Maizefarmer Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 (edited) Around 10 years back the Baht was at something like Baht 25 / $ 1!!! - and the Thai suthorities pannicked. Overnight we saw the Baht devalued, and for a period of time it contiued to plummet with something like the high 60's being reached, at which point it turned and over the last 10 years it has slowly got stronger and stronger. Then the whole of Asia was in a financial doledrum, and althought the reasons now are somewhat different for the Bahts relative strength aginst the $, it none-the-less is having a big effect on exports. What are the chances that we will see another devaluation sometime during this year? Edited March 20, 2008 by Maizefarmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ijustwannateach Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Hope it's low; I don't think exports are the end-all, be-all of the economy here- plus the baht relative to other, stronger currencies (like pound and euro) hasn't changed all that much (and US influence, like the dollar, is dropping). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clausewitz Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I know you know that the baht was pegged against the dollar until 1997, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prakanong Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I doubt very much you will se a devaluing like that this year. 97 was a whole different ball game with a perfect storm across many Asian economies gathering - the only place looking that shakey currently is the USA and then a number of factors would need to feed off each other all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdinasia Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Thw baht was pegged against the dollar until 1997 --- then it was floated ... it was never 'devalued'. When it floated it reached 83:1 briefly then quickly found its real value around the 40's mark. Today's issues are about the dollar being worth less and the baht being one of the strongest currencies around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiksilva Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Yup its a completely different scenario today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Likely because lets face it the thai economy isn't doing so well. See a precipitous free fall at some stage, however when is anyone guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsetBkk Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Likely because lets face it the thai economy isn't doing so well. See a precipitous free fall at some stage, however when is anyone guess. It would be nice if it happens before December - the next 1,000,000 baht transfer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teej Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Anything is possible....Except a Baht devaluation. Not going to happen. Different circumstance completely. Brit I've give you the keys to my Tractor Italiano if the Baht is devalued. Granted you'll have to move to HK to use it.... Not going to happen. If anything as long as the dollar weakens, expect a stronger baht. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 Likely because lets face it the thai economy isn't doing so well. See a precipitous free fall at some stage, however when is anyone guess. the thai economy is not exactly doing well since a couple of years. did the Baht weaken or strengthen vs. most major currencies? we had rate cuts, not one but several. what happened? Baht did not weaken but got stronger. USD stronger by an average of 4% vs. major currencies. did the Baht weaken 4% vs. the Dollar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 No - but I am thinking another collapse is coming. Far diff than rate cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longway Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 No - but I am thinking another collapse is coming. Far diff than rate cuts. you have been saying that for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 No - but I am thinking another collapse is coming. Far diff than rate cuts. you have been saying that for years now. And one of these days I will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsetBkk Posted March 21, 2008 Share Posted March 21, 2008 No - but I am thinking another collapse is coming. Far diff than rate cuts. you have been saying that for years now. And one of these days I will be right. I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaihome Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 It is widely believed that the BOT is trying very hard to keep the baht above 30. Of course they tried very hard to keep it above 40, then 38, then 35, etc. In today’s world, a small central bank like BOT does not have much influence on the market, the reserves are just not there nor should they be squandered trying influence the market. I am eagerly awaiting this cycle to top out and start the other way, but I'm afraid it could be several years. TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted March 23, 2008 Share Posted March 23, 2008 It is widely believed that the BOT is trying very hard to keep the baht above 30. Of course they tried very hard to keep it above 40, then 38, then 35, etc. In today’s world, a small central bank like BOT does not have much influence on the market, the reserves are just not there nor should they be squandered trying influence the market.I am eagerly awaiting this cycle to top out and start the other way, but I'm afraid it could be several years. TH Baht per US dollar - 33.599 (2007), 37.882 (2006), 40.22 (2005), 40.222 (2004), 41.485 (2003) source: CIA LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now