UK PM Johnson could lose his seat and majority at next election - poll

[rooster59]

UK PM Johnson could lose his seat and majority at next election - poll

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson poses for a picture after signing the Brexit trade deal with the EU at number 10 Downing Street in London, Britain December 30, 2020. Leon Neal/Pool via REUTERS

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to lose his own seat and neither of the two main political parties is likely to win an outright majority at the next general election, not due until 2024, according to a new poll.

 

This is the first detailed survey of the public's perception of Johnson's handling of the recently concluded Brexit talks and the COVID-19 pandemic after he reversed plans to allow families to meet up at Christmas in parts of southern England to combat the spread of the virus.

 

More than 22,000 people were surveyed in a closely watched poll constituency-by-constituency poll over a four-week period in December, which was conducted by the research data company Focaldata and published by the Sunday Times.

 

The so-called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll found the ruling Conservatives would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-seat majority. This would leave the Conservatives with 284 seats, while the opposition Labour Party would win 282 seats, the poll showed.

 

The Scottish National Party, which wants to break away from the rest of the United Kingdom, is predicted to win 57 of the 59 seats in Scotland, meaning the party could potentially play a kingmaker role in forming the next government.

 

The prime minister is at risk to lose his own seat of Uxbridge, west of London, the poll found.

 

Johnson won a resounding election victory last year that allowed him to take Britain out of the European Union's orbit on New Year's Eve after almost half a century of close ties.

 

But Johnson's premiership may increasingly be defined by the government's response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has already killed more than 74,000 people and crushed the economy.

 

(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; editing by David Evans)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-01-03

 

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[CorpusChristie]

The poll was taken during December , at that time, the UK/EU talks had come to a stalemate and quite possibly, the UK could have left the E.U without a deal .

  Maybe now talks have been concluded and we left with a deal, more people would be supportive of the Government and Boris ?

[transam]

Winston Churchill did his job and then lost out, Boris has done his job and the same could happen.

Will have to wait and see.....????

[JoePai]

What a stupid article, 3 years is a millennium in politics, heck lets over this Covid thing first before worrying who will get into number 10 next

[Chomper Higgot]

9 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

The poll was taken during December , at that time, the UK/EU talks had come to a stalemate and quite possibly, the UK could have left the E.U without a deal .

  Maybe now talks have been concluded and we left with a deal, more people would be supportive of the Government and Boris ?

As against now when the nation is learning that the deal is a mess.

[CorpusChristie]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

As against now when the nation is learning that the deal is a mess.

 

   Yes, the poll was taken during the talks , when Boris was stating he would "walk away by Sunday"

People at the time may have thought Boris wasnt doing too well in the talks .

Better to ask him after the talks concluded , to get a true picture

  Rejoiners will use this to make the claim the UK is unhappy with Brexit 

The question was asking during a difficult time in the talks  , before the conclusion

[robblok]

11 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   Yes, the poll was taken during the talks , when Boris was stating he would "walk away by Sunday"

People at the time may have thought Boris wasnt doing too well in the talks .

Better to ask him after the talks concluded , to get a true picture

  Rejoiners will use this to make the claim the UK is unhappy with Brexit 

The question was asking during a difficult time in the talks  , before the conclusion

You mean before he sold his fishermen out and accepted EU standards ? Things he said he would not. 

[CorpusChristie]

5 minutes ago, robblok said:

You mean before he sold his fishermen out and accepted EU standards ? Things he said he would not. 

 

  People dont seem too concerned about that and most people realise compromise is required during negotiations 

[robblok]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  People dont seem too concerned about that and most people realise compromise is required during negotiations 

The fishermen made a big deal out of it and the die hard brexiteers on the forum said they would never accept the EU rules for fair play. But he gave in on both issues and dressed it up as a victory (not strange all politicians do that not just BJ)

 

In the UK papers the fishermen were really angry about this (just look it up)

[transam]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  People dont seem too concerned about that and most people realise compromise is required during negotiations 

It is amazing that "some" folk don't understand that simple fact....????

[CorpusChristie]

6 minutes ago, robblok said:

The fishermen made a big deal out of it and the die hard brexiteers on the forum said they would never accept the EU rules for fair play.

 

   Could you name those forum members who "never accept the E.U rules of fair play" ?

[robblok]

21 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   Could you name those forum members who "never accept the E.U rules of fair play" ?

Johnyfd (the one with the bike pic) was one of them there were others but hard to look through it all.

 

Yes compromise is required during negotiation. I can remember the Dutch PM when they were negotiating about the loan issue for COVID. He said would not accept something later he had to accept it but got other things in return. He was a bit more honest then BJ. Telling the Dutch that he did not get his way completely but said this is what compromise is.

BJ never did anything of the sort. 

 

I think the UK and EU got a good deal however its far from what BJ promised his hardcore fans. Why do you think the fishermen were so angry. He never said anything about it to the public acknowledging that he did not get what he wanted but hail it all as a victory. I guess he is kinda like Trump never admitting anything always acting tough.

[scammed]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

BJ never did anything of the sort. 

i still like BJ

[transam]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

Johnyfd (the one with the bike pic) was one of them there were others but hard to look through it all.

 

Yes compromise is required during negotiation. I can remember the Dutch PM when they were negotiating about the loan issue for COVID. He said would not accept something later he had to accept it but got other things in return. He was a bit more honest then BJ. Telling the Dutch that he did not get his way completely but said this is what compromise is.

BJ never did anything of the sort. 

 

I think the UK and EU got a good deal however its far from what BJ promised his hardcore fans. Why do you think the fishermen were so angry. He never said anything about it to the public acknowledging that he did not get what he wanted but hail it all as a victory. I guess he is kinda like Trump never admitting anything always acting tough.

Trump......????

You have spoken to fishermen, or are you quoting what you have read in rags...?

[CorpusChristie]

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

Johnyfd (the one with the bike pic) was one of them there were others but hard to look through it all.

 

Yes compromise is required during negotiation. I can remember the Dutch PM when they were negotiating about the loan issue for COVID. He said would not accept something later he had to accept it but got other things in return. He was a bit more honest then BJ. Telling the Dutch that he did not get his way completely but said this is what compromise is.

BJ never did anything of the sort. 

 

I think the UK and EU got a good deal however its far from what BJ promised his hardcore fans. Why do you think the fishermen were so angry. He never said anything about it to the public acknowledging that he did not get what he wanted but hail it all as a victory. I guess he is kinda like Trump never admitting anything always acting tough.

 

   He needs to sell the deal to the British public .

BJ never has claimed to have got everything he wanted .

I have no idea what BJ promised the British public , so cannot comment on that

[luckyluke]

5 minutes ago, robblok said:

Johnyfd (the one with the bike pic) was one of them there were others but hard to look through it all.

 

Yes compromise is required during negotiation. I can remember the Dutch PM when they were negotiating about the loan issue for COVID. He said would not accept something later he had to accept it but got other things in return. He was a bit more honest then BJ. Telling the Dutch that he did not get his way completely but said this is what compromise is.

BJ never did anything of the sort. 

 

I think the UK and EU got a good deal however its far from what BJ promised his hardcore fans. Why do you think the fishermen were so angry. He never said anything about it to the public acknowledging that he did not get what he wanted but hail it all as a victory. I guess he is kinda like Trump never admitting anything always acting tough.

 

Mr. Rutte is an exception.

 

It is no-no for a politician to admit he was/is wrong. 

 

This is something the people learned to live with, and thus don't expect it.

 

Even practically a certitude that the followers of the " lying" politician won't admit he was lying, but will find a lot of "perfectly acceptable excuses" for his behavior.

[NanLaew]

56 minutes ago, robblok said:

You mean before he sold his fishermen out and accepted EU standards ? Things he said he would not. 

 

Conflating fishing rights with national sovereignty. I guess that's what happens when somebody buys a book called, "How fishing will make the UK great again"... and doesn't bother to read it.

 

In a nutshell, retaining total control of fishing that equates to 0.5% of the UK's GDP (or 2% of Scotland's) of which about 78% is landed by five fishing boats that are owned by two families is not a linchpin of any post-Brexit trade agreement. Never has been.

 

51 minutes ago, robblok said:

The fishermen made a big deal out of it and the die hard brexiteers on the forum said they would never accept the EU rules for fair play. But he gave in on both issues and dressed it up as a victory (not strange all politicians do that not just BJ)

 

In the UK papers the fishermen were really angry about this (just look it up)

 

The sum total of the UK's fishermen not voting for Conservative in two years time must be a real worry.

 

Maybe in the Daily Express or Sun?

[robblok]

1 minute ago, luckyluke said:

 

Mr. Rutte is an exception.

 

It is no-no for a politician to admit he was/is wrong. 

 

This is something the people learned to live with, and thus don't expect it.

 

Even practically a certitude that the followers of the " lying" politician won't admit he was lying, but will find a lot of "perfectly acceptable excuses" for his behavior.

I think its more a Dutch thing that we are used to compromise. So its not so hard to admit something like that. Dutch are just far more pragmatic then other countries. I seen politicians in the Netherlands often admit they were wrong (not always of course and not everyone).

 

I kinda like Rutte at least he does not blame the Eu for his own failings. (not that i see what we got out of the covid stuff as a bad deal)

 

I also think the UK and EU have a good deal now. The UK has to keep following the EU standards (can put them in UK laws). That was all I ever wanted and the EU did not cave on that demand. Not that I expected they would. 

 

It would have been stupid for both sides not to come to some sort of agreement. The Brits are screwed about their financial services though. 

[robblok]

Just now, NanLaew said:

 

Conflating fishing rights with national sovereignty. I guess that's what happens when somebody buys a book called, "How fishing will make the UK great again"... and doesn't bother to read it.

 

In a nutshell, retaining total control of fishing that equates to 0.5% of the UK's GDP (or 2% of Scotland's) of which about 78% is landed by five fishing boats that are owned by two families is not a linchpin of any post-Brexit trade agreement. Never has been.

 

 

The sum total of the UK's fishermen not voting for Conservative in two years time must be a real worry.

 

Maybe in the Daily Express or Sun?

No fishing was never important but BJ made it out to be. I mean it was such a small part of the economy it was just symbolic. 

[NanLaew]

 

Yes, there's a whole slew of them out there that conflate the fishing rights with regaining some sovereign waters that in all reality were never lost in the first place. Johnson played 'em like a cheap fiddle and if that was what was needed to "get Brexit done" that's OK in my book.

 

So the Tories may have cooked their Scottish election goose by doing this? As Chaka Khan and Rufus sang, "Tell me something good."

Edited January 4, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[CorpusChristie]

14 minutes ago, robblok said:

I also think the UK and EU have a good deal now. The UK has to keep following the EU standards (can put them in UK laws).

 

  Could you explain what you mean by that ?

(Please do not post another Guardian link )

What  E.U standards does the UK need to follow (within the UK )?

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   Could you name those forum members who "never accept the E.U rules of fair play" ?

I could give you a list of forum members who posted for months that they wanted no deal, but what would be the point.

 

The same people object to being reminded of all the Leave campaign’s ‘easy deal’ promises, switched to ‘no deal’ when the ‘easy deal’ didn’t materialize and switched to this mess of a deal now that its all Johnson could get.

 

 

[robblok]

2 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Could you explain what you mean by that ?

(Please do not post another Guardian link )

What  E.U standards does the UK need to follow (within the UK )?

 

The standards on environment and labor and other standards for products that are to be sold in the EU. The UK cant deviate downwards on those needs to be the same ore better then the EU standards.

Do I really need to explain to you what the deal encompassed ? To keep access to the market the EU cant change its standards downwards to gain a better competitive edge. So no state support no lesser environmental standards or labor standards. 

 

Right now that is not a problem as the UK left the Eu recently so they are all equal or better in the UK. The Dutch also have standards higher then the EU. Its just not allowed to deviate downwards.

 

This was one of the main points and the EU got their wish. 

[Chomper Higgot]

43 minutes ago, transam said:

Trump......????

You have spoken to fishermen, or are you quoting what you have read in rags...?

OK, so another Brexiteer has problem with what’s reported in the newspapers.

 

There’s a big surprise.

[CorpusChristie]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

The standards on environment and labor and other standards for products that are to be sold in the EU. The UK cant deviate downwards on those needs to be the same ore better then the EU standards.

Do I really need to explain to you what the deal encompassed ? To keep access to the market the EU cant change its standards downwards to gain a better competitive edge. So no state support no lesser environmental standards or labor standards. 

 

Right now that is not a problem as the UK left the Eu recently so they are all equal or better in the UK. The Dutch also have standards higher then the EU. Its just not allowed to deviate downwards.

 

This was one of the main points and the EU got their wish. 

 

    Yes, but that is expected when we deal with the E.U.

Of course we have to meet E.U standards when we deal with E.U Countries 

You made it sound like the UK is changing its internal laws to meet E.U standards .

Like, the UK can pass anti covid vaccinations using our own standards, we dont need to wait for the E.Us approval

[CharlieH]

Troll comment removed.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

    Yes, but that is expected when we deal with the E.U.

Of course we have to meet E.U standards when we deal with E.U Countries 

You made it sound like the UK is changing its internal laws to meet E.U standards .

Like, the UK can pass anti covid vaccinations using our own standards, we dont need to wait for the E.Us approval

But British pharmaceutical companies can’t sell to Europe without meeting EU standards.

 

More red tape for a major U.K. industry.

[robblok]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

    Yes, but that is expected when we deal with the E.U.

Of course we have to meet E.U standards when we deal with E.U Countries 

You made it sound like the UK is changing its internal laws to meet E.U standards .

Like, the UK can pass anti covid vaccinations using our own standards, we dont need to wait for the E.Us approval

Of course that is expected, but some on the forum here did not agree with that called it loss of sovereignty. Did not like it that they had to follow EU laws (standards)

 

 

[CorpusChristie]

3 minutes ago, robblok said:

Of course that is expected, but some on the forum here did not agree with that called it loss of sovereignty. Did not like it that they had to follow EU laws (standards)

 

 

 

  Who are these "people on the forum" you keep talking about ?

I cannot speak on behalf of them 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Who are these "people on the forum" you keep talking about ?

I cannot speak on behalf of them 

The one’s you’ve been giving ‘likes’ to would be my guess.