Another Covid-19 patient dies as 198 new cases reported

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Artisi said:

Stands to reason, if you test in an area known to have a high rate of infections, it follows that the test results will show a high percentage of positives - that only proves what was already known, nothing else. 

What is not known prior to testing in areas with high infection rates is exactly who is infected and how many are infected so the testing will prove who is infected and and how many which is something else that was not known.So to say that testing "only proves what was already known and nothing else." is incorrect.

Edited January 25, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[ThailandRyan]

Wonder if these numbers will be part of todays count of 187 or if they will just hang out in the ether

Samut Sakhon records 148 new COVID-19 cases Sunday evening | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

[Olmate]

40 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Wonder if these numbers will be part of todays count of 187 or if they will just hang out in the ether

Samut Sakhon records 148 new COVID-19 cases Sunday evening | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

Well, any news? 

 

[Sheryl]

5 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

According to a recent article posted on Thaivisa 70,000 tests were conducted with 5,332 returning positive results which according to my calcs suggests a positivity rate of 7.6%.It also says that testing will be intensified.Which concurs with what you've said should be done.

 

 

Yes but that positivity rate is specific to Samut Sakhon. And indeed the Thai MoPH is intensifying its testing there accordingly.

 

Nationwide positivity rates have been quite low and the "test everyone in every part of the country" and "do random tests of X people in every province" brigade's position has no scientific justification.

 

Many posters seem to start from the assumption that the Thais are doing it wrong. ..and that they, with usually zero training in epidemiology or public health, know better.

 

There are certainly some questionable policies emanating from the politicians,  but   testing and surveillance are being directed by the Thai MoPH in full accordance with accepted international practice. Thailand has some excellent public health professionals and a very good track record in public health.

[Sheryl]

47 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What is not known prior to testing in areas with high infection rates is exactly who is infected and how many are infected so the testing will prove who is infected and and how many which is something else that was not known.So to say that testing "only proves what was already known and nothing else." is incorrect.

 

The point of the testing is to identify infected people so that they can be isolated, treated and their contacts traced and tested.

 

Hence it is done in areas known or suspected to have a significant number of cases. And it is expanded until the positivity rate is low enough to suggest testing coverage has been adequate.

[Artisi]

57 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What is not known prior to testing in areas with high infection rates is exactly who is infected and how many are infected so the testing will prove who is infected and and how many which is something else that was not known.So to say that testing "only proves what was already known and nothing else." is incorrect.

Splitting hairs,  testing in known infected areas has a greater chance of identifying new cases than in low or zero infected areas, knowing how many is irrelevant, it's who is infected that's important

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Wonder if these numbers will be part of todays count of 187 or if they will just hang out in the ether

Samut Sakhon records 148 new COVID-19 cases Sunday evening | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

 

Samut Sakhon has been announcing its own results separate from the central MoPH which causes some confusion.

 

Probably provincial goverbnment anxious to be seen by their electorate as "doing something".

 

Confirmed cases in Samut Sakhorn are included in the national totals released by MoPH but typically take a day or so to appear as the MoPH needs to cross check. Also, MoPH reports as positive only confirmed cases i.e. those positive on a repeat test. I am not sure what Samut Sakhon province does in that regard.

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

The point of the testing is to identify infected people so that they can be isolated, treated and their contacts traced and tested.

 

Hence it is done in areas known or suspected to have a significant number of cases. And it is expanded until the positivity rate is low enough to suggest testing coverage has been adequate.

I agree Sheryl.Today we're getting reports that testing is being ramped up which is welcome news.I guess the news that reaches the none Thai language adepts among us makes difficult to see and understand what is happening leaving many questioning the transparency of the testing.

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

Samut Sakhon has been announcing its own results separate from the central MoPH which causes some confusion.

 

Probably provincial goverbnment anxious to be seen by their electorate as "doing something".

 

Confirmed cases in Samut Sakhorn are included in the national totals released by MoPH but typically take a day or so to appear as the MoPH needs to cross check. Also, MoPH reports as positive only confirmed cases i.e. those positive on a repeat test. I am not sure what Samut Sakhon province does in that regard.

It is what makes it seem as if there is no consistency in reporting, and why the numbers never seem to match, thus making it confusing to follow and making it appear as if numbers dissapear.

[Sheryl]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is what makes it seem as if there is no consistency in reporting, and why the numbers never seem to match, thus making it confusing to follow and making it appear as if numbers dissapear.

 

No numbers are disappearing.

 

I agree, having separate announcements from specific provinces ahead of annoucements by the national level can be confusing.

 

Need to remember that the intended audiences are not expats on TVF.  They are the Thai public and, for the Provincial announcements, Thai residents of that province. From elected officials to the electorate.

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Splitting hairs,  testing in known infected areas has a greater chance of identifying new cases than in low or zero infected areas, knowing how many is irrelevant, it's who is infected that's important

I would call it splitting incorrect hairs.Like "knowing how many is irrelevant",really? You're prepared to stand by that statement?How would one know if an area has high numbers of infection if knowing how many there are  "is irrelevant"?

[Sheryl]

11 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I agree Sheryl.Today we're getting reports that testing is being ramped up which is welcome news.I guess the news that reaches the none Thai language adepts among us makes difficult to see and understand what is happening leaving many questioning the transparency of the testing.

 

Expats are not the intended audience for these reports and alleviating the concerns of expat armchair experts is frankly not a priority for the government.

 

The Thai public may differ considerably from TVF membership in what they need and want to hear.

 

And some TVF members will not be satisfied by any amount of information and detail, to be honest.

[RJRS1301]

On 1/24/2021 at 5:13 PM, In the jungle said:

"infection numbers nationwide had deceased from the first week of outbreak."

 

???

 

Presumably that should read decreased.

No the numbers died, as the batteries in calculator ran out.

 

[Artisi]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I would call it splitting incorrect hairs.Like "knowing how many is irrelevant",really? You're prepared to stand by that statement?How would one know if an area has high numbers of infection if knowing how many there are  "is irrelevant"?

If numbers are so important to you, ok, but how about leaving it to the experts to test where considered most appropriate to establish, who-when-why, that's what brings CV19 under control not the numbers - that's just statistics - for what they are worth. 

[FarFlungFalang]

29 minutes ago, Artisi said:

If numbers are so important to you, ok, but how about leaving it to the experts to test where considered most appropriate to establish, who-when-why, that's what brings CV19 under control not the numbers - that's just statistics - for what they are worth. 

The reason I (and it would seem many others) don't leave it to the experts and shut up is because sometimes the experts get it wrong and there are so many experts that have differing opinions to suggest to blindly follow what we are told without question and debate and opinions would be to counter an open society.If you wish to remain silent you are more than welcome to do so,but to expect others to do so because you find reading others opinions objectionable then you will no doubt be disappointed.

[meltonpie]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

The point of the testing is to identify infected people so that they can be isolated, treated and their contacts traced and tested.

 

Hence it is done in areas known or suspected to have a significant number of cases. And it is expanded until the positivity rate is low enough to suggest testing coverage has been adequate.

ok, thanks for that.

 

But I curious, and obviously a bit stupid  -  how do they find the areas that have a significant number of cases?

[Artisi]

9 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

ok, thanks for that.

 

But I curious, and obviously a bit stupid  -  how do they find the areas that have a significant number of cases?

Maybe by the number of people reporting to hospitals / doctors who are "sick" and are subsequently diagnosed with or suspected of having CV19. 

[Sheryl]

23 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

ok, thanks for that.

 

But I curious, and obviously a bit stupid  -  how do they find the areas that have a significant number of cases?

 

It begins  with a case being identified usually at a hospital. Then tracing of that person's movements and contacts and contact testing.

 

In the case of the Samut Sakhon outbreak it was identified through 1 Thai woman who was a wholesale vendor at the seafood market and sought treatment at the hospital. The hospital tested her and reported the positive result to the MoPH who began immediate contact tracing. This quickly led to discovery of many positive cases among migrant workers in the market which in turn spurred wider testing etc etc. Within 24 hours of announcing the initial case they had already identified over 500 positive migrant workers as well as infected members of the original case's family, and so on.

 

The incident with Thais sneaking into Chiang Mai/Chiang Rai from Myanmar casino area came ti light when one woman came into a CM hospital with symptoms and tested positive. This led to immediate tracing which identified both others and the overall problem of illegal returns by Thai workers at  that  Casino. Unlike Samut Sakhon, it did not uncover many cases within Thailand as the source of her infection was at the Casino back in Myanmar.

 

They are really being extremely thorough on the contact tracing and investigations. And unlike in some countries/cultures they seem able to get the necessary information pretty easily, only one case I heard of involving a woman gambler where they had difficulty. the Thai respect for authority does come in handy in such situations, health officials in Western countries have a much harder time of it with people not wanting to reveal names of their contexts etc.

 

Thsi sort of tracing/tracking and targeted testing is very labor intensive but a very productive strategy. Certainly a  better approach than arbitrary random mass testing in out of the way places as some on this board have advocated.

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The reason I (and it would seem many others) don't leave it to the experts and shut up is because sometimes the experts get it wrong and there are so many experts that have differing opinions to suggest to blindly follow what we are told without question and debate and opinions would be to counter an open society.If you wish to remain silent you are more than welcome to do so,but to expect others to do so because you find reading others opinions objectionable then you will no doubt be disappointed.

First up, I don't find your opinions "objectionable" I might not agree with some of your comments, but that's life just as you don't agree with mine. 

As for "experts" that was used with tougue in cheek as I am a little anti-establishment when it comes to the modern medicine-man but probably not to the same degree as I view TVF experts. 

So, let's leave it at that and hope that what ever approach is followed it reaps some benefit. 

[Salerno]

6 hours ago, 10baht said:

You have got me there, but I did not think every flight coming into Thailand was a repatriation flight?

 

They're not, the repat flights are the minority.

[FarFlungFalang]

43 minutes ago, Artisi said:

First up, I don't find your opinions "objectionable" I might not agree with some of your comments, but that's life just as you don't agree with mine. 

As for "experts" that was used with tougue in cheek as I am a little anti-establishment when it comes to the modern medicine-man but probably not to the same degree as I view TVF experts. 

So, let's leave it at that and hope that what ever approach is followed it reaps some benefit. 

No worries it's all good, I missed the tongue in cheek inflection, sorry if I was a little obnoxious( ok a lot) in my retort, I get carried away sometimes (ok often).

[meltonpie]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

It begins  with a case being identified usually at a hospital. Then tracing of that person's movements and contacts and contact testing.

 

In the case of the Samut Sakhon outbreak it was identified through 1 Thai woman who was a wholesale vendor at the seafood market and sought treatment at the hospital. The hospital tested her and reported the positive result to the MoPH who began immediate contact tracing. This quickly led to discovery of many positive cases among migrant workers in the market which in turn spurred wider testing etc etc. Within 24 hours of announcing the initial case they had already identified over 500 positive migrant workers as well as infected members of the original case's family, and so on.

 

The incident with Thais sneaking into Chiang Mai/Chiang Rai from Myanmar casino area came ti light when one woman came into a CM hospital with symptoms and tested positive. This led to immediate tracing which identified both others and the overall problem of illegal returns by Thai workers at  that  Casino. Unlike Samut Sakhon, it did not uncover many cases within Thailand as the source of her infection was at the Casino back in Myanmar.

 

They are really being extremely thorough on the contact tracing and investigations. And unlike in some countries/cultures they seem able to get the necessary information pretty easily, only one case I heard of involving a woman gambler where they had difficulty. the Thai respect for authority does come in handy in such situations, health officials in Western countries have a much harder time of it with people not wanting to reveal names of their contexts etc.

 

Thsi sort of tracing/tracking and targeted testing is very labor intensive but a very productive strategy. Certainly a  better approach than arbitrary random mass testing in out of the way places as some on this board have advocated.

Oh I see.

 

So Thailand is really lucky if only two women have turned up at hospital with symptoms I guess.

 

But your theory kind of assumes that unless someone turns up at hospital for a test there is no virus in the community, doesn't it?

 

Isn't it possible for someone in a community to contract the virus, but not go to hospital?

[Sheryl]

38 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

Oh I see.

 

So Thailand is really lucky if only two women have turned up at hospital with symptoms I guess.

 

But your theory kind of assumes that unless someone turns up at hospital for a test there is no virus in the community, doesn't it?

 

Isn't it possible for someone in a community to contract the virus, but not go to hospital?

Of course. It is a given that there are always some cases in the community here and there. The question is how many and is it starting to rapidly increase.

 

A certain percentage of cases will be symptomatic and among those a certain percentage will be serious. Sort of like the tip of an iceberg.

 

You can have very low levels of community transmission without anything being noticeable but  if numbers  increase past a certain point, there will be some showing up in hospitals.

 

 

[meltonpie]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Of course. It is a given that there are always some cases in the community here and there. The question is how many and is it starting to rapidly increase.

 

A certain percentage of cases will be symptomatic and among those a certain percentage will be serious. Sort of like the tip of an iceberg.

 

You can have very low levels of community transmission without anything being noticeable but  if numbers  increase past a certain point, there will be some showing up in hospitals.

 

 

 

Gotcha.

So what you are saying is that it doesn't matter how many cases there are in a community, we will only know that the numbers are increasing if someone goes to hospital.

But if people have it without any symptoms, we really shouldn't be worrying because they aren't sick.

So I guess if a community has significant numbers, but with a  good proportion who are without symptoms and no one goes to hospital, everyone is safe.

[FarFlungFalang]

9 hours ago, Sheryl said:

Of course. It is a given that there are always some cases in the community here and there. The question is how many and is it starting to rapidly increase.

 

A certain percentage of cases will be symptomatic and among those a certain percentage will be serious. Sort of like the tip of an iceberg.

 

You can have very low levels of community transmission without anything being noticeable but  if numbers  increase past a certain point, there will be some showing up in hospitals.

 

 

According to some news yesterday they've started mass testing in Samut Sakhon with the aim of doing 10,000 tests per day but only managed 5574 with 914 positive cases with infection rate of 16% and they said that mass test will be completed at the end of the week so there seems to be a time limit.This seems to answer your question of wether or not there is a rapid increase which seems to have been found with mass testing which supports the cries of many here for mass testing.So instead of chasing infections they seem to be adopting the approach of many other countries and going for the proactive route of mass testing.By only achieving about half the number of tests they tried for it seems they have some more work to do to be able to achieve their target of 10,000 tests per day.

[Artisi]

7 hours ago, meltonpie said:

 

Gotcha.

So what you are saying is that it doesn't matter how many cases there are in a community, we will only know that the numbers are increasing if someone goes to hospital.

But if people have it without any symptoms, we really shouldn't be worrying because they aren't sick.

So I guess if a community has significant numbers, but with a  good proportion who are without symptoms and no one goes to hospital, everyone is safe.

Self deleted. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Artisi

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Self deleted. 

A wise move.Sorry, tongue firmly planted in cheek.

[Sheryl]

3 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

According to some news yesterday they've started mass testing in Samut Sakhon with the aim of doing 10,000 tests per day but only managed 5574 with 914 positive cases with infection rate of 16% and they said that mass test will be completed at the end of the week so there seems to be a time limit.This seems to answer your question of wether or not there is a rapid increase which seems to have been found with mass testing which supports the cries of many here for mass testing.So instead of chasing infections they seem to be adopting the approach of many other countries and going for the proactive route of mass testing.By only achieving about half the number of tests they tried for it seems they have some more work to do to be able to achieve their target of 10,000 tests per day.

 

I would not call this "mass testing" rather it is active case-finding.

 

They are testing specific risk groups in a geographic area known to have unusually high prevalence.

 

What we have had here are demands from TVF members that the government spend huge amounts of time and resources randomly testing all over the country. Which makes absolutely no epidemiological sense.

 

I would take the supposed timeframes with a grain of salt. More a goal than a limit. It will take more days than hoped to reach 50,000 tests. It requires a lot more than just test kits and staff to do the testing, they have to mobilize attendance from the target population and that is complicated and time consuming to do. Especially with migrant workers some of whom are illegal, they have to use skillful approaches (identifying peer influencers etc) to reassure people that they won't risk arrest by showing up etc. 

 

The positivity rate will determine how much more proactive testing they need to do. Quite likely this will continue in Samut Sakhon for some time.

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

48 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

I would not call this "mass testing" rather it is active case-finding.

 

They are testing specific risk groups in a geographic area known to have unusually high prevalence.

 

What we have had here are demands from TVF members that the government spend huge amounts of time and resources randomly testing all over the country. Which makes absolutely no epidemiological sense.

 

I would take the supposed timeframes with a grain of salt. More a goal than a limit. It will take more days than hoped to reach 50,000 tests. It requires a lot more than just test kits and staff to do the testing, they have to mobilize attendance from the target population and that is complicated and time consuming to do. Especially with migrant workers some of whom are illegal, they have to use skillful approaches (identifying peer influencers etc) to reassure people that they won't risk arrest by showing up etc. 

 

The positivity rate will determine how much more proactive testing they need to do. Quite likely this will continue in Samut Sakhon for some time.

 

 

I agree the definition term "mass testing" in this instance is debatable and I used it because it was used in some of the articles I've read, and at best 10,000 per day would be the very bottom end of the definition.I also appreciate that it requires tremendous resources and effort though they have had 12 months to prepare and watch what's occurring around the world and for a country that boasts being 6th in the world for being prepared to deal with this pandemic I would say they fall woefully short of this boast when they can only manage 5,574 tests in 1 day for what ever reason.

Thailand has decided to try and stop or defeat or eliminate this virus and is trying to put all positive cases in either in hospital (if Thai) or quarantine facilities (detention facilities) if an immigrant regardless of wether they are ill enough to require treatment which could also be call a waist of resources.I would call this approach an experiment as it hasn't been attempted before and it at huge economic expense which I would also call a waste of resources.

I appreciate your reasoned arguments and agree with most of your points I do also play the devils advocate occasionally (ok a lot) and it would seem we are a long way from the end of this pandemic but I would like to know if you see this effort to stop the virus, as distinct from slowing it down, as an experiment and do you think it's possible to actually stop it?The reason I ask is I feel that all the resources I see as being wasted would have been better spent on treating those who need it.Although I don't agree with trying to stop it I don't really begrudge people (they do seem to have a majority) giving it their best shot to see if what I call an experiment can prove successful.Time will no doubt tell and thanks for taking the time to engage the discussion. 

[meltonpie]

4 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

I would not call this "mass testing" rather it is active case-finding.

 

They are testing specific risk groups in a geographic area known to have unusually high prevalence.

 

What we have had here are demands from TVF members that the government spend huge amounts of time and resources randomly testing all over the country. Which makes absolutely no epidemiological sense.

 

I would take the supposed timeframes with a grain of salt. More a goal than a limit. It will take more days than hoped to reach 50,000 tests. It requires a lot more than just test kits and staff to do the testing, they have to mobilize attendance from the target population and that is complicated and time consuming to do. Especially with migrant workers some of whom are illegal, they have to use skillful approaches (identifying peer influencers etc) to reassure people that they won't risk arrest by showing up etc. 

 

The positivity rate will determine how much more proactive testing they need to do. Quite likely this will continue in Samut Sakhon for some time.

 

 

Forgive me - aren't there any Thai people living in Samut Sakhon? (Genuine question)

I get the impression that it is a migrant camp with fences. Is that correct?

Don't any Thai people come into contact with the migrants?