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What happens after Thailand's second wave?


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I thought the list might be interested in excerpts from Toronto epidemiologist Andrew Morrison’s weekly Covid email.

 

CANADA

“Yes, we appear to be entering a third wave in Alberta, BC, and Ontario. Some might argue that we only have a few days of data suggesting this, and there are very clustered outbreaks.  I would tend to agree with that, but, without controls on provincial travel AND with these new variants spreading and growing, I think this is rather inevitable, but I really hope I am wrong on this one. We will almost certainly know by this time next week which way things are going. The science would suggest things are going to get substantially worse, but the science is imperfect, so holding out hope is still backed by science on this one.)"

 

CZECHIA - FIVE WAVES OF COVID

"COVID-19 still has legs. Czechia’s first 2 waves were small for a few reasons, but they were real. Regardless, over the past 6 months, they have had an additional 2 waves and are currently in the midst of their 3rd. They just don't learn. Neither do we."

 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THAILAND?

The real question is whether Thailand, in the absence of vaccines, chooses to adopt other countries’ ostrich model. All of them have proved to be disastrous.

 

HOW ABOUT SOME PREEMPTIVE RULES?

1) Restrict all provincial travel. 2) Initiate widespread proactive PCR testing and contact tracing. 3) No indoor events, no large groups (sorry, democracy activists), no indoor restsaurants, bars, gyms, movie theatres. 4) Strictly lockdown areas where cluster infections have occurred.

 

Other than those, business as usual. We can do this IF there is political will. I'm talking to you, PM!

 

When we do get vaccines, let’s make them universal and prioritised:

 

Healthcare workers first; then public services such as grocery workers, postal workers, delivery employees; public transit workers including drivers and conductors as well as cashiers; police & Immigration, airport workers.

 

Border provinces should also be high on the list: let’s not let our neighbours’ failed strategies spoil our own. Looking at Covid stats in Malaysia, we should start with the Muslim South.

 

All roads lead to Bangkok. Universal vaccination in the capital will go a long way to preventing succeeding Covid waves in the provinces.

 

Come on, Prayuth. Buy as many vaccines as possible: India, Russia, Cuba. Is buying at cost not good enough for you? (Oh, I forgot, you already got the jab. That's such a relief for the rest of us!)

 

Vaccines for everybody whose body in in Thailand--legals, illegals, overstays: full amnesty. It may be useful to pay people for vaccinations. Whatever works to keep ALL of us safe.

 

Let’s appeal to people’s sympathy with community. Absolute freedom will not return even once “everyone” is vaccinated. We’ll be wearing masks & handwashing for another couple of years.

 

Surely that’s not much to ask as fellow humans.

Edited by unblocktheplanet
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16 minutes ago, madmen said:

Your in the second wave now. A comparison is new Zealand and Australia both took control early with strict border controls. There was no second wave to speak of. Thailand done a great job and that's why they are hesitant to open borders. 

IMO, we were lucky. Govt strategy was haphazard & not enforced. Public cooperation went a long way. We got a second wave due to greed & corruption. Let's start to make sure there's no third wave before vaccines arrive.

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Excess mortality for 2020 in Thailand kind of paints a different picture of how well Thailand did. There are clearly 3 waves of excess mortality during the year. Hard to conflate with the official figures! 

Screenshot_20210227_012131_com.android.chrome.jpg

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9 minutes ago, pikao said:

How can 83 deaths cause an excess mortality of over 10% in a country with 70 million people???

 

 

 

Exactly!! 

 

Although it's only 10% at points throughout the year..... But even so..... 

 

I smell a rat. 

Screenshot_20210227_093714.jpg

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5 hours ago, bermondburi said:

Excess mortality for 2020 in Thailand kind of paints a different picture of how well Thailand did. There are clearly 3 waves of excess mortality during the year. Hard to conflate with the official figures! 

Screenshot_20210227_012131_com.android.chrome.jpg

Can you provide a link for this?

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6 hours ago, foreverlomsak said:

especially with 400 or so a week roadside deaths

Certainly fluctuations in road deaths could easily account for the observed trend in that graph. 

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8 hours ago, unblocktheplanet said:

IMO, we were lucky. Govt strategy was haphazard & not enforced. Public cooperation went a long way. We got a second wave due to greed & corruption. Let's start to make sure there's no third wave before vaccines arrive.

You are talkign about Thailand, right? Much of the success here was due to 1M+ village heath volunteers pluse the fact that anyone testing positive is immediately taken out of circulation. That, incombination with lockdowns, widespread mask wearing social distancing, has kept infection numbers low. Haphazard seems to work!

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15 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Much of the success here was due to 1M+ village heath volunteers pluse the fact that anyone testing positive is immediately taken out of circulation. That, incombination with lockdowns, widespread mask wearing social distancing, has kept infection numbers low. Haphazard seems to work!

Your post touches reality at only a couple of points - infection numbers are indeed low, and the process has certainly been haphazard.

 

The rest of it - the millions of 'village heath [sic] volunteers', the immediate isolation of positive tested people, and widespread social distancing, is a charming fantasy, but one which I will not ask you to abandon if it makes you feel good.

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16 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

Your post touches reality at only a couple of points - infection numbers are indeed low, and the process has certainly been haphazard.

 

The rest of it - the millions of 'village heath [sic] volunteers', the immediate isolation of positive tested people, and widespread social distancing, is a charming fantasy, but one which I will not ask you to abandon if it makes you feel good.

 Just calling something a "charming fantasy" to your mind is a convincing refutation? Is that your idea of evidence?

THAILAND'S ONE MILLION HEALTH VOLUNTEERS HAILED AS CORONAVIRUS HEROES

https://en.thaihealth.or.th/NEWS/297//

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On 2/27/2021 at 6:25 AM, pikao said:

How can 83 deaths cause an excess mortality of over 10% in a country with 70 million people???

 

 

 

Read the narrative above the graph. It means that the mortality rate 2020 is 10% higher than for the same period (December) in 2015-2019.

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On 2/27/2021 at 1:06 PM, bermondburi said:

Excess mortality for 2020 in Thailand kind of paints a different picture of how well Thailand did. There are clearly 3 waves of excess mortality during the year. Hard to conflate with the official figures! 

Screenshot_20210227_012131_com.android.chrome.jpg

Is there really such a graph. It's very strange. Supposedly the data originally comes from the Human Mortality Database. Yet if you go to the  home page of the human mortality database, Thailand isn't listed as one of the countries it offers data for:

             image.png.cf6779ee6426abeeb888c0d9467c2e0a.png

         https://www.mortality.org/

So where exactly does the graph cited in support of the Thai mortality rate come from? Can anyone provide a link?                  

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On 2/27/2021 at 1:37 PM, bermondburi said:

Exactly!! 

 

Although it's only 10% at points throughout the year..... But even so..... 

 

I smell a rat. 

Screenshot_20210227_093714.jpg

How about if the rat is whoever created that graph you posted? Can you share a link to the page you copied it from?

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On 3/1/2021 at 9:00 AM, placeholder said:

How about if the rat is whoever created that graph you posted? Can you share a link to the page you copied it from?

Well, perhaps if you were prepared to invest 30 seconds on research, as I did, you would find the page you are looking for.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

You may have to remove the other country data to get the dramatic graph shown in the earlier post, but even in this version, you can see 3 separate time periods - Mar 2020, Jun 2020 and Jan 2021, suggesting excess mortality in Thailand of up to 12%.

 

Whether the source is reliable or not, I don't know, but given the above data, it seems questionable.

 

You may have to spend up to a couple of minutes more to check that for yourself.

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3 hours ago, RickBradford said:

Well, perhaps if you were prepared to invest 30 seconds on research, as I did, you would find the page you are looking for.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

You may have to remove the other country data to get the dramatic graph shown in the earlier post, but even in this version, you can see 3 separate time periods - Mar 2020, Jun 2020 and Jan 2021, suggesting excess mortality in Thailand of up to 12%.

 

Whether the source is reliable or not, I don't know, but given the above data, it seems questionable.

 

You may have to spend up to a couple of minutes more to check that for yourself.

I spent far more than 30 seconds and didn't find it. Thanks so much for your kind assistance. It's not exactly the same as the chart shown in an earlier text, but it will do. I still don't understand why the person who posted that chart didn't provide a link and apparently still won't.

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3 hours ago, placeholder said:

I spent far more than 30 seconds and didn't find it. Thanks so much for your kind assistance. It's not exactly the same as the chart shown in an earlier text, but it will do. I still don't understand why the person who posted that chart didn't provide a link and apparently still won't.

Jeez, I'm not your secretary. I have a life outside TV. Just go to the page linked by someone else, it's the same page. Add or delete country as required, adjust time period.... 

 

It's 2021,learn how to use t'internet! 😂

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6 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's not exactly the same as the chart shown in an earlier text,

 

Yes it is.

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3 hours ago, bermondburi said:

Jeez, I'm not your secretary. I have a life outside TV. Just go to the page linked by someone else, it's the same page. Add or delete country as required, adjust time period.... 

 

It's 2021,learn how to use t'internet! 😂

If I wanted to call this issue to a moderator's attention, which I don't, you would find that a person who posts information is responsible for providing the source of it and your original post would be deleted. If this weren't the policy, this forum and others like it would be deluged with  posts from all sorts of dubious sources. 

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