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Thailand reports 1,547 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths


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10 minutes ago, BookShe said:

Why? Why, Why? There has to be a scapegoat to cover your incompetence. They can't use the same excuse all the time. Dirty farangs, check. Illegal immigrants, check. Entertainment venues, check. Hoteliers are getting ready.

 

The vast majority of the people involved in the Thong Lo venues and the COVID clusters there have been said to be young working-age Thais who often like to travel around from venue to venue, as do some employees and performing staff, even going from places in Bangkok to several surrounding provinces.

 

 

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It may be the case that testing won’t produce any more than 1500 or so confirmed cases, due to limits on testing.

It would be nice to know the exact number of tests conducted each day, and then ask yourself why are they not testing more folks.

Here is the testing numbers and positive case count that I've put on a chart for the 8th - 14th April (I'll do the following week once its updated). As you can see on the 14th April there were 8,722 t

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1 hour ago, cocoonclub said:

There will be a gap, of course, but I hope it’s not that many days. I got tested, together with a group of friends, the weekend of 9-11 April at different hospitals and drive-thru facilities. All of us had their results back within 1-2 days max. I think those who tested positive got it a bit earlier (1-1.5 days) because they were called by the hospitals whereas the negative ones were waiting and eventually called the hospital themselves. Not sure how efficient the reporting and consolidation chain from test to report works but I would hope it’s not several days. 

I agree that the person having the test could get their results quicker. Maybe I should have put it better, that it can take time for the figures to feed into the officially reported numbers. Its the same in UK, if you have the time and conviction to analyse all the reporting charts the date a positive is reported can be 3-4 days after the result is released into the official daily figures. PHE used to do a graph which showed date test compared to reported date. Very complicated but then that's why  the number boffins are employed to digest the figures.

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14 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:


Thanks for the great information. I had been tracking tests per day from the “situation” tab of the English language version of the MOPH site. In those figures you need to subtract the previous days numbers from the overall tally to get the number is tests. The number shown there is vastly different to these numbers (about 5,000 tests per day but that only goes up to about 8 or 9 days ago). The information around testing seems unclear given these 2 vastly diffeeent sets of numbers presented by the same agency.

 

Is this the kind of data you're referring to, from the MoPH's April 12 situation report?

 

Screenshot_18.jpg.511448434f7245b846e378aded89422f.jpg

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no459-120464.pdf

 

I'm not seeing how that gives you any idea of daily testing volume, unless you're going back and comparing the top line total on cumulative tests with the comparable number from the prior day's report.

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1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Various people here keep  asking about the levels of COVID testing occurring in Thailand. With moderator Sheryl's help, we have located a current MoPH website that contains the testing data.

 

Here's an Excel file that shows the total volume of testing and the numbers of positive case daily dating back to January 2020. It gives some idea of the volume of testing that's been occurring. The highest daily number I saw in quickly scanning the file was 36,098 tests back on Jan. 11, 2021.

 

But I also think we need to be careful about drawing any positivity rate conclusions from the data, because it mentions that the test numbers include repeat tests.

 

The other caveat at the moment is the latest report data only covers thru early April, so thus far is missing most of the current third wave outbreak in April.

 

http://nextcloud.dmsc.moph.go.th/index.php/s/wbioWZAQfManokc

 

COVID Testing-no charts.xlsx 21.63 kB · 2 downloads

 

 

There's also a chart MoPH included in their briefing the other day that I believe indicates their network of testing labs has the capacity to do more than 80,000 COVID tests per day.

 

1903215249_COVIDLabTests2.jpg.0ceafb67007f2d1e7dd572d0e139f6f0.jpg

This site also shows total lab tests and breaks down numbers into PUI etc.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

These MOPH sites shows total laboratory tests so not sure why figures differ. Casts more confusion and doubt on reports I think if you're of  the cynical kind.

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8 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

Maybe I should have put it better, that it can take time for the figures to feed into the officially reported numbers.

To clarify, my point was that, with the lab taking 1-2 days based on my experience (which is actually quite fast given the amount of tests), I was hoping that the reporting and consolidation of results up the chain shouldn’t take another 2-3 days on top of that. On the other hand, if they report wrong numbers because they rushed things, the public would also blame them. 

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3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It would be nice to know the exact number of tests conducted each day, and then ask yourself why are they not testing more folks.

They are probably not testing more people because they are trying to ration Test Kits.

Last week it was reported there were only 300,000 - 400,00 test Kits available Nationally.

That is not very many, as the Authorities are finding about 1500 cases positive each Day now, its fair to assume they are testing at least 10 Times that number to find a positivity rate of 10 % tested. Thats 15,000 test kits per Day minimum.

Or, the other scenario is that the Authorities know exactly where to test, and are using only 1500 test kits per Day.

 

 

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4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

In an effort to source additional COVID vaccine doses, a Thai government spokesman said the country has begun talks about acquiring new vaccines from makers in the United States and Russia.

 

Specifically, Bloomberg News reported that those discussions include seeking doses of the Pfizer vaccine, which has not been available or used in Thailand thus far in the pandemic.

 

The Thai government said earlier this week that the main vaccine in its arsenal will continue to be plans to locally produce a version of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is due to begin distribution nationwide in June.

 

259203591_ThaiGovtinTalkswithPfizer-Bloomberg.jpg.4c300e6d496f2191adb05c9ed8837d93.jpg

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/thailand-to-tighten-curbs-as-virus-flareup-imperils-tourism-plan

 

 

 

I do so hope this comes about,fingers crossed !

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In a graphic today, the Ministry of Public Health noted that Thailand's death rate (case fatality rate) from the coronavirus pandemic thus far is running 0.24%, with 99 official deaths out of a total of 40,585 official cases.

 

That is quite a low rate compared to many other countries, if in fact Thailand is capturing and recording all COVID related deaths as such. The country also seems to be benefiting thus far from the fact that many of its recent cases have been in younger to middle aged working people as opposed to elderly populations, who are more vulnerable to severe COVID outcomes.

 

78140732_DeathRate.jpg.674d0d4a98b17327c0c2ea8f2614be9b.jpg

 

The MoPH also provided comparable death rate data broken down by the so-called three different waves of COVID infections in the country:

 

First wave 2020: 60 deaths out of 4,237 cases -- 1.42%

 

Second wave late 2020-March 2021: 34 deaths out of 24,626 cases -- 0.14%

 

Current third wave April 1-13 -- 3 deaths out of 5,712 cases -- 0.05% (not including the two new deaths reported today)

 

Screenshot_21.jpg.d4c3eeb50c47472b894dc03c06b961ee.jpg

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/307648330853498/

 

 

 

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The following official rules for Thais to qualify for free COVID testing and treatment, provided they meet one of the qualifying provisions in the third paragraph.

 

Screenshot_21.jpg.c13b6f4082057d4b224c0e4b9393b69b.jpg

 

The National Health Security Office (NHSO) will cover the cost of COVID-19 health services for all Thai people regardless of whether they are registered for healthcare schemes.
 
According to the NHSO, every Thai at risk of contracting COVID-19 can get a free test and treatment at any public or private hospital.
 
They must also have a history of linked to one of the following three risk factors, including have visited COVID-19 high-risk areas in the 14 days before developing any of the symptoms, have stayed in or visited places/countries with COVID-19 cases in the 14 days before developing the symptoms, and work in quarantine facilities.
 
 
I think by now, every Thai would at least qualify under the second provision -- have stayed in or visited places/countries with COVID-19 cases in the 14 days before developing the symptoms, unless that section is only meant to apply to places outside Thailand.
 
Edited by TallGuyJohninBKK
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1 hour ago, BookShe said:

Why? Why, Why? There has to be a scapegoat to cover your incompetence. They can't use the same excuse all the time. Dirty farangs, check. Illegal immigrants, check. Entertainment venues, check. Hoteliers are getting ready.

I do think it is a combination of all these and then some. 

 

Not fair to blame one particular group when it is probably all of them from top to bottom including many not mentioned.

 

Question is, will they fix it? That is what im worried about. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, beano2274 said:

Why the breakdown of Thais and Aliens, surely they are all in Thailand, all the BMA is doing is making people resent the foreigners who live and work in Thailand even more.

 

 

It's epidemiology 101. It allows for more focussed testing and tracing. The alien percentage is very high relative to the population size of aliens vs Thais. For whatever reason, alien infection is relatively more common than among Thais at this time - mainly due to their occupations and living style. The percentages are likely to change if it becomes uncontrolled among the general population.

 

Someone just recorded positive in my village - she only knew she was positive as she is due to have an operation, and all patients are tested for covid. She has no idea how she contracted it, which is a cause for concern. She has now had to got to hospital in Chonburi as beds are full in our area (Nonthaburi). I know of another colleague of my wife that is infected, so the infection is out and about now. 

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1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

Or, the other scenario is that the Authorities know exactly where to test, and are using only 1500 test kits per Day.

This sounds about right 

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2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And there you have it in a nutshell.  Not testing en-mass, but still testing.  Would more testing find more cases, I am sure it would.  Does this government want that in light of the accolades they have had showered upon them, No they don't.  If vaccination is the way forward and out of this mess, then they need to jump on the ball and get moving, as they are way behind places that could return tourism to the country as they truly want.  Double edged sword, and Damned if you do and Damned if you don't.  A clear and transparent picture and cohesiveness would be nice to see, as well as this government helping the people instead of themselves.  Makes me sad really.  

More people would probably come forward if they didn't have severe symptoms and thus could isolate at home (and not sent to some field hospital). Though that's not viable in many families here as they often share rooms for sleeping / bathing etc. I know someone who just tested positive, and is asymptomatic. She has been sent to a different province as there are no beds locally. I can't blame those with no symptoms not wanting to get tested. 

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Unlike the news of the fake sale of Koh Som Island, the growth and spread of Covid-19 is on an exponential curve and not non-exponential as some are saying here on this OP.  The only reason the curve has not continued to curve straight up can be found in the test stats that @TallGuyJohninBKK has posted above.  When you look at the chart you will see that testing has been carried out not en-mass and when it kicks back into full gear once Monday rolls around I would expect to see the numbers continue climbing.  Already many reports are coming in via different provinces of cases growing.  Stay safe folks.

Edited by ThailandRyan
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A year ago the Govt were bragging about all the billions of Baht that been budgeted to deal with Covid and there was no shortage of hospitals beds and ventilators, nothing to worry about, we are in control. Now with a mere ~1,500 CV19 cases the Country can't cope and Ad-hoc measures in full swing, asking for donations, WHY? What's going to happen if cases balloon to 5-10K daily? T.I.T. Reactive not Proactive.. As Private Fraser said in Dad's Army 'We're doomed" 🤣🙃

 

Bit like maintenance, the word doesn't exist in the Thai dictionary. Thais wait until something breaks and then fix it, assuming they have the funds to do so..

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6 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

if 1 infected person lives together with his or her wife or husband, than there would be 2 infected and if they had made contact with 1 other person each... I think there would be a lot more cases. But 4 days on a row about 1550 is very curious

There's no reason why that should necessarily be true. It sometimes happens that one person passes it to others they live with but there have also been lots of cases where one person in a house got infected but no other household members did.

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A post commenting on a fellow forum member has been removed, along with several replies.

 

Please note the following forum rule:

 

25) No public discussion is allowed with regard to other forum members

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3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well I am glad you don't want to see the information posted so you can make an informed decision about what truly is happening in the country as of now and how it is spreading.  Of course you probably don't believe any of the covid information he is posting is real.  Try again or better yet just don't look at the forum at all.  

I can google all the covid news links if I wanted to. I come to TV for interesting discussion rather than multiple random news link postings...

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The number of +ve CV19 are bound to increase once the Songkran returnees come back to BKK assuming they haven't conveniently run out of test kits. No tests, no cases, simples...

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25 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Already many reports are coming in via different provinces of cases growing. 

Can you  provide links to said reports please?

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24 minutes ago, Nojohndoe said:

Can you  provide links to said reports please?

Unfortunately they are from Facebook groups and not verified so I can not add in the link. and I should preface my prior post with the words unverified.  Most of those I saw said they will be reporting those extra numbers tomorrow. 

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I think Thailand is well past the limits of contact tracing.  

A very high % of people who feel sick will not seek tests or medical help unless they can't breath for fear of being shipped off to some far province or field hospital.   

I can add that the US embassy has canceled K1 visa interviews for next week.  They are only scheduled on Monday and Tuesdays.  

1618663733590.jpg

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In acknowledgement of the general opinion being that those who have the  authority to do so have made a dangerous error of judgement in consideration of all the relevant factors including known sources of imminent spread, rising numbers attributed to same, public expectations re' "promises" about allowing Songkran despite last minute restrictions it would seem clear that only a relatively small amount of time  will tell as to extent or not of that error.

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3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Unfortunately they are from Facebook groups and not verified so I can not add in the link. and I should preface my prior post with the words unverified.  Most of those I saw said they will be reporting those extra numbers tomorrow. 

I can report that it is currently raining  in my Thailand location which is in contradiction of the general local weather  forecast . I can proclaim this but I am currently unable to provide irrefutable evidence of the fact.

 I would suggest  your  declaration of  reports about  provincial covid  cases  should indeed  be qualified as anecdotal !

 

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