snoop1130 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 FILE PHOTO: Construction workers are seen in a building in Bangkok, Thailand March 8, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Silva BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy could lose 100 billion baht ($3.19 billion) a month, mainly in the service sector, a university said on Thursday, as the tourism-reliant nation deals with a third COVID-19 wave and a highly contagious variant. The new outbreak, which has seen over 18,000 cases in just 22 days, might reduce the number of workers by 149,000 a month, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said. The university expects the new wave to be controlled within two or three months like the previous outbreaks, cutting gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.2% to 1.8%, university president Thanavath Phonvichai told a briefing. "If there will be economic stimulus measures, the economy may grow 1.2% to 1.6% this year," Thanavath said, adding the university's current forecast was for 2.8% growth. Household debt levels might rise to 92% of GDP this year as the outbreak has cut income and jobs, he said. The debt hit 89.3% of GDP, the highest since records began, at the end of 2020, when Southeast Asia's second-largest economy suffered its deepest slump in over two decades due to the pandemic. The new spread, which accounts for more than a third of Thailand's cases so far, also comes as the country takes tentative steps to reopen to foreign visitors after a year of tightened border controls. -- © Copyright Reuters 2021-04-22 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brierley Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Put a different way, GDP could fall by 7% per year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sammieuk1 Posted April 22, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted April 22, 2021 And inexplicably the Baht will remain unbelievably strong still awash with the fabled foreign currency reserves no doubt???? 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webfact Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 Third wave of COVID-19 has cost the Thai economy 200-300 billion baht By Praphorn Praphornkul BANGKOK (NNT) - Analysts are encouraging the state to step up remedies for the COVID-19 situation, after assessing that the third wave of infections has cost the economy 200-300 billion baht and could cap growth this year at 1.6 percent. President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and head of the Economic and Business Forecasting Center, Thanawat Polwichai, has assessed the third wave of COVID-19 infections is costing the country 100 billion baht a month in economic activity and is cutting demand for labor by about 148,000 people a month, while calling for vaccination efforts to be expedited and rehabilitation of the economy to be accelerated. The economist suggested that the government inject 200-300 billion baht into the financial system to spur activity and to provide aid to businesses, especially SMEs. Proposed courses of action include bolstering SME liquidity, finding revenue sources for them and suspending debt repayments. His center has held off adjusting its economic outlook for the year, at 2.8 percent growth, but has indicated it may have to cut the prediction to 1.6 percent if no action is taken by the state. Up to 60 percent of chambers of commerce across the country have reported an impact from the third wave of infections and called it the worst yet. They explained that, while no lock down has been called, the compound effect of the three waves has severely impacted businesses. Their assessment is that, even if the situation is concluded by June this year, it will take two years for businesses to return to normal and 15 months for provincial economies to normalize, in terms of consumption and investment. -- © Copyright NNT 2021-04-23 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 47 minutes ago, webfact said: and could cap growth this year at 1.6 percent. So, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3.5%, 3%, 2.8% now 1.6%. Total joke these financial wizards. It will be ZERO at best with no opening, get used to it and plan for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brierley Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 GDP size and growth isn't a factor in determining Baht strength, GDP could be 20% lower than today and the Baht would stay exactly where it is. GDP growth of whatever, does it really matter this year, under the circumstances? Don't forget though, when the government spends money to bail out this and that and gives handouts to people, that money counts towards GDP, if they give away enough money, GDP growth could even be 10% this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Excel Posted April 22, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted April 22, 2021 1 hour ago, RichardColeman said: So, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3.5%, 3%, 2.8% now 1.6%. Total joke these financial wizards. It will be ZERO at best with no opening, get used to it and plan for it. That's the level of incompetence you get when you can buy degrees. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 5 hours ago, webfact said: Analysts are encouraging the state to step up remedies for the COVID-19 situation, after assessing that the third wave of infections has cost the economy 200-300 billion baht and could cap growth this year at 1.6 percent. I wonder if Prayut figured this into the calculations when he decided to open up the whole country during Songkran, even allowing Red Zones to travel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isaan sailor Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 16 hours ago, sammieuk1 said: And inexplicably the Baht will remain unbelievably strong still awash with the fabled foreign currency reserves no doubt???? My thoughts exactly. Easy to worry about things going wrong, but they need to realize that the overpriced Baht is the real 800-pound gorilla in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen65 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 We need Thailand's government borrowing debt as a proportion of GDP to go up and the economy to stall ,so that the Thai baht will hopefully go down !! Good for us farangs with pensions and income from overseas ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Excel Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jen65 said: We need Thailand's government borrowing debt as a proportion of GDP to go up and the economy to stall ,so that the Thai baht will hopefully go down !! Good for us farangs with pensions and income from overseas ! Well in the short term that would be nice but invariably a weak baht will cause the cost of imports to go up. It imports much of its oil and gas and gasoline and diesel will rise significantly hurting the already poor 90% even more. Inflation will wreak further havoc to the poor. Of course those with millions won't give a damn as their money is safely stowed elsewhere but in the long term the bahts collapse , or partial collapse will make the poor poorer and no, people won't be streaming back here on holiday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickymouse1 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 It may and may not but in reality the economy will follow the trend. Growth might be less than 1% v 3% published by the CBT. I very much doubt the 10% growth in exports for the year as published by the CBT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParkerN Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 1 hour ago, RichardColeman said: So, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3.5%, 3%, 2.8% now 1.6%. Total joke these financial wizards. It will be ZERO at best with no opening, get used to it and plan for it. Agreed. whenever I see a picture such as the one heading up this topic, I want to laugh. I just can't take these people seriously. Which seems fine because they evidently take themselves seriously enough for all of us. But is really shouldn't be this way. I struggle to think of any aspect of the country which is well-managed, so it isn't just these talking heads, it seems like it's a national cringe problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natway09 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Check the export levels before writing off Thailand's fiscal position at year end. Imports are also down. I agree that the Covid/Songkran travel policy handling was crazy & am sure the PM realizes he made a decision from the heart instead of the brain. The Thonglor BIB again accepted bribes to go blind, as did the border patrols up North. His staff let him down. Now we have a moving target so very difficult to predict when there would be a recovery. The Health Minister's handling of the vaccine procurement has been nothing short of ransom of the country but in fairness to him he is being instructed from much higher up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParkerN Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Just now, natway09 said: Check the export levels before writing off Thailand's fiscal position at year end. Imports are also down. I agree that the Covid/Songkran travel policy handling was crazy & am sure the PM realizes he made a decision from the heart instead of the brain. The Thonglor BIB again accepted bribes to go blind, as did the border patrols up North. His staff let him down. Now we have a moving target so very difficult to predict when there would be a recovery. The Health Minister's handling of the vaccine procurement has been nothing short of ransom of the country but in fairness to him he is being instructed from much higher up Oh come on. Made a decision from the heart instead if the brain? That's how he makes all of his decisions, the man's a numpty, pure and simple. For goodness' sake "His staff let him down". Gimme a break. As for being instructed 'from much higher up'... Friend, you badly need to stop looking for excuses not to blame this guy for what is essentially a master class in balls-ups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spidermike007 Posted April 23, 2021 Share Posted April 23, 2021 Would Prayuth say this loss was worth it, to avoid the optics of an early lockdown in Samut? Little pain felt at the top of the tower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargeezr Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 I have just heard from my Thai family, that in the last day or so there is a large spike in the number of COVID cases. Is it from the variants that are now in the country? Geezer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now