Thailand can expect 4-5% growth this year, says Finance Minister

[webfact]

Thailand can expect 4-5% growth this year, says Finance Minister

By The Nation

 

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisit

 

The Thai economy should expand by 4 to 5 per cent this year, Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisit said on Thursday at the World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor event.

 

Related story: Thai economy to see 4% growth this year, says World Bank, but warns of downside risks

He said the government has launched several economic stimulus measures and hopes the upcoming vaccine will also help revive the economy after the Covid-19 fallout.

 

Despite this year’s better outlook, the government will continue pushing economic growth by driving digital, eco-friendly as well as health sectors, he said.

 

The government is also restructuring the taxation system to ensure the country has sustainable revenue, the minister added.

 

The Cabinet on Tuesday approved the new “RaoChana” (WeWin) cash-handout scheme and another round of “Khon La Khrueng” (Let’s Go Halves) co-payment scheme, aiming to ease the burden on people hit by the new wave of Covid-19 infections.

 

Arkhom said on Wednesday that the new WeWin scheme and the first two phases of the Let’s Go Halves scheme should boost the economy by 1 per cent.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30401604

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2021-01-22

 

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[RichardColeman]

36 minutes ago, webfact said:

The Thai economy should expand by 4 to 5 per cent this year, Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisit said on Thursday at the World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor event.

Pretty sure this guy will move this prediction down 1% at the end of every qtr as they go by this year

[Kf6vci]

I'd like some Kool-Aid, too

 

[ezzra]

I long for the day whereby all those government high office holders who predicts this and and that on a daily basis just to show that they are still alive would be held accountable for their words should their rosy 'predictions' will never materialized...

[baansgr]

It may be more, with at least 10 million tourists arriving befor October, it's possible.

[bkk6060]

In 2019 with 40 million tourists it was 2.5%

No way no how it will reach 4 or 5 in fact, level zero would be a good accomplishment.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Kf6vci said:

I'd like some Kool-Aid, too

 

They must be not only drinking the Durian flavored kool-aid but injecting it just like the man who injected himself with magic mushroom tea.......I think the circulation to the brains of these folks is getting cut off by the wearing of a too small shirt with a tight collar and tie.

[richard_smith237]

Grow this year compared to what ?

 

If the expected growth in 2021 is compared to 2020 then 4% seems a reasonable prediction. 

 

Most nations world wide will likely see growth compared to 2020, unless of course the world also remains locked down for the majority of 2021.

 

It was reported that the US saw something in the region of 30% growth in the 3rd quarter of 2020, not really that difficult if the comparison is with only the second quarter. 

 

As with all reports such as this the fundamental facts are brushed aside for some golden-bull<deleted>tery and T*£d polishing.... 

 

 

[Olad Mate]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The government is also restructuring the taxation system to ensure the country has sustainable revenue, the minister added

There's your 4% right there!

BINGO

[ramrod711]

I'm expecting to win a major lottery, before I was only hoping.

[Eric Loh]

On 1/22/2021 at 6:50 AM, richard_smith237 said:

Grow this year compared to what ?

 

If the expected growth in 2021 is compared to 2020 then 4% seems a reasonable prediction. 

 

Most nations world wide will likely see growth compared to 2020, unless of course the world also remains locked down for the majority of 2021.

 

It was reported that the US saw something in the region of 30% growth in the 3rd quarter of 2020, not really that difficult if the comparison is with only the second quarter. 

 

As with all reports such as this the fundamental facts are brushed aside for some golden-bull<deleted>tery and T*£d polishing.... 

 

 

Growth is measured against previous year. There are few causes for optimism that 4% is achievable. Thailand 2nd largest trade partner is China and their economic turnaround has been quite remarkable  after successfully containing the pandemic. US under Biden will support global trade and benefit Thailand export. The ASEAN trading partners have also more or less managed the pandemic well. Then there is the vaccine positive effort on hospitality and leisure industry. I can see some improvement in business sentiment in my contacts with the export companies. Let's hope this will be the year that the world can recover from the pandemic. ????

[jonclark]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Growth is measured against previous year. There are few causes for optimism that 4% is achievable. Thailand 2nd largest trade partner is China and their economic turnaround has been quite remarkable  after successfully containing the pandemic. US under Biden will support global trade and benefit Thailand export. The ASEAN trading partners have also more or less managed the pandemic well. Then there is the vaccine positive effort on hospitality and leisure industry. I can see some improvement in business sentiment in my contacts with the export companies. Let's hope this will be the year that the world can recover from the pandemic. ????

Eric I genuinely hope Thailand (like the rest of the world) can recover from this pandemic. 

 

I am a little less optimistic than you for two reasons;

1) I always take Chinese economic data with a large dose of salt. Pretty much all the official data from China is apporved by CCP before its made public. Its neither transparent nor scrutible. But i think Biden will be more global and less protectionist than the lame duck al orange, who has just vacated the white house. 

2) Whilst the vaccine will make things way better, the tourists themselves simply won't have large amounts of money to spend on overseas holidays, combined with many governments are pushing for domestic tourism (just like Thailand) and i think in Europe espeically, staycations this year will be what most people can afford or risk. I am also waiting to see how effective this vaccine is against different strains in the longer term. Influenze provides different versions of itself every year, which is why at risk groups (immune compromised, old and frail) etc require yearly vaccinations as influenza adapts and evolves very quickly. If Covid follows as similar evolutionary pathway to influenza  (and recent data suggests it is fairly good at evolving) then that opens up a new tin of worms. We get vaccinated, but next year the vaccine is ineffective Then what? 

 

But I hope we can recover quickly from this pandemic - there are too many people suffering economic hardships both in Thailand and globally. 

 

[Jimbo2014]

If I had a Baht for every time the government makes overly optimistic appraisals of economic growth I would never have to work again.  It would just flow money from start of the year to end of the year.  Thailand Tourism is broken.  Rampant pollution ravishes the land.  A bureaucracy stuck in the 19th century governs.  An aging population.  Somehow this government thinks they will get 1990s growth :D.  

[brain150]

Pure PROPAGANDA ... every Socialist Country plays this game !!!

[redwood1]

3 hours ago, jonclark said:

then that opens up a new tin of worms. We get vaccinated, but next year the vaccine is ineffective Then what? 

 

 

 

 

You will need to get vaccinated 1-2 times a year from now on.... 

[RichardColeman]

9 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If the expected growth in 2021 is compared to 2020 then 4% seems a reasonable prediction. 

Not if 20% of your GDP is tourism !

[richard_smith237]

10 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

19 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If the expected growth in 2021 is compared to 2020 then 4% seems a reasonable prediction. 

Not if 20% of your GDP is tourism !

 

I think you are mixing things up. 

 

Tourism in 2020 will not have accounted for much of Thailands GDP.  In 2020 tourism pretty much ended in March. 

All 2021 needs is an ‘open Thailand’ for the second half of the year to see a significant increase in the money brought in from tourism - thus growth on the previous year.

 

The prediction is not so much about the growth in the economy but the difference from a year with very little tourist to a predication that Thailand will see improved tourism numbers in 2021. 

 

Economic growth measured against a year of significant loss is always going to be an extremely flawed statistic. 

If growth were to be predicted against the past 10 year average, negative growth will most likely be the prediction. 

 

Thus, all this claim of 4-5% growth is simply polishing a negative reality that as far as Thailands economy is concerned while this year maybe better than the last it certainly won’t be better than previous years. 

[sammieuk1]

He must be talking about the only growth industry here corruption and embezzlement and under estimated it ????  

[Soikhaonoiken]

Another dreamer, the Governments full of em ????

[Pique Dard]

On 1/21/2021 at 9:31 PM, webfact said:

The Thai economy should expand by 4 to 5 per cent this year

provided tourists come back, he should add