Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

I mask up and wash my hands obsequiously.  Why do you assume otherwise?  Because I see the positive side of the data you have posted and come to the logical conclusion that maybe....just maybe the worst is behind us?  
 

Why make false assumptions about me just because I have a positive attitude?

Right. Because the pandemic is all about you.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Western Australia

 

Total cases   783

Recovered   757

Deaths   9

 

 

Australia

 

Total cases   27,725   +14

Recovered   25,317

Deaths   907

 

 

 

 

 Sweden

 

Coronavirus Cases:

 

177,355

 

Deaths:

 

6,164

 

 

 

Australia has twice the population of Sweden

 

Actually Australia has 2.5 times the population of Sweden.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, alyx said:

Numbers indicate what one wants them to and statistics...statistics are  anything but an exact science.

We will eventually know (I hope ) what really happened but, right now, everyone is asserting a truth based on...volatile datas.

These datas include one number I am pretty interested in: deaths due to this virus opposed to the number of deaths with the virus. I am specifically talking about European countries where populations are comparable in numbers, habits etc...

Now, back to the topic, although I admit that every decision made by anyone/any government is at the same time time the right one and the wrong one ( regardless of the effects on the millions of lives affected by these decisions from the economic point of view or even on the health of some patients in need of care or surgery whose cases have been delayed to an unknown date because this virus prevails ) I am quite fond of the stand that Sweden has taken.

In summation: black is white white is black wrong is right right is wrong. If ever I wanted to cite a piece of writing as as blather, this one would be near or at the top of my list.

[Scott]

A post and replies minimizing the significance of the virus has been removed along with replies.   Continue and face a suspension.  

[oldhippy]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

 

It's easy to advocate shutting down the economy if you're retired and no longer have to worry about making a living. 

 

There's no downside for them, unlike those whose careers are derailed, possibly irreparably.  Like millions of Thai people.

 

QUOTE: There's no downside for them, unlike those whose careers are derailed, possibly irreparably

 

I see, it is US against THEM - a very popular point of view these days.....

[alyx]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

In summation: black is white white is black wrong is right right is wrong. If ever I wanted to cite a piece of writing as as blather, this one would be near or at the top of my list.

Don’t be so harsh on yourself: although you seem to be confused between can and want to, wrote the same word twice ( as as blather ), you have just made it to the top of your would be list. 

[balo]

All the people that looked to Sweden have to regret it now.  

Here in Norway we still have only 300 deaths from COVID-19 since early March . 
In Sweden last 24 hours more than 60 people are dead! 

Talk about choosing the wrong strategy and still Anders Tegnell are defending most of it. 

In Norway and Finland we just don't understand how they are thinking, and finally the Swedish politicians yesterday had to take control of the situation, so now they are closing the gyms, cinemas and other crowded places!  They even talk about closing the schools. About time , only 6 months too late! 

So far this experiment cost Sweden more than 6000 lives  






 

[oldhippy]

What Belgium (my country) and Sweden have in common is that both countries have let their old people die.

Belgium through incompetence, Sweden according to plan.

 

Of course I will never defend incompetence, but.......

 

[placeholder]

On 11/16/2020 at 11:19 AM, alyx said:

Don’t be so harsh on yourself: although you seem to be confused between can and want to, wrote the same word twice ( as as blather ), you have just made it to the top of your would be list. 

Typos and such are blather? Well, let me demonstrate to you how real blather works. Let's start with your nonsensical statement that "statistics are anything but an exact science." I've got some exciting news for you. Modern science would be impossible without the use of statistics: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_statistics

That goes even for what is reckoned to be the most exact science physics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_physics

And then there's this:

What is it that makes these numbers "volatile". What is it that you don't understand about "excess mortality"?

We will eventually know (I hope ) what really happened but, right now, everyone is asserting a truth based on...volatile datas.

These datas include one number I am pretty interested in: deaths due to this virus opposed to the number of deaths with the virus. I am specifically talking about European countries where populations are comparable in numbers, habits etc

What is it that makes these numbers "volatile". What is it that you don't understand about "excess mortality"?

 

Now, back to the topic, although I admit that every decision made by anyone/any government is at the same time time the right one and the wrong one( regardless of the effects on the millions of lives affected by these decisions from the economic point of view or even on the health of some patients in need of care or surgery whose cases have been delayed to an unknown date because this virus prevails ) 

This is the culmination of all the nonsense that's gone before. In terms of decisions made in the interests of public health there are upsides and downsides.. Wrong and right only apply if the authorities make decisions that result in the downsides outweighing the upsides.  But the fact is that in the case of Covid stricter rules are mostly upsides.   Swedish hospitals are filling up fast with Covid patients. Physicians are naturally reluctant to perform surgeries or treatments that are immunosuppresive. In fact you seem to be arguing precisely for this when you note that care and surgery are being delayed to the prevalence of the virus.

As for economic damage, how is Sweden doing compared to its neighbors?

 

Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy

• Sweden's GDP fell 8.6% during the second quarter of the year, according to its statistics body.
• The fall is sharper than its neighbors — Denmark registered a 7.4% fall, and Finland a 3.2% fall. Statistics suggest Norway also fared better than Sweden.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8

Because of their superior social welfare systems all Nordic countries did better than Europe did as a whole. But Sweden's neighbors managed to do it with a lot less fatalities. And have forestalled much of the stress that now besets Sweden. Particularly Norway and Finland which have strict rules about masking.

Anyway, once again, thanks for your masterpiece.

 

[alyx]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Typos and such are blather? Well, let me demonstrate to you how real blather works. Let's start with your nonsensical statement that "statistics are anything but an exact science." I've got some exciting news for you. Modern science would be impossible without the use of statistics: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_statistics

That goes even for what is reckoned to be the most exact science physics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_physics

And then there's this:

What is it that makes these numbers "volatile". What is it that you don't understand about "excess mortality"?

We will eventually know (I hope ) what really happened but, right now, everyone is asserting a truth based on...volatile datas.

These datas include one number I am pretty interested in: deaths due to this virus opposed to the number of deaths with the virus. I am specifically talking about European countries where populations are comparable in numbers, habits etc

What is it that makes these numbers "volatile". What is it that you don't understand about "excess mortality"?

 

Now, back to the topic, although I admit that every decision made by anyone/any government is at the same time time the right one and the wrong one( regardless of the effects on the millions of lives affected by these decisions from the economic point of view or even on the health of some patients in need of care or surgery whose cases have been delayed to an unknown date because this virus prevails ) 

This is the culmination of all the nonsense that's gone before. In terms of decisions made in the interests of public health there are upsides and downsides.. Wrong and right only apply if the authorities make decisions that result in the downsides outweighing the upsides.  But the fact is that in the case of Covid stricter rules are mostly upsides.   Swedish hospitals are filling up fast with Covid patients. Physicians are naturally reluctant to perform surgeries or treatments that are immunosuppresive. In fact you seem to be arguing precisely for this when you note that care and surgery are being delayed to the prevalence of the virus.

As for economic damage, how is Sweden doing compared to its neighbors?

 

Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy

• Sweden's GDP fell 8.6% during the second quarter of the year, according to its statistics body.
• The fall is sharper than its neighbors — Denmark registered a 7.4% fall, and Finland a 3.2% fall. Statistics suggest Norway also fared better than Sweden.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8

Because of their superior social welfare systems all Nordic countries did better than Europe did as a whole. But Sweden's neighbors managed to do it with a lot less fatalities. And have forestalled much of the stress that now besets Sweden. Particularly Norway and Finland which have strict rules about masking.

Anyway, once again, thanks for your masterpiece.

 

Well, all this would be a great piece if you / we had the exhaustive list of informations and if these informations were reputed exact. It is in that way that “Statistics”  is not an exact science: it is based on what it is fed. All your remarks and research rest in these numbers, while may be neither wrong nor manipulated, but, at the least,  incomplete/unverifiable as they stand on undefined criterion leading to a possible inaccuracy of the outcome.

Nevertheless, thank you for such a long attempt at demonstrating that Sweden is wrong but if you have read all my replies, and I trust you have as you seem quite passionate, which I am not, thank God, you would have realised that I am siding with the Swedish stand, not because of a scientific  analysis, which I deem inaccurate as we do not hold the complete data as it stands today, but because of the minimal disruption in people’s lives, opposed to, I reckon, the unfortunate number of lives taken because of this virus,, even if, as from yesterday the Swedish government took the decision to limit public gathering to 8 persons.

We might be able to get a correct approach of the effects and results on every Nation when this is, hopefully, over...but I am an optimistic.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, alyx said:

Well, all this would be a great piece if you / we had the exhaustive list of informations and if these informations were reputed exact. It is in that way that “Statistics”  is not an exact science: it is based on what it is fed. All your remarks and research rest in these numbers, while may be neither wrong nor manipulated, but, at the least,  incomplete/unverifiable as they stand on undefined criterion leading to a possible inaccuracy of the outcome.

 

Do you have any evidence at all that Sweden's public health care statistics are innaccurate or incomplete? Stop making things up.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, alyx said:

Nevertheless, thank you for such a long attempt at demonstrating that Sweden is wrong but if you have read all my replies, and I trust you have as you seem quite passionate, which I am not, thank God, you would have realised that I am siding with the Swedish stand, not because of a scientific  analysis, which I deem inaccurate as we do not hold the complete data as it stands today, but because of the minimal disruption in people’s lives, opposed to, I reckon, the unfortunate number of lives taken because of this virus,, even if, as from yesterday the Swedish government took the decision to limit public gathering to 8 persons.

We might be able to get a correct approach of the effects and results on every Nation when this is, hopefully, over...but I am an optimistic.

Did you read the subject heading? Did you bother to read the article it was linked to?

Sweden's chief epidemiologist has acknowledged the country is experiencing a second surge in coronavirus cases despite previously predicting that the number of infections in the autumn would be "quite low" because of the country's no-lockdown policy.

"In the autumn there will be a second wave," the chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, told the Financial Times back in May. "Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low."

Sweden is now back to having higher hospitalization and death rates than its neighbors and hospitalization are zooming up.

[alyx]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Do you have any evidence at all that Sweden's public health care statistics are innaccurate or incomplete? Stop making things up.

You must be reading in diagonal: my reply to this is contained in yours. I base my “siding” on the assumption we do not have all evidence in hand. Making things up would stating facts. I don’t.

Don’t get upset behind your screen as, to me it is mère exchange of thoughts.

I am not fighting for any cause nor side...just expressing what I feel...and that is not an exact Science either. Mind you, some might argue that ...I let you take it from there ????

[alyx]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Did you read the subject heading? Did you bother to read the article it was linked to?

Sweden's chief epidemiologist has acknowledged the country is experiencing a second surge in coronavirus cases despite previously predicting that the number of infections in the autumn would be "quite low" because of the country's no-lockdown policy.

"In the autumn there will be a second wave," the chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, told the Financial Times back in May. "Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low."

Sweden is now back to having higher hospitalization and death rates than its neighbors and hospitalization are zooming up.

You are quite dedicated, that honours you, but as I wrote, future will tell, maybe.

I wonder why you are so keen on defending your side. I am not in charge (luckily some might add ) 

[placeholder]

Just now, alyx said:

You must be reading in diagonal: my reply to this is contained in yours. I base my “siding” on the assumption we do not have all evidence in hand. Making things up would stating facts. I don’t.

Don’t get upset behind your screen as, to me it is mère exchange of thoughts.

I am not fighting for any cause nor side...just expressing what I feel...and that is not an exact Science either. Mind you, some might argue that ...I let you take it from there ????

And what epidemiological questions do have all evidence in hand? The preponderance of evidence is hugely in favor of the strict measures Sweden's neighbors - particularly Norway and Finland - have taken. Yours is an empty assertion. And scientific questions shouldn't be about one's feelings.

[alyx]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And what epidemiological questions do have all evidence in hand? The preponderance of evidence is hugely in favor of the strict measures Sweden's neighbors - particularly Norway and Finland - have taken. Yours is an empty assertion. And scientific questions shouldn't be about one's feelings.

Exactly. And, again, if you had read my answers, I am not analysing, therefore not trying to make a case filled with empty assertions, but just expressing what I feel. ( nope, it is not a Science but I stick to my gut until I am proven wrong: I am not stubborn: it is not an invitation to elaborate on the Sweden’ S case 555)
But I am glad you have found the opportunity to display all this and hope that has not been  too chronophage a task.

Looking forward to reading your entertaining reply. 

[FarFlungFalang]

On 11/15/2020 at 9:39 PM, placeholder said:

Do you think you're fooling me by only copying one of the graphs I posted. Are you denying that there is a lag time between cases being reported and deaths? Because deaths are rising again, aren't they?

Deaths in Sweden have quintupled in the last couple of weeks from 2 deaths to about 11 today compared to Belgium's 223 deaths or Swiss's 100 deaths so clearly a rise in deaths but not nearly as bad as some countries in the region.

 

Go Sweden!

[Airalee]

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Deaths in Sweden have quintupled in the last couple of weeks from 2 deaths to about 11 today compared to Belgium's 223 deaths or Swiss's 100 deaths so clearly a rise in deaths but not nearly as bad as some countries in the region.

 

Go Sweden!

Try not to be so negative.  Look at the bright side.

 

10 days ago Sweden was at 33 deaths a day so I guess we could potentially presume that deaths in this second wave are now falling.

 

Deaths are down by 66%!

 

But of course, if you focus on the positive and hold out hope for fewer deaths, you will be gaslighted by people with negative pessimistic attitudes and told “it’s all about you” or other random off topic insults...which doesn’t make any sense anyways.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Peter Denis]

Imo the title of this thread is misleading > Sweden has admitted its corona-virus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country

One needs only do a quick Google check on "Sweden covid" and toggle between New Cases and Deaths, to get a more balanced view of the severity of the present situation.

The peak in New Cases that Sweden is currently experiencing is NOT different than its other Nordic neighbours Norway and Denmark.

And looking at the Deaths we see a small ripple in the number of deaths, and basically the same pattern in Sweden as in Denmark and Norway.

 

It seems the pandemic has morphed into a casedemic.

I really wonder about the agenda of those that seem hell-bound on proving Sweden's approach was wrong.  I agree that it is too early to tell, but considering that Sweden did not put its population through the hardships of lockdown, mandatory masking and other 'necessary' measures to protect them from the Deadly Virus, it sure looks there are some lessons to be learned from their No Panic Approach.

 

 

[Airalee]

9 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

It seems the pandemic has morphed into a casedemic.

Even if the casedemic subsides, and nobody dies anymore, I’m sure that we will have people advocating for severe and restrictive lockdown anyways....just to be sure.  

[FarFlungFalang]

22 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Try not to be so negative.  Look at the bright side.

My apologies, I think you may have missed my heavily disguised point that when the numbers are so so low that an increase in those numbers can be presented as an alarming increase hence my the use of "quintupled" I was taking the P out of the OP.I'm not fooled by the numbers being spouted to make Sweden's situation seem worse than it is.I try to adhere to the Monty Python song "Always look on the bright side of life."

[alyx]

On 11/16/2020 at 2:49 AM, placeholder said:

Right. Because the pandemic is all about you.

Well,  @Airalee is doing his part. Why would you want everyone to look at the situation as you do ?

[balo]

The Swedish government are now suggesting to wear masks in crowded areas, like the subway, shopping malls etc.  So they are slowly following the strict guidelines we have in the other Nordic countries .
I think they are tired of all the sick people and the increase of elderly patients admitted to hospitals.   

Basically there are no differences between the Nordic countries now, it's strict everywhere.
Even teenagers been told to stay home and not go out and party.  
 

Edited November 20, 2020 by balo

[Airalee]

2 hours ago, balo said:

The Swedish government are now suggesting to wear masks in crowded areas, like the subway, shopping malls etc.  So they are slowly following the strict guidelines we have in the other Nordic countries .
I think they are tired of all the sick people and the increase of elderly patients admitted to hospitals.   

Basically there are no differences between the Nordic countries now, it's strict everywhere.
Even teenagers been told to stay home and not go out and party.  
 

Do you have a link to the new rules (suggestions)?  If people are suggested to wear masks in crowded areas, what about restaurants?  Perhaps some sort of “feed bag” would help.

 

It appears that cases and deaths are trending down.  That appears to be good news.  I suppose we will have to take a wait and see approach.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2020 by Airalee

[balo]

9 hours ago, Airalee said:

Do you have a link to the new rules (suggestions)?  If people are suggested to wear masks in crowded areas, what about restaurants?  

It's only recommended to wear a mask if you are near other people who are not belonging to your family/relatives, like within 1 meter distance.

In Norway that means elderly homes,  transportation, crowded areas like inside smaller shops . These are recommendations , not requirements.  
We'll have to wait and see if the general population in Sweden actually listen to their government. 

The closing of public swimming pools , libraries and gyms started a few days ago in cities like Malmo and Stockholm , about time. 

Links in Swedish, google translate will give you some idea. 
https://www.arbetarskydd.se/arbetsmiljo/vetenskapsakademien-gar-pa-tvars-om-munskydd-7005405

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7603904 



  

[Airalee]

23 minutes ago, balo said:

It's only recommended to wear a mask if you are near other people who are not belonging to your family/relatives, like within 1 meter distance.

In Norway that means elderly homes,  transportation, crowded areas like inside smaller shops . These are recommendations , not requirements.  
We'll have to wait and see if the general population in Sweden actually listen to their government. 

The closing of public swimming pools , libraries and gyms started a few days ago in cities like Malmo and Stockholm , about time. 

Links in Swedish, google translate will give you some idea. 
https://www.arbetarskydd.se/arbetsmiljo/vetenskapsakademien-gar-pa-tvars-om-munskydd-7005405

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7603904 



  

I hope people are “masking” up properly and not just throwing a scarf around their face.

 

They sure don’t make ‘em like they used to.

 

[Meat Pie 47]

On 11/19/2020 at 11:17 AM, Airalee said:

Even if the casedemic subsides, and nobody dies anymore, I’m sure that we will have people advocating for severe and restrictive lockdown anyways....just to be sure.  

Nobody dying anymore?

The coronavirus crisis is accelerating as the death toll continues to climb, with the virus now killing one person every eight seconds.

 

https://www.news.com.au/world/covid19-crisis-coronavirus-now-killing-one-person-every-eight-seconds/news-story/9df51a198006e97488d7aabc3871a258

[Airalee]

2 minutes ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Nobody dying anymore?

The coronavirus crisis is accelerating as the death toll continues to climb, with the virus now killing one person every eight seconds.

 

https://www.news.com.au/world/covid19-crisis-coronavirus-now-killing-one-person-every-eight-seconds/news-story/9df51a198006e97488d7aabc3871a258

Let’s try to stay on topic.  We’re discussing Sweden here.  4 people died on the 18th.  One every eight hours.

 

Heart disease is the #1 killer globally.  We should probably ban meat pies too.

[Meat Pie 47]

11 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Let’s try to stay on topic.  We’re discussing Sweden here.  4 people died on the 18th.  One every eight hours.

 

Heart disease is the #1 killer globally.  We should probably ban meat pies too.

you better stay on topic as well

[oldhippy]

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

Let’s try to stay on topic.  We’re discussing Sweden here.  4 people died on the 18th.  One every eight hours.

 

Heart disease is the #1 killer globally.  We should probably ban meat pies too.

If just 1 person in the world dies of heart disease (after being infected by a meat pie eater), I would agree with banning meat pies.