It’s official: Thai govt approves plans to re-open to foreign tourists

[Jimbo2014]

3 hours ago, tlcwaterfall said:

Country comparison India vs Thailand 2021 | countryeconomy.com

Yup Thailand has 3 x the GDP per capita than India as I noted.  What is the point of your link?

[Jimbo2014]

3 hours ago, shdmn said:

The Serum institute in India is the world largest vaccine manufacturer.  They are making at least 2 million AZ doses per day.  I don't think anyone anywhere even comes close to that. 

 

These factories cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build and many months to get up and running at high volume.  Thailand, or any other country, cannot just snap their fingers and start making millions of vaccines.

 

My point exactly.... Perhaps you should have advised the Thai government during 2020, you could have set them straight.  

[tlcwaterfall]

52 minutes ago, Jimbo2014 said:

Yup Thailand has 3 x the GDP per capita than India as I noted.  What is the point of your link?

The point of my link was to back up your post and to provide information to others.

 

What is your point in questioning me?

Edited April 12, 2021 by tlcwaterfall

[Jimbo2014]

8 minutes ago, tlcwaterfall said:

The point of my link was to back up your post and to provide information to others.

 

What is your point in questioning me?

 

Oh sorry ???? - thought you were questioning it.  Yes agreed please accept an apology. 

[placnx]

On 4/11/2021 at 9:52 PM, onebir said:

Some points in the WSJ article seem valid nonetheless.

 

With a moment's reflection it should be obvious that vaccine passports are incompatible with the original rationale for lockdowns: 'flattening the curve' to prevent health services being overloaded simply isn't necessary if a substantial chunk of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated and won't be doing that overloading (regardless of whether herd immunity has been achieved). 

 

What's changed?

The original impetus for vaccine passports was to allow international airline travel without spreading Covid. The passport concept then was suggested as good for restaurants, events, etc, to reduce social distancing normally required since some restaurants only able to serve indoors are uneconomic otherwise.

 

For international travel and public health monitoring, vaccine passports are not ideal. A digital & physical WHO card would make more sense.

[placnx]

On 4/11/2021 at 9:52 PM, onebir said:

Some points in the WSJ article seem valid nonetheless.

 

With a moment's reflection it should be obvious that vaccine passports are incompatible with the original rationale for lockdowns: 'flattening the curve' to prevent health services being overloaded simply isn't necessary if a substantial chunk of the vulnerable population has been vaccinated and won't be doing that overloading (regardless of whether herd immunity has been achieved). 

 

What's changed?

I forgot to mention that the authors (Kulldorff, Bhattacharya) are using the currently popular subject of vaccine passports, which animates the libertarian crowd, to revive their anti-shutdown campaign from last September. WSJ is happy to oblige.

[Peter Denis]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

I forgot to mention that the authors (Kulldorff, Bhattacharya) are using the currently popular subject of vaccine passports, which animates the libertarian crowd, to revive their anti-shutdown campaign from last September. WSJ is happy to oblige.

No need to politicize everything > vaccine passports are simply a BAD idea.

See also link to article in Nature, eloquently making that case

> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0

and attached PDF-version of that article.

Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea - Nature, May 2020.pdf

[VBF]

53 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

No need to politicize everything > vaccine passports are simply a BAD idea.

See also link to article in Nature, eloquently making that case

> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0

and attached PDF-version of that article.

Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea - Nature, May 2020.pdf 407.46 kB · 1 download

To be a little pedantic, that article discusses  immunity passports not vaccination passports and is nearly a year old.

Slightly different if you think about it. 

 

I personally don't mind having to show I've been vaccinated against Covid - I've already had my first shot entered in my Yellow book alongside copious former vaxes but either way it's contentious.

Edited April 13, 2021 by VBF

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

No need to politicize everything > vaccine passports are simply a BAD idea.

See also link to article in Nature, eloquently making that case

> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0

and attached PDF-version of that article.

Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea - Nature, May 2020.pdf 407.46 kB · 1 download

Scott Gottlieb, who headed the US FDA under Trump, had this to say about vaccine passports:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-vaccine-passports-11618174364

"Some have panned [vaccine passports] as a way of denying Americans access to restaurants or other businesses. It’s more likely to allow Americans to visit places they otherwise can’t, such as nursing homes or hospitals that aren’t allowing family members.

 

Another way of thinking about vaccine passports is as a fast lane. Those who present proof of a vaccine might be able to skip requirements for a temperature check, health questionnaire or negative Covid test. Some people stop at toll booths and pay; others buy an E-ZPass and zoom through. The “passport” wouldn’t impose an intrusive new layer; it would eliminate other requirements."

The Case for Vaccine 'Passports' 12apr21.pdf

[Peter Denis]

50 minutes ago, placnx said:

Scott Gottlieb, who headed the US FDA under Trump, had this to say about vaccine passports:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-case-for-vaccine-passports-11618174364

"Some have panned [vaccine passports] as a way of denying Americans access to restaurants or other businesses. It’s more likely to allow Americans to visit places they otherwise can’t, such as nursing homes or hospitals that aren’t allowing family members.

 

Another way of thinking about vaccine passports is as a fast lane. Those who present proof of a vaccine might be able to skip requirements for a temperature check, health questionnaire or negative Covid test. Some people stop at toll booths and pay; others buy an E-ZPass and zoom through. The “passport” wouldn’t impose an intrusive new layer; it would eliminate other requirements."

The Case for Vaccine 'Passports' 12apr21.pdf 674.86 kB · 0 downloads

I don't know what Gottlieb was smoking when he wrote this, but trying to sell 'vaccine passports' as freedom-enhancers is ... < fill in the dots >

 

[lkv]

2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

I don't know what Gottlieb was smoking when he wrote this, but trying to sell 'vaccine passports' as freedom-enhancers is ... < fill in the dots >

 

The Nature article you quoted was published in May 2020. At that time, everyone thought it would all be over by summer/autumn 2020.

 

Unfortunately, we reached the conclusion that, to eradicate a virus as widespread as Sars-Cov-2, vaccines are the only solution.

 

In lieu of these vaccines being made mandatory, other mechanisms have to be put in place to "convince" people to vaccinate.

 

Because otherwise, they won't. Today, we are flush with Astra Zeneca in my country, anybody can get it today by walk in, and everybody wants Pfizer and prefers to wait a couple of weeks.

 

Come May-June, there will be more Pfizer available than people willing to get any vaccine.

 

And without the large majority of people getting one, we will never get out of this mess.

 

Hence, human rights aside, you will see these green certificates applied not only for international travel, but for large scale events also, such as concerts, festivals, football matches, clubs potentially, probably in universities as well in autumn.

 

People will be given the option to either do a rapid antigen test (valid a few days of course), prove they had covid with an antibody test (valid 3 months or so plus medical certificate etc), or be vaccinated, to be "green". This way, there is no discrimination, and public health is protected.

 

This is the direction things are moving to, at least here in Europe.

Edited April 13, 2021 by lkv

[hioctane]

On 4/9/2021 at 8:49 PM, Jimbo2014 said:

 

The solution is relatively simple - purchase vaccines and vaccinate everyone.

Easier said than done. Is more a test run than anything. Safely reopening can be done along side vaccinations. Not in place of.

 

 

9 hours ago, placnx said:

The original impetus for vaccine passports was to allow international airline travel without spreading Covid. The passport concept then was suggested as good for restaurants, events, etc, to reduce social distancing normally required since some restaurants only able to serve indoors are uneconomic otherwise.

 

For international travel and public health monitoring, vaccine passports are not ideal. A digital & physical WHO card would make more sense.

Vaccine cards can be forged. Besides, vaccine passports would allow you to print out the QR codes (links to the digital vaccine passport that proves your vaccination).

[Peter Denis]

11 hours ago, lkv said:

The Nature article you quoted was published in May 2020. At that time, everyone thought it would all be over by summer/autumn 2020.

 

Unfortunately, we reached the conclusion that, to eradicate a virus as widespread as Sars-Cov-2, vaccines are the only solution.

 

In lieu of these vaccines being made mandatory, other mechanisms have to be put in place to "convince" people to vaccinate.

 

Because otherwise, they won't. Today, we are flush with Astra Zeneca in my country, anybody can get it today by walk in, and everybody wants Pfizer and prefers to wait a couple of weeks.

 

Come May-June, there will be more Pfizer available than people willing to get any vaccine.

 

And without the large majority of people getting one, we will never get out of this mess.

 

Hence, human rights aside, you will see these green certificates applied not only for international travel, but for large scale events also, such as concerts, festivals, football matches, clubs potentially, probably in universities as well in autumn.

 

People will be given the option to either do a rapid antigen test (valid a few days of course), prove they had covid with an antibody test (valid 3 months or so plus medical certificate etc), or be vaccinated, to be "green". This way, there is no discrimination, and public health is protected.

 

This is the direction things are moving to, at least here in Europe.

 

You wrote quite correctly that > other mechanisms have to be put in place to "convince" people to vaccinate.

And indeed vaccine passports are one of the main mechanisms to do so.

As Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bathacharrya wrote in their April 7 article published in the Wall Street Journal > The vaccine passport should be understood not as an easing of restrictions but as a coercive scheme to encourage vaccination.
They further wrote in that article <

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629

> The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does.

And they are not anti-vaxxers, far from that, but lone scientific voices of reason in a world that has gone mad.

 

Of course vaccine passports will be pushed by Big Pharma, because creating the need for a 'still valid' stamp in that passport, is a guarantee for repeat big business.  

And make no mistake, once those passports are introduced they will be used to deny/allow attending social events and required or peer-pressured by some employers.

 

A couple of thoughts/questions to put this in perspective:

- A vaccine passport is not an 'immunization' passport - so a test that proves that you have anti-bodies (e.g. from earlier infection) is not a 'vaccine', thus forcing everybody that was earlier infected and did overcome the infection the natural way via their immune system to take the jab;

- People that for medical reasons cannot take the vaccine, will be ostrachized - this is already happening in Israel where vaccine passports are made mandatory to attend social events;

- Healthy people with non-challenged immune-systems - typically the young - are reduced to 'walking bio-hazards' unless they opt for continual (life-long?) vaccination with a passport to prove it.

 

There is no such thing as the 'new' normal which is Newspeak for the dystopian future we are slowly coerced into.  With expressions like 'social distancing' (an asocial practice) and Stay Safe as the new greeting for the pathological afraid-of-their-own-shadow.

 

Vaccine Passports Prolong Lockdowns - WSJ _ April 2021.pdf

Edited April 14, 2021 by Peter Denis

[lkv]

4 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

The vaccine passport should be understood not as an easing of restrictions but as a coercive scheme to encourage vaccination.

 

I understand what you are saying. However, the way I see it is, without a vaccine, this will never come even close to the "normal" we used to know.

 

Every single time we relaxed restrictions, cases went up. We already had 3/4 waves, and we might as well have 50 waves without vaccines.

 

Here, we have night lockdowns, restaurants close early, clubs are shut down, never mind clubs festivals concerts. 

 

These will NOT open until a large proportion of population has had these vaccines.

 

And, in light of the Astra Zeneca scandal, and now J&J, which is not helping, people like myself are opting for Pfizer, but many more, perhaps with less knowledge, are just freaking out and say they will not get any vaccine whatsoever. They don't even know the difference between them.

 

So the problem is, we are unlikely to hit that 70-80% needed.

 

You will see that many countries reach maybe 30-40%, without any coercive schemes, but past that, people will not be bothered.

 

30-40% is not good enough, unfortunately. This virus has created massive economic losses for the last 12 months, we cannot keep going on like this for another 5-10 years, because of "human rights".

 

So in this context, public and economic health outweighs total freedom of choice.

 

But, because they still want to sound democratic, they will be giving people options between vaccines and antigen tests (in Europe).

 

This is way more democratic than what Carrie Lam is thinking of doing in Hong Kong right now.

 

https://amp.scmp.com/coronavirus/article/3129305/hong-kong-coronavirus-vaccination-bubble-plan-not-intended-coerce

[polpott]

Just now, lkv said:

And, in light of the Astra Zeneca scandal, and now J&J,

What scandal? Evidence but not proven, that one in a million young women may develop a clot. All 6 cases in the US have been young women. Why are you worrying? Are you a young woman?

[lkv]

Just now, polpott said:

What scandal? Evidence but not proven, that one in a million young women may develop a clot. All 6 cases in the US have been young women. Why are you worrying? Are you a young woman?

 

The negative publicity around Astra Zeneca has hurt the whole vaccination campaign more than all the anti vaxxers.

[polpott]

Just now, lkv said:

 

The negative publicity around Astra Zeneca has hurt the whole vaccination campaign more than all the anti vaxxers.

The negative publicity has primarily come from the anti vaxxers. They're a bunch of idiots, ignore them. You'll be fine.

[lkv]

Just now, polpott said:

The negative publicity has primarily come from the anti vaxxers. They're a bunch of idiots, ignore them. You'll be fine.

 

I am fine, I am scheduled for my first Pfizer dose in roughly 70 minutes. 15 minute drive from my place. That's why I am having coffee and opened the forum ????

 

My concern is that we will not hit the targets in August, hence restrictions will be in place, that will affect me as well.

[Peter Denis]

14 minutes ago, lkv said:

...

So the problem is, we are unlikely to hit that 70-80% needed.

 

You will see that many countries reach maybe 30-40%, without any coercive schemes, but past that, people will not be bothered.

30-40% is not good enough, unfortunately. This virus has created massive economic losses for the last 12 months, we cannot keep going on like this for another 5-10 years, because of "human rights".

...

 

You are correct in stating > So the problem is, we are unlikely to hit that 70-80% needed.

Repost of an earlier post of mine in another thread.

Indeed, the notion that herd immunity could be achieved with mass-vaccination looks like a pipe-dream according to this March 2021 article in Nature.

      > https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

And the author spells out five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible:

• It's unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission
• Vaccine roll-out is uneven
• New variants change the herd-immunity equation
• Immunity might not last forever
• Vaccines might change human behavior

Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible _ Nature - March 2021.pdf

[polpott]

Just now, lkv said:

 

I am fine, I am scheduled for my first Pfizer dose in roughly 70 minutes. 15 minute drive from my place. That's why I am having coffee and opened the forum ????

 

My concern is that we will not hit the targets in August, hence restrictions will be in place, that will affect me as well.

The AZ vaccine is the primary vaccine in the UK, now been given to over 50% of the adult population. Surveys show that 96% of the population are keen to have the vaccine. Every target that the government has set, has been met on time. Now moving on to vaccinate the over 40s. Not bad for a vaccine that has such a bad rep.

[lkv]

Just now, polpott said:

The AZ vaccine is the primary vaccine in the UK, now been given to over 50% of the adult population.

 

I agree, and if that was the only choice I would take it, however here we are free to choose between Pfizer, Moderna, and Astra Zeneca, and I preferred to wait a bit longer on the waiting list for Pfizer.

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, polpott said:

Now moving on to vaccinate the over 40s.

Bit worrying......the news today quietly amend that to over 45's...????

[polpott]

Just now, Surelynot said:

Bit worrying......the news today quietly amend that to over 45's...????

Not really. It says "bookings are now being taken for the over 45s" Still the target to vaccinate the over 40s next. Current target is to give the second dose to as many people as possible in April, far more people being given the 2nd dose than the first dose currently. It has been known for some time that there would be a shortage in April. Back to normal next month. My mate gets his second dose on May 15th and I should get my first dose around the same time. However, i will be asking for a different vaccine, J&J hopefully as I want to return to Thailand asap.

[lkv]

Latest news, the EU will not renew contracts upon expiry on Astra Zeneca, and will focus on vaccines using mRNA technology:

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronovirus-eu-vaccines-idUSKBN2C10MU

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

 

You are correct in stating > So the problem is, we are unlikely to hit that 70-80% needed.

Repost of an earlier post of mine in another thread.

Indeed, the notion that herd immunity could be achieved with mass-vaccination looks like a pipe-dream according to this March 2021 article in Nature.

      > https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

And the author spells out five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible:

• It's unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission
• Vaccine roll-out is uneven
• New variants change the herd-immunity equation
• Immunity might not last forever
• Vaccines might change human behavior

Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible _ Nature - March 2021.pdf 446.3 kB · 0 downloads

I read this article from Nature, and while it has some good observations, it misses some recent discoveries and developments, such as:

1) Trials of Pfizer & Moderna for children 12 and up are in, results being submitted for EUA. Children under 12 are not so likely to transmit.  Israel his been checking transmission prevention on behalf of Pfizer, and this seems fairly robust.

2) The Brazil P.1 variant shows that new variants can overcome natural immunity, so It's definitely not a good idea to follow the advice of Great Barrington Declaration and just go for infecting the young to attain natural immunity. Immunity by a good vaccine is much more effective.

3) We just have to keep monitoring how long immunity lasts with the mRNA vaccines. So far, so good. Could be a number of years, in theory. Boosters are already being researched.

4) The article discusses the political resistance of libertarian politicians, i.e. governor of Texas, which is politically related to Great Barrington mentioned above. Despite this continuing anti-vax,

anti-mask campaign, the hesitancy or resistance seems to be receding. In time there is hope that there will be enough pushback that a sufficient percentage of the population in the US will choose to get the jab. 

5) As for the extended rollout worldwide, including Thailand, the US in particular, as the center of advanced vaccine technology, should some time ago have sized up the worldwide capacity for producing high efficacity vaccines and created government-owned facilities to enable Pfizer, Moderna, perhaps others to produce sufficient vaccine doses for a big share of the world's population. Elsewhere I have posted links to a study on the economic benefits, cost-effectiveness of such a program. But back at that time, the Trump Covid team had so much infighting that it's not surprising that little thought seems to have been given to the situation outside the US. 

[hioctane]

8 hours ago, polpott said:

What scandal? Evidence but not proven, that one in a million young women may develop a clot. All 6 cases in the US have been young women. Why are you worrying? Are you a young woman?

Here is a quick solution.. Don't give it to young women! It has already been shown that women have stronger reactions to the vaccines. Maybe lower dosing for women should be explored too.

[bill014]

Complete contradiction in the text. States "All non-Thai passengers from the UK and Ireland will be subject to not less than 11-night quarantine (effective from 1 April 2021) at their own expenses at one of the facilities for Alternative State Quarantine (ASQ) that have been approved by the Thai authorities".

It then suggests you book the 10 day package!! Are the Embassy staff unable to comprehend what they read from their own Government?

[placnx]

On 4/13/2021 at 10:07 PM, hioctane said:

Easier said than done. Is more a test run than anything. Safely reopening can be done along side vaccinations. Not in place of.

 

 

Vaccine cards can be forged. Besides, vaccine passports would allow you to print out the QR codes (links to the digital vaccine passport that proves your vaccination).

I have been looking around for clear explanations how the QR codes on these vaccine passports or physical QR cards can be checked against a national (reliable) database. In the US the NY Excelsior app, a "passport" developed with help of IBM, has been shown to be fakeable. The answer should be to have checkers use an app to scan the QR code of the person passing the gate, in order to check whether they are really vaccinated as claimed, but ID would also have to be presented (unless photo is in the database). Whether any of these "passports" are so conceived to totally unclear. 

[placnx]

On 4/14/2021 at 8:30 AM, Peter Denis said:

 

You wrote quite correctly that > other mechanisms have to be put in place to "convince" people to vaccinate.

And indeed vaccine passports are one of the main mechanisms to do so.

As Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bathacharrya wrote in their April 7 article published in the Wall Street Journal > The vaccine passport should be understood not as an easing of restrictions but as a coercive scheme to encourage vaccination.
They further wrote in that article <

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-passports-prolong-lockdowns-11617726629

> The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does.

And they are not anti-vaxxers, far from that, but lone scientific voices of reason in a world that has gone mad.

 

Of course vaccine passports will be pushed by Big Pharma, because creating the need for a 'still valid' stamp in that passport, is a guarantee for repeat big business.  

And make no mistake, once those passports are introduced they will be used to deny/allow attending social events and required or peer-pressured by some employers.

 

A couple of thoughts/questions to put this in perspective:

- A vaccine passport is not an 'immunization' passport - so a test that proves that you have anti-bodies (e.g. from earlier infection) is not a 'vaccine', thus forcing everybody that was earlier infected and did overcome the infection the natural way via their immune system to take the jab;

- People that for medical reasons cannot take the vaccine, will be ostrachized - this is already happening in Israel where vaccine passports are made mandatory to attend social events;

- Healthy people with non-challenged immune-systems - typically the young - are reduced to 'walking bio-hazards' unless they opt for continual (life-long?) vaccination with a passport to prove it.

 

There is no such thing as the 'new' normal which is Newspeak for the dystopian future we are slowly coerced into.  With expressions like 'social distancing' (an asocial practice) and Stay Safe as the new greeting for the pathological afraid-of-their-own-shadow.

 

Vaccine Passports Prolong Lockdowns - WSJ _ April 2021.pdf 889.06 kB · 0 downloads

It is highly regrettable that the editorial section of WSJ persists in publishing rants by Kulldorff and Bhattacharya in their futile anti-lockdown campaign. After all we have learned from when they started last September with their Great Barrington Declaration, promptly denounced in the Lancet, the idea of just letting young people get infected is irresponsible if not unethical. They reside on a libertarian fringe of the medical profession, and the recent gathering of the Florida governor, Scott Atlas, Bhattacharya, Kulldorff, and the UK import Gupta, lasting two hours was removed from YouTube as misinformation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/09/desantis-youtube-coronavirus/

[jerrybuice]

Glad to hear this. I see the government has realized isolation is worse than socializing. In the US, the states that did not go under lock-down actually faired much better than the states that did. There are other whole countries that never went under lock-down and they too faired much better than the ones that did. Not only better sickness rates but economic! People have become hysterical about a virus that the recovery rate is better than 98% of those that even catch it! In the mean time whole countries are going bankrupt as well as people losing their business, their homes, their cars...etc.