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Maizefarmer

Oil Price

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Light Crude - yesterday: U$D 59 + a few cents

Brent Crude - yesterday: U$D 55 + a few cents

.... bets on its going to go further South - to the high 40's - now wouldn't that be good (?).

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Light Crude - yesterday: U$D 59 + a few cents

Brent Crude - yesterday: U$D 55 + a few cents

.... bets on its going to go further South - to the high 40's - now wouldn't that be good (?).

...and a lot of ppl were saying it would be $200 by xmas.

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The big boys say oil will settle in the 60/bbl range and everyone (on puduction side) will make money. The ultra high dollar areas, ulta deep offshore, artic circle area, and tree hugger areas (California) ?? maybe not. What I find more discourgeing is that oil has dropped from 146/bbl to 55/bbl and when you look at pump petrol/diesel price in Thailand the price drop has not been forthcoming.. Spot gasoline price is in the 1.35us dollar/gallon range but then I gess we have to make up the diesel deal made by the last PM at 37 baht a liter from Russia. I try not to be a negative nellie but when I see some of the prices that the consumer pays for, for big business profit, I get on my stump. I noticed today that PPT is running a 12/bbl profit on refined products, plus the by product sell. When this margin is compared to the real world, 4 to 5 dollar/bbl refining cost it makes me wonder. OK, I will get off of my stump and bless the crude oil price drop..

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True ..... the forecourt price has not as yet dropped - but it will: keep in mind that todays price (or last weeks', or whatever...) is the bulk contract price at the well - not the refinary: those contracts will start arriving at Sattahip or Sri Racha (for refining) in a months time or so, and it is then that the price drop will start to reflect on Thailands forecourts - though i have a sneaky feeling that the government is going to make a concerted effort to claw back at least some of the subsidy it handed out over this last year - which will mean it won't drop like for like, but it will drop, and I think we can still expect a significant drop.

Will it settle around $60? - who knows. Anything in the 50's to mid-60 will be fine - all my costing for next year is against 100 (+/- 10%), so that will be a 30%-40% saving - and for me thats a huge saving.

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To be honest low prices are a mixed blessing because they discourage us from seeking alternatives. Over the past two years there was a lot of talk about peak oil, bio-diesel and other sustainable energy sources.

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Light Crude - yesterday: U$D 59 + a few cents

Brent Crude - yesterday: U$D 55 + a few cents

.... bets on its going to go further South - to the high 40's - now wouldn't that be good (?).

good or not good is a matter of perspective. crude prices are good indicators in which direction global economies will go.

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Light Crude - yesterday: U$D 59 + a few cents

Brent Crude - yesterday: U$D 55 + a few cents

.... bets on its going to go further South - to the high 40's - now wouldn't that be good (?).

good or not good is a matter of perspective. crude prices are good indicators in which direction global economies will go.

...and not so long ago a lot of analysts were predicting $200 oil prices!

The amount of volatility in the markets at the moment (oil and stock markets) suggests that no-one is very sure what's going to happen next year, but the uncertainty is stopping anyone spending...

Safe investments don't exist any more

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Another mixed blessing is oil drops, your farming revenue (depending on crop) drops.

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To be honest low prices are a mixed blessing because they discourage us from seeking alternatives. Over the past two years there was a lot of talk about peak oil, bio-diesel and other sustainable energy sources.

I'd like to add a thought to this. Petroleum products are about the most developed opportunitistic revenue making commodity in the world, mining, refining, shipping and distribution. What else do people fight wars over? How else do people get obscenely rich at 150 or 40 dollars a barrel? How much has PTT spend on new service stations recently?

To me finding a new "hole in the ground" source is not the only answer for many that look at alternate fuels. For people who grow and process their own fuels the costs should be selfcontained where possible. Forget the cartels and the oil princes. Forget trying to emulate diesel, burn pure vegetable oil. Lower horsepower? So what? Else nothing is going to change soon.

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Surveys of retail (pump price) vs oil price increase, show a 8 day time frame for retail increase of 80% of a oil increase of 5% or greater with the full oil increase coming into play over the following 2 to 3 weeks. A fall in oil price by the same 5%, was followed by pump decrease spread over a 4 week time span with no big drop as noted in price increase cases. This is one of the reasons oil producers/fuel retailers are makeing unheard of profits over the past year and a half. Cost of exploration, drilling, completion, production, refining varies by local and many other factors, but 60 dollar a bbl seems to be a good target. This does not seem to satisfy some of the countries who are placeing large orders for military equipment etc. Much of the older well production in the middle east is being produced at a investment cost of 4 to 5 dollar/bbl, even throwing in inflation costs since the wells came on line. Since most governments tax fuel by volume used, the price at pump will have little impact except thru sales volume, which comes with lower retail prices, thus increasing tax revenue. The one observation I have made is a oil increase seems to be a excuse to raise retail price quickly, thus the consumer is paying higher price for fuel already in stock, thus financeing future purchases of higher priced oil. That additional monies contribute to the profits when prices drop due to different lag times. Thats my humble take of the market.

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In the long term low oil are being seen as a global finacial disaster, that is according to a financial report on msn

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Well that is a new twist, blame low oil price for a global financial disaster. The high price of oil did not prevent the financial mess we are in at present so how will low price contribute or make it worse? The financial groups who were playing the commodities futures market when prices were increasing must not have done too well, to be in the shape they are in. When I hear the UK financial experts? say keep your fingers crossed, when he was asked about future action, US experts? disagreeing on what measures to take, the European groups seem to be handleing the crises in different ways, I have doubts that there is a single cause or solution. Maybe the low oil price of the early 2000's (12/bbl) caused this whole mess. This sounds like something the Chavez's and other like minded groups of the world would come up with. I am not directing this at Mosha as he is the bearer of the glad tiddings from msn reports. This sounds like the Thia Finance Minister who allowed Thialand wouldnot be affected by the global downturn.

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I should have posted the link, but it was before my 2nd cup of coffee. The brain cell doesn't kick in until after 2 cups :o

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Ok I got a better explanation on the news about why very low oil prices are a bad thing. Low oil prices = low demand. Even though the wells have cut back production it is still not selling fast enough. Low demand = low business activity. Bear in mind that winter is usually when most oil is need, heating etc...

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