No-deal Brexit could hit Thai trade: experts

[webfact]

No-deal Brexit could hit Thai trade: experts

By The Nation

 

 

Thai experts are worried that Britain's impending withdrawal from the European Union (EU) could hit Thailand's trade and investment in the country.

 

Krungthai Compass research centre’s senior director Phacharaphot Nuntramas said if Britain exits the EU without a deal on January 1, the pound is expected to weaken by about 10 per cent to 1.20 against the US dollar.

 

This would cause importers and exporters to delay trade in British products, he said.

 

"However, we believe that Britain and the EU can reach a deal to maintain trade privileges or else extend the negotiation period for up to three months," he added, citing the far greater urgency of the Covid-19 crisis.

 

CIMB Thai Bank head of research Amonthep Chawla said the unclear direction of Brexit negotiations had triggered fears of higher product prices and inflation as the pound sterling had weakened sharply.

 

He also expects to see Brexit negotiations extended for another three months due to the Covid-19 outbreak, adding that the talks would not lead to a global financial crisis.

 

"However, Thailand should seek to sign a free trade agreement [FTA] with Britain to boost exports," he said.

 

Siwat Luangsomboon, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research, said Britain would face difficulties whether or not the outcome was a no-deal Brexit, as more than half of the country's exports are to European countries.

 

Brexit would have no affect on Thailand since 2 per cent of Thai exports go to Britain, he said, adding that Thailand should still sign an FTA with Britain to boost exports.

 

"Whether or not we see a no-deal Brexit, the result will not impact financial markets because they have already priced in the outcome," he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30399841

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-21

 

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[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

the unclear direction of Brexit negotiations had triggered fears of higher product prices and inflation as the pound sterling had weakened sharply.

And here we go. This should make the baht dive, as the economy will take another hit, either that or we will be in a hyper inflation situation and many people will be going hungry without government intervention.  However, the flip side will be that eventually deflation will give in and prices will be lowered so the items start to sell as there will be a glut on the market.  Roller coaster ride ahead.

[Chelseafan]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

And here we go. This should make the baht dive, as the economy will take another hit, either that or we will be in a hyper inflation situation and many people will be going hungry without government intervention.  However, the flip side will be that eventually deflation will give in and prices will be lowered so the items start to sell as there will be a glut on the market.  Roller coaster ride ahead.

 

The biggest issue at the moment is avaibility of sea-freight containers and port blockages. Felixstowe is on its knees and some shipping companies are refusing to offload in the UK instead routing to Rotterdam.

[blackcab]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Krungthai Compass research centre’s senior director Phacharaphot Nuntramas said if Britain exits the EU without a deal on January 1, the pound is expected to weaken by about 10 per cent to 1.20 against the US dollar.

 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Siwat Luangsomboon, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research, said... Whether or not we see a no-deal Brexit, the result will not impact financial markets because they have already priced in the outcome," he said.

 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

experts

 

[robblok]

20 minutes ago, blackcab said:

 

 

 

Bit contradictory unless you separate the currency price from shares and derivatives.

 

But its likely that the pound drops on a no deal. So be ready for it. 

[JonnyF]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

"However, Thailand should seek to sign a free trade agreement [FTA] with Britain to boost exports," he said

 

I can see this happening quite quickly. The UK has been signing trade deals around the world at a rapid rate and Thailand is always keen to do business.

 

It's a shame the EU couldn't get a deal done with Thailand, but then we've seen how the EU negotiates.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

However, we believe that Britain and the EU can reach a deal to maintain trade privileges or else extend the negotiation period for up to three months," he added, citing the far greater urgency of the Covid-19 crisis.

So it's all still up in the air.

[Susco]

54 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

I can see this happening quite quickly. The UK has been signing trade deals around the world at a rapid rate and Thailand is always keen to do business.

 

It's a shame the EU couldn't get a deal done with Thailand, but then we've seen how the EU negotiates.

 

Some more false information from a brexiteer with blinders on.

 

EU suspended the talks with Thailand in 2014 because of the military coup and the following bogus election, but not something the UK cares about, as they are desperate for another trade deal just to have it on the books, to show to their blind followers.

 

Trade deals with third world countries, which are the only deals UK has managed to get signed yet, don't have any value.

 

A free trade agreement benefits only Thailand, because they export almost double of what they import.

[madmitch]

These experts know more than those in Britain and Europe.

[Andy from Kent]

18 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

So it's all still up in the air.

 

As its been for the last decade it seems. ????

[Bangkok Barry]

ThaiVisa headlines tody.

[tubber]

1 hour ago, Susco said:

 

 

 

Trade deals with third world countries, which are the only deals UK has managed to get signed yet, don't have any value.

 

 

Yes, the trade agreement with that well known Third World country of Japan has no value.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-japan-sign-free-trade-agreement#:~:text=The UK – Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement was agreed in,of UK trade by 2022.

[Susco]

7 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

If Thailand is such a terrible third world country, why would you live here supporting such a regime? 

 

Probably because I don't have a horse in the race regarding trade deals?

 

8 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Your final paragraph is the biggest load of rubbish I've read today, and I've read a lot of rubbish today.

 

Guess you have been through your post history, re-reading your previous posts today?

[overherebc]

2 hours ago, Susco said:

 

Some more false information from a brexiteer with blinders on.

 

EU suspended the talks with Thailand in 2014 because of the military coup and the following bogus election, but not something the UK cares about, as they are desperate for another trade deal just to have it on the books, to show to their blind followers.

 

Trade deals with third world countries, which are the only deals UK has managed to get signed yet, don't have any value.

 

A free trade agreement benefits only Thailand, because they export almost double of what they import.

If you have access to BBC UK an interesting programme to watch is the one on meat products from the USA to UK if they sign a trade deal.

My only thought after watching it was that I will buy meat from the USA only as last resort and as few times as possible.

[Rimmer]

An post citing an unattributed source and replies have been removed

[chilly07]

Any chance of getting frozen state pensions included in the trade negotiations along with Australia and Canada? As well as  27 EU states also negotiating the UK could finally have to concede this discriminatory policy. They are happy to have a reciprocal tax agreement with Thailand as it enhances tax income from pensions but they don't want to reciprocate on state pension inflation!

[chilly07]

Any chance of getting frozen state pensions included in the trade negotiations along with Australia and Canada? As well as  27 EU states also negotiating the UK could finally have to concede this discriminatory policy. They are happy to have a reciprocal tax agreement with Thailand as it enhances tax income from pensions but they don't want to reciprocate on state pension inflation!

[chilly07]

Any chance of getting frozen state pensions included in the trade negotiations along with Australia and Canada? As well as  27 EU states also negotiating the UK could finally have to concede this discriminatory policy. They are happy to have a reciprocal tax agreement with Thailand as it enhances tax income from pensions but they don't want to reciprocate on state pension inflation!

[Kwasaki]

Chilly07 I  liked it 3 times. ????????????

[ThailandRyan]

43 minutes ago, chilly07 said:

Any chance of getting frozen state pensions included in the trade negotiations along with Australia and Canada? As well as  27 EU states also negotiating the UK could finally have to concede this discriminatory policy. They are happy to have a reciprocal tax agreement with Thailand as it enhances tax income from pensions but they don't want to reciprocate on state pension inflation!

Echo, echo, echo,big chasm

[Kwasaki]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Echo, echo, echo,big chasm

My guess would be because there are so many UK expats in Canada & Australia would be the reason UK govt won't do anything to increase govt pension costs also people are living longer. 

 

Shame really there are many other things expats cannot get or collect from UK as well, I haven't got my winter allowance through yet this year.  ???? ????

[Susco]

1 hour ago, chilly07 said:

Any chance of getting frozen state pensions included in the trade negotiations along with Australia and Canada?

 

The only frozen thing which may be part of those deals will be fish, as the UK will have such an abundance of it, that they can't sell in a year what they will catch in a month.

[johnnytuc]

5 hours ago, Susco said:

 

Some more false information from a brexiteer with blinders on.

 

EU suspended the talks with Thailand in 2014 because of the military coup and the following bogus election, but not something the UK cares about, as they are desperate for another trade deal just to have it on the books, to show to their blind followers.

 

Trade deals with third world countries, which are the only deals UK has managed to get signed yet, don't have any value.

 

A free trade agreement benefits only Thailand, because they export almost double of what they import.

 

[chilly07]

Sorry about the repetition. TV website froze on me just like my UK pension!

[Benmart]

On 12/21/2020 at 11:27 AM, Bangkok Barry said:

ThaiVisa headlines tody.

You posted what I saw as well. Thanks for sharing.