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Baht may react to speculation in Asia if US, EU economies sputter


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Baht may react to speculation in Asia if US, EU economies sputter

By THE NATION

 

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The baht opened at 30.31 to the US dollar on Monday, weakening from 30.28 at close on Friday.

 

The Thai currency is likely to move between 30.20 and 30.40 on Monday and between 30 to 30.50 this week, said Jitipol Puksamatanan, senior director of the chief investment office at SCB Securities.

 

Jitipol advised investors to monitor investment direction at the end of this year.

 

He also predicted that there would be speculation in the Asian region, if the market sees that the US or EU economy is not recovering at a reliable rate.

 

Jitipol expected the market this week to move in a narrow range, while the US ISM Manufacturing purchase managers index will be announced on Tuesday.

 

Moreover, the US ADP Employment report is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

On Friday, Thailand's consumer price index and the US Nonfarm Payrolls would be revealed.

 

In addition, the dollar index this week will move between 91 and 93 points, from the present 91.8 points.

 

Soure: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30398804

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-11-30
 
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9 hours ago, Barnabe said:

 

Agree, but it's still pretty surprising given the current circumstances. Certainly goes against the narrative that without tourists Thailand is doomed, and that tourist dollars are what keeps the country afloat.

I wouldn't say doomed but severely hampered. At the moment they have the fat of past years tourism in foreign reserves which signals safety to investors, Thailand should be wary of slimming down, money is as shy as a deer on an open field.

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16 hours ago, Barnabe said:

 

Agree, but it's still pretty surprising given the current circumstances. Certainly goes against the narrative that without tourists Thailand is doomed, and that tourist dollars are what keeps the country afloat.

 

Thats a narrative which is a complete internet myth which since the advent of the web taking off this last 20 years has somehow turned into an internet fact

I wouldnt be surprised to see it rising to 28 over the next couple years

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2 minutes ago, Chivas said:

 

Thats a narrative which is a complete internet myth which since the advent of the web taking off this last 20 years has somehow turned into an internet fact

I wouldnt be surprised to see it rising to 28 over the next couple years

I wouldn’t be surprised to see all export manufacturing to leave Thailand—throwing tens of thousands out of work, not to mention the complete loss the tourist industry—should your vision come to pass.

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Just prior to Yingluck being forcibly removed some years back, I was in negotiations with the Government to supply a particular product in quantity from the UK. We were told that the Thai Government payment would be made to us in the UK from the British Virgin Islands - a highly suspect move which fortunately didn't come to pass because the following day was the coup. Since then I've long held a belief that the Baht is deliberately propped up against popular currencies (particularly £, $ and €) simply because those with extreme wealth here are shovelling money offshore daily and need/demand favorable rates. There is no way Thailand's economic fundamentals can justify the Baht's strength on this long-term ongoing basis. To hell with us little guys and our monthly transfers - we're just collateral damage in a much bigger and lucrative game.

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33 minutes ago, Buffy Frobisher said:

Just prior to Yingluck being forcibly removed some years back, I was in negotiations with the Government to supply a particular product in quantity from the UK. We were told that the Thai Government payment would be made to us in the UK from the British Virgin Islands - a highly suspect move which fortunately didn't come to pass because the following day was the coup. Since then I've long held a belief that the Baht is deliberately propped up against popular currencies (particularly £, $ and €) simply because those with extreme wealth here are shovelling money offshore daily and need/demand favorable rates. There is no way Thailand's economic fundamentals can justify the Baht's strength on this long-term ongoing basis. To hell with us little guys and our monthly transfers - we're just collateral damage in a much bigger and lucrative game.

 

But that doesn't make any sense from a currency pricing point of view. More currency going out of the country than in = baht goes down?

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Just now, Barnabe said:

 

But that doesn't make any sense from a currency pricing point of view. More currency going out of the country than in = baht goes down?

 

Yes, in theory that's true. And I do know a number of people who ship tens of thousands of dollars/euros out every day. Which brings me to my conclusion that it's artificially held up by BoT or the Government in some way so that they get a good rate when buying those three currencies in particular. The Aussie gets hit collaterally. There's no other logical explanation for the Baht's strength that I can think of, regardless of the claims that the Thai economy performing above expectations....for years.

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On 11/30/2020 at 10:33 AM, webfact said:

He also predicted that there would be speculation in the Asian region, if the market sees that the US or EU economy is not recovering at a reliable rate.

What? is this guy just waking up? or has he missed the treasury, the BOT and others saying that the Baht has been under a lot of investment with speculators for the past few months already, and is overvalued.  Another person needing to toot his horn and make believe he is a game player.

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