From winner to loser: Thailand’s downhill battle with COVID

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Not yet....far too early.

3 weeks now from initial infections during Songkran, plenty of time for infections to turn into fatalities. 

 

 

[4MyEgo]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

I am just trying to be precise, because some people believe everything they read on the internet. 

 

You don't believe that the government is making up numbers, you just don't think they test enough. 

 

Do you think they are testing enough in Chonburi? 

 

What I believe is that you and I will differ, lets just say, that the sooner we all get vaccinated, we won't have to have differences on what we think on Covid numbers anymore.

 

That should do it. Oh and as for governments, lol, I don't trust them, so there is one for you.

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

3 weeks now from initial infections during Songkran, plenty of time for infections to turn into fatalities. 

 

 

What?......how quickly do you think people die from the infection?

 

it can take up to two weeks for any symptoms to present themselves for a start.

[Kadilo]

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

3 weeks now from initial infections during Songkran, plenty of time for infections to turn into fatalities. 

 

 

Do yourself a favour and go do some reading. You’re making yourself look a total chump. 

[Danderman123]

Just now, Kadilo said:

Do yourself a favour and go do some reading. You’re making yourself look a total chump. 

 

 

Unless you want to make people think you are a troll, explain why my numbers are wrong. 

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

What?......how quickly do you think people die from the infection?

 

it can take up to two weeks for any symptoms to present themselves for a start.

What do you think is the average lag between infection and death? 

[Rhacsyn]

56 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks

I have to admit I am surprised that Thais are as disciplined as they are. But I think with some things it's basically impossible to restrict them. I.e. gambling. It's illegal, but somehow the authorities don't find all those gambling dens which the clients find easily...

About Songkran: I think it does not make much sense to restrict something which basically can't be restricted. Sometimes things have to be allowed because in reality it can't be efficiently controlled.

 

 

So nice to read your OP, the original as well. A different but clear view and perspective on it all. People may agree or disagree with your approach but you have certainly got me out of a depression. For today at least. Thanks 

[Surelynot]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

What do you think is the average lag between infection and death? 

18.5 days

 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Surelynot said:

18.5 days

 

How many days between Songkran and today? 

[Surelynot]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

How many days between Songkran and today? 

55555....you really think that is how it works.....???

[Surelynot]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

How many days between Songkran and today? 

First confirmed case UK 5th Feb............ peak deaths 13th April.........10 weeks later

[Fromas]

Danderman, a few weeks ago the authorities made a surprising request for out-of-province Bangkokians to WFH.

Think about why they did that.

[DirtyHarry55]

Think they were very very lucky last year with so few cases, the first strains weren't strong enough for Thailand's hot climate

Now the new strains are much more resilient than before let's hope Thailand doesn't turn into a second India.

When entering a shopping mall's everyone used the same old pen to sign in most don 't wash their hands after either,

and how many use the same old mask day in day out and does checking everyone's temperature really do any good?
Oh and someone please tell them face shields aren't a replacement for masks.

[Surelynot]

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

How many days between Songkran and today? 

Although this says Thailand it is effectively Bangkok........

[FarFlungFalang]

16 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

How many days between Songkran and today? 

The virus takes a little time to establish it's self in a new community  before starting to spread to the more vulnerable maybe a couple of weeks at least to start infecting those vulnerable to the virus.So maybe start the count from 2-3 weeks after Songkran, but we will see if the virus plays out because I think nobody has told the virus it should behave the way we think it should.

[Danderman123]

9 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

First confirmed case UK 5th Feb............ peak deaths 13th April.........10 weeks later

You lost the plot here. 

 

The question is the average time for an infected person to die. If there were 50,000 infections in the provinces right after Songkran, then some of those infections would be expressed as fatalities by now. I'm not saying that peak fatalities would be happening now, just a large number. 

 

In your chart, you are showing chains of infections leading to peak fatalities. What you are really trying say is that if the first mass infections in the provinces began on April 15, then peak fatalities would happen in June. 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The ongoing third wave of COVID-19 underlines one thing: Thailand is no longer a champion in managing the contagion, and that has a lot to do with its government.

It has everything to do with the government, by not procuring vaccines form overseas, and standing deliberately in the way of private enterprises from buying vaccines in favour of holding the country at a standstill until it's favoured in-house supplier starts to manufacture for the population.

[Fromas]

That's not how it works, Danderman.

 

Unless your testing regime has 100% sampling, is 100% sensitive and 100% accurate, the numbers take time to swell up.

 

It is far too early to conclude that Songkran travels did no damage to the other provinces.

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Fromas

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Fromas said:

That's not how it works, Danderman.

 

Unless your testing regime is 100% sensitive and 100% accurate, the numbers take time to swell up.

You are not explaining why we are not seeing 50,000+ infections in the provinces after Songkran. 

 

You are not doing analysis, you seem to be in denial, but unable to explain why I am wrong. Try working the numbers. Maybe less than a million people left Bangkok, maybe the positivity rate was less than 5%, there are reasons why my analysis could be wrong, but the Doomsayers can't be bothered with numbers

[Fromas]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are not explaining why we are not seeing 50,000+ infections in the provinces after Songkran.

 

Maybe we are not seeing 50,000+ infections because there aren't any.

However, it is more likely a combination of latency, limited testing and asymptomatics.

 

That said, I sincerely hope you're right.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Fromas

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Fromas said:

 

Maybe we are not seeing 50,000+ infections because there aren't any.

However, it is more likely a combination of latency, limited testing and asymptomatics.

 

That said, I sincerely hope you're right.

 

 

So, you believe that there are very large numbers of people infected during Songkran out there somewhere? 

 

Let me ask this again: many people from Bangkok went to Pattaya during Songkran. Given the heavy testing in Chonburi, where are the infections? 

[Fromas]

It's too early to tell. Check back end of May.

[Fex Bluse]

This is what happens when the charade is up and you can no longer hide and your incompetence behind well-crafted propaganda.

 

They should take lessons from China - kick out or threaten all foreigners, lock down the media, push out constant propaganda about how perfect everything is.

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, Surelynot said:

To be fair we simply don't know what the spread is or will be like.............fingers crossed it will be contained in the multitude of small Issan villages which is where most poor Bangkokiinas will have travelled for Songkran.

We do know, to some extent.

 

We do know that provincial hospitals are not being swamped with walk-ins with Covid symptoms.

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

This is what happens when the charade is up and you can no longer hide and your incompetence behind well-crafted propaganda.

 

They should take lessons from China - kick out or threaten all foreigners, lock down the media, push out constant propaganda about how perfect everything is.

The government is doing an adequate job of containing the epidemic, using targeted random sampling in hot zones. The zones are identified by large numbers of symptomatic patients presenting in hospitals.

 

As a result of the government effort, the number of new infections has leveled off over the last two weeks.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

The government is doing an adequate job of containing the epidemic, using targeted random sampling in hot zones. The zones are identified by large numbers of symptomatic patients presenting in hospitals.

 

As a result of the government effort, the number of new infections has leveled off over the last two weeks.

You're just making your own ignorance shine now, carry on by all means

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

You're just making your own ignorance shine now, carry on by all means

I have been posting for 10 days that all the positivity data we have now indicates the epidemic is flattening out.

 

You have been forecasting gloom and doom, and providing astronomical positivity rates, 10% or higher nationwide.

 

As I have said for the last ten days, actual numbers of cases will tell us who is right, and who is wrong. Spoiler alert: case numbers have been flat, consistent with a 5% positivity rate.

[Pravda]

Just imagine when soi siped variant hits the streets 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

I have been posting for 10 days that all the positivity data we have now indicates the epidemic is flattening out.

 

You have been forecasting gloom and doom, and providing astronomical positivity rates, 10% or higher nationwide.

 

As I have said for the last ten days, actual numbers of cases will tell us who is right, and who is wrong. Spoiler alert: case numbers have been flat, consistent with a 5% positivity rate.

Again your ignorance sparkles. 

 

5% is 5 in every hundred people, it only take one to start an outbreak again.

[Dogmatix]

Now it is very clear that last year they just got lucky.  They are not clever and they did't use the breathing space to prepare for a more severe outbreak and only set up a half arsed vaccine programme.  It is the reverse of the UK government that made a horlicks of the outbreak but somewhat redeemed itself with a vigorous vaccine roll out while the EU had its head stuck up its whatsit.