Entrance to Thailand without quarrantine

[zzzzz]

1 hour ago, Thaijack2014 said:

If you think that, you haven't been listening to the news. There are people who have been infected twice. 

so true<

 

OK   My $05 worth

as to the vaccine, once you get it, you cant catch it, ( hence the reason to be vaccinated)  if you cant catch it, you can transmit it

so it goes to that if ur vaccinated, your covid free an there is zero reason to quarantine .

 

So logic, ( yea wishful thinking) is once ur vaccinated you should be able to fly ( Qantas has already said you will need to be vaccinated to fly on their airline).  So if others adapt this as well.........

 

It wont be mandatory  anywhere.,  NO government has that power

BUT if you want to travel,  you will need the shot..

NOW , so far Nobody knows how long the vaccination lasts>>
 

Question;

are all vaccines equal?  would you trust one more or less made in china vs the USA?

 

[condobrit001]

A vaccine which has a 95% effectivity is rare in the history of medicine. If such a vaccine is mandated for the whole population of a country and its visitors it will reduce the pandemic to  a mere annoyance or wipe it out completely. Of course on-going efforts are required to deal with any mutations which may appear during this period. So if this vaccine does what it says on the bottle we can look forward to being Covid free in the time it takes to vaccinate the whole population plus a couple of months. This should be realistically be possible by the end of 2021 or mid 2022. Be patient, the end is in sight.

[DrJack54]

6 minutes ago, condobrit001 said:

If such a vaccine is mandated for the whole population of a country and its visitors it will reduce the pandemic to  a mere annoyance or wipe it out completely.

"mandated"....say what.

Good luck with that in places such as USA where approx half the population (via poll) state they will not take the covid vaccine.

[renz]

On 11/28/2020 at 12:57 PM, VIPinLanna said:

It is a serious question and I have been following the RTE site closely. Going to hotel, ventilation situation unknown, orrisome than staying home. In the US the Pfizer vaccine is now being shipped in large quantities according to news reports. Assume that one is to be available hope it is accepted by Thai customs and immigration, coming in. I have a yellow vaccination card my MD initials.

way too early to ask this question as no govt in the wrld has yet to do public vaccination and be able to follow the outcome and result of the vaccine. earliest to speculate would be at march to april - even qantas requirement is not the australian official stand on it. suggest you wait it out since you are in the high risk. getting you vaccinated wherever you are from doesn't mean the govt here accept that vaccination and you won't be place under quarantine upon entry - you will have to wait for the official govt announcement 

[condobrit001]

38 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

"mandated"....say what.

Good luck with that in places such as USA where approx half the population (via poll) state they will not take the covid vaccine.

Then I guess those people will not be visiting Thailand.

[NoshowJones]

4 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

It is possible (but by no means sure) that they will reconsider this once other countries have vaccinated significant numbers of people.  At this point the issue is still academic.

 

They are going to take a huge financial hit due to loss of tourists this high season.

 

Could possibly accept proof of vaccination plus proof of antibodies (similar to what some  European countries do regarding pets and rabies). With or without also proof of negative antigen test.

 

But it all remains to be seen.

 

What I think is certain is that any quarantine that may be required will continue to be at a designated facility and not at home.

"They are going to take a huge financial hit due to loss of tourists this high season." That is true without a doubt, but I think we all know who won't be taking any financial hits at all.

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

"mandated"....say what.

Good luck with that in places such as USA where approx half the population (via poll) state they will not take the covid vaccine.

Their choice, and they will need to accept whatever consequences/negatives re travel etc., come with their decision. 

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, condobrit001 said:

Then I guess those people will not be visiting Thailand.

And if they want people to respect their beliefs they will need to totally respect the beliefs of the people who believe in vaccinations, masks, distancing, etc.  

[Inala]

To know what will happen in the future, one must look to the past.

 

In the case of pandemics, a look back at history shows us that all pandemics come to an end. The most common theme of what it takes for them to end is for a very large proportion of the population needs to become infected and thereby develop immunity. Although, not everyone needs to be infected (or vaccinated) as it is a fact that not everyone will become sick from a virus, with many people naturally immune to some infections for reasons not yet fully understood.

 

The Justinian Plague killed half of the world's population, leaving only those behind who had a natural or developed immunity. The Black Death and Great Plague(s) did the same, killing hundreds of millions. Although there was no understanding at the time of what was happening at the micro-biological level, public health officials slowly began to understand the principles of isolation. Thus it was that during the Black Death that the quarantine process was first deployed and later in the last of the Great Plagues, extreme isolation measures were used. Ultimately those measures were instrumental in bringing the plague to an end.

 

In more modern times, the new pandemic age started with the Russian Flu [1889-90] which killed 1 million plus out of a population of 1.5 billion and took roughly a year to run its course before fading away. The H1N1 Spanish flu [March 1918 to October 1920] killed between 25 and 50 million people after infecting 500 million (or~30%) of the world's then 1.8 billion population. It became benign almost overnight, although it continued as the main influenza virus until the 1950s, and its descendants are still circulating in the human population. What made this virus such a threat in 1918-20 is that it was novel (as is COVID-19) and people had little immunity. The H2N2 Asian flu [1957–1958] emerged in China, lasted a year and killed up to 1.1 million people.  There was very little media interest in the pandemic at the time and almost no social distancing, instead, the virus was allowed to run its course. The subsequent H3N2 Hong Kong Flu [1968-70] was also left largely unchecked to run its course, killing between 1 - 4 million people over a 2 year period. Whilst it ran for longer, it was much milder since many people already had immunity from the Asian flu a decade earlier.

 

There were also the SARS [2002-3] H1N1 Swine Flu [2009] and MERS [2012-14] outbreaks, all of which were much deadlier than COVID-19 and for this very reason, much easier to contain. It was their mortality rate and short incubation periods that allowed them to be so effectively controlled. 

 

COVID-19 is a novel virus, thus there is little existing immunity in the community which is leading to the high reproduction rate. The current system of lockdowns around the world is slowing the infection rate which, in the event an effective vaccine is not found, will probably only serve to prolong the pandemic’s duration, since history tells us that a significant portion of the population must be infected to diminish the viruses’ ability to find new hosts. This could take up to a decade longer if the lockdown strategies persist.

 

If an effective vaccine is found, this, along with a magic number of people having been infected, will bring the pandemic to an end much earlier, maybe even by the end of 2021.

 

Another way it may end is through genetic mutation, which generally means a lowering of lethality.

 

So it can be seen that all pandemics do in fact come to an end. Through achieving herd immunity, the development of a vaccine or through genetic mutation. But, take heart, they do end!!

  

So from reading through the net on a lazy Sunday afternoon, there's my opinion on when entry to Thailand will be possible without quarantine. Either late in 2021 with an effective vaccine or possibly not for many years to come if we can't otherwise achieve a level of community immunity.  

[Albert Zweistein]

11 hours ago, scorecard said:

As said, a paper based vaccination card/certificate is not definitely not acceptable.

 

The WHO has already mentioned that a personal digital vaccination bracelet or similar is already in development, which could be checked very easily/very quickly against an always up to date global database. 

 

If it happens and it's issued on the spot then hopefully Thailand might accept this for folks from countries doing well with infection, vaccinations etc., (E.g: New Zealand, Australia, Singapore coming soon and more).

 

Further, there is continuing  strong pressure on the Thai government to reduce/cancel quarantine and other factors to rebuild tourism, create large numbers of jobs etc. Won't take long for travel/tourism/hospitality organizations to use the concept/fact of 'vaccination bracelet (or whatever it is) to pressure the government to open up the country to those vaccinated.

Are New Zealand, Australia and Singapore doing well with vaccinations ?

[DrJack54]

21 minutes ago, Inala said:

So from reading through the net on a lazy Sunday afternoon, there's my opinion on when entry to Thailand will be possible without quarantine. Either late in 2021 with an effective vaccine or possibly not for many years to come if we can't otherwise achieve a level of community immunity

Lovely cut and paste. Good job.

[Inala]

9 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Lovely cut and paste. Good job.

 

Thanks, I thought I did good as well. But just a correction, it's not cut and paste, it's old fashioned research. Done to answer the question raised by the OP (and many others)

 

The conclusions are mine. What did you think of the timelines I offered?   

[GroveHillWanderer]

42 minutes ago, Inala said:

There were also the SARS [2002-3] H1N1 Swine Flu [2009] and MERS [2012-14] outbreaks, all of which were much deadlier than COVID-19 and for this very reason, much easier to contain. It was their mortality rate and short incubation periods that allowed them to be so effectively controlled. 

I'm not sure what you're on about there. You can't lump SARS and MERS together. SARS has indeed totally disappeared but MERS most decidedly has not; nor has it really been "controlled." It has proved to be self-limiting and has still never really spread beyond its original breeding ground in the middle east but it has never disappeared, and in fact has continued at roughly the same rate since an earlier, slightly higher rate in its first two years.

 

It also remains just as lethal as it when in first emerged, with virtually no change in the fatality rate. Here's a graph showing the fairly steady rate of infections (after the two initial peak years) right up to the present day.

 

[DrJack54]

15 minutes ago, Inala said:

 

Thanks, I thought I did good as well. But just a correction, it's not cut and paste, it's old fashioned research. Done to answer the question raised by the OP (and many others)

 

The conclusions are mine. What did you think of the timelines I offered?   

Pretty much rubbish. 

 

[Inala]

33 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Pretty much rubbish. 

 

ha ha, fair enough. But I stand firmly by two of my three conclusions-

 

One - Pandemics always end one way or another. As this one will.

Two - late 2021 will see out this virus, if a vaccine is developed.

 

My third, being the potential decade long period to reach levels of immunity in the community to kill off the virus was of course a little subjective, but, still based on what happened in the past.

[DrJack54]

16 minutes ago, Inala said:

Two - late 2021 will see out this virus, if a vaccine is developed.

I won't go further with this chit chat. Even IF effective vaccine is rolled out. Countries such as USA have indicated perhaps a 50% intention to have the vaccine.

[runamok27]

2 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

I won't go further with this chit chat. Even IF effective vaccine is rolled out. Countries such as USA have indicated perhaps a 50% intention to have the vaccine.

The experts have already stated that you only need 65% to 70% of the population to be vaccinated to get the desired effect. While it would be better if 100% of the population gets vaccinated, it is not necessary. You also need to look at the reasoning of those folks who won't take the vaccine. A very tiny percentage of those people are actual anti-vaccers, most of them would just like to see it rolled out to some folks to make them feel more confident there are no bad side effects. Another large groups of folks don't want to take the mRNA vaccines but there are plenty of traditional vaccines on the way for them to take. Just a guess but by summer 2021, 80% of Americans will be vaccinated.

[Phillip9]

2 hours ago, Inala said:

One - Pandemics always end one way or another.

Simply untrue that all pandemics must end and the virus will just go away.  The aids pandemic has continued for decades.  Malaria for centuries.  Both still kill nearly a million people a year.  Before vaccines, small pox, yellow fever, and polio plagued humans repeatedly for centuries.

[Phillip9]

2 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Countries such as USA have indicated perhaps a 50% intention to have the vaccine.

I think a lot of those people will change their mind when they realize they will need to be vaccinated if they want to travel anywhere, or to get a new job.

[richard_smith237]

24 minutes ago, Phillip9 said:

I think a lot of those people will change their mind when they realize they will need to be vaccinated if they want to travel anywhere, or to get a new job.

 

With great 'keyboard bravado' I announced that I have no intention of taking a Vaccine which I feel has been rushed through testing and production and sent to developing nations to be re-produced. A vaccine for which any long term impact (*or impact beyond 6 months) is as yet completely unknown. 

 

I know my resolve will change completely when / if I have to take vaccine for work which ultimately means taking a vaccine to keep my job. 

 

I had to take a Yellow Fever Vaccination and carry the ‘Yellow card’ and have happily had all my other vaccines.

 

I didn’t take Anti-Malaria medication while working up in Assam where it was recommended. I figured the side effects outweighed the risks. I was fastidious about ensuring I wasn’t bitten, long sleeve clothes, sprays etc... In total I was bitten 4 times in 2 months while there.  

 

I’m not so comfortable with the Covid-19 vaccine and would like to at least delay my family from taking it. 

 

 

[shdmn]

1 hour ago, runamok27 said:

Just a guess but by summer 2021, 80% of Americans will be vaccinated.

The studies I have seen suggest only about 60% of people will get it for various reasons.  That will probably take at least a year to get to that point.  But that should be enough to stop the spread.  I think summer 2021 is maybe too optimistic considering the average person probably won't be able to get it until at least March.

[scorecard]

9 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Are New Zealand, Australia and Singapore doing well with vaccinations ?

I don't know about NZ or S'pore but there's lots of comments from the Aust. PM, Aust. Health Minister etc., re the vaccine/approvals, contracts etc. But inconsistency regarding supply dates, and so far no inoculations.  

 

Some agencies keep saying late 2021 for inoculations, others mention as early as March 2021. Right now wait and see, and I hope they start soon to get consistency in their various statements and hope inoculations will start very early 2021. 

[jacko45k]

16 hours ago, zzzzz said:

as to the vaccine, once you get it, you cant catch it, ( hence the reason to be vaccinated)  if you cant catch it, you can transmit it

so it goes to that if ur vaccinated, your covid free an there is zero reason to quarantine .

You appear to contradict yourself, or perhaps a typing error?

[chainarong]

In  most Western countries the pattern will be, the front line is first, the elderly and venerable second and the rest follows. It may take up to 12 months or more, its all up in the air, as there's no vaccine, its all, what if. I'm just waiting to see how it all pans out and ensure its safe and the Thai's have actually got it all sorted. They wont have any trouble getting a vaccine, its just where from is the question, some countries aren't all that honest, especially those that can disappear their own people. Did someone mention China. ????????????

[Shannoblic]

Phillip9 - AIDS never killed anyone.  It is a 'syndrome' not an illness/disease.

 

No one has ever died from AIDS nor ever will - it is impossible.  They die from illnesses complicated by the AIDS syndrome [e.g. pneumonia] but NEVER from AIDS itself. 

[Inala]

6 hours ago, runamok27 said:

The experts have already stated that you only need 65% to 70% of the population to be vaccinated to get the desired effect. While it would be better if 100% of the population gets vaccinated, it is not necessary. You also need to look at the reasoning of those folks who won't take the vaccine. A very tiny percentage of those people are actual anti-vaccers, most of them would just like to see it rolled out to some folks to make them feel more confident there are no bad side effects. Another large groups of folks don't want to take the mRNA vaccines but there are plenty of traditional vaccines on the way for them to take. Just a guess but by summer 2021, 80% of Americans will be vaccinated.

 

Yeah, when I read back through what happened with the Spanish flu, <30% of the world's 1.8 billion population at the time became infected and yet the pandemic somehow still ended. It seems the infection rate for the 1957 Asian flu and 1968 Hong Kong flu did not reach anywhere near that infection rate, yet both pandemics ended before the vaccine for each was finally developed.   

[ubonjoe]

Just a reminder this is a forum for visas, extensions, work permit and entries to the country. It is not about covid 19.

If you want to discuss covid 19 you can do it on the COVID-19: Coronavirus forum .

Time to get back on topic that is about entering the country.

 

Edit: And now a off topic post has been removed.

[Inala]

2 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

Just a reminder this is a forum for visas, extensions, work permit and entries to the country. It is not about covid 19.

If you want to discuss covid 19 you can do it on the COVID-19: Coronavirus forum .

Time to get back on topic that is about entering the country.

 

Yep, we were wandering off, as the OP's question on when it will be possible to enter without quarantine is so intrinsically linked to the evolution of the pandemic.

 

For what its worth to the OP, from the little bit of research I did, my own opinion is it will be towards the end of 2021 given that vaccine development seems to be going well.  

[GroveHillWanderer]

21 hours ago, zzzzz said:

as to the vaccine, once you get it, you cant catch it, ( hence the reason to be vaccinated)  if you cant catch it, you can transmit it

so it goes to that if ur vaccinated, your covid free an there is zero reason to quarantine .

I think you meant to say that if you can't catch it, you can't transmit it which is true. Unfortunately your first statement - that once you get the vaccine, you can't get the disease is something that is not yet shown to be true.

 

In fact, none of the clinical trials done so far have even looked at that aspect of things.

 

They only looked to see how sick the people that got infected became, not whether (or how many of) the participants got infected in the first place.

 

Now, there are apparently some indications in the data from the Oxford phase 3 trial that the vaccine may have been preventing infections but that has not been proven - the data just isn't in yet. I've heard a number of virologists and epidemiologists say that they hope or even expect that the vaccine will reduce the number of infections but even the most optimistic of them don't seem to think will totally eliminate them.

[Surelynot]

Olivia, my eldest daughter, caught measles when she was seven years old. As the illness took its usual course I can remember reading to her often in bed and not feeling particularly alarmed about it.

Then one morning, when she was well on the road to recovery, I was sitting on her bed showing her how to fashion little animals out of coloured pipe-cleaners, and when it came to her turn to make one herself, I noticed that her fingers and her mind were not working together and she couldn’t do anything.

'Are you feeling all right?' I asked her. 'I feel all sleepy,' she said.

In an hour, she was unconscious. In twelve hours she was dead.

 

Roald Dahl