Samak Bows Out

[sriracha john]

The shadow of a man is seen on the painting of ousted Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej during a demonstration at government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008. Thailand's ruling party considered new candidates Saturday to nominate as the country's next prime minister after ousted leader Samak Sundaravej bowed to opposition within the ruling coalition and said he would not run again.

Associated Press

[scyriacus]

And, can someone please explain to me the reasons that Abbisit would ask to be elected as PM?...I thought he was a "Democrat" (used loosely) How on earth can an "opposition" candidate expect to be elected as PM, when the PPP are in power...this government/country is becoming a laughing stock!

I think they're looking at the possibility of forming a "special coalition" government with participation from opposition MPs in the Cabinet.

Weird, I heard that Baharn was in talk with "higher authority" to form a new government with the "democrats" and that the deal was he will bring with him half of the current coalition members (??). But so far I thought it was after fresh election following the fall of the current government. But as someone said before "Ooops, it was not supposed to happend this way" ???

Well Banharn....there is a reason they call him Banharn the Eel.

If he speaks 1 word three lies come out of his mouth.

i guess this guy who can speak 3 lies with 1 word is an artist and maybe the best choice of the ppp (trt, tft)

[LaoPo]

The shadow of a man is seen on the painting of ousted Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej during a demonstration at government house in Bangkok, Thailand, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008. Thailand's ruling party considered new candidates Saturday to nominate as the country's next prime minister after ousted leader Samak Sundaravej bowed to opposition within the ruling coalition and said he would not run again.

Associated Press

The one who painted that painting is very good !

It could have been a Lucien Freud painting; in May 2008 a Freud painting* was sold for $ 33,6 Million at Christie's New York:

* Benefits Supervisor Sleeping

I can't post a picture here; against the rules...

but a link maybe: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04...n=entertainment

LaoPo

Edited September 13, 2008 by LaoPo

[scyriacus]

with roughly the same popular vote as PPP (although less seats) and being that PPP was always a minority in the house needing to form a coalition, Dems have equal right to try to form a govt if the PPP cannot.

dems right, but do they have the money?

[scyriacus]

with roughly the same popular vote as PPP (although less seats) and being that PPP was always a minority in the house needing to form a coalition, Dems have equal right to try to form a govt if the PPP cannot.

dems right, but do they have the money?

reason for edit: good netiquette! bold emphasis by scyriacus and not by steveromagnino. everything clear?

[scyriacus]

When you grew up under a tribal system (Issan) - the concept of one man one vote is rather nebulous. Maybe these folks aren't ready for representative Democracy. Ever consider that?

Maybe "President for life" would be better. Think Hosni Mubarak, Suharto, Ferdinand Marcos, Hafez al Assad.

You call growing up in Issan, Tribal ???...and the one-man-one-vote nebulous/vague/cloudy/misty/hazy ... I think that every single poor farmer in Issan knows EXACTLY what one-man-one-vote means; ...You have a very strange way for saying that the rural poor are not fit to vote LaoPo

i don't believe in any of the mentioned 'presidents'. but i do believe that the one-man-one-vote is rather nebulous. the vagueness simply lies in the fact, that the one poor man never knows in advance, if his one vote is worth 300 or 500 baht. they mostly ask: ประชาธิปไตย อะไร (democracy what?) กี่บาท (how much?) and it is not their fault. it's the fault of corrupt vote buyers. (and perhaps too much lao) disclaimer: all quotes are my selection only and all (or most) emphasis' done by me! no misunderstandings please, just good netiquette.

[ETC]

When you grew up under a tribal system (Issan) - the concept of one man one vote is rather nebulous. Maybe these folks aren't ready for representative Democracy. Ever consider that?

Maybe "President for life" would be better. Think Hosni Mubarak, Suharto, Ferdinand Marcos, Hafez al Assad.

You call growing up in Issan, Tribal ???...and the one-man-one-vote nebulous/vague/cloudy/misty/hazy ... I think that every single poor farmer in Issan knows EXACTLY what one-man-one-vote means; ...You have a very strange way for saying that the rural poor are not fit to vote LaoPo

i don't believe in any of the mentioned 'presidents'. but i do believe that the one-man-one-vote is rather nebulous. the vagueness simply lies in the fact, that the one poor man never knows in advance, if his one vote is worth 300 or 500 baht. they mostly ask: ประชาธิปไตย อะไร (democracy what?) กี่บาท (how much?) and it is not their fault. it's the fault of corrupt vote buyers. (and perhaps too much lao) disclaimer: all quotes are my selection only and all (or most) emphasis' done by me! no misunderstandings please, just good netiquette.

Just maybe the Isaan folks are far more intelligent then many portray them on this and other forums. Just maybe they figure "a bird in the hand is better then two in the bush". 300 or 500 baht today, for a family that is hurting, would be hard to refuse if you cared about your family. Neither formal education or great personal wealth mandate personal integrity, honesty, love of family, hard working and a genuine caring for your neighbors. All those things I find in the Isaan people but am hard pressed to find them in the political arena. So who is really intelligent? Just maybe they choose to use their 1-vote to help their family today. Isn't true democracy the right to choose? Who are we to tell them what to do with their 1-vote.

[LaoPo]

Apart from the Issan provinces, there are still 76-19 = 57 Provinces left...do those "provincials" have a right to vote ?

"Isan's total population as of 2000 was 20,825,000."***

*** from Wikipedia

LaoPo

Edited September 13, 2008 by LaoPo

[sriracha john]

Somchai the favourite

Acting PM Somchai Wongsawat has an advantage over two other rivals in the PPP in the race to become the next PM. The contest began after Samak decided on Friday to retire from politics. Somchai, Sompong Amornwiwat, and Surapong Suebwonglee were picked by key Party members yesterday to be potential candidates in the race. Only one will be officially endorsed by PPP members at a meeting tomorrow. The name will be forwarded to the other five coalition parties for backing on Tuesday, one day before lawmakers reconvene in the House to vote for a new government leader. Somchai and Sompong are the PPP's Deputy Leaders. Surapong is Secretary-General. One of them will replace Samak as PM after he was rejected by the coalition parties and dissident PPP members. Samak's decision to step down as the PPP Leader will not be official until it is approved by the party. A PPP source said Somchai was favoured by former PM Thaksin, who still has influence in key issues. Somchai is a brother-in-law of Thaksin. But the five parties in the government coalition appeared to support Sompong because they did not want to see a new PM too close to Thaksin, the source said. Having Somchai as the new PM could make the government more vulnerable to attacks by the PAD because he was even closer to Thaksin than Samak, another source said. The group under Newin, believed to represent about 70 MPs, has now picked Surapong as its new favourite.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130637

[jbowman1993]

Somchai the favourite

Acting PM Somchai Wongsawat has an advantage over two other rivals in the PPP in the race to become the next PM. The contest began after Samak decided on Friday to retire from politics. Somchai, Sompong Amornwiwat, and Surapong Suebwonglee were picked by key Party members yesterday to be potential candidates in the race. Only one will be officially endorsed by PPP members at a meeting tomorrow. The name will be forwarded to the other five coalition parties for backing on Tuesday, one day before lawmakers reconvene in the House to vote for a new government leader. Somchai and Sompong are the PPP's Deputy Leaders. Surapong is Secretary-General. One of them will replace Samak as PM after he was rejected by the coalition parties and dissident PPP members. Samak's decision to step down as the PPP Leader will not be official until it is approved by the party. A PPP source said Somchai was favoured by former PM Thaksin, who still has influence in key issues. Somchai is a brother-in-law of Thaksin. But the five parties in the government coalition appeared to support Sompong because they did not want to see a new PM too close to Thaksin, the source said. Having Somchai as the new PM could make the government more vulnerable to attacks by the PAD because he was even closer to Thaksin than Samak, another source said. The group under Newin, believed to represent about 70 MPs, has now picked Surapong as its new favourite.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130637

And here comes the newest idiot!!!

[sriracha john]

Well, it shouldn't be long now... We've been assured the State of Emergency would end in "a few days"... 11 days ago.

And here comes the newest idiot!!!

The new definition of "a few days" from him is now 12.

Emergency ends

The government will lift the state of emergency in Bangkok on Sunday after just 12 days in effect. The decision was made at a Saturday night meeting between acting PM Somchai Wongsawat and Army Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda. They agreed the state of emergency was merely damaging the country, and the political situation was under control.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130636

[Artisi]

" and the political situation was under control"

Is this a joke?

[LaoPo]

Excerpt:

The PAD will continue its demonstration at Government House until the government falls.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130637

LaoPo

[Crushdepth]

I don't agree with this excluding some people from voting for whatever reason. If you exclude people from a political process they will find other ways to 'participate' (eg. armed rebellion).

" and the political situation was under control"

Is this a joke?

They just wanted to reassure backpackers there would be no disruption to the supply of banana pancakes and beer Chang in the mornings :-)

Edited September 14, 2008 by Crushdepth

[Sandstone Art]

Somchai the favourite

Acting PM Somchai Wongsawat has an advantage over two other rivals in the PPP in the race to become the next PM. The contest began after Samak decided on Friday to retire from politics. Somchai, Sompong Amornwiwat, and Surapong Suebwonglee were picked by key Party members yesterday to be potential candidates in the race. Only one will be officially endorsed by PPP members at a meeting tomorrow. The name will be forwarded to the other five coalition parties for backing on Tuesday, one day before lawmakers reconvene in the House to vote for a new government leader. Somchai and Sompong are the PPP's Deputy Leaders. Surapong is Secretary-General. One of them will replace Samak as PM after he was rejected by the coalition parties and dissident PPP members. Samak's decision to step down as the PPP Leader will not be official until it is approved by the party. A PPP source said Somchai was favoured by former PM Thaksin, who still has influence in key issues. Somchai is a brother-in-law of Thaksin. But the five parties in the government coalition appeared to support Sompong because they did not want to see a new PM too close to Thaksin, the source said. Having Somchai as the new PM could make the government more vulnerable to attacks by the PAD because he was even closer to Thaksin than Samak, another source said. The group under Newin, believed to represent about 70 MPs, has now picked Surapong as its new favourite.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=130637

Very sad to see another victim in the making. A call from London makes all this possible.

[Plus]

Definition of Insanity: Doing the same things over and over again and expecting differert results!

Bye that definition.. Insanity is rampant... eg: fisherman, race car drivers, hunters...etc..etc

Fisherman do not expect to catch elephants in their nets, it's always fish and assorted seafood. Same with Thai politics - I can't see how the present system can produce honest politicians. It's been tried over and over again, and the result is always the same - same old faces serving same old feudal interests.

There was an article by Abhisit about a year ago about challenges facing politicians running in elections, it is simply impossible for them to win on their platform only - they need to serve powerful figures in exhchange for funds, and once elected they can't ignore their sponsors.

The only new entrants come from party lists, on both sides, hence the idea to separate local and national elections.

Rural folk might be smart when it comes to their own interests - 200 baht or a new road or a new klong, but those locally elected MPs are used/abused by party elite in Bangkok to further their party elite agenda that has nothing to do with what the rural folk elected them for.

I don't agree with this excluding some people from voting for whatever reason.

Contrary to the popular belief, no one is going to exlude anyone from voting, it's the myth perpetrated by anti-PAD posters here.

[pumpuiman]

Contrary to the popular belief, no one is going to exlude anyone from voting, it's the myth perpetrated by anti-PAD posters here.

And nearly every media outlet worldwide.

But I'm sure they got it all wrong.....

[younghusband]

Definition of Insanity: Doing the same things over and over again and expecting differert results!

Bye that definition.. Insanity is rampant... eg: fisherman, race car drivers, hunters...etc..etc

Fisherman do not expect to catch elephants in their nets, it's always fish and assorted seafood. Same with Thai politics - I can't see how the present system can produce honest politicians. It's been tried over and over again, and the result is always the same - same old faces serving same old feudal interests.

There was an article by Abhisit about a year ago about challenges facing politicians running in elections, it is simply impossible for them to win on their platform only - they need to serve powerful figures in exhchange for funds, and once elected they can't ignore their sponsors.

The only new entrants come from party lists, on both sides, hence the idea to separate local and national elections.

Rural folk might be smart when it comes to their own interests - 200 baht or a new road or a new klong, but those locally elected MPs are used/abused by party elite in Bangkok to further their party elite agenda that has nothing to do with what the rural folk elected them for.

I don't agree with this excluding some people from voting for whatever reason.

Contrary to the popular belief, no one is going to exlude anyone from voting, it's the myth perpetrated by anti-PAD posters here.

Time to remind ourselves of Chang Noi's last article I think.

CHANG NOI

What’s the problem about vote-buying and the “patronage system”?

1 sep 2008

Over the last couple of years, concern about vote-buying has been on the increase. The story goes like this. Voters upcountry are too poor and too poorly educated. Some sell their vote for spot cash. Others are victim of “the patronage system” and obey the instructions of a patron on how to vote, in return for continuing patronage of various kinds.

The argument then continues: vote-buying and the patronage system mean that one-man/one-vote elections cannot work in Thailand. There needs to be some “Thai-style” alternative. This might be some corporatist method of representation such as the PAD proposed. It might mean diminishing the power of the elective parliament, and returning more power to the bureaucracy.

According to legend, vote-buying began in spectacular fashion in Roi-et in 1981, engineered by people in the military. It then swelled over the following two decades. At election times, banks calculate massive rises in money circulation, and journalists love describing complex systems involving lotteries. A brilliant study done in Ayutthaya in the mid 1990s showed that monks, gunmen, and local officials were all deeply involved. Vote-buying is part of the political culture; of that there is little doubt.

But vote-buying is not a simple matter. The practice has been in place for a quarter-century. The number of elections has multiplied—for parliament, senate, municipality, provincial council, subdistrict council, and so on. Thais have become some of the most experienced voters in the world. There has been a lot of learning about how to use the vote.

In the early history of Thai vote-buying, candidates thrust red notes into voters’ hands in order to create an obligation. Once a voter had accepted the candidate’s generosity, it would be bad manners not to repay that generosity when casting the vote. But this kind of naïve transaction did not last long. By the mid 1990s, some voters would take money from every candidate, and then vote how they pleased. Others would only take from a candidate they had already decided to vote for, in order not to create an obligation.

Candidates still had to offer money. Not doing so would risk being branded as “ungenerous” and thus not worth electing. This was particularly true of candidates known to be rich. Vote-buying has thus become a bit like a candidate’s deposit, distributed among the voters rather than paid to the authorities.

By the mid 1990s, vote negotiation had become much more complex than these simple retail transactions. Voters understood that candidates had the potential to offer much greater benefits than a few red notes. They could bring infrastructure spending and development projects with much more impact in the locality. Communities negotiated with candidates to promise scheme, and held them to their promises by the threat of withdrawing their vote at the next poll. Parliament created the “MPs fund” to enable sitting members to fulfill these promises. Lots of local infrastructure got built.

Since then, the system has shifted again. The 1997 constitution began a deliberate attempt to de-link this kind of local pork-barrel from national politics. The funding for local schemes has been substantially transferred from the national budget to local government. MPs have less influence on central budget spending, and the MPs fund has disappeared. Elective provincial councils and municipalities now have big budgets. Many politicians have followed the money from national to local politics.

At the same time, the profile of the electorate has changed. The great 1986-96 boom boosted incomes, and the 1997 bust only temporarily knocked them back. The expansion of secondary education in the 1980s began to work through to the electorate.

Then Thaksin changed the game in national politics. He promised some attractive redistributive schemes, and delivered them. He centralized control over a fifth of the budget under his own executive authority, and toured the country dishing this out. The party and the prime minister became more important patrons than the local MP. Although the 2007 constitution has reversed some of this change, the memory still dominates.

In the last couple of years, there have been studies of election practice in the north, northeast, and south. The decision on casting a vote is now very complex and involves the party, the candidate, and the money. In the south, voters feel a strong emotional pull to vote Democrat. In the north and northeast, Thaksin’s schemes have created a strong pull towards PPP/TRT. Yet the candidate also undergoes scrutiny. Is he a local person, someone close to us? Can he get things done, and does he have the track record to prove it? Is he reasonably honest? Does he have the right kind of friends? Finally, does he prove his generosity with a gift? Only candidates known to have modest wealth are excused this obligation, yet can still be elected on grounds of their social contribution.

At the recent poll, there did not seem to be much money around. After three elections in three years, pockets were empty. Candidates feared disqualification. The issue at stake in the poll was so stark, that a few hundred baht was not likely to matter.

So why the current panic about vote-buying? The upcountry electorate is richer, better educated, and more experienced at elections than ever before. In truth, the problem is not that upcountry voters don’t know how to use their vote, and that the result is distorted by patronage and vote-buying. The problem is that they have learnt to use the vote only too well. Over four national polls, they have chosen very consistently and very rationally.

And, of course, that may be the real problem. Back when many upcountry electors sold their votes, and as a result their weight in national politics was zero, nobody cared so much about vote-buying. But now the electors have got smart, they have to be stopped. The bleating about vote-buying and patronage politics is simply an attempt to undermine electoral democracy because it seems to be working.

P.S Thanks SRJ for the copy/pasting lesson.

[chuang]

Samak bows out

Former prime minister Samak Sundaravej said he will end his role as leader of People Power Party.

The Nation 12 September 08

Thailand Prime Minister is sacked for a cooking show misdemeanour, while the PAD activists get a free pass breaking public order laws and impeding the business of government. What a mockery... where is Thailand headed ???

[h90]

Samak bows out

Former prime minister Samak Sundaravej said he will end his role as leader of People Power Party.

The Nation 12 September 08

Thailand Prime Minister is sacked for a cooking show misdemeanour, while the PAD activists get a free pass breaking public order laws and impeding the business of government. What a mockery... where is Thailand headed ???

Yes and it is good so.....PAD try to help the country.....Samak tried to help his bank account.....

Sondhi is even reported to leave Government house and come back, through the police.....So it seems even the police has a great sympathy for the PAD.

[nikster]

Also 'perhaps' worthy of a mention is the reported FACT the vast majority of controlling rice-millers in the NE whom the tragically-trapped and hard-working electoral 'bond-slaves' in the main PPP/TRT 'vote-growng' region are 'moon-lighting' as part of the vast NE PPP/TRT network of canvassers... [snip]

You are barking up the wrong tree here - that has nothing to do with voting or democracy, it's about the rule of the law, or lack thereof.

Democracy doesn't work if there are no laws, or if the laws are not enforced, or if there is no independent judiciary. Thailand is in the process of cleaning up its act in this department, and frankly, I don't see any other way out either, I just hope it works out and we end up with a state where criminals are prosecuted and appropriately sentenced even if they have connections.

Once that's in place, Democracy can start to work as intended, by the people, for the people. Until then, it's meaningless.

[kurtgruen]

Yes and it is good so.....PAD try to help the country.....Samak tried to help his bank account.....

Sondhi is even reported to leave Government house and come back, through the police.....So it seems even the police has a great sympathy for the PAD.

That's right. There are also more and more people jumping on the bandwagon with the PAD, now that they see that civil disobedience works. Samak's fall was the beginning of things to come. I believe that the government will disolveParliament soon. (of course, they all want to make sure that they get paid first. I don't think the big contractors want to pay out the kickbacks, until the contracts are actually awarded ;-)

[Samuian]

You are barking up the wrong tree here - that has nothing to do with voting or democracy, it's about the rule of the law, or lack thereof.

Democracy doesn't work if there are no laws, or if the laws are not enforced, or if there is no independent judiciary. Thailand is in the process of cleaning up its act in this department, and frankly, I don't see any other way out either, I just hope it works out and we end up with a state where criminals are prosecuted and appropriately sentenced even if they have connections.

Once that's in place, Democracy can start to work as intended, by the people, for the people. Until then, it's meaningless.

As HRH intended when he had a close word with the countries high judges, no other way to go and good so!

[hammered]

Yes and it is good so.....PAD try to help the country.....Samak tried to help his bank account.....

Sondhi is even reported to leave Government house and come back, through the police.....So it seems even the police has a great sympathy for the PAD.

That's right. There are also more and more people jumping on the bandwagon with the PAD, now that they see that civil disobedience works. Samak's fall was the beginning of things to come. I believe that the government will disolveParliament soon. (of course, they all want to make sure that they get paid first. I don't think the big contractors want to pay out the kickbacks, until the contracts are actually awarded ;-)

You got it there. Wonder if they'll pay out when parlaiment passes the budget or they'll wait to see what happens when all the projects end up challenged in court

[wensiensheng]

So who now will be the poor unfortunate take the helm of Thaksin inc?

Whoever does so is putting their future on the line. It probbaly wont worry an old has been like Samak who has nothing to look forward to but the names being put forward may not want to spend the rest of their days in exile or worse if things go wrong and not a lot has gone right for the PPP recently. Someone will have to take a long hard think before accepting the position of PPP head.

I wonder how Newin and the red guards will take this? Newin doesnt usually take defeat very well, and he was the one trying to get Samak back as PM at all costs.

Well right now there is an opening for compromise. However, compromise is a disaster for Thaksin's plan so I doubt we will get it unless his party does start to split away from him.

Ok this is cynical- but I agree Hammered- whoever the PPP puts up, will be tainted in the mind of the PAD. the PAD has fought two major battles in two years- won them both. But there are more battles to fight. So maybe its time the PAD just appointed a government,.

Right. Lets not bother with this democracy stuff. It's too time consuming when the PAD has to kick out the Government all the time. Easier to just let them appoint who they like. On the bright side for Toxsin, no need to spend money to buy votes for a government that the PAD then kick out.

Unless of course they can continue the entertainment for us to enjoy?

[hammered]

So who now will be the poor unfortunate take the helm of Thaksin inc?

Whoever does so is putting their future on the line. It probbaly wont worry an old has been like Samak who has nothing to look forward to but the names being put forward may not want to spend the rest of their days in exile or worse if things go wrong and not a lot has gone right for the PPP recently. Someone will have to take a long hard think before accepting the position of PPP head.

I wonder how Newin and the red guards will take this? Newin doesnt usually take defeat very well, and he was the one trying to get Samak back as PM at all costs.

Well right now there is an opening for compromise. However, compromise is a disaster for Thaksin's plan so I doubt we will get it unless his party does start to split away from him.

Ok this is cynical- but I agree Hammered- whoever the PPP puts up, will be tainted in the mind of the PAD. the PAD has fought two major battles in two years- won them both. But there are more battles to fight. So maybe its time the PAD just appointed a government,.

Right. Lets not bother with this democracy stuff. It's too time consuming when the PAD has to kick out the Government all the time. Easier to just let them appoint who they like. On the bright side for Toxsin, no need to spend money to buy votes for a government that the PAD then kick out.

Unless of course they can continue the entertainment for us to enjoy?

Wonder when he will learn that. That is a major piece of the game. He spends a fortune funding an election. Then the government falls and then spends another fortune....

Meanwhile his dosh is tied up in Thai banks, his Cambodian adventure faces the anti-Thai sentiment. So he has to sell his football club that was bought on borrowed money. His ability to play politcs is going to be sorely tested if there is another election soon, plus a party disolution is going tpo make it expensive to reassemble team Thaksin.

[steveromagnino]

>> I say bring on another election; with the fear of a few more red cards and slightly more aware voters, I suspect we would end up with a better distribution of votes to form a decent government - one rural idiots/gangster party plus one party for the city folk rather than the mess we have now with several rural idiots/gangster parties together with no brain power among them.

Oh dear, it seems some people are upset about parties. Let's be clear, I am not talking about voters, I am talking about candidates, and what better way to describe a party like PPP that has basically two policies - unsustainable giveaways to the rural poor and changing the constitution. As a party made up of the candidates I consider to be either gangsters (Chalerm types) or rural idiots; a few educated ones, but plenty....er.... not so much. Not sure which camp I would put some of them in, most are both.

Note I never say anything about the right of the rural poor to vote for whoever they want. I certainly don't think the rural poor are idiots; actually of the 300+ that work for my family I like and respect most of them; however where they are located they certainly have little idea of politics and thus always vote for who they are told to. Last election it was PPP. The ones before that it was TRT. They actually, well some of them, personally like Thaksin and enjoy telling me what he has done - this and that - usually not really showing the degree of understanding of economics that a similar group might choose to talk about in a business setting in BKK or Singapore. But at the end of the day, peer pressure, localised campaigning and the usual Pee-Nong type issues exist and they choose to use it how they wish with their vote.

Obviously they will usually vote for the same idiots they usually do, a point sadly missed a little by Chang Noi who completely bypassed the root of the TRT success formula which is to recruit MPs that are the most popular already in each rural area. How else can one explain the mass resignations from other parties by some candidates, the amalgamation of parties after 2001 to become the super TRT party and the sad reality that for the most part, other than BKK, we did not see new candidates but rather the same faces and families as always.

The cost thus is no longer buying votes at a person level, but buying candidates at a party level becomes paramount, as the voting patterns become more stable (i.e. one province ALWAYS votes for one family).

Some, like the Chidchobs, who I consider to be rural idiots provide a few crumbs for their community, but also there is a bit of a carrot and stick approach - for instance Chang Noi neglects to point out the TRT approach to say if you don't vote for us, we will give aid to the areas that vote TRT first and you second. Knowing that who each person votes for in many rural villages is an open secret (someone watches them vote in some cases, people of course talk, total numbers per voting booth are usually available) there is at least some element of voting as a group which is a very communal Thai style approach anyway.

I say, give them the right to vote, and police fairly, there may be a few more years of TRT madness but with the checks and balances intact (fair balanced media without interference, neutral courts, neutral senate, regulatory bodies) as set out in the 1997 Constitution that opportunity is significantly reduced.

So called first world countries end up with people like Bush, Helen Clark and Italy's equivalent of Thaksin; so no formula is perfect; but at least with some check and balance and oversight, people cannot go crazy.

I doubt I am saying anything not already known, but a lot of this stuff regarding rural voting patterns was learned by some from doing market research of rural voter behaviour, and then tracking it on a monthly basis to see which policies were most popular, which things should be done to get more votes etc - i.e. a political machine for the first time with market research experts involved in setting it up and (at least for the first couple of years) the party responded to what was popular. After that, most consultants to TRT will profess more faith was placed in fortune telling and so forth than any advisors :-)

Pierre -

Where is rice from.

From the ground. And yes, I eat it. Thanks to the people who work in the supply chain to provide it; they are supposed to receive a fair wage for doing so; in actuality I think they do better than that as my personal tax bill of 1m+ baht a year probably pays for a fair few health care visits and so forth for them. I don't begrudge that, but I am puzzled that apparently PAD types (of which i am certainly not one) want to deprive the rural poor of education; after all under TRT it wasn't like any real effort or time was spent on that. And certainly PPP have been a bit flat out trying to change the constitution rather than doing anything on it either.

As for the 111....this is a winning team????

Anyone who says that, we are seeing the same winning team there are proxies for almost every single one of them in power now. Well, possibly not Pimol but most of the others are either directly working or controlling factions.

Have they done anything for the poor?

Have they done anything for business?

Er..... pass. But anyhow, I can only think of a couple that could in any degree be seen as winners, in the most generous sense of the word. Classic PPP rhetoric, we can't have our winners, so you get the B team. As if the government would have operated any differently with fine people like Sudarat and Newin in power; you don't think the first thing they would try to do is self preservation of their mighty leader and their party???

Edited September 14, 2008 by steveromagnino

[animatic]

Sadly enough it seems the governing coalition leaders,

are the puppets of the puppet-master's puppets.

Hence the lack of coherent freelance statements and much backtracking.

A general incoherence of policy and aims.

We don't know what to real say until we get told.

[hammered]

>> I say bring on another election; with the fear of a few more red cards and slightly more aware voters, I suspect we would end up with a better distribution of votes to form a decent government - one rural idiots/gangster party plus one party for the city folk rather than the mess we have now with several rural idiots/gangster parties together with no brain power among them.

Oh dear, it seems some people are upset about parties. Let's be clear, I am not talking about voters, I am talking about candidates, and what better way to describe a party like PPP that has basically two policies - unsustainable giveaways to the rural poor and changing the constitution. As a party made up of the candidates I consider to be either gangsters (Chalerm types) or rural idiots; a few educated ones, but plenty....er.... not so much. Not sure which camp I would put some of them in, most are both.

Note I never say anything about the right of the rural poor to vote for whoever they want. I certainly don't think the rural poor are idiots; actually of the 300+ that work for my family I like and respect most of them; however where they are located they certainly have little idea of politics and thus always vote for who they are told to. Last election it was PPP. The ones before that it was TRT. They actually, well some of them, personally like Thaksin and enjoy telling me what he has done - this and that - usually not really showing the degree of understanding of economics that a similar group might choose to talk about in a business setting in BKK or Singapore. But at the end of the day, peer pressure, localised campaigning and the usual Pee-Nong type issues exist and they choose to use it how they wish with their vote.

Obviously they will usually vote for the same idiots they usually do, a point sadly missed a little by Chang Noi who completely bypassed the root of the TRT success formula which is to recruit MPs that are the most popular already in each rural area. How else can one explain the mass resignations from other parties by some candidates, the amalgamation of parties after 2001 to become the super TRT party and the sad reality that for the most part, other than BKK, we did not see new candidates but rather the same faces and families as always.

The cost thus is no longer buying votes at a person level, but buying candidates at a party level becomes paramount, as the voting patterns become more stable (i.e. one province ALWAYS votes for one family).

Some, like the Chidchobs, who I consider to be rural idiots provide a few crumbs for their community, but also there is a bit of a carrot and stick approach - for instance Chang Noi neglects to point out the TRT approach to say if you don't vote for us, we will give aid to the areas that vote TRT first and you second. Knowing that who each person votes for in many rural villages is an open secret (someone watches them vote in some cases, people of course talk, total numbers per voting booth are usually available) there is at least some element of voting as a group which is a very communal Thai style approach anyway.

I say, give them the right to vote, and police fairly, there may be a few more years of TRT madness but with the checks and balances intact (fair balanced media without interference, neutral courts, neutral senate, regulatory bodies) as set out in the 1997 Constitution that opportunity is significantly reduced.

So called first world countries end up with people like Bush, Helen Clark and Italy's equivalent of Thaksin; so no formula is perfect; but at least with some check and balance and oversight, people cannot go crazy.

I doubt I am saying anything not already known, but a lot of this stuff regarding rural voting patterns was learned by some from doing market research of rural voter behaviour, and then tracking it on a monthly basis to see which policies were most popular, which things should be done to get more votes etc - i.e. a political machine for the first time with market research experts involved in setting it up and (at least for the first couple of years) the party responded to what was popular. After that, most consultants to TRT will profess more faith was placed in fortune telling and so forth than any advisors :-)

Pierre -

Where is rice from.

From the ground. And yes, I eat it. Thanks to the people who work in the supply chain to provide it; they are supposed to receive a fair wage for doing so; in actuality I think they do better than that as my personal tax bill of 1m+ baht a year probably pays for a fair few health care visits and so forth for them. I don't begrudge that, but I am puzzled that apparently PAD types (of which i am certainly not one) want to deprive the rural poor of education; after all under TRT it wasn't like any real effort or time was spent on that. And certainly PPP have been a bit flat out trying to change the constitution rather than doing anything on it either.

As for the 111....this is a winning team????

Anyone who says that, we are seeing the same winning team there are proxies for almost every single one of them in power now. Well, possibly not Pimol but most of the others are either directly working or controlling factions.

Have they done anything for the poor?

Have they done anything for business?

Er..... pass. But anyhow, I can only think of a couple that could in any degree be seen as winners, in the most generous sense of the word. Classic PPP rhetoric, we can't have our winners, so you get the B team. As if the government would have operated any differently with fine people like Sudarat and Newin in power; you don't think the first thing they would try to do is self preservation of their mighty leader and their party???

An excellent post imho and one that should be required rading for anyone who wants to understand how up country voting and politics works.

I'll also add dont worry too much about what Chang Noi says under another moniker Chang Noi said in the wake of the recent military reshuffle that Samak had cemented his position with the military and would be with us for a long time yet. Prophetic words indeed and of course very wrong, but right now Thai analysts get so much wrong by fixating on their own assumptions and also only the tactics of what is happening in the politcal field although to be honest it is a tad difficult to talk about the strategies as they involve bigger things. Still anything for an analyst of Thailand right now must be taken with a pinch of salt as most seem to get everything wrong!

[hammered]

Sadly enough it seems the governing coalition leaders,

are the puppets of the puppet-master's puppets.

Hence the lack of coherent freelance statements and much backtracking.

A general incoherence of policy and aims.

We don't know what to real say until we get told.

They have to bend over and take it until the budget gets passed and the contractors subsequently relase the moolah for "fairly" winning the contracts or until th companies run by the MPs families "fairly" win the government concessions.

Right now if there were an election without the budget passed things would look very dodgy for the coalition allies and maybe even PPP.