graemeaylward Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Yes, all very well, but I see no reference anywhere to the R number. R refers to the effective reproduction number, which is a way of measuring an infectious diseases capacity to spread. For example, an R number of 1.5 would mean that 100 people would infect 150 others and they in turn would infect 225 who would infect 338 etc. An R number greater than one sees the virus increase, an R number less than 1 means that the virus would eventually peter out. Currently in the UK the R number is 1.2 to 1.3 with a daily infection growth rate range of +2% to +5% as of 15 January 2021. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurien Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, trainman34014 said: They are known for manipulating numbers to suit their own purposes in every sector of life; so believe what you will ! I hope they will - because I want to drive down (carefree troublefree) to Patts by end of this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGSan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, graemeaylward said: Yes, all very well, but I see no reference anywhere to the R number. Pretty easy to estimate upper bounds for this from the published data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGSan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, graemeaylward said: a daily infection growth rate range of +2% to +5% as of 15 What is this ‘growth rate’? How is it calculated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ukrules Posted January 16, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, lockyv7 said: I have been checking the Worldometers info site and Thailand hasnt recorded any tests for almost a week now. Worldometers appear to use legit data, they likely ignore any numbers that come out of Thailand due to this policy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guderian Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The numbers aren't quite as bad as they seem. Of the 230 news cases, 21 were people who'd travelled here and were in state quarantine, so irrelevant to the local story. Then 165 of the cases were in Samut Sakhon, which I'd hope is being treated much like a leper colony by the authorities, with very tight controls. That leaves just 44 cases nationwide, outside of Samut Sakhon. Still more than you'd like, but half of those cases were in just two provinces, 12 were in Bangkok and 10 in Chonburi. As a red zone, Chonburi is already quite tightly controlled, but I still can't understand why Bangkok isn't also a red zone. For the province that's recorded the second-highest number of new cases (after Samut Sakhon) in the last week to have no travel restrictions placed on it is just plain irresponsible. Are the CCSA asleep on the job? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLock Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The numbers may be accurate, but are the result of inconsistent and arbitrary testing. Look at most any other country that has done consistent testing and the numbers don't yo-yo like they do in Thailand. They are more consistent (either up or down) and follow some logical pattern. Thailand numbers are all over the place. Drawing any conclusions from these daily numbers, and probably weekly numbers, is meaningless. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHansen Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, charmonman said: Well, given that they have been reporting new cases daily for the past week worldometers clearly has the wrong data. I myself was tested just a few days ago so I guess someone needs to call worldometers that there was at least one test. You do realise Worldometer is a data collection site yes ? They do not estimate numbers or make assumptions, if they are not reporting numbers it is because the data has no been supplied by TL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkk6060 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) It is not good news if people want the restrictions lifted and domestic travel opened. If they stick with the 30 days with no infection rule, this could go on till April or much later. Edited January 16, 2021 by bkk6060 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Hna Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, thurien said: I hope they will - because I want to drive down (carefree troublefree) to Patts by end of this month So you are prepared to catch covid all for a drive to WC pattaya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGSan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Guderian said: which I'd hope is being treated Hope away, if you wish to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGSan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, DLock said: inconsistent and arbitrary testing. What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGSan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, DLock said: the numbers don't yo-yo like they do in Thailand. I suspected that they will show similar rapid variability in any large area with such small numbers. Do you not agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGSan Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Guderian said: Chonburi is already quite tightly controlled Not that we have noticed here. But you no doubt have sold evidence of this well hidden control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLock Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, PGSan said: I suspected that they will show similar rapid variability in any large area with such small numbers. Do you not agree? No. If they were doing consistent testing in say, red zones, apart from some spikes at the beginning (which they have seen already), over time, the data would be less "yo yo" and more fluid - which could be trending up, or it could be trending down. But right now, there is no consistent testing in any areas, so the positive results really reflect the "arbitrary" (google can help you) nature of testing to suit the Thai narrative, rather that the reality of the COVID situation. ...and I could be completely wrong, and things are under control and trending down, but without consistent testing and data...it's all speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisH Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 hours ago, ukrules said: Worldometers appear to use legit data, they likely ignore any numbers that come out of Thailand due to this policy. Worldometers quotes daily from official Thai data The data you see every day published in newspapers. Not sure about testing data. It hasn't been updated in ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrfill Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 7 hours ago, dcnx said: The best thing that could happen to Thailand would be Thais being banned form giving comments on anything news related. Just give the facts, because none of them can say anything without sounding like an idiot. Certainly sir. Which version of the 'facts' would you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheryl Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 7 hours ago, lupin said: Sat 16 Jan:+230 .... but overall big drop compared to last week. Last week ... Sat 9 Jan:+212 .. mmmkay exactly. No drop but holding steady. Though I think the testing has cast a wider net than before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot01 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 14 hours ago, cyril sneer said: That curve won’t go down until they’ve passed a new law on the morchana app A committee should do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spilornis Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Malaysia hit a new daily record of over 4,000 cases yesterday. They have decided to reduce their level of testing of close contacts as there are now simply too many cases. Similarly mild cases which were quarantined in field hospitals are now quarantining at home. Private hospitals are being asked to take up some of the load with ICU beds in some States nearing capacity in the public hospitals. Discussions about who pays..patient, insurers or Government. Hard to get an idea of daily testing numbers and where in the community the cases are located. Many among the foreign worker community but indications that it has also well and truly crossed over into the local community. Death rates are generally in the region of 6-8 per day but I can see them going up. While not panic stations the R rate is worryingly over 1.2. If it hits 1.5 the numbers will explode. The lockdown in the larger states has a large number of exceptions as the Government is concerned about the economic impact. Can the country hold back the dam wall until vaccines make an impact around August... ???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 16 hours ago, graemeaylward said: Yes, all very well, but I see no reference anywhere to the R number. R refers to the effective reproduction number, which is a way of measuring an infectious diseases capacity to spread. For example, an R number of 1.5 would mean that 100 people would infect 150 others and they in turn would infect 225 who would infect 338 etc. An R number greater than one sees the virus increase, an R number less than 1 means that the virus would eventually peter out. Currently in the UK the R number is 1.2 to 1.3 with a daily infection growth rate range of +2% to +5% as of 15 January 2021. From data page 1 for the 32 days and given an infection period of 4 days. There are 8 infection periods. So: 28(R0)^8 = 7353, R0^8 = 262.6, 8(logR0) = log262.6... logR0=.3012 so R0 = 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerefan Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 17 hours ago, morrobay said: From data page 1 for the 32 days and given an infection period of 4 days. There are 8 infection periods. So: 28(R0)^8 = 7353, R0^8 = 262.6, 8(logR0) = log262.6... logR0=.3012 so R0 = 2 Yes I thought that too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmySeeker Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Till they mass test i doubt these numbers. But they won't do that for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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