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Thailand reports 198 new coronavirus cases, 1 death


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Thailand reports 198 new coronavirus cases, 1 death

By Reuters Staff

 

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BANGKOK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Thailand on Saturday reported 198 new coronavirus cases, bringing its total number of infections to 13,302 since the outbreak began last year.

 

The new cases included 18 imported cases and one additional death, taking the total number of coronavirus-related fatalities to 72, a COVID-19 taskforce said.

 

(Reporting by Chayut Setboonsarng Editing by Robert Birsel)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-01-23
 

 

 

 

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I think these Covid numbers don't say much. They only find people that are so sick that they go to a doctor AND the doctor reports them as Covid case. And the others are from some random tests or from

Headline:   Massive drop, compared to yesterday.

Based on modeling and the R# it should not be going up and down roller coaster wise, it unfortunately has to do with the numbers tested and when they were tested as far as tracking and tracing and who

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4 minutes ago, AlfHuy said:

Headline:

 

Massive drop, compared to yesterday.

Pipped at the post so to speak!It's like a rollercoaster.

Edited by FarFlungFalang
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53 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Based on modeling and the R# it should not be going up and down roller coaster wise, it unfortunately has to do with the numbers tested and when they were tested as far as tracking and tracing and who knows who is going to a hospital with symptoms.  Trying to find out where in Bangkok they are doing any type of random testing or such with the new infection at Government House, and the newest DJ.

 

R refers to the “effective reproduction number” and, basically put, it’s a way of measuring an infectious disease’s capacity to spread. The R number signifies the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus to.

The roller-coaster is due to practical testing,  timing, reporting, and accounting issues and happens in all countries even worse in some, see France.

 

It also happens because people are not exposed or get sick at scheduled times.

 

R0 is a conceptual number useful mostly for broad estimates (modelling) and discussion. It does not describe the actual evolution of real cases or a real pandemic.  Factors that determine R0 also change a lot from location to location, day to day, etc. Even pollution can change it, or a sports event.

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2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Based on modeling and the R# it should not be going up and down roller coaster wise, it unfortunately has to do with the numbers tested and when they were tested as far as tracking and tracing and who knows who is going to a hospital with symptoms.  Trying to find out where in Bangkok they are doing any type of random testing or such with the new infection at Government House, and the newest DJ.

 

R refers to the “effective reproduction number” and, basically put, it’s a way of measuring an infectious disease’s capacity to spread. The R number signifies the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus to.

intelligent post, Ryan..

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-what-is-the-r-number/

 

 

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14 hours ago, Guderian said:

180 local cases (18 were found in arrivals from overseas) of which 163 were in Samut Sakhon  and 9 in Bangkok. I haven't seen a breakdown of those 9 cases, but I'd guess, like most other days, that they're people who've had contact with Samut Sakhon. So outside the Samut Sakhon cluster (including its influence in Bangkok) there were just 8 local cases in over 60 million people. Well done, Thailand, sort out Samut Sakhon and you can declare victory once again.

So they have it so well under control that new cases are popping up at places like Icon Siam, in Government house with media, and within the television and radio industry, just silently and stealthily staying ahead of all because they are only concentrating the massive testing in one location Samut Sakhon.  Do I have that right?  Or did I miss the entire post you wrote as being filled with sarcasm or wanting to congratulate the Government on doing an excellent job.  Not comparing this to anywhere else in the world just here in Thailand and about this OP.  Again, they are selectively covering cases, not putting much out into the media and trying to keep things quiet.  We just received notification from the system that Icon Siam was closing shops and restaurants for 3 days because 2 employees of a clothing shop had contracted the virus, and were being informed that we may be contacted based upon our proximity in the Mall on the days they suspect the infection occurred.  

Edited by ThailandRyan
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17 hours ago, rabas said:

Ye

 

R0 is a conceptual number useful mostly for broad estimates (modelling) and discussion. It does not describe the actual evolution of real cases or a real pandemic.  Factors that determine R0 also change a lot from location to location, day to day, etc. Even pollution can change it, or a sports event.

Yes R0 is a very flexible term, but is useful with just the math sans the rabbit hole of epidemic variables: The simplest is the compound interest formula. Final inf. = Initial inf.(R0)^n The n are infection periods. (second ref. by Thailand Ryan. According to latest research (Harvard Medical School) an infected person is most infectious in a four day period following infection. So in 28 days there are about 7 infectious periods. Then with 8 initial infected people and R0 of 1.5 the final #infected: 8(R0)^7=136.    Also see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number  scroll to definition in specific cases . Then to estimation methods. R0= e^Kt

 

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15 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

This doesn't explain their reports of 80% asymptomatic cases.

Quote his whole post and don't cherry pick a sentence to suit your agenda.

 

3 hours ago, Oldie said:

I think these Covid numbers don't say much. They only find people that are so sick that they go to a doctor AND the doctor reports them as Covid case. And the others are from some random tests or from the quarantine locations for arrived people. All this has nothing to do with the total Covid cases in Thailand. 

He is obviously talking about the massive random testing in Samut Sakhon, as well as the quarantine.  He is talking about tests not just for those sick, but also asymptomatic cases who can also shed the virus and pass it along.  

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