Thailand could see tens of thousands of new daily COVID cases by next month: CCSA

[shackleton]

Well looks like the Government is  thinking more of the business side of things over the coming New Year hotel bookings restaurants ect 

People are travelling in the coming days to late now to stop now 

Will be interesting to see how this pans out in January

Hindsight is a wonderful thing 

[abrahamzvi]

18 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Expect a bad hangover. 

If the warned of, expected spike of cases, like the one in Europe and the US, a complete ban on traveling between provinces and a nationwide stricter ban on entertainment venues, possibly with a night curfew, should be imposed. If this does not take place, immediately, what we have to expect is a complete nationwide lock up, which we all hope can be avoided.

Edited December 29, 2020 by onthedarkside
all upper case comment adjusted

[KhunKenAP]

Don't worry they will put the same controls in place as they did in May. Hospitals and Doctors will be controlled to stop reporting COVID numbers and deaths. Worked for them last time, even got a trophy from the WHO.

[Kaopad999]

15 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

 

I'm not being alarmist but they really should have cancelled the new year, stop people travelling, stop the spread, too chuffing late now, 100's of thousands have left their provinces for the countryside, why are the government so bloody weak ? 

 

January is going to be the worst month of our lives so far, this bunch of muppets in charge should have grown some balls and banned all travel, allow people to shop for essentials & give adequate warnings of things like bars, restaurants, off licences (bottle shops) closures.

 

Gawd it's not difficult, don't send crack troops ( I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere) to fight kids, protect your borders and stop the travelling, chuffing dimwits.

I 100% agree with you. The last thing we all need is another bad start to the new year.... 

[Natai Beach]

9 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

So, I guess you will be taking the Chinese sinovac vaccine then since you clearly don't trust the farang countries. Good luck! ????

No I will be taking the Thai produced one.

 

And so will you, whether you like it or not.

Good luck.

[Kaopad999]

They way they are gong about things would almost suggest that  they want a nationwide lock-down...

 

[Fex Bluse]

7 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

No I will be taking the Thai produced one.

 

And so will you, whether you like it or not.

Good luck.

Wrong about me. But, that's ok. Good luck with the Thai vaccine 555! ????????????

[DirtyHarry55]

42 minutes ago, Keesters said:

Effectively reducing the number of people on the roads and forcing them to stay home. GOOD. 

Yea sure just as it stops them going into shopping malls.
As long as they are doing temp checks and wearing a mask they will feel safe.

Edited December 29, 2020 by DirtyHarry55

[ThailandRyan]

14 hours ago, Natai Beach said:

 

 

Er well, 61 deaths in Thailand versus 1,230,000 in farang countries, I think they still have a slight edge. 
 

And can you post a link of the gloating you are claiming please. I must of missed that. 
 

One more died today in Thailand. A 45 year male. Rayong.

 

https://www.posttoday.com/social/general/641445

Still trying to compare this with other countries like the US aren't you.  Stop the comparisons.  Thailand and the surrounding countries had a different strategy and it was working as well as they believed.  However without the mass testing there never was an absolute on the number of cases either asymptomatic or those with what were minor symptoms.  Somehow we survived getting hit hard, but now it has moved in and they should already have done what they did before.  Most people pay attention here in this country, but very many do not seek treatment when they are ill as they do not want to spend a whole day waiting in Que just to be seen.  Next door's daughter went to the Government hospital yesterday at 7 am, returned at 7pm with her meds, not covid but a nasty sinus infection she has had for over two weeks.

[JeffersLos]

What not to do in a pandemic:

 

Allow millions of people to spread out, travelling across the country, to party in their towns and villages, then all travel back through the country to meet up with their colleagues and start working again. 

 

 

There's going to be some sick days in January. 

[overherebc]

Too many people with the  

'it won't happen to me' mentality.

[Almer]

14 hours ago, Virt said:

If they are starting to see several huge spikes across the country they need to start vaccinating asap. 

 

And yet Thailand still plan to start vaccinations in 5 months from now.

 

If Thailand don't have their contracts on paper with the vaccine manufactures by now , they are in for an unpleasant surprise. 

 

EU just published today that the Pfizer vaccines they ordered will take 10 months before all doses has been delivered, so it's not like you can just order them and get them the week after. 

I think there aim to start vaccination in June was based on no Covid here, I'm sure in government house they are now like headless chickens, but before ordering 100 million might i suggest a lockdown and 8 pm curfew, or you may need to order 80 million and 1 million ventilators and look for other avenues to support the millions of businesses large and small because as a holiday destination Thailand will be closed for years.

My wife has 4 shops and would rather shut them now for a month than for 6 months later only to find many of her customers have perished due to governments irrational decisions.

Why lockdown  and curfew in April when there was no Covid  but now is looking   them in the face and they sit on the fence, what is the game plan?

[Tonypandy]

16 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

in other news..

 

TAT celebrating 2.7M predicted domestic tourists over new year!

 

and..

 

Free tolls on New Year highways!

 

its almost like they want it to spread 

 

 

 

 

Whilst scaring people then control in maintained 

[Muzzique]

15 hours ago, longway said:

Given that millions of chinese were flying in and out of thailand until march, COVID may be already be endemic anyway, and this whole thing a pointless excercise.

 

Figures would support your view here.

 

There is currently a 8.5% increase in expect mortality in Thailand. Between April and end of July 2020 an extra 13000 people died than in the same months of the years between 2009-2019. This mortality data is taken from the Thai Bureau of Registration Administration.

 

Whilst this does not mean COVID-19 is responsible it is hard to find another reason to account for this increase.

 

There is more information and links here

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/ 

 

In addition random testing of all HOSPITAL STAFF in 52 cottage hospitals across Thailand between April and June 2020 shows that 3.7% of those tested have the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies' in their system showing that they have had COVID-19 already. 

 

Random testing for all PATIENT ADMISSIONS (not COVID) within the same  hospitals during the same period show 12.1% carried the same SARS-CoV-2 antibodies which indicates previous infection.

 

This report created by the Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, at Chulalongkorn University is shown here.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139188v3.full.pdf 

 

Thailand is doing as well as can be expected and we can assume you are just experiencing the second wave. 

 

You need to make your own assumptions based on the facts but it is clear that Thailand has had higher instances of COVID than we are lead to believe.

 

Do your research and don't blindly trust figures supplied by people who may not want you to know the truth.

 

Once you have that, then draw your own conclusions 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Muzzique

[Madeline Thompson]

15 hours ago, longway said:

Good, about time they faced the reality that a pandemic means people get infected. Closing down borders and retreating from reality was never a viable option beyond a few months. Given that millions of chinese were flying in and out of thailand until march, COVID may be already be endemic anyway, and this whole thing a pointless excercise.

Totally agree with this post, clearest and most rational one yet. No need to screech out a call to panic, other than as a political control mechanism. It's time to get back to real life again.

[bermondburi]

4 minutes ago, Muzzique said:

 

Figures would support you view here.

 

There is currently a 8.5% increase in expect mortality in Thailand. Between April and end of July 2020 an extra 13000 people died than in the same months of the years between 2009-2019. This mortality data is taken from the Thai Bureau of Registration Administration.

 

Whilst this does not mean COVID-19 is responsible it is hard to find another reason to account for this increase.

 

There is more information and links here

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/ 

 

In addition random testing of all hospital staff in 52 cottage hospitals across Thailand between April and June 2020 shows that 3.7% of those tested have the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies' in their system showing that they have had COVID-19 already. 

 

Random testing for all patient admissions (not COVID) within the same  hospitals during the same period show 12.1% carried the same SARS-CoV-2 antibodies which indicates previous infection.

 

This report was created by the Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, at Chulalongkorn University is shown here.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139188v3.full.pdf 

 

Thailand is doing as well as can be expected and we can assume you are just experiencing the second wave. 

 

You need to make your own assumptions based on the facts but it is clear that Thailand has had higher instances of COVID than we are lead to believe.

 

Do your research and don't blindly trust figures supplied by people who may not want you to know the truth.

 

Once you have that, then draw your own conclusions 

I remember posting the 1st link you have there in the past. Surprisingly the post was removed. 

[AmySeeker]

DEPRESSING

[ftpjtm]

19 minutes ago, Almer said:

 I think there aim to start vaccination in June was based on no Covid here, I'm sure in government house they are now like headless chickens, but before ordering 100 million might i suggest a lockdown and 8 pm curfew

If ordered tomorrow 100 million doses won't arriving before June.

 

Meanwhile the government haven't approved the vaccines the west is using, and won't allow private hospitals to try to acquire it.

[grumbleweed]

9 hours ago, RR2020 said:

So as the virus gets under pressure, from lockdowns, or vaccines, or lack of cases.........it mutates to become easier to spread.

If ever I wanted to demonstrate total and utter ignorance of evolutionary processes, I would use the above as an example

Viruses may become easier to spread because they have mutated. They don't mutate to become easier to spread.

 

p.s. I teach evolution

Mr Ulysses Grumbleweed BSc(open) cert(health science) cert(natural science)

 

 

[Catkiwi]

I have just heard that a Thai news television channel has reported that anyone residing in Rayong and who travels to another province, can not return for 14 days. I have no idea of accurate this is or any further details i.e. how this would be monitored and enforced. Has anyone else heard anything similar? 

 

Have also just heard that Prayut is heading to Rayong today so no doubt it will all be sorted out by tonight ????

[Bender Rodriguez]

test 100.000 - 1.000.000 people or more nationwide

 

maybe they would finally see MOST PEOPLE are positive and NOT SICK !!!

 

60 deaths in 10 months does not ring a bell ?

[Muzzique]

10 minutes ago, bermondburi said:

I remember posting the 1st link you have there in the past. Surprisingly the post was removed. 

 

2 minutes ago, grumbleweed said:

Viruses may become easier to spread because they have mutated. They don't mutate to become easier to spread.

 

With viruses, they are running through evolution at high speed.  

 

At birth, children typically have 70 new genetic mutations compared to their parents. With the time between parents birth and having a child being about 18 years.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190924143205.htm

A virus however has between an 8-72hr replication period. Viruses are also working in the astronomic numbers of replications depending on the number of people infected.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8181/

Most mutations are useless or  can be fatal. But the odd one brings an advantage meaning they are more likely to prosper.

The larger the number of infections the higher the chance one virus can mutate with a change to help it become more successful.

Evolution is just an inbuilt mechanism for all life based around probabilities. It's going to a be a war to keep on top of it. Until it is put back into it's box, COVID-19 will continue to randomly mutate with the possibility one of these mutations will be more successful than others at beating our immune systems. However your body is equipped to deal with these variations, it just need time to work out what it is and create a defense to it. No virus has beaten the human immune system in everyone who caught it yet.

 

The higher the global infection levels the more mutations will be appearing so we are in for along bumpy ride I think for awhile yet.

[rabas]

51 minutes ago, Muzzique said:

 

Figures would support your view here.

 

There is currently a 8.5% increase in expect mortality in Thailand. Between April and end of July 2020 an extra 13000 people died than in the same months of the years between 2009-2019. This mortality data is taken from the Thai Bureau of Registration Administration.

 

Whilst this does not mean COVID-19 is responsible it is hard to find another reason to account for this increase.

 

There is more information and links here

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/ 

 

In addition random testing of all HOSPITAL STAFF in 52 cottage hospitals across Thailand between April and June 2020 shows that 3.7% of those tested have the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies' in their system showing that they have had COVID-19 already. 

 

Random testing for all PATIENT ADMISSIONS (not COVID) within the same  hospitals during the same period show 12.1% carried the same SARS-CoV-2 antibodies which indicates previous infection.

 

This report created by the Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, at Chulalongkorn University is shown here.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139188v3.full.pdf 

 

Thailand is doing as well as can be expected and we can assume you are just experiencing the second wave. 

 

You need to make your own assumptions based on the facts but it is clear that Thailand has had higher instances of COVID than we are lead to believe.

 

Do your research and don't blindly trust figures supplied by people who may not want you to know the truth.

 

Once you have that, then draw your own conclusions 

 

Can you please show actual data (graphs, form reliable sources) for Thailand excess deaths? This has been refuted many times including in the Western press in papers like the New York Times.  Thailand excess deaths are less than 0.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by rabas

[Sametboy2019]

I think its just a case of trying to let people enjoy the New Year then lockdown. 

[superal]

57 minutes ago, Almer said:

I think there aim to start vaccination in June was based on no Covid here, I'm sure in government house they are now like headless chickens, but before ordering 100 million might i suggest a lockdown and 8 pm curfew, or you may need to order 80 million and 1 million ventilators and look for other avenues to support the millions of businesses large and small because as a holiday destination Thailand will be closed for years.

My wife has 4 shops and would rather shut them now for a month than for 6 months later only to find many of her customers have perished due to governments irrational decisions.

Why lockdown  and curfew in April when there was no Covid  but now is looking   them in the face and they sit on the fence, what is the game plan?

I think that the Thai government will try to  avoid a total lockdown because of

1/  there is no social security in Thailand and the majority of workers are low paid and live day to day and a total lockdown will bring panic , looting and a possible revolt . 

2/ the government believe that Thailand has some sort of natural resistance to a national spread of a pandemic as proven earlier this year

3/ the monetary cost to the economy could cost the aristocracy their fortunes and a correction to the true value of the Thai baht . 

[rabas]

6 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

I think its just a case of trying to let people enjoy the New Year then lockdown. 

Don't you mean enjoy the New Year and then hospitalization?

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by rabas

[Sametboy2019]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

Don't you mean enjoy the New Year and then hospitalization?

 

That would generally depend on age and health!

[Christie Paul]

Having an overtly poltical player, who happens to be a psychiatrist make predictions concerning virology, microbiology and immunology is peculiar.

[GroveHillWanderer]

11 hours ago, RR2020 said:

Lets not forget........our current "colds" were actually deadly virus back in the 1800's............that have over time mutated and weakened so they can now live among us..........

I don't know that that's true of the rhinoviruses that cause the majority of colds but it might be partially true of the four coronaviruses that cause around 20% of common colds.

 

Two of those four are thought to have crossed over into humans in the 1800's  (or possibly a little earlier in one case) but the other two appear to be a little older, having crossed over into humans between the 1200's and the 1700’s after originating in bats (yes, bats - again!).

 

It is speculated (but not proven, due to lack of evidence) that these viruses may have been more deadly, initially.

 

The article below goes into this in some detail.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

[StrandedBusinessPerson]

18 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

I'm not being alarmist

 

No, u sound rational. Im not sure why governments world-wide don't, unless they either want to kill us, or they just don't know what the f to do.