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Thai March exports unexpectedly jump 8.5%, hit record value


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2021-04-23T035341Z_1_LYNXMPEH3M04G_RTROPTP_4_THAILAND-ECONOMY-TRADEFIGURES.JPG

FILE PHOTO: A view of the port of Bangkok, Thailand May 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's exports unexpectedly jumped 8.47% in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 28 months, boosted by higher shipments of cars and car parts, rubber products and plastic pellets, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

 

That compares with a fall of 0.48% forecast in a Reuters poll and a 2.59% decline in February.

 

March's export value of $24.22 billion was a monthly record, the ministry said.

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-04-23
 
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"March's export value of $24.22 billion was a monthly record".

 

This is probably some of the biggest economic news in almost a year, it's interesting that there's hardly been any posters comments about it in the 12 hours since the news was announced. Perhaps the economy isn't going down the toilet after all!

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39 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

We sleep at night, you know?

 

$24 billion is an extraordinary good export month, record breaking!

Looks like the export sector is carrying the weight of the Thai economy and only the tourist and domestic economy is taking a hit from the pandemic. 

It is still bad news for the 6 million unemployed Thais.

Would have been good if the journalist included import in the article,  but I guess that is too much to ask about. 

Exports were actually USD 24.2 bill., imports came in at USD 23.5 bill. so the trade surplus is USD 700 mill., expect THB to strengthen on Mondays opening.

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1 hour ago, Brierley said:

"March's export value of $24.22 billion was a monthly record".

 

This is probably some of the biggest economic news in almost a year, it's interesting that there's hardly been any posters comments about it in the 12 hours since the news was announced. Perhaps the economy isn't going down the toilet after all!

Posters will only comment when its negative. Quite a few find every excuse to connect bad news to the sinking of the Thai baht. The destruction of Thailand and so on. 

 

The poster @Excel claimed a bank run and so on a a while back. Never saw him back in that topic. 

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5 minutes ago, Brierley said:

Exports were actually USD 24.2 bill., imports came in at USD 23.5 bill. so the trade surplus is USD 700 mill., expect THB to strengthen on Mondays opening.

Actually it was $24.22 billion! 🤩

Very narrow trade surplus after 6 months of trade deficit. 

I will expect the baht to stay flat, we might see a few more months with a deficit.

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Interesting to see the history of the balance of payments over time. If you see below you can quite clearly see the 97 crash happening in real time, contrast that with the last six years. The trade surplus is just one component of the current account, secondary income is also a big contributor.

 

image.png.1b36027d9211aece8efead6bd73e5f98.png

 

https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/thailand/current-account-balance

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It looks like Thai bonds are back in fashion also, that means capital inflow will increase:

 

There’s a slice of the Thai yield curve for everyone.

Local investors are bidding up shorter-dated bonds as the spread of Covid-19 in the country convinces them to seek out the safest assets. Global funds are buying longer maturities after the yield premium over Treasuries improved and on the prospect of baht gains.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-22/thai-bonds-in-turnaround-mode-after-poor-start-to-the-year

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I was actually more interested in the current account balance as a whole rather than just the trade surplus/deficit. It looks as though the current account was in deficit in November through February to the tune of US 4 bill. Trade on the other hand was only in deficit during one month, as your chart shows, down US 202 mill. in January. The difference between those two things is the losses from the other components of the current account which include overseas investment and international transfers and this seems to be where the biggest financial damage has come from since November last year. I was trying to understand exactly what things are, do you know? I think one of those overseas components is secondary income but I don't know what that contains. Anyway, the financial damage to the Thai economy does not appear to have come from falling exports but from those other things in the current account which rely on overseas input.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/current-account

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22 hours ago, Brierley said:

Exports were actually USD 24.2 bill., imports came in at USD 23.5 bill. so the trade surplus is USD 700 mill., expect THB to strengthen on Mondays opening.

Well lets see. Against the GBP Friday it was trading at 43.44

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11 minutes ago, Brierley said:

Let's use the currency THB is actually measured against shall we!

 

Spot rate 31.3970    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/THB:CUR

No. Just because you know your prediction will be proven to be incorrect again you attempt to sneak out of it.  What I read are the economic experts from the financial markets, not amateurs on here who hate to be wrong and then distort what they actually said without specific definition. You said it would gain without definition of currency. However if you can not grasp that then at the same time Friday , just for you on XE.com, a recognised FX method, the US $ was 31.38

 

11 minutes ago, Brierley said:

Let's use the currency THB is actually measured against shall we!

 

Spot rate 31.3970    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/THB:CUR

Blloomberg, what amateur expert uses that ? But never mind we shall use a recognised international FX on Monday, Should we bet how far you will be wrong ?

Edited by Excel
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A post containing content that was copy and pasted from image.png.f155d7b0dffbb0e495ac2d262a0f296a.png has been removed:

 

26) The Bangkok Post and Phuketwan do not allow quotes from their news articles or other material to appear on Thaivisa.com. Neither do they allow links to their publications. Posts from members containing quotes from or links to Bangkok Post or Phuketwan publications will be deleted from the forum.

 

Some troll posts discussing other members have been removed:

 

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On 4/25/2021 at 6:13 AM, Brierley said:

Let's use the currency THB is actually measured against shall we!

 

Spot rate 31.3970    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/THB:CUR

Technically the Baht opened up but for all intents and purposes it's flat, expat oilworker was correct, he wins. Next I imagine we're probably going to see a challenge about the definition of "markets open", well, for the rest of the FOREX world that's the point where Thompson/Reuters  hands control back of the FOREX market, to the banks, the screen grab below tells the story. It was interesting that BOT's announcement  this morning regarding their revised GDP forecast was released at exactly the same time as control was handed back to the banks, that news would have helped offset Fridays news about record exports.

 

image.png.6401be859a60c4ebeb7a5cf5bf22421e.png

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Brierley said:

Technically the Baht opened up but for all intents and purposes it's flat, expat oilworker was correct, he wins. Next I imagine we're probably going to see a challenge about the definition of "markets open", well, for the rest of the FOREX world that's the point where Thompson/Reuters  hands control back of the FOREX market, to the banks, the screen grab below tells the story. It was interesting that BOT's announcement  this morning regarding their revised GDP forecast was released at exactly the same time as control was handed back to the banks, that news would have helped offset Fridays news about record exports.

 

image.png.6401be859a60c4ebeb7a5cf5bf22421e.png

 

 

I win? wow thanks. I usually never win anything. 

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On 4/25/2021 at 6:18 AM, Excel said:

No. Just because you know your prediction will be proven to be incorrect again you attempt to sneak out of it.  What I read are the economic experts from the financial markets, not amateurs on here who hate to be wrong and then distort what they actually said without specific definition. You said it would gain without definition of currency. However if you can not grasp that then at the same time Friday , just for you on XE.com, a recognised FX method, the US $ was 31.38

 

Blloomberg, what amateur expert uses that ? But never mind we shall use a recognised international FX on Monday, Should we bet how far you will be wrong ?

So the huffin and puffin amateur economic experts on here were as expected out of their depth with their predictions. XE.com now stating GBP to THB at 43.68  was 43.43. Friday similar time and US $ similarly up to 31.42. 

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5 hours ago, Excel said:

So the huffin and puffin amateur economic experts on here were as expected out of their depth with their predictions. XE.com now stating GBP to THB at 43.68  was 43.43. Friday similar time and US $ similarly up to 31.42. 

Good news for many of us. It is now 43.76 THB = 1 GBP. Looks like those "claimed" export figures would strengthen the baht fooled no one apart from a few "experts" on TV.  Let's see if it breaks the 44 barrier this week. A few more apparent inconsequential  figures from this corrupt government should ensure that. It may fool one or two on this forum but not the world, especially as they claim it is the US$ that moves and other currencies follow , the myth is destroyed when the dollar is currently trading as it was 9 hours ago ,strange that 😂

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Comparing exports this year with last year is not really very useful, as everything distorted by Covid. How does it compare to 2019?

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This is interesting, I wonder what happened, intervention perhaps? It's not your typical run of the mill intraday stuff.

 

image.png.28950693befb9d8b4add695bbf30f6d6.png

 

EDIT: or more likely perhaps, news that new car sales increased by 25% YoY.

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New info.
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On 4/26/2021 at 8:49 AM, Brierley said:

Technically the Baht opened up but for all intents and purposes it's flat, expat oilworker was correct, he wins. Next I imagine we're probably going to see a challenge about the definition of "markets open", well, for the rest of the FOREX world that's the point where Thompson/Reuters  hands control back of the FOREX market, to the banks, the screen grab below tells the story. It was interesting that BOT's announcement  this morning regarding their revised GDP forecast was released at exactly the same time as control was handed back to the banks, that news would have helped offset Fridays news about record exports.

 

image.png.6401be859a60c4ebeb7a5cf5bf22421e.png

 

 

Are we playing again this month?

April's trade numbers should be out in a few days.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Are we playing again this month?

April's trade numbers should be out in a few days.

If you like, what's your call? 

 

The Balance of Trade figures are out on Friday 21st at 10:30, markets are calling USD 1.8 bill, an increase from USD 0.71 bill. 

Edited by Brierley
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On 4/25/2021 at 6:04 AM, Excel said:

Well lets see. Against the GBP Friday it was trading at 43.44

And now 44.65

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10 hours ago, Brierley said:

If you like, what's your call? 

 

The Balance of Trade figures are out on Friday 21st at 10:30, markets are calling USD 1.8 bill, an increase from USD 0.71 bill. 

My guess is that we will have a small trade deficit in April and the baht will drift slightly lower, toward 31.5 to the US dollar.

 

Ur call?

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

My guess is that we will have a small trade deficit in April and the baht will drift slightly lower, toward 31.5 to the US dollar.

 

Ur call?

 

Hmm, tricky! Since you've gone with a small deficit I'll say there will be a small surplus, I think they'll come up with a surprise.

 

The value of THB is even more tricky. The one year forecast is easier at 30.50. You've gone with (up to) an 8 satang weakening of THB from todays value of 3.42. I'll bet THB strengthens to 1.35 or better. :))

 

image.png.e20e7ccf7fbe3f42a40d93d2633c2ab4.png

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTHB:CUR

 

thailand-balance-of-trade.png

Edited by Brierley
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9 minutes ago, Brierley said:

THB from todays value of 3.42, I suppose I'll have to go with the opposite yet again, it'll be stronger than 3.42. B

You should have edited typos, rather than your opinion. That is a mighty weak baht! 🤪

 

I will be a gentleman and let you go first when we do May next month. 

 

For April's game show you win if the baht is below 31.34 and I win if it is above 31.50, using 31.42 as the pivot point.

Let's use close of business Monday as cut off point?

That will give the market time to react.

 

Any other players?

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32 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

My guess is that we will have a small trade deficit in April and the baht will drift slightly lower, toward 31.5 to the US dollar.

 

Ur call?

BTW, what time of day on the value of the currency pair, noon Thai time OK?

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1 minute ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

You should have edited typos, rather than your opinion. That is a mighty weak baht! 🤪

 

I will be a gentleman and let you go first when we do May next month. 

 

For April's game show you win if the baht is below 31.34 and I win if it is above 31.50, using 31.42 as the pivot point.

Let's use close of business Monday as cut off point?

That will give the market time to react.

 

Any other players?

Sorry, I'm having fingers problems this AM, perhaps you've noticed..:)

 

Agreed on all points, you're a gentleman.

 

 

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On 5/19/2021 at 6:44 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

You should have edited typos, rather than your opinion. That is a mighty weak baht! 🤪

 

I will be a gentleman and let you go first when we do May next month. 

 

For April's game show you win if the baht is below 31.34 and I win if it is above 31.50, using 31.42 as the pivot point.

Let's use close of business Monday as cut off point?

That will give the market time to react.

 

Any other players?

31.37 right now, are you getting nervous?

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