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Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins


george

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Whilst bloodlust is somewhat melodramatic, this election, may well presage an increase in divisiveness, which for decades Thailand has sought to ameliorate. Where that will lead is difficult to say, possibly to the creation of a more diverse political ecosystem, or more concerning to deep fissures within society, to which the traditional 'one person' solution may not bring resolution.

Regards

PS Connexion has ground to a crawl, so sorry for broken postings

Edited by A_Traveller
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Its sad to see that the majority of Farangs here do not respect the Thai peoples right to democratically elect a government of their choice.

What is sad is that this election, like every election I have witnessed over the past 20 years, is not based on democratically electing a government. It is based on the ability to buy votes through a combination of direct purchases and patronage based promises of future remuneration, in cash or in kind.

Yeah, that is sad. Democracy in SE Asia, not such an easy thing to pull off.

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It is a bit too early for me to weigh in but this can only spell trouble if the early numbers are accurate.

It's never too early to weight Thai's election. Issan is a big count and you could tell by that.

wolfmanjack: Considering the news i did not stock up enough before they quit selling.
How much more do you want? :o
kurtgruen: Have you ever noticed that you drink more during prohibition?

Say don't and I do.

If there is anything that I have learned in Thailand is information is less than accurate and in particularly this emotional charged topic. It would not take much to start a rumor that could make the streets run red. If the local ‘Seven Eleven’ is sold out of alcohol in particular Thai favored brands then I would probably not make it a late night out. I would say the morning would bring more accurate accounts of the early tally. Things to watch for are canceled hotel reservations and or the desire to head to vacation/holiday destination ‘B.’

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My wife's family have now arrived at my house; they've only been here for about forty-five minutes and I'm already shunned and vilified by them for daring to suggest that the PPP victory is a disaster for Thailand ( PPP cha na......... Thailand kwahm-haai-ya-na)

It turns out that all of them are madly in love with Thaksin and Samak.

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The Nation newspapers unofficial but regularly updated results show that PPP only need to link up with their former bed-fellows Pua Pandin to form a majority. if they decline there are many other small partied who could fill the breach.

The Democrats would need to form a coalition with every other party bar PPP

The Generals will probably find ways to prevent PPP forming a government whilst a Democrat led multi party coalition is likely to flounder very quickly.

With vote-buying rife in Isan as usual, the only hope for future elections and Thailand is to somehow or other completely eliminate vote-buying. really tough penalties must not only be on the statute books but fully enforced!

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My gut reaction to this vote (if it turns out as predicted) is that the people of Thailand have expressed a desire for blood lust.

Would you like to explain that comment further?

"Bloodlust"? How on earth did you come to that conclusion?

I said gut feeling, Not conclusion.

To analyze why I feel this way. The Thai people were offered a more peaceful UNITED path out of this morass. A weak democratic PM with a coalition government. Instead they voted for the Thaksin surrogate, a party they know the current military government can't allow to take total power (so if they won't can this still be settled without blood? Not clear, is it?), and also a party with a solid history of mass extra-judicial murders.

Thus my feeling that the people of Thailand have voted for a blood letting.

Correct me if I have got it wrong, but the way I interpret what you are saying is; -- the people know the military will not accept the democratic vote if the PPP is elected and that it will lead to another coup which could end up being a very bloody affair this time round?

That's a very round about way of displacing blame if my interpretation is correct. The military cant accept the democratic vote, so they take over the country killing anyone who gets in their way. And its the voters fault for exercising their democratic right to vote for who they choose to instead of of being submissive to the wishes of a military dictatorship. You call that "bloodlust" on the part of the voters?

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First thing - the junta has held up its word and let people decide on their government. Perhaps they expected a different outcome, lots of people did.

Whether people made a wise choice or not is a different matter.

From now on they've got no one else to blame but themselves.

Vote buying is not Thailand's biggest problem. The fact that people voted for a political puppet of a man who never let them think for themselves and taught them to rely on the daddy government instead is a far bigger issue. Democracy was supposed to let people take charge of their destiny but they did exactly the opposite.

Having the right to say something is just the first step, the end result is saying the right thing, bubbling nonsense is not going to do the coutnry any good.

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This is a long way from over and exit polls are often wrong by a mile even in 1st world countries. They rely heavily on people telling the truth. I rest my case.lol

I still reckon that Abhisit will be the next prime minister but we might not know the outcome for a long time if the vote is very close. Alliances have to be formed to get a majority and then there will be the dissqualifications leading to bi-elections in the coming weeks and so far near on 1000 complaints have to be investigated by the EC. This is not over by a long way unless PPP end up with a majority tonight and maybe not even then. If they do then will the Junta step aside??? The Junta just passed a new law last week allowing them huge powers that might be used if PPP get that majority. Fascinating times ahead IMHO.

I think Junta will step aside either having done a deal with the Thaskinistas or leaving a five party coalition not including PPP. Depends on the final numbers and the oficial result after red card time too. I think if more than 24 MPs are red carded the paliament will be inquorate too.

While it is impossible to say to what extent the EC will follow up on the numerous complaints of irregularities, some think they will let things go if the PPP wins an outright majority, but will follow up if the PPP needs to join with another party to gain power. Of course, there is a lot of talk and no one really knows for sure.

Currently it looks like PPP will need coalition partners. In some ways I just wish theyd win outright. The amazing thing is the Dems are polling neck and neck in the popular vote with PPP but constituency based systems dont value evry persons vote equally so they will come up well short

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My gut reaction to this vote (if it turns out as predicted) is that the people of Thailand have expressed a desire for blood lust.

Would you like to explain that comment further?

"Bloodlust"? How on earth did you come to that conclusion?

I said gut feeling, Not conclusion.

To analyze why I feel this way. The Thai people were offered a more peaceful UNITED path out of this morass. A weak democratic PM with a coalition government. Instead they voted for the Thaksin surrogate, a party they know the current military government can't allow to take total power (so if they won't can this still be settled without blood? Not clear, is it?), and also a party with a solid history of mass extra-judicial murders.

Thus my feeling that the people of Thailand have voted for a blood letting.

Correct me if I have got it wrong, but the way I interpret what you are saying is; -- the people know the military will not accept the democratic vote if the PPP is elected and that it will lead to another coup which could end up being a very bloody affair this time round?

That's a very round about way of displacing blame if my interpretation is correct. The military cant accept the democratic vote, so they take over the country killing anyone who gets in their way. And its the voters fault for exercising their democratic right to vote for who they choose to instead of of being submissive to the wishes of a military dictatorship. You call that "bloodlust" on the part of the voters?

I dont think there will be another coup unless there is mass bloodshed first which is unlikely.

By the way it looks like we just spent two years getting to where we would have been if Thaksin had just resigned over the various accusations and court cases had been brought way back then. A Thaksin supporting goverment without T at the helm but pulling the strings behind the scenes and facing investigation and indictments by bodies over charges the government of the day would rather see disppear. It is amazing that a whole country has been put on hold for two years while a relatively few powerful people conducted their vendettas.

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First thing - the junta has held up its word and let people decide on their government. Perhaps they expected a different outcome, lots of people did.

Whether people made a wise choice or not is a different matter.

From now on they've got no one else to blame but themselves.

Vote buying is not Thailand's biggest problem. The fact that people voted for a political puppet of a man who never let them think for themselves and taught them to rely on the daddy government instead is a far bigger issue. Democracy was supposed to let people take charge of their destiny but they did exactly the opposite.

Having the right to say something is just the first step, the end result is saying the right thing, bubbling nonsense is not going to do the coutnry any good.

Get over it Plus. Regardless of who is elected, the campaigning is over for now. ;-)

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looks like the PPP/Thaksin forces have fooled poor NE Issans again with promises of handouts etc. ...so sad for Thailand...

Hardly 'fooled' they got thier handouts !!

I guess this is to be expected when you have a near feudal mentality of pooyai rule etc.. The serfs and 'little people' see thier vote and input as not being valuable and hence sell it cheaply..

Plus whatever you say, many in the NE actually wanted to vote for him.. Thats their choice..

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So what happens if PPP wins? - BBC -

Any move by the PPP to bring Mr Thaksin back would put the party on a collision course with the military.

But after nearly 18 months of instability, there appears to be little public appetite for another coup.

The military has also repeatedly denied it would take action if the PPP won, with army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda describing the suggestion as "the most stupid idea".

What is more likely, say analysts, is that post-election challenges and complaints - upon which the election commission would rule - could delay or prevent the formation of a PPP-led government.

I disagree. Watch out for a decisive and convincing military intervention in the next few days.

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My gut reaction to this vote (if it turns out as predicted) is that the people of Thailand have expressed a desire for blood lust.

Would you like to explain that comment further?

"Bloodlust"? How on earth did you come to that conclusion?

I said gut feeling, Not conclusion.

To analyze why I feel this way. The Thai people were offered a more peaceful UNITED path out of this morass. A weak democratic PM with a coalition government. Instead they voted for the Thaksin surrogate, a party they know the current military government can't allow to take total power (so if they won't can this still be settled without blood? Not clear, is it?), and also a party with a solid history of mass extra-judicial murders.

Thus my feeling that the people of Thailand have voted for a blood letting.

Correct me if I have got it wrong, but the way I interpret what you are saying is; -- the people know the military will not accept the democratic vote if the PPP is elected and that it will lead to another coup which could end up being a very bloody affair this time round?

That's a very round about way of displacing blame if my interpretation is correct. The military cant accept the democratic vote, so they take over the country killing anyone who gets in their way. And its the voters fault for exercising their democratic right to vote for who they choose to instead of of being submissive to the wishes of a military dictatorship. You call that "bloodlust" on the part of the voters?

I dont think there will be another coup unless there is mass bloodshed first which is unlikely.

By the way it looks like we just spent two years getting to where we would have been if Thaksin had just resigned over the various accusations and court cases had been brought way back then. A Thaksin supporting goverment without T at the helm but pulling the strings behind the scenes and facing investigation and indictments by bodies over charges the government of the day would rather see disppear. It is amazing that a whole country has been put on hold for two years while a relatively few powerful people conducted their vendettas.

Yea, but after the honeymoon period, coalitions tend to have irreconcilable differences, and in the ensuing s*it fight for power the government grinds to a halt and leaves an opening for the military to move in and restore peace and harmony in the land. Plus, who knows what might be going on behind the scenes to offer incentives for a junior coalition partner to wreck the marriage? The general consensus from the so called experts seems to be that any coalition will be short lived.

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they are fooled because its just a tiny shortterm buyout...

whatever you say, the vote would have capriciously shifted to whatever party offered short-term populist policies (like a free B1 million per village)...is that really a free-choice "wanted to vote for him"?

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Well, look at the bright side, should be time for the baht to weaken ...

Yes, a weakeded Baht would be a good thing, esspecially as I am running out of beer money and have to drink until the Democrats win the next election

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On current result projections a Democrat led coalition could muster 244 seats - a majority of 8

Possible, but I would expect Matchima (9 seats) to throw in its lot with PPP. They're an old TRT faction.

But Prachai is a total loose canon and enemy of Thaksin. He donated to the PAD

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they are fooled because its just a tiny shortterm buyout...

whatever you say, the vote would have capriciously shifted to whatever party offered short-term populist policies (like a free B1 million per village)...is that really a free-choice "wanted to vote for him"?

The people I've talked to in the last few days have all declared themselves for Samak- not out of love for him or his policies- but out of contempt for the Democrats. Perhaps the Democrats were not sufficiently vocal in distancing themselves from the coup. The Dems didn't like the constitution- but said so very politely. The constitution went ahead. They disagreed with the Internal Security Act- and were again, most polite and accomodating. The Act went ahead. They didn't approve of the NLA's flurry of bill passing- and said essentially- that it's not nice of the NLA to be passing bills at this time. Didn't deter the NLA.

Thais- like most people- like the people they elect to lead them- to do so with confidence and decisiveness. If the Dems could not express themselves more forcefully against the things which they claimed to oppose (aside from Thaksin and all things connected to Thaksin) perhaps in the minds of many, they lacked the substance to lead.

And yet were trusted to be an effective opposition party- playing, in effect, the role of an investigative media----, a trust which I might add, based on their dogged uncovering of possible TRT crookedness up to the time of the PAD rallies at least, - is fully deserved.

Edited by blaze
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With all due respect I think this is looking alright, the economy was much better under Thaksin. The Thai people have made their choices and we should respect that.
When will people understand that in active trading economies, the reality is that governments ride the wave, be it positive or negative. If any politician was honest, then so called 'financial statements' would be on that basis, not the fantasy of we managed the economy better than the last lot.

Regards

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With all due respect I think this is looking alright, the economy was much better under Thaksin. The Thai people have made their choices and we should respect that.

The Thai people have indeed made their choice -unfortunately up to 16 million under the influence of cash hand-outs. Therefore the result -as usual- is undemocratic

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With all due respect I think this is looking alright, the economy was much better under Thaksin. The Thai people have made their choices and we should respect that.

thats simply WRONG. Economical decisions need a while till they get in effect. So the beginning of Toxin was good due to the former gouverment and then it only went down. Every year worse. Just for his cronies it went well but all the small companies slowed down.

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My gut reaction to this vote (if it turns out as predicted) is that the people of Thailand have expressed a desire for blood lust.

Would you like to explain that comment further?

"Bloodlust"? How on earth did you come to that conclusion?

I said gut feeling, Not conclusion.

To analyze why I feel this way. The Thai people were offered a more peaceful UNITED path out of this morass. A weak democratic PM with a coalition government. Instead they voted for the Thaksin surrogate, a party they know the current military government can't allow to take total power (so if they won't can this still be settled without blood? Not clear, is it?), and also a party with a solid history of mass extra-judicial murders.

Thus my feeling that the people of Thailand have voted for a blood letting.

Correct me if I have got it wrong, but the way I interpret what you are saying is; -- the people know the military will not accept the democratic vote if the PPP is elected and that it will lead to another coup which could end up being a very bloody affair this time round?

That's a very round about way of displacing blame if my interpretation is correct. The military cant accept the democratic vote, so they take over the country killing anyone who gets in their way. And its the voters fault for exercising their democratic right to vote for who they choose to instead of of being submissive to the wishes of a military dictatorship. You call that "bloodlust" on the part of the voters?

I dont think there will be another coup unless there is mass bloodshed first which is unlikely.

By the way it looks like we just spent two years getting to where we would have been if Thaksin had just resigned over the various accusations and court cases had been brought way back then. A Thaksin supporting goverment without T at the helm but pulling the strings behind the scenes and facing investigation and indictments by bodies over charges the government of the day would rather see disppear. It is amazing that a whole country has been put on hold for two years while a relatively few powerful people conducted their vendettas.

Yea, but after the honeymoon period, coalitions tend to have irreconcilable differences, and in the ensuing s*it fight for power the government grinds to a halt and leaves an opening for the military to move in and restore peace and harmony in the land. Plus, who knows what might be going on behind the scenes to offer incentives for a junior coalition partner to wreck the marriage? The general consensus from the so called experts seems to be that any coalition will be short lived.

It also looks likely that PPP will need at least one coalition partner depending on who they favour or who will work with them. I would guess a short term government too and possibly formation of a bunch of new parties for the center yet again. Im not sure the military is united enough to launch another coup.

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So what happens if PPP wins? - BBC -

Any move by the PPP to bring Mr Thaksin back would put the party on a collision course with the military.

But after nearly 18 months of instability, there appears to be little public appetite for another coup.

The military has also repeatedly denied it would take action if the PPP won, with army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda describing the suggestion as "the most stupid idea".

What is more likely, say analysts, is that post-election challenges and complaints - upon which the election commission would rule - could delay or prevent the formation of a PPP-led government.

I disagree. Watch out for a decisive and convincing military intervention in the next few days.

I disagree.

The military got initial support from the people because they were sick and tired of the stalemate in the courts that locked up the government. Jumping in now right after an election would be unpopular and not leave any excuse other than a power grab. Better to leave the junta appointed judiciary to tie up political representatives in endless court cases and hamstring the government until it is no longer workable. Then the military can come in and break the deadlock and at the same time be seen as the saviour of the nation. I would give the next government 12 months if it ends up being a PPP coalition.

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With all due respect I think this is looking alright, the economy was much better under Thaksin. The Thai people have made their choices and we should respect that.

The Thai people have indeed made their choice -unfortunately up to 16 million under the influence of cash hand-outs. Therefore the result -as usual- is undemocratic

fully agree! They would vote for me if I can give them more money, thats not democracy.

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