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Pathum Thani market cluster infects 182 people in eight provinces so far


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Pathum Thani market cluster infects 182 people in eight provinces so far

                      

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COVID-19 infections related to Pornpat Market, in Thailand’s central province of Pathum Thani, have spread to eight other provinces and, so far, 182 people have tested positive for the virus, said Dr. Opas Karnkawinpong, director-general of the Disease Control Department, on Sunday.

 

He explained that traders or others linked to the market had travelled to several provinces in the course of their trade, spreading the virus from Pathum Thani to eight other provinces, with seven cases in Nakhon Nayok, three in Phetchaburi, two each in Bangkok and Saraburi and one each in Ayutthaya, Ang Thong, Nakhon Ratchasima and Phrae.

 

He cited the case of a seven-year old child, whose mother is a vendor at Pornpat Market, who went to visit relatives in Nakhon Ratchasima. He advised anyone who has recently had close contact with Pornpat Market vendors to seek medical counselling or call the 1422 hotline if they are concerned that they could be infected.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/pathum-thani-market-cluster-infects-182-people-in-eight-provinces-so-far/

 

 

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2 hours ago, Petey11 said:

This cluster alone shoes how the virus spreads, and across 8 provinces. These are just the cases they have found, but doubtless many more are going undetected as is the nature of this virus.

This is were tracing comes in. They will trace contacts from each case and isolate them. However, they can't find them all. This is were Ro becomes important, they don't need to find all cases, just enough to drop Ro below 1.0. Then the outbreak will end.

 

But at some point the work of tracing becomes exhaustive, that's the uh-oh point.

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16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yes the brilliant PM and the CCSA speech to the public about being safe but still requesting they Travel and spend for the Chinese New Year, and then the PM created a New Holiday.  This will, I am sure, just add to the spread to the rest of the country I fear, just like the Christmas and New Years holiday travel did.  The New Holiday the PM created should be Called "Chinese New COVID Year" a special holiday to commemorate 2020's wonderful gift the Chinese Gave the world, and then what Prayut allowed to spread again in 2021.  Wonder when Pathum Thani will undergo th Bubble and Seal program, Oh wait can not do that as they are mainly Thai's.

The holiday theory didn't really work out. The number of provinces with cases actually dropped from the start of the second wave.

 

But now you have Phatum Thani and other outbreaks. Something very fishy going on. Maybe some shrimp and vegetables, too.

 

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Whack-a-mole.

 

Wet markets (wholesale and retail) seem like the number 1 vector. Makes sense I guess.

 

Maybe do some regular pooled testing on these as a form of surveillence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, rabas said:

This is factually false on several levels.

 

As reported many times now, only about 17% - 20 % of all cases are asymptomatic.

 

 

My post was not based upon whether or not an individual will develop symptoms or not. But just to correct you, the current CDC estimation is 40% may develop symptoms. The point of my post was most people, if they develop any symptoms, will not be able to differentiate between common coronavirus cold symptoms, or other flu-like symptoms. And if you want to create a headline that any one particular market will have a "cluster" then go to any market and start testing... you will have a cluster. So my point stands. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

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3 hours ago, Petey11 said:

This cluster alone shoes how the virus spreads, and across 8 provinces. These are just the cases they have found, but doubtless many more are going undetected as is the nature of this virus.

And yet to be found as they go on to infect others in the same manner.

Bangkok is having trouble but unlike Samut Sakhorn/Songkram they cannot close it down.

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9 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

My post was not based upon whether or not an individual will develop symptoms or not. But just to correct you, the current CDC estimation is 40% may develop symptoms. The point of my post was most people, if they develop any symptoms, will not be able to differentiate between common coronavirus cold symptoms, or other flu-like symptoms. And if you want to create a headline that any one particular market will have a "cluster" then go to any market and start testing... you will have a cluster. So my point stands. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Current rule of thumb from the UK at the moment is "around 1 in 3 people with coronavirus do not have any symptoms." 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/get-a-test-for-coronavirus-covid-19-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms#:~:text=Around 1 in 3 people,the virus on to others.

 

However its difficult as many who are asymptomatic when tested then go onto develop symptoms later, so were in fact pre symptomatic.

 

About 80% of Asymptomatic People With COVID-19 Develop Symptoms 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/938195

 

What is clear is that the hordes of asymptomatic carriers that at times were estimated to be 80% or more simply does not exist.

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2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

It has also been reported many times that asymptomatic cases being much higher so it largely depends on which reports one believes if any.I for one have absolutely no clue,so maybe it would be better to only report symptomatic cases and not confuse the numbers with positive tests.A positive test doesn't indicate the disease they call covid 19.Imagine how much lower the numbers would be if only covid 19 patients who required hospital treatment were counted then maybe many people would not be so terrified. 

Excellent Point.

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3 hours ago, Freeduhdum said:

My post was not based upon whether or not an individual will develop symptoms or not. But just to correct you, the current CDC estimation is 40% may develop symptoms. The point of my post was most people, if they develop any symptoms, will not be able to differentiate between common coronavirus cold symptoms, or other flu-like symptoms. And if you want to create a headline that any one particular market will have a "cluster" then go to any market and start testing... you will have a cluster. So my point stands. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Estimates have dropped a lot over time as more careful studies come out. The CDC includes a wide range of studies and their broad estimates  include 17%-20%. 17%-20% is based on more recent studies. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097543v3

 

Korea estimated 20-30%, Japan 19%, US 40%. All estimates say it's unlikely that vast numbers of truly asymptomatic cases are running around and no one knows, especially when tracing clusters. People must catch it from someone.

 

As for colds, flu, etc, that is precisely what Thailand's broad screening program has addressed since January 2020.  It's all here including daily reports.  https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php They have identified and tested almost 1,000,000 patients of interest PUI. Few had covid.

 

Your original statement, that you can create case clusters anywhere on the planet simply by testing, is an extraordinary claim. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

 

Do you have any?

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6 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

It has also been reported many times that asymptomatic cases being much higher so it largely depends on which reports one believes if any.I for one have absolutely no clue,so maybe it would be better to only report symptomatic cases and not confuse the numbers with positive tests.A positive test doesn't indicate the disease they call covid 19.Imagine how much lower the numbers would be if only covid 19 patients who required hospital treatment were counted then maybe many people would not be so terrified. 

Follow China's lead, they only count symptomatic cases if you read their daily reports, and then state asymptomatic cases separately, hence their daily figures may be in the tens but sometimes asymptomatic up to hundred.

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