direct the money towards the hospitals and learn to treat covid patients like we are here in Scandinavia, and extremely few deaths will be found in Thailand.

End of f'ing story!

If you were American I’m guessing you would be wearing a red hat everywhere and refusing to cover your face. 

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23 hours ago, essox essox said:

IF they are going to do this then why extend the state of emergency NOT make any sense !!

Ah but you are assuming the state of emergency relates directly to the covid pandemic. I would suggest other considerations are paramount in the good generals thinking.

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1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

And also it is quite clear that European tourists, if tested negative, would not pose a big danger when arriving to Thailand, as the Thai climate helps to prevend a spread of the virus even if one is tested false negative.

The theory that warm weather would stop the spread (as also propagated by the Great Orange Leader of the Free World in March and April) has been debunked - by reality. Or else, India, Brazil, the Philippines would not claim top spots behind the US. The July surge in Spain was not caused by Scotland-typical drizzle and fog, but by the peak tourist season. These hot-climate countries don´t report so many cases just because they test 10 times as many persons as the US. They don't. Rather, the opposite: a surge in cases despite warm weather and despite a lower test rate.

It´s the degree of coordinated social distancing, mask-wearing and tracing new infections that results in either fewer or more infections.

In Europe and the US, the curves started to rise again 2-3 weeks after the start of the vacation season when people believed that the virus wildfires had burnt out. But even a few leftover hotspots in the underbrush (like the handful of initial infections in last February, to say nothing about 50 daily new infections per 100,000 population) suffice to incinerate everything again when politicians declare that "we have rounded the corner" and, with great fanfare, de-emphasize distancing or, in some countries, even politicize masks.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, OumarhindaOunsingha said:

What hospitals are over filling in Europe? Where did you get this idea? Here in Denmark we opened nearly totally up two months ago, and now we have 125 hospitalisations, 18 in intensive care, and 6 in respirator. We are six million people in this country. We have around 2-3 deaths per day from corona. What exactly constotutes "over filling" in your definition? 

Jesus! What is wrong with people these days... Everyone with just the slightest trace of a brain can so easily conclude, based on cases versus deaths for all Scandinavian countries, that covid no longer pose a threat against human health, generally. 

Thailand must realise this FACT and fully open, direct the money towards the hospitals and learn to treat covid patients like we are here in Scandinavia, and extremely few deaths will be found in Thailand.

End of f'ing story!

Not contesting your reply but, regarding your sentence "Here in Denmark we opened nearly totally up two months ago", I am kind of confused as I am particularly looking at your country to conduct a personal matter with my partner over there. Unless we choose to fly from Thailand to Denmark directly (which is kind of out of the way from the point of view of visa obtention as we have no links with that kingdom ) we would not be allowed to get from another European country (France, Italy  and others: I am pretty sure that Sweden is also on this list) to Copenhagen: far from "nearly totally opened up" ...Let's watch Thursday's meetings to see how this evolves....not positively if you ask me

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1 hour ago, OumarhindaOunsingha said:

Why on earth is Denmark not doing well? And Sweden? What nonsense! I am Danish, btw...

No way you are from Denmark or you would know about the crazy increase of CV19 cases.

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24 minutes ago, maqui said:

The theory that warm weather would stop the spread (as also propagated by the Great Orange Leader of the Free World in March and April) has been debunked - by reality

 

This is not correct and a completely false narrative:

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238339&type=printable

 

https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

 

In fact, there is a very strong dependence on temperature, relative and absolute humidity on how the Coronavirus is transmitted. But the whole processes of transmission are very complex, and also includes density of population, wearing of maskes and other things. But, the climate plays a very strong role.

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1 hour ago, OumarhindaOunsingha said:

Here in Denmark we opened nearly totally up two months ago, and now we have 125 hospitalisations, 18 in intensive care, and 6 in respirator. We are six million people in this country. We have around 2-3 deaths per day from corona

Denmark has 9,700 active cases at present. DK's death rate is the same as Germany's, 125 per 1M. 

Exponential spread means: once you have suppressed the infection cases via distancing measures, the number of daily new cases remains low for a number of weeks, like between July and August. Then, with relaxed distancing and without a vaccine, the curve will start to rise, more and more steeply. The curve below  shows that active cases in DK have doubled within 2 weeks, since October. It´s almost vertical now. So DK will see tens of thousands of new active cases in November.

Only a fraction of them require hospitalization, perhaps 4%. 4% of 10,000 is 400. 4% of 100,000 is 4000. How many spare beds for infectious cases does DK have? 4,000? 8,000? With a doubling time of 1 week, you would reach the capacity limit after a few weeks. That´s exponential growth. 

The mortality rate rises with a time lag of several weeks. First, people go through 5 - 14 days of mostly symptom-free incubation time, then 1 week of sickness, then hospitalization for some of them; then exitus, 3-5 weeks after the infection, for the most severe cases. So the rising infections in late October will only become visible as a rising death curve in the second half of November. You don´t seem them now because the exponential death curve starts with a time lag.

In last March, DK had less than a 1,000 active cases, which grew to 4,000 by mid-April. What makes you think that 10,000 active cases in late October represent a better a starting point for November and December?  

image.png.bb509d9f5aa7e7877ad4f11b67adae91.png

 

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1 hour ago, OumarhindaOunsingha said:

What hospitals are over filling in Europe? Where did you get this idea?

 

Many cities - Paris, Northern UK cities are seeing intensive care unit beds filling up. 

 

Manchester UK - covid cases some of the highest per 100,000 in the world. Hospitals are filling up, and if the curve continues they predict they will run out of intensive care beds very soon. 

 

You forgot the scenes in Italy back in March - where they had people lying on floors in hospitals?  Italy has one of the most advanced health care systems in the world and was bought to it's knees in some regions. 

 

Thailand has never had these scenes in any of their public hospitals. Whilst it's not the only indicator, it is one example of why you can assume that the virus has not hit Thailand very hard. So whilst you may keep up your conspiracies of 'Thailand aren't testing', 'Loads of Covid in Thailand' - other than a conspiracy you have no evidence. 

 

A more pertinent question would perhaps by how on earth did it escape the full effects of the virus? 

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2 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

 

This is not correct and a completely false narrative:

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238339&type=printable

 

https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

 

In fact, there is a very stron dependence on temperature, relative and absolute humidity. But the whole processes of transmission are very complex, and also include density of population, wearing of maskes and other things. But, the climate plays a very strong role.

Are you kidding: 

"Experimental studies in guinea pigs demonstrated that influenza virus transmission is strongly modulated by temperature and humidity." 

A study on (1) influenza using (2) guinea pigs, published in (c) 2014?

 

And a study published by Egyptian Al Shams university, (a) received on April 08, 2020?

image.png.f5138586664deefa0abbdebf1681732d.png

There were hardly any cases in Egypt in March that could be investigated, certainly not with changing weather patterns. 

( b) It was a meta-study: not based on their own patient data, but a review of other science papers published in the Prospero database. Those other articles must have been based on medical data that were collected in January and February. That was a little better and more scientific than just reviewing Wikipedia articles in last March and early April - but by how much? 

 

If we add some hand-waving: "The interplay of temperatures and humidity may reduce or increase the viral reproduction rate", then we are where we are now:

We see that a warm-climate has had no discernible effect on India, the Middle East, Spain, Brazil, the Philippines, etc. We could say: "perhaps, without a warm climate, the infection rates in these countries might have been even worse." 

What do we do with this information? I'd certainly still ask all international arrivals to present a negative Covid test before boarding; and would make a second rapid test upon arrival at BKK airport. And I would require that also Thai citizens are subject to negative tests before boarding. Then a maximum of 5 days of ASQ and a third test. That should take care of the vast majority of risks. But warm weather and humidity is not an argeument on its own.

 

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3 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

big indoor parties of Arab and Turkish families with hundreds of participants

The same Arab and Turkish families had parties in Spain in July? And they have now spread all over France, the UK, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic and Germany?

Hm - they must have been celebrating the stealthy Ottoman conquest of Europe, 5 centuries after the last attempts of the Turkish sultans had failed near Vienna.

And now they bring the Christian occident to its knees by using a Chinese virus? Sneaky b*st*ds. Somebody should alert Qanon: the global conspiray extends far beyond the pizzeria in Washington D.C.

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