Must Read Thailand reports 3,095 COVID-19 cases, 17 new deaths

[ThailandRyan]

18 minutes ago, sungod said:

Yep, have to agree the numbers are higher than last year, you can blame the UK strain for that.

Of which we stated before the Songkran travel started, as we already knew the UK strain was present in the Entertainment venue clusters.  That is why we stated that it would become many cases once the travel began and that eventually the virus UK variant reached all 77 provinces.  

[Marvin Hagler]

25 minutes ago, sungod said:

The mass of clusters you are others predicted around the country due to songkran have not happened, you should be the one looking at the stats and apologising. The clusters have remained in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces that were there before songkran, how can that be down to travel?

 

What we do have is a more virulent strain causing all the current problems. I thought man so fixated with the current situation may have noticed that?

The reported clusters...what of the unreported or undetected ones? You would have to be incredibly naive to think there aren’t any.

[Suua]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I live on the planet where most provinces have very low infection numbers.

I live on the planet where most provinces have very low infection  reported numbers..........I think you'll find is more accurate.

[Nojohndoe]

In my lowly opinion the songkran travel effect has occurred but luckily with a smattering of cases in many places which even officialdom has acknowledged in terms of origin.

The big difference is in the ability to contain on the micro scale meaning track and trace and test efforts are easier to perform. There have been lock downs of  villages as part of that process.

The macro scale in the greater Bangkok area or other high density urban locations makes it a more daunting task to cope with the logistical numbers alone and certainly not helped by various degrees of avoiding detection with fear of obligatory detention being greater than of the virus.

Had the Thai authorities not prevaricated over the early immediate need for a wide scale vaccination program the ongoing economic cost will probably exceed that which it should  have invested in vaccines/orders many many months before.

 

[Bkk Brian]

19 minutes ago, sungod said:

Seems most of the world are having problems with all these new more virulent strains, not just Thailand. Hopefully once the vaccination program eventually kicks in things will start to open up, but this will be around for a long time and things wont return to pre covid levels for some considerable time.

yea but we're not in most of the world, we're in Thailand, this was brought about by the UK strain and complacency of the authorities to deal with it knowing through solid evidence its far more contagious, now we are left with the results of their inaction and continued spread that needs to be reduced. That can only be achieved with strict lockdown breakers and vaccinations.

[Danderman123]

25 minutes ago, Suua said:

I live on the planet where most provinces have very low infection  reported numbers..........I think you'll find is more accurate.

You would have to provide some data to support your assertion. 

 

If you live in a province, do you think their reported numbers are wrong? 

[sungod]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

yea but we're not in most of the world, we're in Thailand, this was brought about by the UK strain and complacency of the authorities to deal with it knowing through solid evidence its far more contagious, now we are left with the results of their inaction and continued spread that needs to be reduced. That can only be achieved with strict lockdown breakers and vaccinations.

The economy is already in dire straights,  it is now a balancing act and accepting some risk, basic risk management. Individual risk tolerance will always be different, but someone has to make the call.

 

I'm dont think any country (Islands aside maybe) have contained these more infectious variants without a good vaccination program as part of their arsenal, that is clearly is lacking here. With the tools they have had in Thailand they haven't done a bad job overall so far but the strategy wont last for much longer, time to get the finger out and run a good vaccination program.

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, sungod said:

The economy is already in dire straights,  it is now a balancing act and accepting some risk, basic risk management. Individual risk tolerance will always be different, but someone has to make the call.

 

I'm dont think any country (Islands aside maybe) have contained these more infectious variants without a good vaccination program as part of their arsenal, that is clearly is lacking here. With the tools they have had in Thailand they haven't done a bad job overall so far but the strategy wont last for much longer, time to get the finger out and run a good vaccination program.

Agree with vaccinations but there is far more they can do in terms of measures to control this, instead of prolonging it and making the economic disaster worse than it already is.

 

Science comes in to play here and what effective measure work and those that have less impact.

[Olmate]

2 minutes ago, sungod said:

The economy is already in dire straights,  it is now a balancing act and accepting some risk, basic risk management. Individual risk tolerance will always be different, but someone has to make the call.

 

I'm dont think any country (Islands aside maybe) have contained these more infectious variants without a good vaccination program as part of their arsenal, that is clearly is lacking here. With the tools they have had in Thailand they haven't done a bad job overall so far but the strategy wont last for much longer, time to get the finger out and run a good vaccination program.

 

 

 

Which now underway.. No? 

[brewsterbudgen]

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

yea but we're not in most of the world, we're in Thailand, this was brought about by the UK strain and complacency of the authorities to deal with it knowing through solid evidence its far more contagious, now we are left with the results of their inaction and continued spread that needs to be reduced. That can only be achieved with strict lockdown breakers and vaccinations.

I totally agree that a widespread vaccination program is the answer.  Lockdowns cause more harm than good, especially when they are so badly thought-out like the ones here!

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I totally agree that a widespread vaccination program is the answer.  Lockdowns cause more harm than good, especially when they are so badly thought-out like the ones here!

Then we have to agree to disagree, numerous studies already carried out on that.

[sungod]

15 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Which now underway.. No? 

I said 'a good one' me old mate ????

[Olmate]

13 minutes ago, sungod said:

I said 'a good one' me old mate ????

Yeah it’s underway, prefer this to the one in Oz .

[Danderman123]

40 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I totally agree that a widespread vaccination program is the answer.  Lockdowns cause more harm than good, especially when they are so badly thought-out like the ones here!

If we include actual history, your opinion is.... Not connected to reality. 

[brewsterbudgen]

25 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

If we include actual history, your opinion is.... Not connected to reality. 

I accept that, but I disagree.  The total lock-down in Wuhan and other Chinese cities was successful in dramatically saving lives, but the political cost of such draconian action would (in my opinion) be unacceptable. Very few other places have taken such strong action as it would have unacceptable  economic, social and political consequences.   Pandemics occur every century or so, and regrettably people die.   A total lock-down will reduce deaths but at what long-term cost?  Of course, the semi-lockdowns like we have here are even less effective and yet still have economic and social consequences.

Edited May 16, 2021 by brewsterbudgen

[EricTh]

That reminds me of the days when Japan didn't want to report the virus cases stranded in a ship on a port in Japan.

 

If the prison is inside Thailand, it should be reported as part of the total covid cases in Thailand. 

[Suua]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

You would have to provide some data to support your assertion. 

 

If you live in a province, do you think their reported numbers are wrong? 

Yes.......I know of a few who are riding it out

[Dogmatix]

Prisoners don't count, as they have no human rights, even those not yet found guilty of any offence but locked up awaiting trial.

[Dogmatix]

On 5/15/2021 at 8:44 AM, dinsdale said:

This should take Thailand to 92 on the covid worldomter. 100,000+ infections tomorrow.  This is all down to one person. The one who should have enforced a hard lockdown nation wide for 7-10 days after the Thong Lor outbreak raised it's ugly virus spreading head and allowing Songkran travel to proceed and tell the nation and the world "Whatever will be will be." Guess the "it's stabalising at 2000 a day" crowd may have to change to "it's stabalising at 3000 a day".

 

They may be followed by the 4,000 crowd and the 5,000, 6,000 and 7,000 crowds until it starts skippng whole thousands on its way up to somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000. That is what happened in Italy and Spain last year and 20,000 to 30,000 for Thailand would be a similar situation to what is happening in India relative to the population.  By that stage it hard to report new cases and deaths accurately. In India they don't even have a clear idea how many are dying now. A large proportion of COVID cremations are not reported.  They just get ready for the next one.  Many families are too poor to pay for afuneral and cremation and just dump their deceased loved ones in a local river. 200 corpses were fished out of the Ganges alone yesterday.   

[Dogmatix]

Most of the Thai deaths are down to the stupidity of one man who decided to let the virus run its course threw the population, rather than take the tough decision to lock down before Songkran, and failed to order vaccines in time. 

 

Add to that the corruption involved in letting the VIPs come back from their gambling trip in Cambodia without having to quarantine which created the Thonglor strip club cluster. The police are being bery careful to protect the travelling VIP gamblers and the owners of the strip clubs.  It is widely alleged that a prominent member of a well known retail family was amongst the VIP super spreaders who enjoy cross border gambling and large doses of silicon in Thonglor. 

[Pattaya Spotter]

21 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Perhaps some misunderstanding. 
 

my post was in reference to the opening of Phuket on 1st July, approximately 6 weeks away, the need for 70% of residents to be “vaccinated” for herd immunity and the information releases from several local and central government officials giving reassurances about the ability to reach the vaccination target.

 

given the time line for fully effective vaccination, planning for a July 1st date doesn’t seem logical.

Sorry if I misunderstood your post. Regarding the July 1 Phuket re-opening, why do you feel it's not possible to vaccinate 70% or so of the residents by then? There aren't that many people here at the moment...almost all of the hotel, massage, resto, and other service workers long ago left to return to other provinces. It's just anecdotal, but the local residents that I talk to daily all say they've been vaccinated...twice...already. 

[phills2k1]

2 hours ago, EricTh said:

That reminds me of the days when Japan didn't want to report the virus cases stranded in a ship on a port in Japan.

 

If the prison is inside Thailand, it should be reported as part of the total covid cases in Thailand. 

Also happened in the US last March when Trump didn't want a cruise ship to dock.  His exact words were, "I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault"

[wensiensheng]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Sorry if I misunderstood your post. Regarding the July 1 Phuket re-opening, why do you feel it's not possible to vaccinate 70% or so of the residents by then? There aren't that many people here at the moment...almost all of the hotel, massage, resto, and other service workers long ago left to return to other provinces. It's just anecdotal, but the local residents that I talk to daily all say they've been vaccinated...twice...already. 

I met my first vaccinated people last week when I called at my lawyer to sign some documents. First thing she told me was that she and the three girls at the office had received both jabs. On the other hand, I know of no one else and my barber told me his vaccine appointment had been cancelled due to “not enough vaccine”. True or not? I don’t know but that’s what he told me.

 

sorry I don’t have a link but I believe even the Phuket authorities are only claiming that 20% of the population has been vaccinated. Maybe I’m wrong on that, but it’s what I recall. And  If they are already well on the way to 70%, why such a fanfare about more vaccine arriving last week and more to come next week.

 

all in all, I don’t think they are close to 70%, in which case, it’s practically impossible to get it done by July 1st. The time taken for 2 doses tells me that.

 

I will say that it seems there is a full court press to get cases down. When I went for my normal run at Nai Harn lake today I found that the lake had been closed off at two points blocking the road to cars, motor bikes and cyclists. Access to the beach also blocked to cars. At each block point we’re two 6 foot signs, one thai, one English, spelling out the COVID restriction requirements. It is all much the same as when the total lockdown was in place last year.

 

Bangkok, deep red, restaurant restrictions relaxed. Phuket orange status, 4 cases yesterday, restrictions “enhanced”. Hope the unicorn tourists that come in July are worth it.

 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

I met my first vaccinated people last week when I called at my lawyer to sign some documents. First thing she told me was that she and the three girls at the office had received both jabs. On the other hand, I know of no one else and my barber told me his vaccine appointment had been cancelled due to “not enough vaccine”. True or not? I don’t know but that’s what he told me.

 

sorry I don’t have a link but I believe even the Phuket authorities are only claiming that 20% of the population has been vaccinated. Maybe I’m wrong on that, but it’s what I recall. And  If they are already well on the way to 70%, why such a fanfare about more vaccine arriving last week and more to come next week.

 

all in all, I don’t think they are close to 70%, in which case, it’s practically impossible to get it done by July 1st. The time taken for 2 doses tells me that.

 

I will say that it seems there is a full court press to get cases down. When I went for my normal run at Nai Harn lake today I found that the lake had been closed off at two points blocking the road to cars, motor bikes and cyclists. Access to the beach also blocked to cars. At each block point we’re two 6 foot signs, one thai, one English, spelling out the COVID restriction requirements. It is all much the same as when the total lockdown was in place last year.

 

Bangkok, deep red, restaurant restrictions relaxed. Phuket orange status, 4 cases yesterday, restrictions “enhanced”. Hope the unicorn tourists that come in July are worth it.

 

 

Try Kata Beach...better beach and fully open...been scuba diving the offshore reef all week. July 1 is still a month and a half away...plenty of time if they put the pedal to the metal.

[wensiensheng]

22 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Try Kata Beach...better beach and fully open...been scuba diving the offshore reef all week. July 1 is still a month and a half away...plenty of time if they put the pedal to the metal.

I was walking on kata beach this morning at 7.30. It’s great when there are no tourists. Hell when there is.
 

AZ needs two jabs 4-12 weeks apart, then a further 10 days to be fully effective. July 1st looks a little tight to me. But if no tourists come, it’s of no consequence.

[Petey11]

15 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Sorry if I misunderstood your post. Regarding the July 1 Phuket re-opening, why do you feel it's not possible to vaccinate 70% or so of the residents by then? There aren't that many people here at the moment...almost all of the hotel, massage, resto, and other service workers long ago left to return to other provinces. It's just anecdotal, but the local residents that I talk to daily all say they've been vaccinated...twice...already. 

So they vaccinate all local people, vaccinated tourists come flooding back, who is going to service those tourists in the hotels, beaches, restaurants, bars, shops etc. Those who left the island to go back to their home provinces will want to come back to work. Oh but wait, they cannot because they aren't vaccinated yet. How they going to sort that one out?

[Olmate]

25 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

So they vaccinate all local people, vaccinated tourists come flooding back, who is going to service those tourists in the hotels, beaches, restaurants, bars, shops etc. Those who left the island to go back to their home provinces will want to come back to work. Oh but wait, they cannot because they aren't vaccinated yet. How they going to sort that one out?

How hard would it be to vaccinate the few thousand workers...duh!

[Pattaya Spotter]

24 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

So they vaccinate all local people, vaccinated tourists come flooding back, who is going to service those tourists in the hotels, beaches, restaurants, bars, shops etc. Those who left the island to go back to their home provinces will want to come back to work. Oh but wait, they cannot because they aren't vaccinated yet. How they going to sort that one out?

I doubt there will be a "flood" of tourists anytime soon; the plan is to get on with vaccinations so the island can reopen safely and slowly start to return to normal. This will take many years and one of the reasons is what you point out...a shortage of vaccinated Thai workers from the rest of Thailand.