Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[soundman]

Well it looks like the exit polls were missleading & that whichever party can form a coalition will be the winner.

Current countings show PPP have 227 seats - not enough for an outright majority.

[Mosha]

Been here too long, am not communicating in my mother tongue accurately..pardon me..what form might the problems take, manifest themselves, are we talking violence

I think that can be taken as read. Like I have also said a good time to be in the sticks.

[mel2surf]

would one kind soul please explain to an uneducated farang the meaning of "Proportionate MPs"?

Yea, it came out "proptionate" <deleted>?

[jumnien]

The PPP was the only party to significantly oppose the coup. Of course they won. If a fairly unattractive candidate like Samak ran in Myanmar against the military coup and its puppet parties it would be supported by the people as well. Why are farangs so opposed to folks who don't like right-wing military governments?

[Heng]

Hopefully this time the PPP will be a little smarter and establish an 'SS-like' corps to protect the government from future coups. I've been in contact with more than a few Thai American friends (mostly Air Force and Army brats) through all of this who are just itchin' to start a Blackwater type operation over here. We'd call it Hengwater.

As a side note, I'm thinking black uniforms with trim to match the Thai color for each day of the week (yellow, pink, green, orange, etc.). My cousin has a sweat shop that can make the uniforms. Will go ahead and Paypal my gratuity in advance.

cc: [email protected]

[soundman]

I get the feeling Taksin is peeing his pants right now and is getting ready to part with a substancial amount of cash to woo a party into a PPP coalition.

[bulmercke]

Thaksin Party Leads Thai Election, Exit Polls Say (Update3)

By Rattaphol Onsanit

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's People Power Party, which campaigned for the return of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, won the most seats in the nation's first election since the 2006 military coup, according to exit polls.

``This is a victory for people and democracy,'' Surapong Suebwonglee, People Power spokesman, told state-owned TITV. ``We will set up a coalition government, but it's too early to say who we will partner with. We need one more party.'' PPP has scheduled an 8 p.m. press conference at its Bangkok headquarters to comment on the election.

A coalition with one of the other 29 parties running in the election will likely be required for a majority in parliament. Thaksin's now-banned Thai Rak Thai Party won a record 75 percent of the seats in the 2005 election. The junta said it ousted him due to alleged corruption and disrespect for the monarchy.

``This heightens uncertainty as people who are anti-Thaksin will get upset,'' Malcolm Cook, program director for Asia and the Pacific at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said. ``It's a question of whether this is acceptable for the people who led the coup.''

Based on 18 percent of votes counted at 5 p.m., the PPP would end up with 192 seats, and the Democrat Party 120 of the 400 of the directly elected seats in the House of Representatives seats, according to predictions by Channel 7 television. An exit poll released after voting closed at 3 p.m. suggested PPP had won 255 seats, which would give it an outright majority.

``I would rather not comment until we know the official results,'' Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, 43, said in an earlier interview with Channel 9. ``If the results actually turn out to be the same, I won't have much to say anyway.''

Slowest Growth

Thailand's economy, which grew the slowest of six Southeast Asian nations in the third quarter, has suffered from the coup, missteps by the military-backed government and uncertainty as to when democracy would be restored. During Thaksin's 5 1/2 years as prime minister, economic growth peaked at the fastest pace in a decade.

A government proposal to limit foreign control of businesses in Thailand was withdrawn in August amid criticism it would deter investors. In December 2006, currency controls which triggered the stock market's steepest slide in 16 years were withdrawn by the central bank a day after they were imposed.

Thai Rak Thai

Thai Rak Thai won two elections under Thaksin's leadership. It took a record 377 of 500 seats in the second, in February 2005. The PPP, which includes among its membership 250 former TRT executives, has accused the junta of using its power unfairly to prevent PPP, led by Samak Sundaravej, 72, from winning enough seats to control the House of Representatives.

Officials imposed new rules, unlike in previous campaigns. Canvassing by non-candidates was restricted, and parades were banned. Junta officials say the regulations apply to all parties More than 30 parties fielded candidates in today's election.

New York-based Human Rights Watch, in a Dec. 21 report, said the junta had been ``maneuvering to influence voting results and to prevent Thaksin's allies from returning to government.''

Thais, in an Aug. 19 referendum, approved an army-backed constitution that limits the prime minister to serving two terms.

About 46 million of the nation's 65 million people were eligible to vote for 480 House of Representative members. Of those, 400 are directly elected, while 80 so-called party-list candidates are chosen by proportional voting from a national list picked by each party.

Abhisit's Pitch

Abhisit, born in England to medical-professor parents, was educated at Eton as well as the University of Oxford and entered politics in 1992. When campaigning, he often reminded voters that his party helped restore stability in Thailand after troops opened fire on pro-democracy demonstrators in 1992, which led to the fall of a military-backed government.

Abhisit has campaigned on a platform calling for free education, cooking-fuel subsidies and infrastructure development in rural Thailand.

Samak, comparing his experience to that of his rival, calls Abhisit an ``unripe mango.'' The PPP leader served as deputy prime minister three times between 1992 and 1997.

In 1976, Samak was interior minister when troops opened fire on student protesters, killing at least 46, and was also deputy prime minister during the killing of the demonstrators in 1992.

By tying himself to the Thaksin era, he seeks to benefit from voter memories of strong economic growth.

``Thaksin told me to steer the ship for him,'' Samak told 5,000 people Dec. 12 at a rally in Bangkok.

He vows to bring the former prime minister home. Thaksin, 58, lives in exile in London and owns the Manchester City soccer team.

``He will have to come back to face charges in the court,'' said Samak at a rally in Bangkok Dec. 12. ``He must clear his charges first before coming back to politics maybe in the far future.''

[kuma]

Been here too long, am not communicating in my mother tongue accurately..pardon me..what form might the problems take, manifest themselves, are we talking violence??

What might form might the problems take...??

Looking at http://203.150.244.10/reports/eng/index.php?showall=1& the voting is slightly against PPP but the seats are in their favour. SWMBO has just said if Thaksin's friends win there will be big problems.

sorry but can someone tell me who/what is SWMBO?

[Jingthing]

The PPP was the only party to significantly oppose the coup. Of course they won. If a fairly unattractive candidate like Samak ran in Myanmar against the military coup and its puppet parties it would be supported by the people as well. Why are farangs so opposed to folks who don't like right-wing military governments?

Could be that Samak is a radical right winger and that there was a much cleaner moderate choice in Abhisit.

Your question is a typical loaded question, like When did you stop beating your wife?

Edited December 23, 2007 by Jingthing

[george]

Update:

PPP leader: Constitution will be amended, amnesty for Thaksin

BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s People Power Party (PPP) leader Samak Sundaravej vowed on Sunday to amend the current Constitution and possibly pave the way for ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return to politics, if he assumed the premiership after his party won the December 23 general election.

Mr. Samak made the comments in his first phone interview with CNN after learning exit polls were indicating his party had won the post-coup election.

A Dusit poll for Bangkok's Suan Dusit Rajabhat University forecast the PPP had won a majority with 256 seats, compared to 162 for rival the Democrat Party. An Abac poll for Assumption University showed PPP had won 202 seats, with the Democrats taking 146 seats.

The PPP was scheduled to hold a press conference at its headquarters at 8 PM.

Mr. Thaksin was overthrown by a bloodless coup on September 16, 2006. His Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party was disbanded in May by Constitution Tribunal order, with all 111 executives including then party leader Thaksin being banned from politics for five years.

Mr. Samak, who earlier admitted being a proxy of Thaksin, added amnesty for the 111 TRT executives would also be a priority if he assumed the premiership.

Meanwhile, PPP secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee said Mr. Thaksin, who has been living in England for most of his self imposed exile of the past 15 months, could return home after a newly elected government was formed so as to fight in court against his corruption charges.

Mr. Thaksin would not enjoy any special privileges because every court procedure must be carried out under legal provision, Mr. Surapong said.

The PPP secretary-general added he was not worried about some party members being possibly disqualified from the election, as the Election Commission was investigating some complaints charging the PPP was involved in electoral fraud.

“The claim was an obsolete trick exhausted by some outdated politicians. I am sure that the party’s candidates adhered to the EC’s regulations,” said Surapong.

--TNA 2007-12-23

[Jingthing]

SWMBO

She

Who

Must

Be

Obeyed

[Guest mascot]

I would like to know what makes you all experts in somebody elses country, of course your country elections always elected the one you wanted. This is a democratic process and by current world standards has been run relatively cleanly. The thai people have the right to elect who they wish and for us to respect it or go somewhere else. I did not like the elecyion result in Australia but that's life.

[Mosha]

sorry but can someone tell me who/what is SWMBO?

She Who Must Be Obeyed. Also known as the wife. When the food tastes funny you know you are in trouble.

[Jingthing]

I would like to know what makes you all experts in somebody elses country, of course your country elections always elected the one you wanted. This is a democratic process and by current world standards has been run relatively cleanly. The thai people have the right to elect who they wish and for us to respect it or go somewhere else. I did not like the elecyion result in Australia but that's life.

The Love it Or Leave it faction has spoken.

[meemiathai]

One word to describe a PPP victory.

SHIT!!!!

Agreed. Bars are going to continue to close early.

[Heng]

Breakin' out the Weller and Kodiak over here.

[Plus]

If proportionate vote results are used to judge what people think about national issues (including anticoup vote), then Democrats alone got more votes so far, and that says a lot.

[Jingthing]

If proportionate vote results are used to judge what people think about national issues (including anticoup vote), then Democrats alone got more votes so far, and that says a lot.

Yep, it says alot about how messy this is all going to be.

[Mosha]

More votes, less seats. Yep trouble ahead.

Edited December 23, 2007 by Mosha

[meemiathai]

Its sad to see that the majority of Farangs here do not respect the Thai peoples right to democratically elect a government of their choice.

Strange you seem to think that the majority of farangs give a shit about thailand's people. Most important thing is thailand remains a disneyland for them. That means people remain poor.

[jumnien]

Samak didn't bow down before the Generals; a majority of Thais admired that. If Abhisit had any balls he'd have been a shoe-in.

[kuma]

555 oh ok, an imaginary type being, now i understand thx

SWMBO

She

Who

Must

Be

Obeyed

[jackspratt]

I did not like the elecyion result in Australia but that's life.

Fortunately 52.5% of Australians disagreed with you. That's life!

[Naam]

SWMBO

She

Who

Must

Be

Obeyed

keep my wife out of politics!

[Plus]

At this moment Democrats even got more votes in Constituencies, but less seats.

My guess is that winning margin for PPP is slim in Isan, for example, but those votes don't matter if they still lost.

Is it possible that we'll end up like the US in 2000? More people voted for Gore but he couldn't get enough electoral college votes.

It's not formatted as a proper table should be, sorry

Rank Political Parties Constituency MPs Proportionate MPs

Votes Seats % Votes Seats %

1 People Power Party 12,596,989 195 48.75 7,669,663 34 42.50

2 Democrat Party 11,364,970 125 31.25 8,436,037 34 42.50

Edited December 23, 2007 by Plus

[blaze]

The PPP was the only party to significantly oppose the coup. Of course they won. If a fairly unattractive candidate like Samak ran in Myanmar against the military coup and its puppet parties it would be supported by the people as well. Why are farangs so opposed to folks who don't like right-wing military governments?

I can tell you why I for one oppose all them commies- if they get their way- I'll have to pay serious money for my motor bike taxi- my food- I won't be getting any more deference from the maids and the security 'boys'. When labor costs go up- I'll have to pay serious rent to live in one of the worlds best cities- when taxes go up to support all those freeloaders in the NE guess whose rent's gonna skyrocket.

Naw -try to find another lovely place like this where the poor know their place- and are content with it. just try.

My only regret is that much of the world sees my little corner of paradise as profoundly exploitative. If we could just get a government that will talk the talk- but well- be reasonable eh?

[bulmercke]

The PPP was the only party to significantly oppose the coup. Of course they won. If a fairly unattractive candidate like Samak ran in Myanmar against the military coup and its puppet parties it would be supported by the people as well. Why are farangs so opposed to folks who don't like right-wing military governments?

Could be that Samak is a radical right winger and that there was a much cleaner moderate choice in Abhisit.

Your question is a typical loaded question, like When did you stop beating your wife?

Right wing governments are traditionally - and by nature - opposed to their citizens enjoying civil liberties and freedom of expression which in a fair world should be the absolute right of any individual.

Edited December 23, 2007 by bulmercke

[mitrapaap]

At this moment Democrats even got more votes in Constituencies, but less seats.

My guess is that winning margin for PPP is slim in Isan, for example, but those votes don't matter if they still lost.

Is it possible that we'll end up like the US in 2000? More people voted for Gore but he couldn't get enough electoral college votes.

It's not formatted as a proper table should be, sorry

Rank Political Parties Constituency MPs Proportionate MPs

Votes Seats % Votes Seats %

1 People Power Party 12,596,989 195 48.75 7,669,663 34 42.50

2 Democrat Party 11,364,970 125 31.25 8,436,037 34 42.50

Could it be or am I dreaming when I imagine the following possibility:

The democrats form a coalition with all the other parties (except PPP of course) and then the country is somehow de-Toxinated?

[blaze]

Samak didn't bow down before the Generals; a majority of Thais admired that. If Abhisit had any balls he'd have been a shoe-in.

I often wonder- what would the results be had immediately after the coup, the Dems, led by Abhisit, marched on the parliament- and loudly proclaimed- what we had before wasn't much of a democracy- but this will not stand!

I suspect we'd be looking at a Dem sweep.

[Mosha]

Given that a coalition is likely. Anyone have an inkling how the parties are expected to line up?