The Thai tourism new normal, learning to live with the pandemic

[rooster59]

The Thai tourism new normal, learning to live with the pandemic

by Julian Spindler

 

 

Thailand’s world-class tourism industry, one of the twin drivers of our economy, is in a deep, coronavirus-induced coma, close to death.

 

No life support is currently available. Pandemic paranoia has gripped the nation, freezing our bio-security risk management in full containment mode, meaning zero tolerance for local Covid-19 transmission. The socio-economic, and some might add political, impacts of this crisis are huge. If both direct and indirect contributions are included, tourism represents some 22 percent of GDP, according to Fitch Solutions, and as much as 25 per cent of employment.

 

The ongoing collapse of this vital pillar of the economy means massive and growing unemployment, potentially amounting to 4-6 million people, a wave of bankruptcies, both among SMEs and larger corporates, and untold misery among our huge informal workforce. These are the millions of food vendors, masseuses, taxi drivers, hotel clerks and, yes, sex workers, who together make up the vibrant and welcoming grassroots human infrastructure that last year attracted 39.8 million visitors, making Thailand the world’s 9th most visited tourist destination and Bangkok the world’s most visited city.

 

This closed-door public health security policy is not sustainable. According to the Bank of Thailand and international rating agencies there can be no recovery of our economy without a recovery of tourism, and no recovery of tourism without foreign tourists who account for at least 65-70% of the total industry.

 

To open or not to open, this is question being hotly debated in the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), and its newer economic counterpart, the Centre for Economic Situation Administration (CESA), which currently run the country. The outcome to date, the much anticipated Special Tourist Visa (STV), satisfies only the public health voices in the debate. With its 14 day quarantine requirement, many other impractical hoops, and an initial limit of 1,200 foreign visitors per month, the zero tolerance, no local transmission risk profile is being maintained.

 

If this continues, Thailand’s tourism industry will die.

 

Let’s be very clear, only a quarantine-free welcome for foreign visitors can deliver the numbers needed to resuscitate the industry. The STV will allow 40 tourists a day to enter the Kingdom; in 2019 daily arrivals averaged nearly 110,000.

 

How to open safely?

 

This is the great conundrum facing Thailand and many other countries around the world for whom travel and tourism is a major economic driver.

 

We cannot wait for vaccines. They stand no chance of eliminating the disease globally. The idea that the only way to eliminate the threat of this disease somewhere is to eliminate it everywhere is simply misleading.

 

A more realistic solution is to be found in the words of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) European Director: “The end of the pandemic is the moment that we as a community are going to learn how to live with this pandemic.”

 

Enter the tourism industry’s new normal: Learning to live with the pandemic.

 

Learning to live with Covid-19 in Thailand means accepting there might be local transmission, accepting some people might get sick. It means opening our borders again, and quarantine-free entry for foreign tourists, albeit under controlled conditions.

 

If our Prime Minister has the courage to order the CCSA to make this policy shift, from total containment to managed risk, even as Covid-19 continues to ravage countries around the world, he should understand Thailand will not be alone. Many governments and many components of the international travel and tourism value chain are already rushing to construct the infrastructure necessary to rescue the industry from a global collapse.

 

For Thailand the first step must be to undo the pandemic paranoia conditioning affecting the whole country so people understand why we have to manage the risks and how we can do this safely, without overwhelming our health care system.

 

The second step is for all Government agencies and the entire tourism industry value chain to recognise the new normal requires maximum flexibility. For the government bureaucracy this means a dramatic change of mindset, from creating barriers to easing access. For the industry, it means no cancellation fees and full refunds, every step of the traveler’s way.

 

Keeping this new mindset front and centre, one can identify two types of visitors Thailand can manage for the foreseeable future: Those who are willing to accept and pay for 14-day quarantine, and those who are not.

 

For the former, the doors should be flung wide open with minimum barriers. Why not? After all this is zero risk for our country.

 

No restrictions on countries of origin, no pre-paid accommodation requirements and Covid-19 health insurance only for the quarantine period. Digital nomads, snowbirds, returning expatriates, long-stay tourists, businessmen, medical tourists, all should be welcome. The only requirement: A certifiable negative Covid-19 test less than 72 hours prior to flying. Visas-on-arrival for as long as you want should be the order of the day, even year-long-stay visas with a work permit, for a modest sum, say US$1,000.

 

This new welcoming mindset would generate a small but useful and humane increase in essentially risk-free arrivals so it must be accompanied by a rapid increase in Alternative State Quarantine (ASQ) accommodation throughout the country and in airlift capacity. Simplifying entry requirements would also largely obviate the inter-agency bickering that has bedevilled the STV to date.

Making it even more welcoming, for those who can prove they already have homes here, would be the self-quarantine option, as currently practised in Hong Kong. On arrival, visitors are given another rapid Covid-19 test and if negative, equipped with a GPS tracking wristband and escorted to their registered place of residence, where they remain for 14 days. The tracking devices are monitored to make sure visitors don’t stray.

 

However, STV arrivals alone will not save our tourism industry; only quarantine-free entry will.

 

Here’s how it can work, safely:

 

Enter the much maligned “travel bubble”, quarantine-free travel from countries and areas with low Covid-19 transmission rates to, at first, designated areas in Thailand that aim to be virus free.

 

Travel bubbles require close, multi-agency cooperation and coordination at both ends. They aim to be bi-lateral, reciprocal agreements. This is why it is so vitally important that our twin Covid-19 nerve centres, and the Cabinet, make a formal decision to open quarantine-free travel in principle as soon as possible, so all the criteria and arrangements can move forward quickly.

Looking at the Thai end of the travel tunnel first, we need to select leading tourist destinations where access can be controlled. Initially that might mean Pattaya, Hua Hin, Phuket, Samui and nearby islands, and Koh Samet.

 

For these areas the CCSA should instruct the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) to undertake systematic, large-scale surveillance testing and tracking to cover all residents and migrant workers who are likely to come into contact with tourists. All those tested will be given a health status and tracking app, which will be updated as regular testing continues. Eventually the app will also record vaccination status.

 

Responding to epidemiologists’ war cry that testing, testing and more testing is the key to living safely with the pandemic, large-scale testing would represent a major policy change for the MOPH. To date, Thailand has had a very low rate of testing, even lower than poorer countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. This must change if we are to open travel bubbles safely.

 

While these preparations are being undertaken for destinations where access is easily controllable, the CCSA and CESA should be working with all relevant agencies to assess the viability of opening additional travel bubbles to other key destinations as quickly as possible.

 

At the same time Safety and Health Administration (SHA) standard certification must be accelerated to cover virtually all facilities in the travel bubble destinations.

 

The aim is to reassure foreign visitors of these destinations’ near virus-free status during their stay, a claim which should be underlined by offering free Covid-19 health insurance for the duration of their stay. The CCSA and CESA should also start to develop the new more sustainable tourist ecosystems that meet the public health requirements needed to manage the Covid-19 risks in the longer term.

 

The next step is deciding which countries, and in some cases like China, which regions or cities, we will link up with.

 

These decisions must be data-driven, not withstanding diplomatic preferences, so as to allow a high degree of automaticity. As Covid-19 infection rates change around the world so will our allowable travel bubbles.

 

To manage epidemiological risk, the criteria and thresholds for identifying our travel bubble partners must be clearly defined. Thailand could adopt an approach similar to that being developed for the EU where the travel and tourism sector is screaming for harmonised travel regulations.

 

Published two months ago, the industry’s European Tourism Manifesto urges the EU to replace the need for quarantine with comprehensive, cost-effective testing and tracing, to avoid blanket restrictions by using more granulated data to better target specific areas, to not impose restrictions on passengers in transit, and to ensure the interoperability of contact tracing apps.

 

For Thailand to consider, the current European Commission criteria and thresholds dictate countries should not restrict travel from other countries with fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days, and a test positivity rate of less than three per cent provided the weekly testing rate exceeds 250 tests per 100,000 people. There are other criteria that could be considered, and thresholds can be adjusted, but this will be for Thailand’s epidemiologists to decide, once the political decision to open our borders for quarantine-free travel has been made.

 

Now that we have the tools to select, on a risk-managed basis, our travel bubble partners, we need to accurately monitor the health status of the individual tourists from these countries.

 

One possible tool is already a work-in-progress with at least 40 countries collaborating to launch Common Pass, a standard global framework enabling people to document and present their Covid-19 status, in a way that participating governments can verify, to facilitate safe border crossings while protecting individual data privacy, in effect a Covid-19 passport.

 

Common Pass, currently being tested internally on flights between London and New York, and Hong Kong and Singapore, is being developed by The Commons Project, a Swiss not-for-profit, in partnership with the World Economic Forum.

 

Common Pass aims to answer four questions that are vital for managing epidemiological risk with quarantine-free travel when our only protection is a very recent negative Covid-19 test. These are…

 

• How can a lab test result or vaccination record from another country be trusted?

 

• Is the lab or vaccination facility accredited?

 

• How do we confirm the person who took the test, or received the vaccination, is indeed the person who is traveling?

 

• Does the traveler meet border entry requirements?

 

Thailand is not currently participating in Common Pass. We should be. Each participating country needs to decide two things:

 

Which centres for Covid-19 tests, and vaccinations, are deemed credible in their country, and their own border entry requirements. After the individual foreign traveler inputs their test results, the app will do the rest and when presented to airlines or border controls will show if the bearer is fit to enter.

 

Common Pass expects to become fully operational in early 2021. Until then, with no standard certifiable system for Covid-19 tests in place, we might decide to deploy the rapid 15-minute antigen tests that are coming onto the market at our airports as additional protection against less than reliable foreign test results.

 

Meanwhile, our multi-agency Tourism Recovery Team should be very busy negotiating travel bubbles with individual countries that currently meet our epidemiological criteria for quarantine-free entry. Given bureaucratic inertia, this will be a time consuming exercise but it is the only path to tourism survival.

 

We have already engaged with China for the STV. Now, we would do well to open discussions with Singapore, and learn from Singapore, as it has ASEAN’s most proactive policies for reopening international travel, including quarantine-free entry for travellers from Brunei and New Zealand since September 1. With hard work and goodwill on both sides we could hope to see Singaporean tourists arriving before the end of the year.

 

When Covid-19 started to spread across an unprepared world early this year, Bangkok and Thailand both ranked number one in terms of anticipated impact severity. The first case of the virus outside China was recorded here, and during the first three months, before the lockdown, nearly three million Chinese tourists visited. But our world-class public health security system, ranked sixth in the world prior to the pandemic, and the willingness of the Thai people to put community first, enabled us to manage the potential disaster to the point where today Thailand is regarded as an outstanding example of successful pandemic management.

 

We have now had six months to further strengthen our public health capacities across the board. It is time for the government to leverage this world-class public health security ecosystem and save our world-class tourism industry and the many millions of citizens who depend on it.

 

Julian Spindler is a strategic communications consultant and long-time resident of Thailand. Since arriving in Thailand in 1969, Julian has worked as a journalist, editor, publisher and strategic communications consultant. Today he specialises in sustainability issues, crisis communications and strategic planning.

 

Source: https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/the-thai-tourism-new-normal-learning-to-live-with-the-pandemic

 

-- © Copyright The Thaiger 2020-11-22

 

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[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

The ongoing collapse of this vital pillar of the economy means massive and growing unemployment, potentially amounting to 4-6 million people, a wave of bankruptcies, both among SMEs and larger corporates, and untold misery among our huge informal workforce. These are the millions of food vendors, masseuses, taxi drivers, hotel clerks and, yes, sex workers, who together make up the vibrant and welcoming grassroots human infrastructure that last year attracted 39.8 million visitors, making Thailand the world’s 9th most visited tourist destination and Bangkok the world’s most visited city.

Yet with the economy still suffering the Thai currency is still on drugs and getting higher and higher.  It must be all the repatriated millions of USD the Thai's are bringing home, and then the Gold being sold and exported across the seas, filling the elites pockets more and more.  China just entered the negative interest rate zone, as well as many countries.  Thailand has yet to utilize its reserves to bail out the people and help the tourism sector instead relying on loans from abroad.  It is because of this they are more than likely able to keep the baht afloat and could care less about the people on the bigger scale.  But then I am not an economist, and instead rely on what I am reading in the news and in the worlds financial markets. It seems that Thailand is scared of a repeat of history if they try and utilize the money they have, or maybe they are just trying to protect the Amart as well as this current government who has pilfered billions which should have gone to the people.

 

Why do they keep insisting that tourism is the cash cow, when apparently it is not, yet they keep writing article espousing how it is the primary driver of the economy.  It gets so confusing to keep reading this drivel. 

[YetAnother]

14 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Thailand’s world-class tourism industry, one of the twin drivers of our economy, is in a deep, coronavirus-induced coma, close to death

a thoughtful , relatively complete expose; the length of the discussion however (a high grade length) means that thailand's government wont get this right; if it takes that long to correctly describe the issue then thailand , which , let's face it , doesnt get much right , cannot get this right

[MasterBaker]

this guy is delusional, opening country which didn't go through the second wave of Covid yet for the sake of 1000 tourists a day... few countries did that and now in lockdown. Does anyone asked if people want to travel? Do you want to go to China or New Zealand?

[Jack Mountain]

Why give up while we are more then half way to the end? Just wait for the vaccin!

[Rancid]

Thailand is just one of many countries that has been conned to kill its economy in fear of a nasty flu. I don't know what the end game is, whether big resets or just pharma companies banking billions, but as in all things, the well connected are either not affected or benefiting from the carnage. As always the working and middle classes shoulder the burden.

[Bluetongue]

The key word for me was courage. The PM was supposed to have it before anything would happen. That's why we are waiting, the other things would fall into place.

[potless]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

. But our world-class public health security system, ranked sixth in the world prior to the pandemic, 

I remember this being mentioned earlier this year. Countries best placed to deal with a pandemic. Ranked number 1, the USA. Ranked number 2, the UK. 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Thailand’s world-class tourism industry, one of the twin drivers of our economy, is in a deep, coronavirus-induced coma, close to death.

 

[jollyhangmon]

17 minutes ago, potless said:

I remember this being mentioned earlier this year. Countries best placed to deal with a pandemic. Ranked number 1, the USA. Ranked number 2, the UK. 

 

... 555, yeah, that's a howler ... maybe they indeed were, prior to 'some' utterly inept politicos botching up the respective jobs, and tremenduosly so ...

 

You don't happen to have a link to that shtick, do you? Can't locate it & would like to re-read but by now would also need bookmarks within my bookmarks, apparently ... 

 

[ourmanflint]

Government instigated pandemic paranoia about sums up the current situation in Thailand. There is no way out of the mess they created

Edited November 22, 2020 by ourmanflint

[Kadilo]

Excellent well thought out article which highlights Thailand’s plight and the amount of work they need to do to prepare for any future opening of International Tourism with any real increase in numbers. 
 

Moreover it will take a change in attitude, desire and direction from the top to discuss and implement the changes required. 
 

Will they be willing to do this? Doubtful. They seem to be banking on the vaccine as their miracle cure. My guess they will just carry on the way they are whilst the unemployment numbers increase and recessions hits even harder until such time. 

 

 

[natway09]

Beautifully written if not a bit delusional if not wishful thinking.

The writer needs to have a closer look at countries that are totally overwhelmed in all areas due to doing exactly what he proposes.

His argument on letting tourists just flood to Thailand as it is Covid free suggests that he should take more water with it.

Yes, the tourist industry & supporting businesses on the ropes ( I am one)

The staff & ex staff my heart bleeds for along with small owners.

The large Hotel conglomerates I do not have a lot of sympathy for as their greed (along with condo developers ) have well outpaced demand & they knew it

My short answer

To open up the country ad hoc without quarantine at this time is tantamount to risking the 

other many businesses alive, well, employing staff  (they still have over 2mil vacancies) exporting 

& contributing a figure about 88% of last years GDP,

Exports look like being better  than 85% of last year but before moaning about that, have a look at the actual figures in dollar terms, Huge for a country of this size. 

Swallow the bitter pill for another 4 months,,,, I think will allow for a much quicker, life saving,

recovery for everybody

 

[Flying Saucage]

Very good and comprehensive article with a lot of ideas how to ease the economic hardship of the country by a allowing a recovery of its tourism industry.

 

Even if the Thai authorities would follow this very advisable way, during the forseeable future quite few tourists would come anyway. But at least it would be a good start, while the health risks for the country would stay neglectable in any aspect, for several reasons.

 

But, all these advices are likely far too complex for the power that be,  and they would be far beyond their attention span if one would like to explain it to them. They don't like sensible approaches anyway. They prefer brutal answers to everything they see as a problem. The  merciless fending off of foreign tourists and visitors is such a brutal answer.

 

And, the powers that be don't care about casualties. Neither do they care about economic casualties resulting from their brutal approach to kill the tourism industry, nor do they care about human casualties. Proof to the latter is their complete lack of any efforts to reduce the carnage on Thailands roads and its daily 70 deaths. Anyone who believes that this governments reaction to the crisis mainly has to do with the saving of lives, rather than political and selfish motives is naive. 

 

 

 

[ChipButty]

I dont have the answer but what i do know here on the ground in Phuket people are hurting they are coming to the end of the line how much longer can they survive? I know many people involved in the tourism industry one way or the other right down to the electrician or gardeners and cleaners, Right now they are all saying the same they have to open up some I speak to are starting to ask questions is this for real, Im just a farang living in your country It doesn't matter what I say.

Even Bangkok, My friend and his family their dream is on hold, a couple of years ago they had made enough money to buy a small plot of land and build their own house but now the money they had saved to start building they are having to live on it as their business went down, they moved back to their parents home and stop paying rent, Hopefully their dream will come true one day.

[John Drake]

I doubt that very many Thais think of a guy named Julian Spindler as one of "us" or "we."

[Curmudgeonly59]

Coherent, balanced and timely article.  Let's see more like it on Thai Visa...????

[Jack Mountain]

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

I doubt that very many Thais think of a guy named Julian Spindler as one of "us" or "we."

Julian Spindler is a strategic communications consultant and long-time resident of Thailand. Since arriving in Thailand in 1969, Julian has worked as a journalist, editor, publisher and strategic communications consultant. Today he specialises in sustainability issues, crisis communications and strategic planning.

Source: Thaiger.

 

 

[John Drake]

5 minutes ago, Jack Mountain said:

Julian Spindler is a strategic communications consultant and long-time resident of Thailand. Since arriving in Thailand in 1969, Julian has worked as a journalist, editor, publisher and strategic communications consultant. Today he specialises in sustainability issues, crisis communications and strategic planning.

Source: Thaiger.

 

 

 

I saw that. I just don't see how any of it makes him one of them. Unless he has Thai citizenship or PR (which he well might, although that isn't noted), he isn't an "us" or a "we." He's just another tourist on a visa extension like the rest of us.

Edited November 22, 2020 by John Drake

[Jack Mountain]

3 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

So?

Resident since 1969, that's about 51 years (saves you the math). So longer in Thailand then most of the Thais ...

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Jack Mountain

[John Drake]

Just now, Jack Mountain said:

Resident since 1969, that's about 51 years (saves you the math). So longer in Thailand then most of the Thais ...

 

 

See my edited reply. I simply doubt that if he were here for even 100 years he would still not be one of "them," as he seems to think he is.

[Natai Beach]

2 hours ago, natway09 said:

Beautifully written if not a bit delusional if not wishful thinking.

The writer needs to have a closer look at countries that are totally overwhelmed in all areas due to doing exactly what he proposes.

His argument on letting tourists just flood to Thailand as it is Covid free suggests that he should take more water with it.

Yes, the tourist industry & supporting businesses on the ropes ( I am one)

The staff & ex staff my heart bleeds for along with small owners.

The large Hotel conglomerates I do not have a lot of sympathy for as their greed (along with condo developers ) have well outpaced demand & they knew it

My short answer

To open up the country ad hoc without quarantine at this time is tantamount to risking the 

other many businesses alive, well, employing staff  (they still have over 2mil vacancies) exporting 

& contributing a figure about 88% of last years GDP,

Exports look like being better  than 85% of last year but before moaning about that, have a look at the actual figures in dollar terms, Huge for a country of this size. 

Swallow the bitter pill for another 4 months,,,, I think will allow for a much quicker, life saving,

recovery for everybody

 

Spot on.

 

The covid crisis is getting rapidly worse. Daily deaths hit 11,000 for the first time this week and new infections 600,000+. 
 

Letting tourists in now would open the infection floodgates and a month later it would all have to be closed down again with the added problem of covid killing locals. Pointless and reckless.
 

Thailand will bounce back quicker than most countries with their good reputation for handling the virus and because they haven’t plunged themselves into massive debts like other countries. Trade surplus kicking along nicely. 

[herfiehandbag]

It is a well argued article.

 

Unfortunately it does not address the key component in any plan which this government may be persuaded to consider.

 

What provision is there for such a restart of the tourist industry to generate a large and immediate cash income for the select few "of influence" who are close to the levers of power?

 

Without such provisions, there is no incentive for this government to act.  

[pokerface1]

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Responding to epidemiologists’ war cry that testing, testing and more testing is the key to living safely with the pandemic, large-scale testing would represent a major policy change for the MOPH. To date, Thailand has had a very low rate of testing, even lower than poorer countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. This must change if we are to open travel bubbles safely.

 

Mass testing should be done now before Thailand does anything else to easy the regulations and quarantine stay. We real don't know how wide spread the virus is within Thailand. But we do know that the authorities are avoiding any negatives that effect the countries image. Tourists are not stupid they don't want to end up catching Covid while in Thailand and that is also another significant reason to avoid the unknown risk of Thailand.

[GeorgeCross]

i remember march this year. everything except markets and supermarkets closed. no alcohol for sale, schools closed, 10pm curfew, checkpoints, 20K fines for masks but most importantly

 

NO ONE WORKING

 

tourism or otherwise.

 

personally i dont want that again.

 

why does this writer think this time will be any different? did the virus change?

 

 

 

[sammieuk1]

If our Prime Minister has the courage to order the CCSA to make this policy shift, from total containment to managed risk 

 

 Will require a backbone first .There are bound to be a 1001 caveats and unlimited fleecing when you have already received a vaccine and because it's not Thai administered one it will be rendered useless for the purpose of entry you can see this coming Guaranteed ????

Edited November 22, 2020 by sammieuk1

[GinBoy2]

There is absolutely no clear answer to this, as the entire world grapples with this.

 

Open the country to external tourism and risk importing it. I would suggest that if that happened the Thai medical infrastructure would collapse with infection rates seen in Europe and the US.

 

But then you have the equally human tragedy of those businesses that fold and the untold numbers thrown out of work, and as a side note I believe little to nothing of Thai Government figures on unemployment even in the good times, if they don't open!

 

But then think of the supply side. Folks are hunkered down until this subsides.

 

Yes maybe there are the diehards, typically single older men, that would come regardless. But families? Regardless of any financial hardships they aren't gonna risk it.

 

I've said in other threads, I work for an airline, and even domestic 1-2 hour flights are seeing load factors of ~50%, way down from normal, although up from the horrors of earlier this year.

 

So you think that reluctance to get on a domestic flight translates into a surge of international travel?

 

Dream On 

[Jack Mountain]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

See my edited reply. I simply doubt that if he were here for even 100 years he would still not be one of "them," as he seems to think he is.

Is it published somewhere in the Thai language anyway?

[ThailandRyan]

If mass testing is not completed on a from now until the cows come home basis here in Thailand, then should a spread of the virus appear and they have opened up for the limited tourism they are doing then they will be able to blame all of those others for bringing the virus in as spreaders even if they tested negative.  They have already set the groundwork with the last few that tested positive after they had cleared quarantine, or had been here , and then returned home where they then tested positive upon their return.  They are just waiting to blame the world when their universe called Thailand collapses in a cloud of virus spread.

[nong38]

I have yet to see any plan anywhere in how we get out this mess.

No Government anywhere has ever defeated a virus, at best they learn to live with it.

Lockdowns and quarantines dont work, they just push the problem down the line.

Governments have taken the people's common sense away and forced draconian rules upon them, in effect taken away their freedoms and they may not get them back in full now.

The majority of Governments have followed the science and followed it for 7 or 8 months and their predictions have not proved to be correct. If these scientific experts had been in the football industry they would have been sacked for poor results and yet the powers that be still follow them.

History has shown and will show that we have to learn to live with this virus, weigh up the risks we take and get on with the life we have, the one life we will have.