State Of Emergency Declared

[tigerbeer]

my wife was supposed to leave me alone here in chiang mai today for her to spend the weekend with her mum. and its not happening cause of this. now i am really pissed ! ..

Edited November 28, 2008 by tigerbeer

[hammered]

OK, as I expected (and said on Tues. in another thread), the SoE has been declared. No surprise here, whatsoever.

Let's skip to the end game and work backwards. The military supports the power group we can't discuss on TV. Thaksin, who has been perceived as a threat to this power group, has publicly said he is returning and will re-enter Thai politics. This leaves the military no choice. Expect to see a national unity government installed with the power to change the constitution which will install new politics structured so that democratic elections going forward will not allow the northeast to again elect people perceived to be a threat to that power group the military protects.

Now, how to get from a PPP led government with a majority of seats to a national unity government? For sure, PM Somchai is no fool, hence, we are seeing his reticence to quit and/or dissolve parliament. He knows there is an outside chance if he does dissolve parliament that some of his coalition parties could join with the Dem's, kicking the PPP out.

The ball is therefore in the military's court. From Anupong's comments, he doesn't want to act too soon, but as he has already said, he can do a coup in one hour. Recent troop movements makes that all the more possible and rumors are rife in Bangkok that something may happen tonight.

I think Anupong will play a bit more of a waiting game than that to see if a civil war starts (UDD - red vs. PAD - yellow). If it does, then he can enter the fray as the good guy restoring peace to Bangkok. If he sees the PAD being strong armed too violently by the police, that would be another invitation to jump in. He would much prefer a catalyst to where the military coming in is viewed as the peacekeeper, not as a takeover force. It always looks better to be invited into a house than breaking the front door down.

Anyway, one way or another, the military will protect those they are sworn to protect and in doing so I believe will install the national unity government that has been talked about for so long and ultimately, new politics will be installed.

Spot on, methinks.

I agree but with one proviso. Next Friday is a very important day to nearly all Thais so this matter must be concluded by then with the airports back to normal. Now whilst I agree Gen. Anupong may be playing a waiting game, it may require an "agent provocateur" to accelerate the process perhaps.

I pretty much concur with all written in these linked comments too. This cannot drag on for much longer and while reading the BKK Post over breakfast this morning I noticed a bit claiming 22 battalions had been put on alert as from wednesday night. Will the government return from Chiang Mai?

[APK]

I agree but with one proviso. Next Friday is a very important day to nearly all Thais so this matter must be concluded by then with the airports back to normal. Now whilst I agree Gen. Anupong may be playing a waiting game, it may require an "agent provocateur" to accelerate the process perhaps.

I guess we'll see sooner rather than later...

But I'm fairly sure it'll happen.

[Mobi]

This entire debate - not to mention the hours and hours of TV discussions and media analysis - is a complete waste of time.

Everyone with anything more than a rudimentary knowledge of Thailand knows what it takes to end this debacle. As that subject cannot be discussed, every other argument or conjecture is just pissing in the wind.

I agree

So do I.

And I don't want to appear patronising (and if I do it's just too bad ), but it is evident that a vast majority of posters have absolutely no conception of Thai culture, Thai history, and cannot get it through their thick heads that this is Asia - not Europe, and things are done differently here.

Their anger, on all sides of the spectrum, beggars belief, and simply reinforces their ignorance.

If you want to start learning something about this country:-

lesson one: absolutely nothing is what it seems to be.......

lesson two: if you start comparing Thai ethical standards, morals and culture with western ethical standards, morals and culture, you are lost before you start....

That'll do for now

Let the flames begin

[newtronbom]

Any PAD supporters still holed up at the airport have ZERO sympathy from me if they get hurt or killed. They know what they did, they know what's coming. You can't just seize an international airport and expect to be greeted with flowers and cookies.

If they had seized the JFK or L.A. airport, it would have ended a long time ago, and probably much worse than the Thai police will hopefully end it tonight. As far as I'm concerned, if you run past security at the JFK or L.A. airport, protesting something or not, you get shot in the back before you get anywhere. The Thai government and police have been more than patient, but enough is enough.

I fully agree with you. If this was any where in the west, there would have been a much stronger response by police. It is way past time the Gvt. took off the "soft gloves" and got these protesters out. They are ignoring a direct order of the court as well. The Gvt. doesn't need any further excuses to act strongly in my opinion. This country is going to take a long time to get over this no matter who is in power. They have just lost the prime tourist season any way. 500 mill a month is on the low side. what about all those who have fruit and veges rotting at the airport? Who will reimburse them? Will "PAD"????

[Jai Dee]

Chamlong warns police of people's uprising if protesters forcefully dispersed

Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, Friday warned police that the people nationwide will rise up against the police and government if police use force to break up demonstrations.

Chamlong said the PAD has prepared the third set of leaders to lead the protesters if the first and second sets of leaders were arrested.

If all leaders were arrested, the people would rise up against the government and no one would be there to control the angry crowds, he said.

Source: The Nation - 28 November 2008

[animatic]

OK, as I expected (and said on Tues. in another thread), the SoE has been declared. No surprise here, whatsoever.

Let's skip to the end game and work backwards. The military supports the power group we can't discuss on TV. Thaksin, who has been perceived as a threat to this power group, has publicly said he is returning and will re-enter Thai politics. This leaves the military no choice. Expect to see a national unity government installed with the power to change the constitution which will install new politics structured so that democratic elections going forward will not allow the northeast to again elect people perceived to be a threat to that power group the military protects.

Now, how to get from a PPP led government with a majority of seats to a national unity government? For sure, PM Somchai is no fool, hence, we are seeing his reticence to quit and/or dissolve parliament. He knows there is an outside chance if he does dissolve parliament that some of his coalition parties could join with the Dem's, kicking the PPP out.

The ball is therefore in the military's court. From Anupong's comments, he doesn't want to act too soon, but as he has already said, he can do a coup in one hour. Recent troop movements makes that all the more possible and rumors are rife in Bangkok that something may happen tonight.

I think Anupong will play a bit more of a waiting game than that to see if a civil war starts (UDD - red vs. PAD - yellow). If it does, then he can enter the fray as the good guy restoring peace to Bangkok. If he sees the PAD being strong armed too violently by the police, that would be another invitation to jump in. He would much prefer a catalyst to where the military coming in is viewed as the peacekeeper, not as a takeover force. It always looks better to be invited into a house than breaking the front door down.

Anyway, one way or another, the military will protect those they are sworn to protect and in doing so I believe will install the national unity government that has been talked about for so long and ultimately, new politics will be installed.

New politics as stated on the PAD stages will likely not appear, but some other version of politics is likely.

Thaksin and crew have one great legacy, thay have actively divided the country to the point of near civil war.

This by itself is enough of a htreat to demand their being removed from the levers of power.

Add to that the running ineptitudes in a LARGE way of this PPP government.

The genie of north east electoral power will never go back in the bottle,

but no doubt efforts will be made to give them DIFFERENT choices to make, than the PPP.

Excessive violence vs PAD will be a catalyst I suspect.

The end game is approaching for sure.

Don't call for a coup, don't call for smashing the muppets heads,

don't call for stopping 'embarrasment' on the worlds stage,

you might get much more of it than your worst nightmares...

This won't be walk up, pick up a sitting grandmother

and carry her to a waiting truck one by one. Think of Tak Bai for a minute.

Think of the little people who believe they are doing right., even as you disagree,

brainwashed you say deserve what they get you say,

and if it was you being removed, for your present feelings and statements,

how would YOU want that done?

And look at Mumbai...

you really want something similar to displace THAT news story.

I see way too many calls for carnage here and it amazes me.

Since when is national embarrassment a valid reason for death and destruction?

[newtronbom]

Sorry. I meant to say 500 mill a day!!

[solent01]

my wife was supposed to leave me alone here in chiang mai today for her to spend the weekend with her mum. and its not happening cause of this. now i am really pissed ! ..

You have my sympathy, no boys night out then?

[MyphuketLife]

No, you misunderstand.

I am talking about IQ tests and un-partisan politcal awareness.

Neither require any more than the ability to talk / listen and / or read / write.

Let’s see your IQ test would just be:

Thai person walks into testing room, instructor says please site down. Tester sits down, a piece of paper says "write your name", the tester writes his/her name. Instructor says "please state your name", tester says "My name is XXXX". Instructor says "okay you can read/write and listen... You passed!!!!"

Is that all you want? Or do you want a true IQ test that asks questions including science, history, math, comprehensive reading? If you want a true IQ test then my first points are all valid, and even if you don’t realize it you a for class segregation .

[thaimiller]

This entire debate - not to mention the hours and hours of TV discussions and media analysis - is a complete waste of time.

Everyone with anything more than a rudimentary knowledge of Thailand knows what it takes to end this debacle. As that subject cannot be discussed, every other argument or conjecture is just pissing in the wind.

100% correct.

[hammered]

This entire debate - not to mention the hours and hours of TV discussions and media analysis - is a complete waste of time.

Everyone with anything more than a rudimentary knowledge of Thailand knows what it takes to end this debacle. As that subject cannot be discussed, every other argument or conjecture is just pissing in the wind.

Staying away from what cannot be discussed here, I disagree with your premise. That would be a short term solution and we have had cooling off periods on and off for 3 years (albeit in different forms). This needs to be settled once and for all. No more short term solutions.

Simply put, Thaksin is a perceived threat to the power group the military protects and Thaksin has said he will return to Thai politics to try and gain control again.

If Thaksin succeeds, everything else is a moot point. If, instead, the military steps in, they will either form a national unity government to change the constitution to allow for a newly designed democratic format or (HIGHLY UNLIKELY), revert back to the days of a strong military dictatorship.

This is a very clear, neutral and unemotive descrition of the way things stand. It is just a matter of who wins. Persoanlly I would recommend this as required reading before entering the debate. There are a lot of views clouded by emotion and closeness to what is happening that miss the real point of what this conflict is about. I would add the proviso that there are other aspects to what is developing in Thailand but the central theme right now is as set out above, the other developments will affect later.

[scratt]

No, you misunderstand.

I am talking about IQ tests and un-partisan politcal awareness.

Neither require any more than the ability to talk / listen and / or read / write.

Let’s see your IQ test would just be:

Thai person walks into testing room, instructor says please site down. Tester sits down, a piece of paper says "write your name", the tester writes his/her name. Instructor says "please state your name", tester says "My name is XXXX". Instructor says "okay you can read/write and listen... You passed!!!!"

Is that all you want? Or do you want a true IQ test that asks questions including science, history, math, comprehensive reading? If you want a true IQ test then my first points are all valid, and even if you don’t realize it you a for class segregation .

I think you need to go and read wikipedia or something, and then come back and discuss IQ properly.

[C4Chilli]

This entire debate - not to mention the hours and hours of TV discussions and media analysis - is a complete waste of time.

Everyone with anything more than a rudimentary knowledge of Thailand knows what it takes to end this debacle. As that subject cannot be discussed, every other argument or conjecture is just pissing in the wind.

I totally agree also.

Maybe that is the reason nothing has been done by any of the authorities... yet.

A very sad time indeed to see Thai fighting Thai.

[Jai Dee]

Chamlong says senior person calls him to end protests

Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, said Friday morning that a senior person called him to end the rallies against the government.

Speaking to the crowd at a PAD rally site at the Don Mueang Airport, Chamlong said he replied that the people could not stop.

He said although a lot of damages have been done to the country's economy, the PAD was not the source of the problem.

He said the government was the source of the problem so the PAD would not stop until the government resigns and cancels its plan to amend the Constitution.

Source: The Nation - 28 November 2008

[Journalist]

I was supervisor of riot control squad in maximum security prison in NY for 15 years and have dealt with many situations involving barricaded people, hostage situations , riots, etc. This is the procedure they should use. First, they must calculate ICT and LCT of chemical agentsGas) to be used. This is a formula based on cubic area of the enclosed area where gas will be deployed. ICT is the concentration of agent which will incapacitate the target subjects so they will either evacuate the area or be physically removed. LCT is the cncentration which will cause death to exposed people within 1 hour. In NY we used CS gas which has more severe effects on the targets than CN(tear Gas) but is also less lethal. Then you must decide which form of dispersal system. Mainly hand grenades or projectile grenades. In enclosed quarters such as airport non-combustibal grenades must be used. Then before deploying the agent you must first announce to the target subjects it will be deployed, and anyone with heart condition or respiratory problems should vacagte the premises as they could die as a result of exposure. All people with contact lenses should take them out as gas will fuse lenses to the retina.

Gas should be deployed in pre-determined location to force targets into desired evacuation area. They must have an escape route or they will turn against the response team in panic. When gas is deployed, response team will wait for agent to take effect before moving in. They should enter in phalanx formation with shields and push any targets still remaining in area into evacuation location. Once outside, target subjects should be restrained with flex-cuffs and placed in open air.They should be told not to rub their eyes prior to this as it makes gas effects worse. After everyone removed they should get imediate medical treatment and decontamination. In this case I feel they should treat innocents(Non-protestors) first. After evacuation, open all window and doors, place fans near exits and turn off air con as heat helps diissipate the agents. Also then they must search for any explosives or booby trapls left as scene,

How can gas fuse a contact lense to the retina? The retina is on the inside of the eyeball at the back.

[skooldaze]

It is UNSTABLE. What planet are you living on?

Unstable in political terms...Yes..but does that mean the PAD is going to break down my hotel door and and strangle me with a yellow shirt..should i and every other farang leave the country by train??

If you want to live in a country that respects democracy, personal freedom and the rule of law you should leave any way you can. None of those three items apply to Thailand. And if you have children here, do you want them to live in a place with no sunshine laws, where information to the public from ALL public agencies is restricted and where they can't go more than five years without a coup? Get on that train brutha! I'm leaving by plane in the next few weeks when flights start running. I started packing today. NO KIDDING.

Are you having a garage sale?

yeah buddy. I'll be selling my desktop Dell that I bought in December, my Honda City (three years old) a TV and other sundries. You can mail me if you're interested.

[PeaceBlondie]

Human shields. I was a human shield once in Mexico, by my own choosing. The local Jesuiit priest commended me for it, and I thanked him. My friend was doing much the same in Iraq, voluntarily.

The term has more than one definition. From what I understand, there are almost no tourists or farang or airline passengers left at Suvanabhumi now, and very few airline or airport employees. Almost all PAD protesters. I cannot read Thai, but I imagine they are being offered up as human shields. They are very foolish, but it appears they are there by their own choosing. If they choose to die virtually unarmed against an invading army of their own country, let them do so. That may be more noble and Thai and Buddhist than to be in the invading police and army.

[Jai Dee]

Police promise not to use violence to end besieging of Bangkok international airport

Pol Maj Gen Piya Sorntrakul, deputy commissioner of the Police Provincial Bureau 1, said Friday that police would not use violence to try to end the protest at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport.

"We are careful about steps to be taken," Piya said.

"We will definitely not use violence but we will follow every step of the law and will negotiate with the protesters. We are all Thais so talk should be the best policy."

Source: The Nation - 28 November 2008

[grandpops]

Chamlong says senior person calls him to end protests

Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, said Friday morning that a senior person called him to end the rallies against the government.

Speaking to the crowd at a PAD rally site at the Don Mueang Airport, Chamlong said he replied that the people could not stop.

He said although a lot of damages have been done to the country's economy, the PAD was not the source of the problem.

He said the government was the source of the problem so the PAD would not stop until the government resigns and cancels its plan to amend the Constitution.

Source: The Nation - 28 November 2008

Just giving them that extra bit of rope I feel.

The article you published from the Straits Times can also be taken to be the opinion of the Government and "Elite educated Thai Businessmen" would do well to heed that and get their muppets back on the leash.

This could be a turning point for Chamlong as unlike in the past where fascist idiots get off scott free, I have a feeling he will be dealt with

This "Coup by cowardice" is never going to work as no Government in the world will recognise any of them Period. The US is bound by law not give any aid to them under these circumstances... If you remember the debates from the last Junta.

Breaking

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081128/wl_as...ZhBaFqedYABxg8F

The seat of power is safely in the North this time, not out of the Country during the last coup! Bangkok left to anarchy at the whim of those so so "educated" Thais in the Military.

They want to coup but the slipery goverment is not rolling over and playing dead this time. How about slashing the military budget and using their beautiful golf course lands and training ranges as farming land. Allocate it to the poor and put the Army out of work. Who is paying their salaries btw.

No problem moving seats of power. It's been done before and Bangkok could soon be a thing of the past, a sory of port city like Hull, Zeebrugge, Hamburg etc. Useful but not that important.

Who is the famous entertainment business going to entertain this month! Themselves by the look of it.

Edited November 28, 2008 by grandpops

[quiksilva]

Chamlong says senior person calls him to end protests

Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, said Friday morning that a senior person called him to end the rallies against the government.

Speaking to the crowd at a PAD rally site at the Don Mueang Airport, Chamlong said he replied that the people could not stop.

He said although a lot of damages have been done to the country's economy, the PAD was not the source of the problem.

He said the government was the source of the problem so the PAD would not stop until the government resigns and cancels its plan to amend the Constitution.

Source: The Nation - 28 November 2008

This story right here goes to show that the PAD are NOT protecting the power group as some have speculated, and that they are NOT working together.

To me this shows that the PAD are essentially committed only to their own cause and nothing else matters, not even the requests of a senior person.

With this stance Chamlong I suspect has sealed his fate along with his supporters.

Batten down the hatches.

[ferryb]

Any PAD supporters still holed up at the airport have ZERO sympathy from me if they get hurt or killed. They know what they did, they know what's coming. You can't just seize an international airport and expect to be greeted with flowers and cookies.

If they had seized the JFK or L.A. airport, it would have ended a long time ago, and probably much worse than the Thai police will hopefully end it tonight. As far as I'm concerned, if you run past security at the JFK or L.A. airport, protesting something or not, you get shot in the back before you get anywhere. The Thai government and police have been more than patient, but enough is enough.

Please Americans do NOT comment on this situation, you have a lot of work to do in your own country and Irak for instance. So please leave this alone.

[Wolfie]

Police promise not to use violence to end besieging of Bangkok international airport

Pol Maj Gen Piya Sorntrakul, deputy commissioner of the Police Provincial Bureau 1, said Friday that police would not use violence to try to end the protest at the Suvarnabhumi International Airport.

"We are careful about steps to be taken," Piya said.

"We will definitely not use violence but we will follow every step of the law and will negotiate with the protesters. We are all Thais so talk should be the best policy."

Source: The Nation - 28 November 2008

I can picture it now "Leave the airport now! If you stay i will have to issue you a fine of 200b! You can pay either 100b right now or go to the station and pay the full 200b"

[WinnieTheKhwai]

This could be a turning point for Chamlong as unlike in the past where fascist idiots get off scott free, I have a feeling he will be dealt with

I sincerely hope so.

What I don't understand though is why even a very ineffective PM can't get a couple big Thai Airways jets, load them to the brim with LOYAL up-country police at for example Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen arports, and fly them into Suvarnabhumi to kick the thugs out, requiring just MODERATE force. Don't even give them guns or other lethal weapons.

Solved, and no need for the insubordinate army or BKK police wimps.

[animatic]

I agree but with one proviso. Next Friday is a very important day to nearly all Thais so this matter must be concluded by then with the airports back to normal. Now whilst I agree Gen. Anupong may be playing a waiting game, it may require an "agent provocateur" to accelerate the process perhaps.

I guess we'll see sooner rather than later...

But I'm fairly sure it'll happen.

All along I have thought that PAD IS that 'agent provocateur'.

And not much else, certainly not a political party, nor future governing agent.

They have been the stalking horse to force a Thaksin clique mis-step AGAIN...

[MILT]

I was supervisor of riot control squad in maximum security prison in NY for 15 years and have dealt with many situations involving barricaded people, hostage situations , riots, etc. This is the procedure they should use. First, they must calculate ICT and LCT of chemical agentsGas) to be used. This is a formula based on cubic area of the enclosed area where gas will be deployed. ICT is the concentration of agent which will incapacitate the target subjects so they will either evacuate the area or be physically removed. LCT is the cncentration which will cause death to exposed people within 1 hour. In NY we used CS gas which has more severe effects on the targets than CN(tear Gas) but is also less lethal. Then you must decide which form of dispersal system. Mainly hand grenades or projectile grenades. In enclosed quarters such as airport non-combustibal grenades must be used. Then before deploying the agent you must first announce to the target subjects it will be deployed, and anyone with heart condition or respiratory problems should vacagte the premises as they could die as a result of exposure. All people with contact lenses should take them out as gas will fuse lenses to the retina.

Gas should be deployed in pre-determined location to force targets into desired evacuation area. They must have an escape route or they will turn against the response team in panic. When gas is deployed, response team will wait for agent to take effect before moving in. They should enter in phalanx formation with shields and push any targets still remaining in area into evacuation location. Once outside, target subjects should be restrained with flex-cuffs and placed in open air.They should be told not to rub their eyes prior to this as it makes gas effects worse. After everyone removed they should get imediate medical treatment and decontamination. In this case I feel they should treat innocents(Non-protestors) first. After evacuation, open all window and doors, place fans near exits and turn off air con as heat helps diissipate the agents. Also then they must search for any explosives or booby trapls left as scene,

How can gas fuse a contact lense to the retina? The retina is on the inside of the eyeball at the back.

First of all this is not a prison riot, and second of all their are seniors and children in the mix. Get your head examined!

[brahmburgers]

This entire debate - not to mention the hours and hours of TV discussions and media analysis - is a complete waste of time.

Everyone with anything more than a rudimentary knowledge of Thailand knows what it takes to end this debacle. As that subject cannot be discussed, every other argument or conjecture is just pissing in the wind.

I agree

I agree

I don't agree. It's ok to have discussions. If it's not your thing, log off. If Bendix or Wolfie or H90, with their superior insights of Thailand, know what it takes to end this debacle (airports closed, etc.) - then please enlighten us. Yet, by doing so, they're entering in to the debate, and thereby adding to their described 'complete waste of time.'

A farang who wrote a newspaper column for Bkk Post - used to often end his paragraphs with 'nuff said.' ...as if his opinion was the final word on everything. I don't like that attitude - of being Mr. Know It All.

Much better is to offer opinions - and then listen to others' responses - back and forth. In a word; 'dialogue.' That's what these topics on Thaivisa offer. For sure, there will be many opinions you don't agree with, but you can enter your own ideas, or go off to do something else. To just throw mud at the whole process is a cop out - especially if your so-called 'solution' is not articulated - and you resort to calling everyone in the debate stupid.

Edited November 28, 2008 by brahmburgers

[glyph]

"...the fact [is]that the PAD is paying every demonstrator at the airport..."

PAD pays every demonstrator - airport or not - 200THB/day. Two of my acquaintances have been on the PAD deomnstrators payroll for several weeks. Characteristically, PAD refuses to pay the demonstrators every few days, just to keep them angry.

The question is...who benefits by the turmoil?

[Kerryd]

How can gas fuse a contact lense to the retina? The retina is on the inside of the eyeball at the back.

Agreed.

I've spent a lot of time exposed to various concentrations of tear gas over the years. We used to be in gas huts where the gas was so thick, you couldn't see across a 20' room.

The problem with contacts (I know as I wear them) is that the gas can get between the lens and the eye and continue to irritate/burn. Unless you remove the contacts, you can't flush your eyes to get rid of the gas.

Whenever we knew we were going to the gas hut, I wore my glasses. The real problem was when we would be out doing training somewhere and someone would toss out some gas grenades. No time to remove the contacts, so you made sure you got your gas mask on in a hurry !

(They would often throw regular smoke grenades first, then toss the gas afterwards. You learned real quick that there is a definite difference between the sound of a smoke grenade and the sound of a tear gas grenade !)

[Plus]

Teh reds will throw their weight around if there's another coup, Anupong must plan it really carefully to avoid any confrontation with the people.