webfact Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Krungsri Research raises 2020 growth forecast by almost 4 percentage points By The Nation Krungsri Research’s chief economist Somprawin Manprasert Exports are driving the gradual recovery of Thailand’s economy, says Krungsri Research, but it warns that foreign tourists will not return in the large numbers of previous years. The research house has raised its 2020 GDP forecast to contraction of 6.4 per cent from 10.3 per cent. It projects 2021 growth at 3.3 per cent, citing both challenges and opportunities ahead. The upward revision for 2020 reflects better-than-expected third quarter GDP data, accelerating public spending, and stronger merchandise exports, Krungsri Research’s chief economist Somprawin Manprasert said on Wednesday. Thailand’s economic growth is expected to turn positive from the second quarter of 2021, supported by the low-base effect, government spending and a cyclical rebound of external demand. “We see challenges ahead with domestic headwinds. Tourism recovery is lagging behind other economic growth drivers, leaving large excess capacity in several services sectors. Job losses will continue to weigh on income and consumer spending,” Somprawin said. Domestic political unrest could undermine economic growth and trigger concern over continuity of policy. Historically, political disruption reduces growth by 0.6 to 1 percentage point, he said. However, exports will become an engine of growth, with private investment in export-related sectors expected to improve moderately. Economic opportunities will also arise from growing regionalisation, which could support Thai exports and domestic production in the medium term, he said. Meanwhile new US policy under Joe Biden’s administration would only slightly benefit Thailand, as the US would maintain trade protectionism, according to Krungsri Research. Krungsri Research’s key revisions: • Foreign tourist arrivals to decline to 4 million in 2021 from 6.7 million in 2020. • 2020 private consumption forecast raised from -4.2 per cent to -1.1 per cent. Growth of 2.5 per cent expected in 2021. • 2020 exports forecast raised from -12.5 per cent to -7.5 per cent, and 2021 exports forecast to expand 4.5 per cent.. • 2020 private investment forecast raised to -11 per cent. Forecast of 3.2 per cent growth in 2021. • 2020 public investment forecast growth of 12.5 per cent, followed by 10.5 per cent in 2021. Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30398560 -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-11-26 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 hours ago, webfact said: Thailand’s economic growth is expected to turn positive from the second quarter of 2021, supported by the low-base effect, government spending and a cyclical rebound of external demand. i can't say I know a huge amount about economics , but forecasting export growth - again - in a year of yet MORE thai baht appreciation seems nuts to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 6 hours ago, webfact said: Exports are driving the gradual recovery of Thailand’s economy, says Krungsri Research, but it warns that foreign tourists will not return in the large numbers of previous years. What foresight, I wonder if they factored in the forever strong baht crippling exports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali farong Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 I think when those in the tourist industry see a 2021 prediction of only 4 million tourists there will be quite a rise in suicide. Lose business, lose car, lose condo, lose face. Doesn’t affect anyone in government so they don’t care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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