With election looming, U.S. faces record surge of coronavirus cases

[Sujo]

23 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Arrogant and condescending, I'd say. 

Not all, but majority. You can also.find educated people that are flat earthers. Theres brains and then theres intelligence.

[Sujo]

Australia close to rolling out the vaccine.

 

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/australia-to-start-manufacturing-covid-vaccine-as-rollout-plan-is-revealed-c-1496567

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, scammed said:

to count only the last week and state a trend from that

is the most preposterous of all

Hospitalizations are increasing rapidly. You don't see that as having consequences in regards to the level of mortality? 

[simple1]

50 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

It appears the desperation level for Trump's supporters has started to result in red neck intimidation encouraged by Don Junior !

The ultimate disgrace the USA might yet suffer is a resumption of  Civil War in the midst of a pandemic !

That in itself means  keeping an eye on players who  might take advantage of the distraction . Not a lot of  winning  in the wind !

 

Yep, both Don Jnr and trump himself expressed pleasure of the intimidation of a Biden campaign bus, which required police assistance to clear the path of travel. trump and co are stepping over the line. One hopes the stupidity won't accelerate, but doubtful.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/biden-bus-2020-campaign-texas-trump-supporters/index.html

 

 

[scammed]

55 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Hospitalizations are increasing rapidly. You don't see that as having consequences in regards to the level of mortality? 

i still havnt come across a shred of data that the much vaunted 2nd wave is going to be ohh soo much worse,,

as is the trending narrative, the cases are up, but the death toll has roughly flatlined. i know a couple of US states that are on increase, but i see no difference in them two with one having lockdown & mask and the other neither,

fluke or unknown data play a part in this

[Sheryl]

5 minutes ago, scammed said:

i still havnt come across a shred of data that the much vaunted 2nd wave is going to be ohh soo much worse,,

as is the trending narrative, the cases are up, but the death toll has roughly flatlined. ..

17% increase in daily death toll. I would hardly call that flatlined.

 

Even though case management has improved, there is no way numbers can keep shooting up without deaths also increasing.

 

 

[scammed]

2 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

17% increase in daily death toll. I would hardly call that flatlined.

 

Even though case management has improved, there is no way numbers can keep shooting up without deaths also increasing.

 

 

can you link to which nation or state you refer to ? actually i can find myself but i need the name of the state/nation

Edited November 1, 2020 by scammed

[sometimewoodworker]

5 minutes ago, scammed said:

i still havnt come across a shred of data that the much vaunted 2nd wave is going to be ohh soo much worse,,

as is the trending narrative, the cases are up, but the death toll has roughly flatlined. i know a couple of US states that are on increase, but i see no difference in them two with one having lockdown & mask and the other neither,

fluke or unknown data play a part in this

So you regard a trend of the death rate that over the last month has increased from around 800 corpses per day to just under 1,000 dead people every day is a flatline?
 

That the 7 day average is 20,000 more per day now than the highest in July is not so much worse

 

That the USA is so much worse (orders of magnitude greater) than Canada is anything other than a report card on the disaster that is the federal and local responsibility.

 

Shame on you for such an attempt to gaslight.

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, scammed said:

can you link to which nation or state you refer to ? actually i can find myself but i need the name of the state/nation

I was referring to the US.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

(I'm not sure you can log in if not a subscriber)

 

Worldwide it is +22% over the past 14 days.  UK is +121%

 

As ICUs in several European countries are now full/near full capacity we can expect more increases in the next 1-2 weeks before the new lockdown measures start to have an impact.  Definitley in the UK where the situation is quite bad.

 

I would add that while death reports are fairly complete for western countries they are not at all so for India and possibly also not for some parts  of Latin America...and these account for a huge number of infections. So the worldwide figures err on the low side.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rabas]

 

Try France or many of the other European countries. Several 100% rise in daily deaths since July/August when they had flattened out.  

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by onthedarkside
quote of removed post deleted

[polpott]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

 

Try France or many of the other European countries. Several 100% rise in daily deaths since July/August when they had flattened out.  

 

 

And the reason being because they had got their cases down to very low numbers so were starting from a near zero base. The US on the other hand started from a high base as they have never got anywhere near the low numbers of other countries at any time.

[Salerno]

1 hour ago, scammed said:

can you link to which nation or state you refer to ? actually i can find myself but i need the name of the state/nation

 

[scammed]

16 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

I was referring to the US.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

(I'm not sure you can log in if not a subscriber)

 

Worldwide it is +22% over the past 14 days.  UK is +121%

 

As ICUs in several European countries are now full/near full capacity we can expect more increases in the next 1-2 weeks before the new lockdown measures start to have an impact.  Definitley in the UK where the situation is quite bad.

 

I would add that while death reports are fairly complete for western countries they are not at all so for India and possibly also not for some parts  of Latin America...and these account for a huge number of infections. So the worldwide figures err on the low side.

 

 

 

 

 

 

see my post directly above yours where i address US daily deaths and trend for the past month

[sometimewoodworker]

You didn’t bother to check that I am talking of the month of October not any one week or any single day numbers?

I am well aware of the dangers of looking at individual days, so the chart above is a rolling 7 day average and it’s not remotely flat

Here is the rolling 7 day average of infection for October, you can see that it is getting close to doubling in the month.

 

you should be aware that deaths trail by between 2 and 8 weeks so November is going to see a continuing rising death rate

[scammed]

28 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Try France or many of the other European countries. Several 100% rise in daily deaths since July/August when they had flattened out.  

 

 

yes i see several european nations got a small uptick at the end of october, a noteworthy exception to this is sweden that show no sign at all, makes one wonder what the secret behind their success is

[scammed]

13 minutes ago, sometimewoodworker said:

you should be aware that deaths trail by between 2 and 8 weeks so November is going to see a continuing rising death rate

or not, i can post several nations that show no correlation between cases and deaths.

if your hypothesis was worth its salt, you would see a correlation every_time,

but alas, your hypothesis is falsified by data

Edited November 1, 2020 by scammed

[sometimewoodworker]

10 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes i see several european nations got a small uptick at the end of october, a noteworthy exception to this is sweden that show no sign at all, makes one wonder what the secret behind their success is

That the increase in cases, a substantial one, is recent.

[candide]

12 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes i see several european nations got a small uptick at the end of october, a noteworthy exception to this is sweden that show no sign at all, makes one wonder what the secret behind their success is

And, of course, it's not true!

https://junkcharts.typepad.com/numbersruleyourworld/2020/10/the-swedish-mirage-the-verdict-is-already-written.html

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes i see several european nations got a small uptick at the end of october, a noteworthy exception to this is sweden that show no sign at all, makes one wonder what the secret behind their success is

 

Sweden is an isolated data point, not so relevant at this time because the large EU wave is mostly spreading from Spain, which in fact is the source of a new, fast moving mutation 20A.EU1. The reasons for 20A.EU1's  fast rise in Europe though are not clear.  It may in part be due to increased traffic in and out of Spain.

 

[sometimewoodworker]

3 minutes ago, scammed said:

or not, i can post several nations that show no correlation between cases and deaths

Regrettably your time line is too short to validate that conclusion and with the very low comparative numbers the cure rate is likely to be better.

 

We can all hope that the death rate in the USA is not going to rise, that is in my opinion not going to be the case.

[RoadWarrior371]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

I was referring to the US.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

(I'm not sure you can log in if not a subscriber)

 

Worldwide it is +22% over the past 14 days.  UK is +121%

 

As ICUs in several European countries are now full/near full capacity we can expect more increases in the next 1-2 weeks before the new lockdown measures start to have an impact.  Definitley in the UK where the situation is quite bad.

 

I would add that while death reports are fairly complete for western countries they are not at all so for India and possibly also not for some parts  of Latin America...and these account for a huge number of infections. So the worldwide figures err on the low side.

 

US death rate is not spiking the same degree as Europe. Not a great case for lock-downs, clearly the virus is sneaky and smarter than the average bar-stool virologist.  ????

[rabas]

35 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes i see several european nations got a small uptick at the end of october, a noteworthy exception to this is sweden that show no sign at all, makes one wonder what the secret behind their success is

 

Here you can see the large rise in cases per 100,000 per day. Sweden is starting later but its rate of rise is turning very vertical. That vertical for cases/day is not good news.

 

You can also see the US's three waves.

 

 

[scammed]

1 hour ago, sometimewoodworker said:

Regrettably your time line is too short to validate that conclusion and with the very low comparative numbers the cure rate is likely to be better.

 

We can all hope that the death rate in the USA is not going to rise, that is in my opinion not going to be the case.

yes, i too think its just too early to draw a final conclusion.

i'm also eagerly awaiting new year for a balance sheet

of deaths and compare to last 10 years if deaths this year was significantly different from any other year

[sometimewoodworker]

1 hour ago, scammed said:

yes, i too think its just too early to draw a final conclusion.

i'm also eagerly awaiting new year for a balance sheet

of deaths and compare to last 10 years if deaths this year was significantly different from any other year

Correlation does not indicate causation.

 

Due to the measures taken in most countries there will be (already is) a reduction in some diseases like influenza reducing the death rate for those. There are more suicides, fewer road accidents but more serious injuries from them due to higher speeds. There are many more factors, those are just reasonably easy ones to pick out.

 

So absolute numbers have little meaning in themselves. there will have to be an immense  amount of data analysis before any meaningful answers are available.
 

I’m sure that there will be many doctoral theses from this unique situation. 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, scammed said:

yes, i too think its just too early to draw a final conclusion.

i'm also eagerly awaiting new year for a balance sheet

of deaths and compare to last 10 years if deaths this year was significantly different from any other year

So you think that the rise in hospitalizations is not going to result in a rise in mortality? That is an obviously invalid expectation.

[scammed]

1 hour ago, sometimewoodworker said:

I’m sure that there will be many doctoral theses from this unique situation. 

yes, but the unique about isnt corona/spanish flu/etc/etc,

the unique is a step back to serfdom/police state/war on self economy/return to peasant life

[scammed]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So you think that the rise in hospitalizations is not going to result in a rise in mortality? That is an obviously invalid expectation.

the divide percentage between significant and insignificant

is 10%, i expect insignificant

[placeholder]

Just now, scammed said:

the divide percentage between significant and insignificant

is 10%, i expect insignificant

So not proportional to the rise in hospitalizations?

[candide]

3 hours ago, scammed said:

yes, i too think its just too early to draw a final conclusion.

i'm also eagerly awaiting new year for a balance sheet

of deaths and compare to last 10 years if deaths this year was significantly different from any other year

No need to wait. There are already around 300,000 excess deaths counted so far. It is very unlikely to have minus 300,000 deaths during the next two months.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[Credo]

1 hour ago, scammed said:

yes, but the unique about isnt corona/spanish flu/etc/etc,

the unique is a step back to serfdom/police state/war on self economy/return to peasant life

Well, you might want to do a little reading about plagues and pandemics.   The Black death propelled the serfs from lowly peasants to a needed commodity.   With so many deaths, people became a valuable commodity.   They were no longer tied for life to one particular 'lord of the manor'.   If another lord paid better or provided better working conditions, they moved on to greener fields.   Although life was still tough, it never went back.

 

During this most recent pandemic, we saw who was essential and who wasn't.  Suddenly, they were valuable.   Many got hazard pay or bonuses for their effort.   So, once again, we found out that it was not the rich, the famous, the lawyers or bankers who were necessary.