THA: 80% of hotels shut till October - won't be back to normal until 2023

[webfact]

 

The chief of the Thai Hoteliers' Association painted a grim picture of the current situation in Thailand in an interview with Channel 3. 

 

Only one in 20 rooms in Thai hotels was occupied.

 

Marisa Sukosolnunphakdee said that information from her members suggested that business in April was 30% down on March.

 

Total occupancy in the organisation's hotels was at 5%.

 

80% of their hotels would be shut until October when it is hoped that the pandemic will show signs of abating and the vaccine rollout will be in full swing.

 

She indicated that only larger hotels were open and that hotels that catered to foreign tourists were all shut down for now. 

 

Her assessment was that things would only return to normal in 2023. 

 

She called on the government for help with paying staff wages, help with loans and interest payments and continued tourism stimulus measures. 

 

 

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[SmartyMarty]

I feel very sorry for all those, both here and overseas, caught up in this economic disaster through no fault of their own.

[BritManToo]

My phone told me this morning 47% of Thai hotels only have 3 months liquidity left.

That will mean a lot of 'closed' hotels.

[robblok]

5 minutes ago, SmartyMarty said:

I feel very sorry for all those, both here and overseas, caught up in this economic disaster through no fault of their own.

Yes many people are hurting, nobody saw this coming. 

[ThailandRyan]

The few hotels around us that closed last March (2020) are still shuttered.  One wonders how a large company like Marriot or Aetas can afford to have these buildings shuttered and still pay staff to come in and clean them as well as paying the security guards who attend to the building as well as the one or two engineers who are needed to ensure everything continues to work.  On the flip side the power usage and water usage is down tremendously.  The pools are still being serviced at those locations as well as I can see them from my Condos Balconies, and I wonder why they just do not drain them.  I would venture to guess that soon they will be out of liquidity and these buildings will be on the commercial real estate sales listings.

Edited May 4, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My phone told me this morning 47% of Thai hotels only have 3 months liquidity left.

That will mean a lot of 'closed' hotels.

Saw that article as well.

[Ventenio]

1.5 years ago........smiles, EVERYONE working, everyone seemed to have money, hope.....you would wear a mask in CM during smoky season......and Thailand had SOO MANY tourists that they didn't seem to want any more...

 

Now......everyone is selling food (better than coffee) to make ends meet, no smiles, everyone is cancer to everyone else, everyone wearing a mask, not enough tourists to support a few hotels, and all "fun" activities have been put on hold while nobody has a clue if their parents will get COVID or not.

 

what helps?  speaking Thai and going to the same places over and over.  also exercising seems to tell people you are strong.

 

I would say we are in Part 6 of 10.   After part 10, someone will be mad with China.  Then we start Part 1 of 200.  

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

One wonders how a large company like Marriot or Aetas can afford to have these buildings shuttered and still pay staff to come in and clean them as well as paying the security guards who attend to the building as well as the one or two engineers who are needed to ensure everything continues to work.   

One wonders indeed.

 

Add to that the "back to normal" mirage which moves further in time with each passing month, and soon Thailand is going to find itself with hundreds of buildings/former hotels empty and decaying.

 

This will be like the 1997/8 crisis...squared!

[robblok]

8 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The few hotels around us that closed last March (2020) are still shuttered.  One wonders how a large company like Marriot or Aetas can afford to have these buildings shuttered and still pay staff to come in and clean them as well as paying the security guards who attend to the building as well as the one or two engineers who are needed to ensure everything continues to work.  On the flip side the power usage and water usage is down tremendously.  The pools are still being serviced at those locations as well as I can see them from my Condos Balconies, and I wonder why they just do not drain them.  I would venture to guess that soon they will be out of liquidity and these buildings will be on the commercial real estate sales listings.

I think shuttering down hotels is the only viable option. There are no or almost no tourists. I think having staff will only make things more expensive. Though I don't know how Thai labor law works. I just think that they make less of a loss closing it and having less staff then to keep it open and get a few (local) tourists. 

 

Businesses depending on tourists alone are suffering a lot, but not just here all over the world. 

[Johnny Mac]

6 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

1.5 years ago........smiles, EVERYONE working, everyone seemed to have money, hope.....and Thailand had SOO MANY tourists that they didn't seem to want any more...

 

 

 

Made up nonsense. It wasn't like that at all.

[Justgrazing]

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

Her assessment was that things would only return to normal in 2023

 

Given the top of the class buffoonery being practised on a daily basis by those running the show that may be closer to the reality of the situation facing Thailand than any of TaT's fantasies .. 

[Pattaya Spotter]

Judging by what I see around Phuket, 2023 might be optimistic. A lot of hotels are going to need much refurbishment to re-open...laying fallow in the tropical sun does no good for their paint, pools, and gardens.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[kingofthemountain]

32 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The pools are still being serviced at those locations as well as I can see them from my Condos Balconies, and I wonder why they just do not drain them. 

To not drain the pools makes perfect sense for now

By not draining the pool, they save money.

Keeping water in the pool helps to prevent the liner from drying out, shrinking and cracking.

An empty pool is far more prone to liner wear and damage.

[Poet]

21 minutes ago, Johnny Mac said:

 

Made up nonsense. It wasn't like that at all.

1.5 years ago was December 2019.

That was the peak of the high season, Thailand was packed with tourists, in particular Chinese. There was certainly no indication of what was to come just a few months later.

It may not be precisely true to say that everyone had a job, but that the general feeling of the time. It was certainly true that the Thais were not particularly bothered if Western tourists kept coming because the Chinese seemed to be a far more profitable prospect.

To say that "It wasn't like that at all" is, well, made up nonsense.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Poet

[Andy from Kent]

27 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

what helps?  speaking Thai and going to the same places over and over. 

 

 

I've hear others extoll the virtues of speaking Thai but I never heard it's helpful in  avoiding COVID-19.  ????

[WineOh]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Her assessment was that things would only return to normal in 2023. 

That is a very, very optimistic view IMO.

 

My view is that 'normality', if one is referring to pre covid tourist numbers of 40 million a year will never be reached again.

Thailand, along with every other country, will have to start their tourism campaigns from scratch, and they wont be the only country in this region fighting for holidaymakers. Cambodia, Vietnam & Laos will all be chomping at the bit to recoup those lost tourist dollars, so Thailand better shape up or s**t out!

 

The organic numbers of yesterday will never be seen again.

The only hope they have at getting anything close to those numbers is through targeting huge Chinese group tours all year round.

 

I for one ain't looking forward to that.

Edited May 4, 2021 by WineOh

[Pattaya Spotter]

35 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The few hotels around us that closed last March (2020) are still shuttered.  One wonders how a large company like Marriot or Aetas can afford to have these buildings shuttered and still pay staff to come in and clean them as well as paying the security guards who attend to the building as well as the one or two engineers who are needed to ensure everything continues to work.  On the flip side the power usage and water usage is down tremendously.  The pools are still being serviced at those locations as well as I can see them from my Condos Balconies, and I wonder why they just do not drain them.  I would venture to guess that soon they will be out of liquidity and these buildings will be on the commercial real estate sales listings.

I've stayed at many such places in Phuket...MAYBE 5% occupancy (at 50-75% rate discounts).  I guess it's enough to pay the skeletal cleaning, security, and maintenance staff and keeps the place from deteriorating in the tropical sun.

[nausea]

Twenty twenty-three sounds about right. All of these guys and gals hanging on by the skin of their teeth will be long gone. My SO's son had a prime job in a five star resort, they didn't mess around, just mothballed the place straight away, wise decision given how things have developed.  Personally, I'm more interested in how the flight industry will settle down; like what kind of prices are we going to be paying for long haul flights. 

[Poet]

1 minute ago, WineOh said:

pre covid tourist numbers of 40 million a year will never be reached again.

Thailand, along with every other country, will have to start their tourism campaigns from scratch.

I do not understand this thinking.

Say we accept the premise that, as the vaccination schemes continue in most Western countries, they are heading towards what Israel has already achieved: 10 new infections per million per day, which meets the "zero-covid" standard set by countries such as Singapore and South Korea.

We also know that the vaccines also reduce transmissability by 66%, so, a planeful of tourists flying in from a zero-covid country poses almost no biological risk to the Thai population, certainly far less than the uncontrolled flow of migrants over land borders from neighbouring countries.

We also know that most countries will be rolling out their "digital covid certification" and online verification portals during June.

Given that an exotic vacation is one of the first things that fully-innoculated citizens of those Western countries will want, and given that they have spent a year saving and paying off their credit card debt, and given that the airlines are eagerly waiting to take their expensive planes out of storage and start flying again ...

... given all that, why, exactly, would millions of tourists not want to start flying into Thailand again, and why would Thailand not want these perfectly safe visitors come and save all these hotels on the verge of bankruptcy.

I am not saying that they will get back up to their peak numbers this year but this coming high season could easily be busier than 2019.

 

[WineOh]

Just now, Poet said:

... given all that, why, exactly, would millions of tourists not want to start flying into Thailand again

because there are cheaper places to visit than Thailand.

 

Thailand will no be a luxury destination for wealthy people.

The backpackers will never return and like it or not they contributed significantly to tourist numbers annually.

 

I see only the rich chinese and 1 or 2 westerners coming for christmas in the future.

[ozfarang]

This is what Agoda says regarding occupancy next week. You just have to induce the punters to be quick or prices will go up.

BS

 

[VocalNeal]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

80% of their hotels would be shut until October

 

The word "their" is important here. For the casual observer. Samall upcountry hotels and guest houses are unlikely to be affected so for the majority of expats who live here life will carry on.

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, Poet said:

I am not saying that they will get back up to their peak numbers this year but this coming high season could easily be busier than 2019.

You have been saying that now for over 6 months in prior posts regarding your belief that tourism will rebound and there are millions wanting to come here.  You may be right but it wont be this year or next year and possibly not until 2024.  You may have friends who want to visit, but until this thing is handled and as you can see, its a giant poopfest right now.

Edited May 4, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Poet]

4 minutes ago, WineOh said:

because there are cheaper places to visit than Thailand.

People have saved more money than you think. After a year of putting their lives on pause, they want adventure, they want to get out into the world. Thailand really is high on their lists.

 

6 minutes ago, WineOh said:

Thailand will no be a luxury destination for wealthy people.

The backpackers will never return and like it or not they contributed significantly to tourist numbers annually

Perhaps we are talking about different groups of people. I never considered backpackers to be a particularly important demographic here, not since the 80s anyway. By the 90s, Thailand started attracting the lower-middle class Europeans who, previously, would have gone to Spain. Sure, the backpackers still come, but they have long been outpaced, in both numbers and spending, by "regular" tourists.

Thailand now has broad appeal across all classes and types of tourist.

 

10 minutes ago, WineOh said:

I see only the rich chinese and 1 or 2 westerners coming for christmas in the future.

The Chinese who come to Thailand are actually mostly factory workers from the South of China.

I suspect that more than 2 Westerners will be here this Christmas.

 

[Poet]

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You have been saying that now for over 6 months in prior posts regarding your belief that tourism will rebound and there are millions wanting to come here. 

Yes. I have been saying it for 6 months because it has been obvious since it became clear that the vaccines would be effective.

Any survey of post-lockdown consumer intention make it clear that, yes, millions of people want to come here. Even without the surveys, is that not obvious?
 

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You may be right but it wont be this year

Why not?

If the tourists are biologically safe, if they are coming from "zero-covid" countries, if the vaccines prevent 100% of hospitization and 66% of transmission, if the airplanes exist, if the hotels exist, if people need jobs, and if government need taxes.

If you are aware of any other factor that can logically support your contention that "it wont be this year or next year and possibly not until 2024", why not let us know what it is?

I see this sentiment expressed a lot in this forum, but it seems to be driven by a sense of doom and schadenfreude rather than solid reasoning.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Poet

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

She called on the government for help with paying staff wages, help with loans and interest payments and continued tourism stimulus measures. 

The answer was the sound of silence and cancellation of any new travel schemes, so that fell on deaf ears

[Brunolem]

22 minutes ago, Poet said:

Say we accept the premise that, as the vaccination schemes continue in most Western countries, they are heading towards what Israel has already achieved: 10 new infections per million per day

We also know that the vaccines also reduce transmissability by 66%, 

Israel is an outlier rather than a reference.

 

It is very unlikely that the vast majority of countries will repeat Israel's performance.

 

On top of that, remember that, according to the vaccine manufacturers themselves, the vaccines are efficient for only 6 months, meaning that the whole vaccination campaign will have to be repeated indefinitely.

 

Then, there are other issues beside the Covid pandemic, such as fighting climate change and the implementation of the infamous Great Reset, both of which are not in favour of mass tourism.

 

Instead of a return to the happy days of 2019, one should rather expect a lengthy march toward 1984 (not the year, if you see what I mean).

 

 

[lkv]

31 minutes ago, Poet said:

By the 90s, Thailand started attracting the lower-middle class Europeans who, previously, would have gone to Spain.

 

Yes, and that trend has been reversed in 2014, when less and less Westerners came to Thailand, and streets started to fill with Chinese travellers.

 

The majority of Europeans have no clue where Thailand is on the map, they travel to Spain and Greece.

 

The only reason some of them went to Thailand before, is because airfares got ridiculously cheap, i.e 300-400 pounds/euro return, and hotels / food were also cheap. So they thought they could have a more exotic vacation at the same cost.

[Phuketshrew]

Beggars belief why they can't use all these empty hotels for quarantine facilities instead of trying to use filthy, run down factory/warehouse buildings.

[edwardandtubs]

55 minutes ago, ozfarang said:

This is what Agoda says regarding occupancy next week. You just have to induce the punters to be quick or prices will go up.

BS

 

Nobody was ever stupid enough to believe that kind of urgency marketing were they?