100 million doses of vaccines are needed to generate herd immunity in Thailand

[rooster59]

100 million doses of vaccines are needed to generate herd immunity in Thailand

 

An virology expert at Chulalongkorn University, Dr. Yong Poovorawan
 

Vaccination of over 70% of the country’s population, or 50 million people, in order to generate herd immunity, so that the country can return to normality.

 

In his Facebook post on Friday, Dr. Yong, an virology expert at Chulalongkorn University, said that, to inoculate 50 million people, including children, with two doses each, Thailand would have to procure about 100 million doses of vaccines or, if children are not included, 85 million doses will be needed.

 

Given the 63 million doses ordered, including the few million already available, he said that more vaccines will have to be procured, to meet the required amount to generate herd immunity.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/100-million-doses-of-vaccines-are-needed-to-generate-herd-immunity-in-thailand/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-03-06

 

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[internationalism]

that's minimum 10 months starting from june so not before april 2022.

that's not counting next waves with new mutations and need to accordingly adjust vax and delay production.

 

I am not sure why he is counting children, as nowhere in the world covid vax are approved below 18yo

Edited March 6, 2021 by internationalism

[Bkk Brian]

Everyone who wants to have a vaccine should be able to have one, not just 70% of the people. 

[ThaiPauly]

Another day...another expert????

[Peter Denis]

4 minutes ago, internationalism said:

...

I am not sure why he is counting children, as nowhere in the world covid vax are approved below 18yo

Simple, because it is the usual Weekly Comedy Show by this clown desperately craving media-attention...

There are sensible Thai medical professionals, but their message might not be fully aligned with Thai government policy on covid, so the bottom of the barrel has to be scraped to come up with this Yong idiot.

[cyril sneer]

even if 100% of the population is vaccinated, it will only work on 50%

 

who knows how many more will fall ill from it, I expect these figures will be hidden

[Fex Bluse]

27 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

to inoculate 50 million people, including children, with two doses each, Thailand would have to procure about 100 million doses of vaccines or, if children are not included, 85 million doses will be needed.

 

They seem to miss the step where their Sinovac from their cousins up north is only about 50% effective. Rerun the numbers please. 

[khunPer]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Given the 63 million doses ordered...

A few days ago the news talked about an additional order of 35 million doses, but perhaps that "additional order" was the 35 million that have been talked about for ages, i.e. since early January...????

 

March 3rd...

January 8th...

 

[internationalism]

yes, those 35mln astrazeneca was just have budget allocated, but it was booked in january.

so total 61mln plus sinovac 2mln.

looks, like they will try to force people to buy private or pay for a queue jumping at the governmental hospitals

[lkv]

3 hours ago, internationalism said:

I am not sure why he is counting children, as nowhere in the world covid vax are approved below 18yo

Pfizer and Moderna are doing trials on children age 12-15, with results expected by summer. AZ also trialling on age 12-17.

 

And for younger than that, expected in 2022.

[rabas]

3 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Simple, because it is the usual Weekly Comedy Show by this clown desperately craving media-attention...

There are sensible Thai medical professionals, but their message might not be fully aligned with Thai government policy on covid, so the bottom of the barrel has to be scraped to come up with this Yong idiot.

Impressive idiot:

 

Internationally renowned professor and research scientist with over 400 publications in the fields of gastroenterology, hepatology, and virology. More than 20,000 citations. His later work focuses on virology and Yong is widely recognized for his work on genetic sequencing and detection of the H5N1 avian influenza virus.   He has a lot of awards.

 

And about children, he should know as he started as a paediatrician.

 

Edited March 6, 2021 by rabas

[ukrules]

Their goal is to vaccinate everybody, even if they don't know it yet.

 

Given time, they will learn this based on COVID death eradication in other countries which are going 'all in' on vaccination, countries like the UK and Israel for example.

 

I know Israel is a comparatively small country, but there are already results showing that the number of positive tests are not really dropping off yet but the number of hospitalisations / deaths (serious COVID) is dropping off massively and that is believed to be down the the vulnerable already having been vaccinated.

 

Vaccination is a choice and some people appear to be nervous and hesitant to accept the shots, in about 6 months time I think we're going to find that pretty much only the unvaccinated continue to die from COVID, this should motivate many of the skeptics as more data on safety becomes available.

 

[AlfHuy]

Some people already on their way to the next BMW, Porsche, Benz dealership and planning a trip to an island to have a look at a few beachside properties.

[Peter Denis]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Impressive idiot:

 

Internationally renowned professor and research scientist with over 400 publications in the fields of gastroenterology, hepatology, and virology. More than 20,000 citations. His later work focuses on virology and Yong is widely recognized for his work on genetic sequencing and detection of the H5N1 avian influenza virus.   He has a lot of awards.

 

And about children, he should know as he started as a paediatrician.

 

None the less an idiot, impressive or not, when stating that children should be covid-19 vaccinated.

[hotchilli]

So Pipat  & certain resort governors  all want to open up Thailand June this year.... 

what a fiasco.

[placnx]

25 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

None the less an idiot, impressive or not, when stating that children should be covid-19 vaccinated.

We are starting to learn the extent to which transmission is blocked by specific vaccines. According to posts above, the trials for children are proceeding. It's normal to do these after trials for adults. We already know that children can transmit Covid, so following trial results if positive, then vaccinating kids will be the next order of business.

[rabas]

31 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

None the less an idiot, impressive or not, when stating that children should be covid-19 vaccinated.

Well that makes sense, a world renowned virologist who is also a paediatrician must be an idiot for talking about paediatric vaccination. 

 

The New England Journal of Medicine may be bigger idiots for explaining why on Feb 18, 2021...

 

Vaccinating Children against Covid-19 — The Lessons of Measles

 

"Since nearly a quarter of the U.S. population is under 18 years old — and the percentage is significantly higher in many other countries — effective herd immunity will require pediatric vaccination."

 

[Peter Denis]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

Well that makes sense, a world renowned virologist who is also a paediatrician must be an idiot for talking about paediatric vaccination. 

 

The New England Journal of Medicine may be bigger idiots for explaining why on Feb 18, 2021...

 

Vaccinating Children against Covid-19 — The Lessons of Measles

 

"Since nearly a quarter of the U.S. population is under 18 years old — and the percentage is significantly higher in many other countries — effective herd immunity will require pediatric vaccination."

Well, Dr Byram BRIDLE, Associate Professor of Viral Immunology at the University of Guelph, Canada clearly has a different opinion on that matter.

Attached a +1 hour presentation which he held during a Webinar at the recent New Zealand Covid-19 Science and Policy Symposium 2021.

It starts somewhat slow as he opens with the very basics about virology but hang on and after 15' his presentation becomes absolutely fascinating.  Dr Bridle is PRO-vaccination (it's his profession and he thoroughly believes in the benefits of vaccination) but one cannot but admire both

- the crystal clear way in which he leads us through the issues, and

- his brutal honesty about the current covid-19 quagmire we are in.

Whatever your stance on covid-19 vaccination after seeing this presentation, you will surely reassess your opinion about the current state of affairs.  His presentation is of a totally different caliber than the dr Yong platitudes.

Even though dr Bridle remains somewhat optimistic, he did confirm all my worst fears about the covid-19 vaccination roll-out and its effectiveness.  A must see!

>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrNQ8hkxHw8

 

[KannikaP]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

More than 20,000 citations.

Say for example he is 60 yrs old, so 40 years as a doctor. That is 500 citations a year ie one a week for his entire career. Not bad going eh?

[fvw53]

6 hours ago, ThaiPauly said:

Another day...another expert????

 or another vaccine such as the "one shot" of Johnson & Johnson

[4MyEgo]

15 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Dr Bridle is PRO-vaccination (it's his profession and he thoroughly believes in the benefits of vaccination) but one cannot but admire both

- the crystal clear way in which he leads us through the issues, and

- his brutal honesty about the current covid-19 quagmire we are in.

 

Got to agree with you 1,000% on this Pete and your welcome regarding the link, but appears your post/comment was removed, although I read a little in my email notification.

 

The Viral Immunologist as you say, is all for vaccinations, so he is PRO vaccinations, not against them and explains to us, what the governments, and health officials have failed to tell us or won't, WHY, because they fear we won't take our medicine which is, as he has more or less clearly stated, is still in the 3rd trial stage, (not exactly his words) but in my words, we are the guinea pigs at the moment because all of the data has not come back for this vaccine to grant it FDA approval under normal guidelines, in other words as they have been telling us, it's an "experimental vaccine" granted approval under the "emergency use" guidelines. People don't understand what is going on, they think "vaccine", yes sure, I get my jabs, always have, but all of the data has come back and they are approved under normal guidelines by the FDA, people don't realise that it takes up to 3-4 years for all of the data to come back, and they then decide whether to approve the vaccine based on the data.

 

What the governments and the media have done here is panic because of this respiratory disease COVID that spreads easily, but what they have failed to admit is that 80% of people don't even know they have it or show symptoms, it affects those with weak immune systems such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, but they have shut the world down, destroyed economies in the process which will take forever to rebuild, I won't go on, that's another story, but hey Pneumonia killed 2.56 million people in 2017 which is pretty much the same as COVID and they don't shut the world down every year, ok it might not spread as fast as COVID, but is everyone just took a breath and kept social distancing, wore masks and washed their hands I am sure we would reach herd immunity eventually, and yes people will die, that is part of the process of life and death, and when they get all of the data back from the "experimental vaccine" under "emergency use" guidelines then they can say, as Ma from Ma and Pa Kettle would yell, "come and get it", at the moment they are lining everybody up for a vaccine which can kill them, give them adverse affects for years to come and there is NO COMPENSATION, why, because big pharma are not stupid, they cannot guarantee the "experimental vaccines" will not kill people or give them adverse affects for years to come, yes the numbers might be low, 4,000 deaths worldwide so far if you can find the true statistics or the governments are being honest. I personally do not trust them, they have to much to lose, they need to get their economies back up and running, but putting peoples lives on the line saying these vaccines are safe when all of the data is not in, is a blatant lie, the facts are people have died, people have been having adverse affects.

 

People are ignorant, they listen to what they are being told, they don't question authorities, they think they are there to help and guide them, just like the Thai's who never question or talk back, that is the way they have been taught, and when they protest, the authorities put their leaders in jail so as to cut off the head that is guiding them to what they want, democracy.

 

It frustrates me that people think they know everything, and yes there are conspiracist out there, but there are also people out there like this Dr who is not part of any organisation or moving who is calling a spade a spade, but do you think main stream media will give him a voice, nope, it's all part of the push to get everyone vaccinate for the good of everyone, now what if in 4-5-6 years time people start having major adverse effects or start dying off, can they guarantee that won't happen ?

 

I think the governments and health official need to be honest and come out with it, yet they are saying it is safe, how the F can they say that when all of the data is not in, perhaps they should say, look, it's as safe as we can see from the data we have, however it is an "experimental vaccine" and if things go wrong we have your back, but they won't because they know its a big risk to say that.

 

15 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Whatever your stance on covid-19 vaccination after seeing this presentation, you will surely reassess your opinion about the current state of affairs.  His presentation is of a totally different caliber than the dr Yong platitudes.

 

Only if it were so simple Pete, as the old saying goes; you can lead them to water but........

 

15 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Even though dr Bridle remains somewhat optimistic, he did confirm all my worst fears about the covid-19 vaccination roll-out and its effectiveness.  A must see!

>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrNQ8hkxHw8

 

I am with you on that, I prefer someone to say, look, this is where we are at, this is what it is, and this is what it can do and as for what it does to you down the track is unknown, I can them make an informed decision, but when they hide things and sell something to be what is not known, I will tell the used car salesman, that I will get back to you.

 

All of the above said, I don't waste my time on those who don't want to put the effort in and look outside the square and do their own research because it takes too much time, but instead prefer to listen to what the authorities say unquestionably because they know best, like when George Bush Junior sent young American men into Iran to get killed over weapons of mass destruction that still to this day have never been found, yes different topic, but if you don't get my drift, then you never will.

 

Just look after yourself Pete, stay safe and keep researching, eventually the data will be in and then we can make an informed decision as to which vaccine will be the one, but until then the jury is out here and all over the world as I know we are not alone on this because there are actual people who are educated and think outside the square, questioning things as they should, and if COVID knocks on my door then I will deal with it best I can at the time as I would any other disease out there.

[4MyEgo]

17 hours ago, rabas said:

Well that makes sense, a world renowned virologist who is also a paediatrician must be an idiot for talking about paediatric vaccination. 

 

The New England Journal of Medicine may be bigger idiots for explaining why on Feb 18, 2021...

 

Vaccinating Children against Covid-19 — The Lessons of Measles

 

"Since nearly a quarter of the U.S. population is under 18 years old — and the percentage is significantly higher in many other countries — effective herd immunity will require pediatric vaccination."

 

 

You do realise that this is an "experimental vaccine" don't you, approved under "emergency use" guidelines.

 

Yet you would listen to this quack who has all of this experience and rush out and have your kids vaccinated, yet not knowing what effects this "experimental vaccine" approved under "emergency use" guidelines would do to your children, obviously you don't have kids.

 

I believe his grand standing is premature, he should wait for all of the data to come back which will take years, we need the data so we know how effective the "experimental vaccines" are and how long immunity lasts, people are still dying and having adverse effects.

 

I have 4 kids and if you think I would listen to this quack, your wrong, I would rather my kids bring COVID to me from school as opposed to injecting them with an "experimental vaccine" which is in its biggest "trial 3" stage at the moment with no data in which is what every other vaccine is required to provide before it's approved.

 

Look up the word experimental. Actually, let me provide it to you.

 

ex·per·i·men·tal

/ikˌsperəˈmen(t)l/

Learn to pronounce

 

adjective

 

1. (of a new invention or product) based on untested ideas or techniques and not yet established or finalized.

   "an experimental drug"

Edited March 7, 2021 by 4MyEgo

[placnx]

On 3/7/2021 at 9:13 AM, 4MyEgo said:

 

Got to agree with you 1,000% on this Pete and your welcome regarding the link, but appears your post/comment was removed, although I read a little in my email notification.

 

The Viral Immunologist as you say, is all for vaccinations, so he is PRO vaccinations, not against them and explains to us, what the governments, and health officials have failed to tell us or won't, WHY, because they fear we won't take our medicine which is, as he has more or less clearly stated, is still in the 3rd trial stage, (not exactly his words) but in my words, we are the guinea pigs at the moment because all of the data has not come back for this vaccine to grant it FDA approval under normal guidelines, in other words as they have been telling us, it's an "experimental vaccine" granted approval under the "emergency use" guidelines. People don't understand what is going on, they think "vaccine", yes sure, I get my jabs, always have, but all of the data has come back and they are approved under normal guidelines by the FDA, people don't realise that it takes up to 3-4 years for all of the data to come back, and they then decide whether to approve the vaccine based on the data.

 

What the governments and the media have done here is panic because of this respiratory disease COVID that spreads easily, but what they have failed to admit is that 80% of people don't even know they have it or show symptoms, it affects those with weak immune systems such as the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, but they have shut the world down, destroyed economies in the process which will take forever to rebuild, I won't go on, that's another story, but hey Pneumonia killed 2.56 million people in 2017 which is pretty much the same as COVID and they don't shut the world down every year, ok it might not spread as fast as COVID, but is everyone just took a breath and kept social distancing, wore masks and washed their hands I am sure we would reach herd immunity eventually, and yes people will die, that is part of the process of life and death, and when they get all of the data back from the "experimental vaccine" under "emergency use" guidelines then they can say, as Ma from Ma and Pa Kettle would yell, "come and get it", at the moment they are lining everybody up for a vaccine which can kill them, give them adverse affects for years to come and there is NO COMPENSATION, why, because big pharma are not stupid, they cannot guarantee the "experimental vaccines" will not kill people or give them adverse affects for years to come, yes the numbers might be low, 4,000 deaths worldwide so far if you can find the true statistics or the governments are being honest. I personally do not trust them, they have to much to lose, they need to get their economies back up and running, but putting peoples lives on the line saying these vaccines are safe when all of the data is not in, is a blatant lie, the facts are people have died, people have been having adverse affects.

 

People are ignorant, they listen to what they are being told, they don't question authorities, they think they are there to help and guide them, just like the Thai's who never question or talk back, that is the way they have been taught, and when they protest, the authorities put their leaders in jail so as to cut off the head that is guiding them to what they want, democracy.

 

It frustrates me that people think they know everything, and yes there are conspiracist out there, but there are also people out there like this Dr who is not part of any organisation or moving who is calling a spade a spade, but do you think main stream media will give him a voice, nope, it's all part of the push to get everyone vaccinate for the good of everyone, now what if in 4-5-6 years time people start having major adverse effects or start dying off, can they guarantee that won't happen ?

 

I think the governments and health official need to be honest and come out with it, yet they are saying it is safe, how the F can they say that when all of the data is not in, perhaps they should say, look, it's as safe as we can see from the data we have, however it is an "experimental vaccine" and if things go wrong we have your back, but they won't because they know its a big risk to say that.

 

 

Only if it were so simple Pete, as the old saying goes; you can lead them to water but........

 

 

I am with you on that, I prefer someone to say, look, this is where we are at, this is what it is, and this is what it can do and as for what it does to you down the track is unknown, I can them make an informed decision, but when they hide things and sell something to be what is not known, I will tell the used car salesman, that I will get back to you.

 

All of the above said, I don't waste my time on those who don't want to put the effort in and look outside the square and do their own research because it takes too much time, but instead prefer to listen to what the authorities say unquestionably because they know best, like when George Bush Junior sent young American men into Iran to get killed over weapons of mass destruction that still to this day have never been found, yes different topic, but if you don't get my drift, then you never will.

 

Just look after yourself Pete, stay safe and keep researching, eventually the data will be in and then we can make an informed decision as to which vaccine will be the one, but until then the jury is out here and all over the world as I know we are not alone on this because there are actual people who are educated and think outside the square, questioning things as they should, and if COVID knocks on my door then I will deal with it best I can at the time as I would any other disease out there.

I watched a bit of the Bridle video. At 14:40+ it discussed the Merck Ebola vaccine, that it only took four years for licensure. A friend and his team created this vaccine and licensed it to Merck. It took about two years from the start of development for it to be used in Sierra Leone on around 3000 medical staff. This was ethical for health workers since it was so dangerous to be in direct contact with patients. Efficacy was around 96%.

 

It's different with Covid in that Covid is so much more infectious, and people can spread Covid without showing symptoms. So with even less evaluation time it's still ethical to administer this vaccine on a broad scale. This is going to be very difficult since there doesn't seem to be enough production capacity to keep ahead of the variants.

[DavisH]

On 3/6/2021 at 3:40 PM, Peter Denis said:

None the less an idiot, impressive or not, when stating that children should be covid-19 vaccinated.

I think he knows more about it that you. Or because he is Thai he must know nothing? Is that it? Are you another moaning Thai basher? Another Jacka$$ for my ignore list ????

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

I watched a bit of the Bridle video. At 14:40+ it discussed the Merck Ebola vaccine, that it only took four years for licensure. A friend and his team created this vaccine and licensed it to Merck. It took about two years from the start of development for it to be used in Sierra Leone on around 3000 medical staff. This was ethical for health workers since it was so dangerous to be in direct contact with patients. Efficacy was around 96%.

 

It's different with Covid in that Covid is so much more infectious, and people can spread Covid without showing symptoms. So with even less evaluation time it's still ethical to administer this vaccine on a broad scale. This is going to be very difficult since there doesn't seem to be enough production capacity to keep ahead of the variants.

 

I agree with you 1,000% however I despise it when I see politicians getting the jab and saying it's safe, we don't know that 100% yet, people are dying and they are saying it is not COVID related, so by saying it's safe is a blatant lie IMO, they don't know if its 100% safe, but they are marketing it as if it is.

 

They aren't telling the masses of the causes of deaths because they want everyone vaccinated, and I am all for everyone being vaccinated, if it is as close to 100% as possible to safe, but what about all of these deaths, regardless if the % is low, a life is a life to me and that could be me becoming a statistic, hence the reason I am sitting on the fence until the ALL the data is in, like I said, I will take my chances and if I get it and spread it to someone else, well that's life, and if they have their vaccination then they should be good.

 

The deaths are not conspiracy theories, they are facts, however we aren't being told what they died from, or if they know they are covering it up.

 

I do not trust governments, they have lied over and over and over and people seem to either ignore that or are comfortable with putting their heads in the sand.

 

Just look at history from any government that you can think off and I am sure you can agree that they lie whether they are from wars or other matters.

 

We are big enough to know and understand the truth, but that is lacking in my opinion because they don't want to scare the masses and take their chances on the casualties for the cause of saving everyone in their state of madness.

Edited March 8, 2021 by 4MyEgo