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Expectations December '21


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Should we build expectations for the last period of the year ?

 

There's a lot of hype going on lately but Thailand is currently way behind and clearly losing the vaccine race.

 

I know its very soon to predict results, but doubt farangs will book trips if Pattaya cannot guarantee a similar scene like the old times

 

For all Euro/Usa users around here, you guys think its worth to plan holidays for Dec-Jan ?

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You have to remember all countries have their own entrance and exit criteria.

 

Imagine going on a holiday and getting banged up with a positive covid test and being stuck their under their rules and regulations?

 

The question is it worth it to risk or not?

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At a guess, December 2021 will probably still require quarantine on entering Thailand and, depending on where you come from and will return to, possibly quarantine when returning home too.

 

It's hard to see Thailand opening up for visitors without the need for quarantine until the majority of Thais are vaccinated - and that does not look likely to happen this year.

 

Personally, I figure the second half of 2022 is when I can return to Thailand without any need for quarantine.

Edited by mstevens
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It may be several years more.

Seriously.  With the variants and the information that vaccine booster shots will probably be necessary

after the original vaccination, sadly I do not see this place organized enough to handle any of it. 

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Frankly, as disorganized as it can be in Thailand, I'd say this year is unrealistic for your holiday. Next year, perhaps. End of next year may be a safer bet, or 2023 for sure.....

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Stay home, save your money. And is there nowhere in your own country worth visiting for a holiday? I've read that in my native UK many local places are booked out as people have been forced to turn back the clock about 30+ years and holiday at home instead of jumping on a plane.

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24 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

I've read that in my native UK many local places are booked out as people have been forced to turn back the clock about 30+ years and holiday at home instead of jumping on a plane.

Fish and chips and Kiss Me Quick hats in Blackpool, heavens, no no no!

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It will still be under an "Emergency" with all the fun stuff disallowed and all the mask/social distancing, etc rigidly enforced.  This will probably be the model for the distance future.
The PTB said that there is no going back to "normal."  And New normal will be a quasi-dystopia.  Have fun! 
Easier living in the rural boondocks.  Fewer cops and the ones who are there don't really enforce anything.

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If you test positive upon entry, you will go to a hospital, not a quarantine site.  That could be quite expensive.

 

Pre-flight tests are not reliable.  Recently out of 88 people who tested negative before leaving India, 53 tested positive upon arrival in Hong Kong.

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Well I'll be there for December, January and February. Yipee. In fact I've just come back from 3 months in the LoS. The quarantine wasn't so bad - got a lot of work done and a great suntan on my large balcony overlooking the sea. And when I got out of quarantine, the ladies were very glad to have hansom man customer like me. 

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Any rush to open up or relax social distancing will have the result as experienced in Mediterranean countries.

Look at the state of India, the same India that the government have apparently been tempting to holiday in LoS , imagine the consequences of a plane load of Indians arriving in bkk!

Realistically tourists will not return in any great numbers until at least 2023.

 

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2 hours ago, Caldera said:

I think this year will be pretty much a write-off as far as international tourism is concerned. 

 

Probably for the long-run too.  Government bureaucracies crave wielding power as well as creating additional bureaucratic regulations and restrictions.  Every hear of a bureaucracy streamlining itself.  No, they tend to keep building additional layers of, well, bureaucracy.
So, will Thailand cut back all of the recently implemented rules, regulations, requirements, and restriction to travel to cross the border into the center of the known universe - Prathet Thai?  I seriously doubt it.  I don't seeing them going back to say, 30 day visas on arrival, circa 2019 and before. If anything, Immigration get increasingly restrictive while rolling out red carpets to the foreign wealthy who probably don't have much interest.  As far as regular tourists, backpackers, and retirees looking for a second home - the expensive regulatory gauntlet that ain't going away, imho, will put the brakes on a significant percentage of international travel that used to have Thailand as a tour destination.  People will go where it's less expensive and less restrictive.  I may be wrong, but I don't think so.

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11 hours ago, DogNo1 said:

Pre-flight tests are not reliable.  Recently out of 88 people who tested negative before leaving India, 53 tested positive upon arrival in Hong Kong.

You think it is a factor of the tests or of the validity of the paperwork? Indians seem high numerically when it comes to arriving in countries infected,

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Working in commercial aviation the past 40 years, meeting with Boeing and Airbus every week, current predictions are that commercial air travel will not return to pre-covid levels until at least Q4 2023. With vaccines in the US ramping up, domestic travel will be the first to improve. International travel will be the last to improve with Q4 of 2023 being the latest model prediction. That date could move into 2024 as other countries Covid situation worsens in the future. That is the model based prediction from the 2 largest aircraft manufacturers in the world.

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25 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

That is the model based prediction from the 2 largest aircraft manufacturers in the world.

Well thanks, but didn't one of them also go with the A380 and the other the 737-Max! Hard thing to predict, but they do need to plan....  if nothing upsets the UK progress along with other countries in advanced vaccination stages I hope we do better. 

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No way to really know that far out. Possible it could turn towards the end of the year. The travel stuff is going to be more of a chore though, unless your young and your head is on right.

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41 minutes ago, Johnny Mac said:

 

Let's get one thing straight here, the UK as a country for scenery, landscape, countryside, villages, pubs, restaurants, etc absolutely knocks spots off of Thailand, no comparison whatsoever. The downside of course that there is no cheap beer or brasses widely available, and you generally have to 'behave' yourself at the risk of offending one and all, and of course you could get knifed to death on the way back from a very nice country boozer 🤪 

 

Agree with every word.

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