New wave of infections could be over by end of Jan: DDC

[NoComment]

Has anyone told Covid the marvelous news?

[RickBradford]

2 hours ago, mrfill said:

Interesting theory but ...  Look at the figures for places like Norway, Finland and Canada - none of these places are exactly in the tropics and yet their levels are considerably lower than their immediate neighbours. Japan, Korea and Taiwan also are not known for their heat and yet have figures way lower than others in comparable climates.

There is considerable evidence for what is known as 'metabolic health', and a fair portion of that has to do with Vitamin D.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087965v3

 

As one example, 76% of Italian women aged 60-80 were checked as having Vitamin D levels of less than 12 nanograms per millilitre (ng/ml).

 

In Japan, only 5% of active elderly people had Vitamin D levels of less than 30 ng/ml.

 

So it seems that parameters for a good Covid outcome include fresh air and sunshine, a  good diet, and some physical activity. Not exactly a radical conclusion.

 

The Irish health expert Ivor Cummins pointed much of this out, which is worth looking at before YouTube takes the video down.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

 

[Clarkey611]

11 hours ago, Moonlover said:

I have to agree with Dr. Opas with regards to the cooperation of the public. Even though we have not had a single case of Covid within our province, it was like a ghost town in Sakon Nakhon yesterday morning.

 

'This is Saturday morning' I was thinking, 'where is everybody?' Big C was being very strict on checking in procedures and had only 3 checkouts operating. Even then there was no queue! Obviously the public had answered the 'call to arms' and decided that 'stay home and stay safe' really is a good idea.

 

If the cooperation is as good as this everywhere in the country, Dr. Opas could well be right.

 

 

Is there any chance that the money out there has dropped dramatically that people now cannot afford the luxury of shopping at Big C?  

[Blumpie]

well I certainly hope so.

But I don't think so.  

[Blumpie]

12 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

There is considerable evidence for what is known as 'metabolic health', and a fair portion of that has to do with Vitamin D.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087965v3

 

As one example, 76% of Italian women aged 60-80 were checked as having Vitamin D levels of less than 12 nanograms per millilitre (ng/ml).

 

In Japan, only 5% of active elderly people had Vitamin D levels of less than 30 ng/ml.

 

So it seems that parameters for a good Covid outcome include fresh air and sunshine, a  good diet, and some physical activity. Not exactly a radical conclusion.

 

The Irish health expert Ivor Cummins pointed much of this out, which is worth looking at before YouTube takes the video down.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_vAQyVlXzU

 

There is no scientific evidence of Vitamin D making COVID less deadly and making you less sick.  But what you've quoted is correct.  

I'm not a vitamin guy at all - but I do take vitamin D in the winter in a northerly climate.  If I can make my body fight it or anything else better, I will.  It's the only vitamin that I take and I know that I"m deficient in it.

[Moonlover]

16 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

11 hours ago, Moonlover said:

I have to agree with Dr. Opas with regards to the cooperation of the public. Even though we have not had a single case of Covid within our province, it was like a ghost town in Sakon Nakhon yesterday morning.

 

16 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

Is there any chance that the money out there has dropped dramatically that people now cannot afford the luxury of shopping at Big C?  

Oh no, it hasn't got that bad by a long way. Business in town was just about back to normal until this last outbreak. Overall Covid had little effect on the region as a whole.

[Magenta408]

Another sage from Chula has pronounced himself? How do they know unless they are politicians?

[Burma Bill]

4 hours ago, Donga said:

Thailand is a model for Covid management,

Interesting but how about Cambodia where INSTANT decisions were taken to close establishments irrespective of job losses, business losses, tourism etc. etc. To date, never been any mandatory rules, no BS tracing apps, no lock-downs and no inter-provincial travel restrictions. In fact, the Kingdom is currently re-opening (private schools already open, government schools tomorrow 11th January). Herd immunity?????

 

Cambodia

Total cases   391 +4

Recovered   371 +6

Deaths 0

[PatOngo]

3 hours ago, herwin1234 said:

its more fair to save cynical jokes for your home country and be more generous with gratitude to Thailand, the country you choose out of free will and which protected you against a covid crisis.

 

After one year the usa still cant control this crisis. 4000 daily deaths.

Other western countries similar death rates and some again lockdown.

 

Mocking a country that so well controls a pandemic just isnt smart nor fair.

Never lose that wonderful sense of humor, H! You are such fun!

[Soikhaonoiken]

If he can predict what will happen by the end of the Month, Why aren't other World leaders and Scientists predicting the same in other Countries,... 

[geworthomd]

As a doctor speaking, I say the opposite of the comments, sorry folks. I say a job well done. The people of Thailand genuinely feel the need to wear masks.  That is not the same sentiment as the UK or USA. There is a reason why we live here, right. A beautiful country, beautiful warm and compassionate people who genuinely care about each other. What do I know though. I was am only the ABPS American Board of Orthopedic 2017 National Physician of the Year. I know nothing about COVID nor public health. I do love it here and I love the people.  This much I know to be true. Truly, if we accepted such cynicism to be self evident then why not just return home?

[JulioBXL]

18 hours ago, internationalism said:

NOT is missing from between "should" and "drop".

I would not be that optimistic.

Now there is cold season. People get sick from catching cold, hypothermia, probably less than half population do have water heaters in showers.

Virus thrives in cold and in dry conditions - so it's the opposite what was the case during the first wave.

In the spring there were few infections and very strict rules (lock downs, closures, prohibition, night curfew, cancelled public transport and many others).

Now infections are in the range of thousand per day, with much lesser restrictions.

Judging by what's happening in Malaysia, Birma, as well as elsewhere, the second wave would last longer, than january. I would think till the beginning of March, when high temperatures would kill virus

 Funny how all of a sudden everybody turned into Post doctorate virologists... 

[RobU]

19 hours ago, internationalism said:

NOT is missing from between "should" and "drop".

I would not be that optimistic.

Now there is cold season. People get sick from catching cold, hypothermia, probably less than half population do have water heaters in showers.

Virus thrives in cold and in dry conditions - so it's the opposite what was the case during the first wave.

In the spring there were few infections and very strict rules (lock downs, closures, prohibition, night curfew, cancelled public transport and many others).

Now infections are in the range of thousand per day, with much lesser restrictions.

Judging by what's happening in Malaysia, Birma, as well as elsewhere, the second wave would last longer, than january. I would think till the beginning of March, when high temperatures would kill virus

Ultra violet Radiation not High temperatures kills the virus being cold weakens the human immune system it is easier for the virus to take hold if people don't wrap up warm (relative cold-below 20 degrees is cold for Thai people) The sun in winter is in a different position and a much lower amount of UV light reaches the surface.

[Pique Dard]

21 hours ago, rooster59 said:

New wave of infections could be over by end of Jan: DDC

if somebody is interested in knowing my opinion, here it is:  this is just whishful thinking

Edited January 10, 2021 by Pique Dard

[PatOngo]

2 hours ago, JulioBXL said:

 Funny how all of a sudden everybody turned into Post doctorate virologists... 

Your comment is unremarkable, you should rest for a few days!

[junkie]

Sorry but in my opinion Thailand has set an example to the rest of the world how to fight this pandemic. I notice BJ just announced that anybody entering the UK must have a covid test within 72 hours of flying and then self quarantine after arrival. About 9 months too late! Self quarantine is also not sufficient, all arrivals should be taken to currently empty hotels for strict isolation and testing just like guess who has done for months. May be it is inconvenient but it certainly has worked. Latest outbreak is down to people slipping over the border and ignoring the rules. 

[joebrown]

I'd like to know why Thailand is so good at controlling Covid 19 when it can't control corruption, road deaths and the price of lottery tickets.

Maybe the PM has the answer as he's so adept at micro-managing everything?

[AlQaholic]

On 1/10/2021 at 9:03 AM, ThailandRyan said:

????????????

Of course.  I think the opposite is what he actually said.  Proofreading, like I need to do as well.....lol

You see that a lot in all media nowadays, sloppy reporters and editors, not like in the olden times.

[AlQaholic]

1 hour ago, joebrown said:

I'd like to know why Thailand is so good at controlling Covid 19 when it can't control corruption, road deaths and the price of lottery tickets.

Maybe the PM has the answer as he's so adept at micro-managing everything?

I think it is down to individual people taking responsible action, when the new wave hit, I immediately observed how people started to be more diligent again, wearing masks and keeping distances, checking in and out of supermarkets with the govt. app, sanitizing hands when entering and exiting anywhere etc. Look at the TV show hosts that are setting examples by keeping distances and wearing all sorts of protective stuff. Compare with for example Sweden were almost nobody wears a mask in public.

Edited January 11, 2021 by AlQaholic

[sdweller]

Great news!  I think they are doing a good job with this outbreak, very encouraging they can even think about this ????

[Meat Pie 47]

12 hours ago, AlQaholic said:

I think it is down to individual people taking responsible action, when the new wave hit, I immediately observed how people started to be more diligent again, wearing masks and keeping distances, checking in and out of supermarkets with the govt. app, sanitizing hands when entering and exiting anywhere etc. Look at the TV show hosts that are setting examples by keeping distances and wearing all sorts of protective stuff. Compare with for example Sweden were almost nobody wears a mask in public.

Why use Sweden as an example I never have worn a mask where I live and we are Covid-19 free

for 9 months

[AlQaholic]

On 1/11/2021 at 11:24 PM, Meat Pie 47 said:

Why use Sweden as an example I never have worn a mask where I live and we are Covid-19 free

for 9 months

Because I'm Swedish myself? Yes, agree, there seems to be statistical evidence show that lockdown does not decrease the spread of Covid, compared to not doing lockdown. However, personally, I think wearing a mask and hand sanitizing do help.

[geworthomd]

On 1/11/2021 at 5:09 AM, RobU said:

Ultra violet Radiation not High temperatures kills the virus being cold weakens the human immune system it is easier for the virus to take hold if people don't wrap up warm (relative cold-below 20 degrees is cold for Thai people) The sun in winter is in a different position and a much lower amount of UV light reaches the surface.

It is an interesting subject and the jury is still out.  BTW, the PhD virologists don't practice medicine.  Anyway, here is just one article, I would not call it a scientific paper:

https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

The still accepted medical reason for the spread of any disease in winter is that we all get closer together in winter inside our homes.  Why do we still see it increase in the hotter equatorial climates as well during the northern hemisphere winter? The reason is because of migration.  There are more people in the northern hemisphere.  Given that these people are part of our global herd and people fly in airplanes, you have half of the answer.  There are other factors to consider though.  One is the cycle that a flu virus goes to.  Perhaps it jumps from a host animal after a small or even large mutation to a human, then human to human then human to animal.  Currently, pigs are thought to host most but again that theory could change any day by the Ph. D. virologists lol  Asian countries eat more pork.  There are more pigs in asian countries.  China has more close association with pigs and people in closer contact as the theory goes. The laboratory experiments for humidity and temperature in vitro don't really have as much implication on the practice of medicine.  We see the flu spread throughout the world despite a variety of temperatures and humidity.  Just look at what happened during these COVID times.  There have been studies that show being cold has nothing to do with our immune system or if we do or don't get a cold. The Russians have a study that showed the opposite. Growing up I always noticed that the Russians would put coats on their gymnastic athletes after their routines.  I believe that cold may affect your immune system.  That is not to say that cold weather does as Eskimos might attest.  If our body temperature drops our blood gets thicker, our cells don't work as well.  So, if our body temperature decreases then our immune system drops.  Alcohol probably has something to do with lowering the body's immune system if in excess.  Genetics plays a big role.  Do you have two copies of he delta 34 gene?  If you are from northern European (not meaning Russian though) you probably don't have the same immune system as the Asians or Africans.   Contact with contaminated air particles like Pig-Pen's cloud of dust seems to make sense. In the operating room it appears that there are higher and lower bacteria shedding surgeons but that has not been shown for viruses.  Some cultures wash their hands more.  Some areas of China tend to spit on the ground, snort up some snot and hack it out, as I have found.  So, there are a variety of things to consider.  Yes, UV kills bacteria and viruses.  Typically, you can leave water in a plastic bottle out in the sun and it will sterilize but that won't touch things that are in the cystic stage as many parasites can but we were talking about viruses, weren't we.  I'm sorry to get side tracked.  Another interesting thing is that we seem to see a lot more common colds when indoor furnaces get turned on.  Why this is or is it just in association with crowding more indoors, who knows.  One thing that every policeman will tell you and not the medical doctor or Ph.D. virologist, is that physical and verbal confrontation happens more in the colder times when we all hunker down together in the winter.  "I didn't come from no darn ape".  If I had a dollar for every time I heard that.  Human's are mammals and we behave a lot like any other mammals.  My horses will bite, kick and generally kick the snot out of each other.  They will constantly reinforce the superiority of their pecking-order.  One hour later they are all standing together way out in the field.  That pecking order is inbred into every mammal though some are better and some are worse.  Chimps are very bad.  Bonobos (pygma chimps) are less so.  People are no different.  We get lonely when we are away from the herd but when we spend too much time together we tear each other up.  We all just need to walk away sometimes and the other person just needs to know when to give them their space for 15 minutes.  I'm sorry I got off track from virus' again.  I am just bored tonight with nothing to do I guess

 

[geworthomd]

6 minutes ago, geworthomd said:

It is an interesting subject and the jury is still out.  BTW, the PhD virologists don't practice medicine.  Anyway, here is just one article, I would not call it a scientific paper:

https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

The still accepted medical reason for the spread of any disease in winter is that we all get closer together in winter inside our homes.  Why do we still see it increase in the hotter equatorial climates as well during the northern hemisphere winter? The reason is because of migration.  There are more people in the northern hemisphere.  Given that these people are part of our global herd and people fly in airplanes, you have half of the answer.  There are other factors to consider though.  One is the cycle that a flu virus goes to.  Perhaps it jumps from a host animal after a small or even large mutation to a human, then human to human then human to animal.  Currently, pigs are thought to host most but again that theory could change any day by the Ph. D. virologists lol  Asian countries eat more pork.  There are more pigs in asian countries.  China has more close association with pigs and people in closer contact as the theory goes. The laboratory experiments for humidity and temperature in vitro don't really have as much implication on the practice of medicine.  We see the flu spread throughout the world despite a variety of temperatures and humidity.  Just look at what happened during these COVID times.  There have been studies that show being cold has nothing to do with our immune system or if we do or don't get a cold. The Russians have a study that showed the opposite. Growing up I always noticed that the Russians would put coats on their gymnastic athletes after their routines.  I believe that cold may affect your immune system.  That is not to say that cold weather does as Eskimos might attest.  If our body temperature drops our blood gets thicker, our cells don't work as well.  So, if our body temperature decreases then our immune system drops.  Alcohol probably has something to do with lowering the body's immune system if in excess.  Genetics plays a big role.  Do you have two copies of he delta 34 gene?  If you are from northern European (not meaning Russian though) you probably don't have the same immune system as the Asians or Africans.   Contact with contaminated air particles like Pig-Pen's cloud of dust seems to make sense. In the operating room it appears that there are higher and lower bacteria shedding surgeons but that has not been shown for viruses.  Some cultures wash their hands more.  Some cultures shake hands more.  Some cultures have more fomites.  Some areas of China tend to spit on the ground, snort up some snot and hack it out, as I have found.  So, there are a variety of things to consider.  Yes, UV kills bacteria and viruses.  Typically, you can leave water in a plastic bottle out in the sun and it will sterilize but that won't touch things that are in the cystic stage as many parasites can but we were talking about viruses, weren't we.  I'm sorry to get side tracked.  Another interesting thing is that we seem to see a lot more common colds when indoor furnaces get turned on.  Why this is or is it just in association with crowding more indoors, who knows.  One thing that every policeman will tell you and not the medical doctor or Ph.D. virologist, is that physical and verbal confrontation happens more in the colder times when we all hunker down together in the winter.  "I didn't come from no darn ape".  If I had a dollar for every time I heard that.  Human's are mammals and we behave a lot like any other mammals.  My horses will bite, kick and generally kick the snot out of each other.  They will constantly reinforce the superiority of their pecking-order.  One hour later they are all standing together way out in the field.  That pecking order is inbred into every mammal though some are better and some are worse.  Chimps are very bad.  Bonobos (pygmy chimps) are less so.  People are no different.  We get lonely when we are away from the herd but when we spend too much time together we tear each other up.  We all just need to walk away sometimes and the other person just needs to know when to give them their space for 15 minutes.  I'm sorry I got off track from virus' again.  I am just bored tonight with nothing to do I guess

 

 

[geworthomd]

9 minutes ago, geworthomd said:

It is an interesting subject and the jury is still out.  BTW, the PhD virologists don't practice medicine.  Anyway, here is just one article, I would not call it a scientific paper:

https://jvi.asm.org/content/88/14/7692

The still accepted medical reason for the spread of any disease in winter is that we all get closer together in winter inside our homes.  Why do we still see it increase in the hotter equatorial climates as well during the northern hemisphere winter? The reason is because of migration.  There are more people in the northern hemisphere.  Given that these people are part of our global herd and people fly in airplanes, you have half of the answer.  There are other factors to consider though.  One is the cycle that a flu virus goes to.  Perhaps it jumps from a host animal after a small or even large mutation to a human, then human to human then human to animal.  Currently, pigs are thought to host most but again that theory could change any day by the Ph. D. virologists lol  Asian countries eat more pork.  There are more pigs in asian countries.  China has more close association with pigs and people in closer contact as the theory goes. The laboratory experiments for humidity and temperature in vitro don't really have as much implication on the practice of medicine.  We see the flu spread throughout the world despite a variety of temperatures and humidity.  Just look at what happened during these COVID times.  There have been studies that show being cold has nothing to do with our immune system or if we do or don't get a cold. The Russians have a study that showed the opposite. Growing up I always noticed that the Russians would put coats on their gymnastic athletes after their routines.  I believe that cold may affect your immune system.  That is not to say that cold weather does as Eskimos might attest.  If our body temperature drops our blood gets thicker, our cells don't work as well.  So, if our body temperature decreases then our immune system drops.  Alcohol probably has something to do with lowering the body's immune system if in excess.  Genetics plays a big role.  Do you have two copies of he delta 34 gene?  If you are from northern European (not meaning Russian though) you probably don't have the same immune system as the Asians or Africans.   Contact with contaminated air particles like Pig-Pen's cloud of dust seems to make sense. In the operating room it appears that there are higher and lower bacteria shedding surgeons but that has not been shown for viruses.  Some cultures wash their hands more.  Some areas of China tend to spit on the ground, snort up some snot and hack it out, as I have found.  So, there are a variety of things to consider.  Yes, UV kills bacteria and viruses.  Typically, you can leave water in a plastic bottle out in the sun and it will sterilize but that won't touch things that are in the cystic stage as many parasites can but we were talking about viruses, weren't we.  I'm sorry to get side tracked.  Another interesting thing is that we seem to see a lot more common colds when indoor furnaces get turned on.  Why this is or is it just in association with crowding more indoors, who knows.  One thing that every policeman will tell you and not the medical doctor or Ph.D. virologist, is that physical and verbal confrontation happens more in the colder times when we all hunker down together in the winter.  "I didn't come from no darn ape".  If I had a dollar for every time I heard that.  Human's are mammals and we behave a lot like any other mammals.  My horses will bite, kick and generally kick the snot out of each other.  They will constantly reinforce the superiority of their pecking-order.  One hour later they are all standing together way out in the field.  That pecking order is inbred into every mammal though some are better and some are worse.  Chimps are very bad.  Bonobos (pygma chimps) are less so.  People are no different.  We get lonely when we are away from the herd but when we spend too much time together we tear each other up.  We all just need to walk away sometimes and the other person just needs to know when to give them their space for 15 minutes.  I'm sorry I got off track from virus' again.  I am just bored tonight with nothing to do I guess  (BTW, there is more UV from the sun in the southern hemisphere in winter, due to the tilt of the earth and nothing to do with the earth's orbit around the sun.  Australia's peak flu season is June through August.  You've given me something to think about now...UV radiation, mmm...

 

 

[geworthomd]

1 minute ago, geworthomd said:

 

northern winter, summer in the southern hemisphere I mean, obviously. 

[Magenta408]

Could, should, would have, may have....let's see.

[geworthomd]

On 1/17/2021 at 1:53 PM, Magenta408 said:

Could, should, would have, may have....let's see.

The idea is to try and change the future with available data.  Unfortunately, science is an evolving pathway.  If we wait until we see then we don't really change the outcomes do we?  The idea is to try to alter the course of the future and save lives.

[dinsdale]

Yep. Now 26/1 and yesterday 914 new cases detected (Samut Sakhon) with more to follow.

Edited January 26, 2021 by dinsdale