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Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country


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  • Sweden's chief epidemiologist has admitted that the country is now experiencing a second wave of coronavirus despite predicting that the country's no-lockdown policy would prevent another surge.
  • Tegnell had suggested that case numbers would be "quite low" in the autumn compared to other European countries which imposed lockdowns.
  • However, the latest figures show Sweden is experiencing higher levels of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths than its neighbours, relative to population size.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-herd-immunity-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalisations-surge-2020-11

 

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

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For months, we were reading about how the second wave would be worse than the first.  Although the cases have risen substantially, the death rate certainly doesn’t seem to follow regardless of “lag ti

Even if the casedemic subsides, and nobody dies anymore, I’m sure that we will have people advocating for severe and restrictive lockdown anyways....just to be sure.  

My apologies, I think you may have missed my heavily disguised point that when the numbers are so so low that an increase in those numbers can be presented as an alarming increase hence my the use of

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33 minutes ago, placeholder said:

However, the latest figures show Sweden is experiencing higher levels of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths than its neighbours, relative to population size.

IIRC the figures have shown this more or less from the beginning... (but those inclined to support the Swedish policy have tended to explain this away in terms of factors special to Sweden, while never considering that there might be other factors special to Sweden behind that policy's apparent success).

 

But TBH many other countries would 'die for' even Sweden' recent daily death rate (<25, for a country of ~10m population).

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Just now, onebir said:

IIRC the figures have shown this more or less from the beginning... (but those inclined to support the Swedish policy have tended to explain this away in terms of factors special to Sweden, while never considering that there might be other factors special to Sweden behind that policy's apparent success).

 

But TBH many other countries would 'die for' even Sweden' recent daily death rate (<25, for a country of ~10m population).

It's early days yet. And we know the lag time is about 3 weeks. So look where Sweden was 3 weeks ago in number of cases and look where it is now and multiply accordingly. We should be expecting at least 60 deaths a day in 3 weeks. And if the number of cases keeps rising down the road it will be even more.

And you ignore the fact that it's doing worse than its neighboring states.

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16 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's early days yet. And we know the lag time is about 3 weeks. So look where Sweden was 3 weeks ago in number of cases and look where it is now and multiply accordingly. We should be expecting at least 60 deaths a day in 3 weeks. And if the number of cases keeps rising down the road it will be even more.

And you ignore the fact that it's doing worse than its neighboring states.

We'll have to come back in 3 weeks then? The demographics and other things are different in the neighbouring states, compare it to Belgium

 

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9 hours ago, Airalee said:

For months, we were reading about how the second wave would be worse than the first.  Although the cases have risen substantially, the death rate certainly doesn’t seem to follow regardless of “lag time” prognostications.  In fact, even when cases were trending upwards earlier on,  daily deaths were trending downwards and no “lag time” is apparent according to the charts.

 

Looks like we are out of the woods.

Ya sure about that?

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As of November 13, 2020, there have been 325,664 deaths in Europe overall due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) since the first recorded European death in France on February 15. November 4 was the virus' deadliest day so far in Europe with 5,470 deaths. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102288/coronavirus-deaths-development-europe/

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1 minute ago, Airalee said:

But we’re talking about Sweden.  Let’s not change the subject.  Looks like they did it right.  

 

Go Sweden!

 

 

 

 

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Do you think you're fooling me by only copying one of the graphs I posted. Are you denying that there is a lag time between cases being reported and deaths? Because deaths are rising again, aren't they?

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13 minutes ago, Airalee said:

But we’re talking about Sweden.  Let’s not change the subject.  Looks like they did it right.  

 

Go Sweden!

 

 

 

 

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How do you explain this?

COVID-19 hospitalizations soar in lockdown-free Sweden amid second wave

Coronavirus hospitalizations are surging in lockdown-eschewing Sweden as the country grapples with a second wave of the virus, data shows.

There are currently 1,004 patients being treated for the virus in the Nordic nation’s hospitals — up 60 percent from the previous week’s 627, the Guardian reported.

“We consider the situation extremely serious,” Björn Eriksson, the director of healthcare for the Stockholm region, told state media.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/12/covid-19-hospitalizations-surging-in-sweden-amid-second-wave/

 

Ya think there's no correlation between hospitalizations and deaths?

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8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Ya think there's no correlation between hospitalizations and deaths?

In most places that correlation seems to be holding up better than the cases/deaths one (which is getting distorted by increasing test volume).

 

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Are you denying that there is a lag time between cases being reported and deaths? Because deaths are rising again, aren't they?

IDK if he/she was, but looking closely at the Swedish cases & deaths charts, I wonder if the normal "cases lead deaths by ~3 weeks" relationship might be reversed there. (Sounds crazy, but if you're not doing much testing, perhaps because you think you're reaching herd immunity, you might only start to ramp up testing in response to a spike in deaths....)

 

(You seem to have misunderstood my earlier posts; I don't consider Sweden a 'good example', more be an anomaly.)

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