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I'd go with Buffet on this one. Gold is something you buy for emotional reasons, not as an investment. I think his comparison with land is realistic and shows that gold is actually a dead weight in a portfolio. The only problem people have with investments is choosing a good one - not an easy matter.

This thread was started in response to the financial crisis in 2008/9 and here we are still talking about financial crisis. One has to ask "What crisis?". The markets of all kinds oscillate according to the whim of the traders, not the reality of the financial world.

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I'd go with Buffet on this one. Gold is something you buy for emotional reasons, not as an investment. I think his comparison with land is realistic and shows that gold is actually a dead weight in a portfolio. The only problem people have with investments is choosing a good one - not an easy matter.

This thread was started in response to the financial crisis in 2008/9 and here we are still talking about financial crisis. One has to ask "What crisis?". The markets of all kinds oscillate according to the whim of the traders, not the reality of the financial world.

" One has to ask "What crisis?"

but what measurable improvements have there been to the global economy since 2008 other than the fact that the global debt has continued to grow now reaching $56 trillion ( with not even a hint of reducing it or paying it back ) and with no clear direction how the now faltering " growth " around the world can possibly be rekindled?

I suggest the crisis is a realisation the global economy like a drug addict seems totally reliant on artificial credit based stimulus.

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

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I'd go with Buffet on this one. Gold is something you buy for emotional reasons, not as an investment. I think his comparison with land is realistic and shows that gold is actually a dead weight in a portfolio. The only problem people have with investments is choosing a good one - not an easy matter.

This thread was started in response to the financial crisis in 2008/9 and here we are still talking about financial crisis. One has to ask "What crisis?". The markets of all kinds oscillate according to the whim of the traders, not the reality of the financial world.

" One has to ask "What crisis?"

but what measurable improvements have there been to the global economy since 2008 other than the fact that the global debt has continued to grow now reaching $56 trillion ( with not even a hint of reducing it or paying it back ) and with no clear direction how the now faltering " growth " around the world can possibly be rekindled?

I suggest the crisis is a realisation the global economy like a drug addict seems totally reliant on artificial credit based stimulus.

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

"Global debt" is a fiction. To whom is it owed? The moon? ;)

Simple accounting would be much more satisfactory in explaining things to the general public. A country's debt as a standalone figure actually means diddly-squat. A balance sheet would be much more illuminating.

Crisis is a financial traders friend - - hence the plethora of them. It was interesting to see the Chinese talking about talking action against short selling if it was deemed to be malicious. Computer-driven trading is a curse on what should be a human-driven market. Confidence is the key in trading -- nothing to do with real values of anything. Computers obfuscate the level of confidence and this produces the wild swings we see now.

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I'd go with Buffet on this one. Gold is something you buy for emotional reasons, not as an investment. I think his comparison with land is realistic and shows that gold is actually a dead weight in a portfolio. The only problem people have with investments is choosing a good one - not an easy matter.

This thread was started in response to the financial crisis in 2008/9 and here we are still talking about financial crisis. One has to ask "What crisis?". The markets of all kinds oscillate according to the whim of the traders, not the reality of the financial world.

" One has to ask "What crisis?"

but what measurable improvements have there been to the global economy since 2008 other than the fact that the global debt has continued to grow now reaching $56 trillion ( with not even a hint of reducing it or paying it back ) and with no clear direction how the now faltering " growth " around the world can possibly be rekindled?

I suggest the crisis is a realisation the global economy like a drug addict seems totally reliant on artificial credit based stimulus.

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

"Global debt" is a fiction. To whom is it owed? The moon? wink.png

Simple accounting would be much more satisfactory in explaining things to the general public. A country's debt as a standalone figure actually means diddly-squat. A balance sheet would be much more illuminating.

Crisis is a financial traders friend - - hence the plethora of them. It was interesting to see the Chinese talking about talking action against short selling if it was deemed to be malicious. Computer-driven trading is a curse on what should be a human-driven market. Confidence is the key in trading -- nothing to do with real values of anything. Computers obfuscate the level of confidence and this produces the wild swings we see now.

Of course it’s very easy for you to say that coming from a country that has more than doubled its debts since 2007. In fact America’s debt is now so large that it is mathematically impossible to pay it off.

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I'd go with Buffet on this one. Gold is something you buy for emotional reasons, not as an investment. I think his comparison with land is realistic and shows that gold is actually a dead weight in a portfolio. The only problem people have with investments is choosing a good one - not an easy matter.

This thread was started in response to the financial crisis in 2008/9 and here we are still talking about financial crisis. One has to ask "What crisis?". The markets of all kinds oscillate according to the whim of the traders, not the reality of the financial world.

" One has to ask "What crisis?"

but what measurable improvements have there been to the global economy since 2008 other than the fact that the global debt has continued to grow now reaching $56 trillion ( with not even a hint of reducing it or paying it back ) and with no clear direction how the now faltering " growth " around the world can possibly be rekindled?

I suggest the crisis is a realisation the global economy like a drug addict seems totally reliant on artificial credit based stimulus.

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

"Global debt" is a fiction. To whom is it owed? The moon? wink.png

Simple accounting would be much more satisfactory in explaining things to the general public. A country's debt as a standalone figure actually means diddly-squat. A balance sheet would be much more illuminating.

Crisis is a financial traders friend - - hence the plethora of them. It was interesting to see the Chinese talking about talking action against short selling if it was deemed to be malicious. Computer-driven trading is a curse on what should be a human-driven market. Confidence is the key in trading -- nothing to do with real values of anything. Computers obfuscate the level of confidence and this produces the wild swings we see now.

Of course it’s very easy for you to say that coming from a country that has more than doubled its debts since 2007. In fact America’s debt is now so large that it is mathematically impossible to pay it off.

Please don't try to personalise this. The concept of national debt has got nothing to do with the posters nationality.

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" One has to ask "What crisis?"

but what measurable improvements have there been to the global economy since 2008 other than the fact that the global debt has continued to grow now reaching $56 trillion ( with not even a hint of reducing it or paying it back ) and with no clear direction how the now faltering " growth " around the world can possibly be rekindled?

I suggest the crisis is a realisation the global economy like a drug addict seems totally reliant on artificial credit based stimulus.

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

"Global debt" is a fiction. To whom is it owed? The moon? wink.png

Simple accounting would be much more satisfactory in explaining things to the general public. A country's debt as a standalone figure actually means diddly-squat. A balance sheet would be much more illuminating.

Crisis is a financial traders friend - - hence the plethora of them. It was interesting to see the Chinese talking about talking action against short selling if it was deemed to be malicious. Computer-driven trading is a curse on what should be a human-driven market. Confidence is the key in trading -- nothing to do with real values of anything. Computers obfuscate the level of confidence and this produces the wild swings we see now.

Of course it’s very easy for you to say that coming from a country that has more than doubled its debts since 2007. In fact America’s debt is now so large that it is mathematically impossible to pay it off.

Please don't try to personalise this. The concept of national debt has got nothing to do with the posters nationality.

Simple accounting would be much more satisfactory in explaining things to the general public. A country's debt as a standalone figure actually means diddly-squat. A balance sheet would be much more illuminating.

……. Except some liabilities don’t show up on such balance sheets?ermm.gif

The US government has about $70 trillion in off-balance sheet liabilities

the US has large stockpile of potential and actual liabilities that don’t show up on as actual debt outstanding. In fact, a new working paper by University of California-San Diego economics professor James Hamilton estimates that the US was on the hook for more than $70 trillion in off-balance sheet liabilities at the end of 2012. Yes, trillion.

http://qz.com/111454/the-us-government-has-about-70-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-liabilities/

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Accounts are like statistics -- they can be manipulated in many ways. Honesty and open-ness are not habitual traits of any politically driven accountant. One has to look beneath the surface, and be aware of the sponsors and agendas of the people writing the reports.

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$70 trillion

the-us-government-has-about-70-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-liabilities

http://qz.com/111454/the-us-government-has-about-70-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-liabilities/

an excellent paper pointing out that >90% of this trillions consist of guarantees and PVs as well as NPVs extrapolated and based on potential future liabilities.

if rice farmers and goldlovers would concentrate more on tangible facts instead of gloom&doom slogans which fit their agenda they'd arrive at this...

...summary: not w00t.gif but coffee1.gif

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The Next Financial Crash. “The Writing is on the Wall”. Don’t Say “You Weren’t Warned”

It was said after the last financial crash that “no one could’ve seen it coming”. This was not so back then and is not so today.

If you were looking for the truth in 2007, the average investor had ample warning from many sources warning of what was to come.

After the biggest financial and social crash in history occurs, “they” will say you were warned! Who are “they” and how exactly were we warned? For several years and in particular the last 12 months, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) have been issuing warning after warning. They have truly warned us as I will show you. Do I believe they did this out of the goodness of their hearts? No, I believe it has been in “c.y.a” fashion followed by their laughter because the sheep have and will sleep through it all until it’s too late.

The warnings are now much louder, far easier to hear and coming from some mainstream and even “official sources”. Are you listening?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-next-financial-crash-the-writing-is-on-the-wall-dont-say-you-werent-warned/5467194

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  • 1 month later...

Bring it on! Nothing better than plenty of blood in the streets.

Don't worry it's coming.....................

The apologists for the warped ideology that has resulted in $10 trillion of additional debt being layered on the original un-payable $52 trillion, argue subprime lending is lower than the 2008 peak, so all is well. They fail to realize the system is far more fragile and will collapse once the next Lehman moment arrives. The country is already in, or headed into recession. All economic indicators are flashing red. The stock market has fallen over 10% in the last month. Virtually every new car owner you see driving that fancy BMW, Lexus, or Volvo is underwater on their auto loan. Home price growth has stalled at record levels. Mortgage rates are poised to rise from record lows. We all know what happens next. Look out below.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/09/25/two-outs-in-the-bottom-of-the-ninth/

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Completely forgot my recent post.

Nostradamus - when will the blood flow? Bucket loads?

That is something I enjoy provided it is not MY blood.

What I found hilarious yesterday was on the BBC world TV channel at the bottom of the television screen is like a tickertape with all the up-to-date news continually scrolling by and there amongst it all was this short statement “ Fed “ on track “ to raise interest rates soon “ cheesy.gif cheesy.gif what does on track mean?

I mean was that for the benefit of just the sheeple and do they really know what they are doing at this stagefacepalm.gif

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Completely forgot my recent post.

Nostradamus - when will the blood flow? Bucket loads?

That is something I enjoy provided it is not MY blood.

What I found hilarious yesterday was on the BBC world TV channel at the bottom of the television screen is like a tickertape with all the up-to-date news continually scrolling by and there amongst it all was this short statement “ Fed “ on track “ to raise interest rates soon “ cheesy.gif cheesy.gif what does on track mean?

I mean was that for the benefit of just the sheeple and do they really know what they are doing at this stagefacepalm.gif

It's all part of the attempts by the media to influence events - to "create" news, rather than report it. By promoting a certain event they hope to make enough people knee-jerk and their predictions of gloom and doom will be vindicated. It certainly becomes difficult to discern where the prediction and the result are separated, and given that most markets are traded by knee-jerk traders, the real picture actually fades into the background.

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  • 4 months later...

Why is this The Chart of Doom? It’s fairly obvious that private credit is contracting in Japan and the Eurozone and stagnant in the U.K.

As for the U.S.: after trillions of dollars in bank bailouts and additional liquidity, and $8 trillion in deficit spending, private credit in the U.S. managed a paltry $1.5 trillion increase in the seven years since the 2008 financial meltdown.

Compare this to the strong growth from the mid-1990s up to 2008.

This chart makes it clear that the sole prop under the global “recovery” since 2008-09 has been private credit growth in China. From $4 trillion to over $21 trillion in seven years–no wonder bubbles have been inflated globally.

Combine this expansion of private credit in China with the expansion of local government and other state-sector debt (state-owned enterprises, SOEs, etc.) and you have the makings of a global bubble machine.

In other words, the faltering global “recovery” and all the tenuous asset bubbles around the world both depend on a continued hyper-velocity rocket rise in China’s private credit. What are the odds of this happening? Aren’t the signs that this rocket ship has burned its available fuel abundant?

Three out of the five major economies are already experiencing stagnant or negative private credit growth. Three down, two to go. Helicopter money–government issued “free money” to households–is no replacement for private credit expansion.

Once private credit rolls over in China and the U.S., the global recession will start its rapid slide down the Seneca Cliff: The Global Economy Could Fall Farther and Faster Than Pundits Expect.

post-6925-0-38027300-1455199561_thumb.pn

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Interesting article in the NYT on the outflow of cash (and yes cash) from China.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/14/business/dealbook/chinese-start-to-lose-confidence-in-their-currency.html?ref=international&_r=1

Its not that long since the doom-misters on TVF where declaring the death of the dollar and world conquest by the Yuan as it becomes the next global currency.

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$70 trillion

the-us-government-has-about-70-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-liabilities

http://qz.com/111454/the-us-government-has-about-70-trillion-in-off-balance-sheet-liabilities/

an excellent paper pointing out that >90% of this trillions consist of guarantees and PVs as well as NPVs extrapolated and based on potential future liabilities.

if rice farmers and goldlovers would concentrate more on tangible facts instead of gloom&doom slogans which fit their agenda they'd arrive at this...

...summary: not w00t.gif but coffee1.gif

This forward doom scenario definition of risk is what was behind the destruction of work place pensions in the UK.

Viability tests enacted by Gordon Brown that measured a pension fund's viability by its ability to pay the total forward commitment to pensions today, rather then over the next 50 or 60 years which is the actual liability of a pension fund.

It was also very much part of the collapse (all but of government buy-in) of British banks during the financial crisis. Some bright spark identified home mortgages as a worrisome debt to the banks and postulated in their 'risk assessment' that all homeowners might suddenly stop paying their monthly dues to the bank. - The risk assessment came up with the not too surprising conclusion that the banks could not sustain such a loss and hence their debt ratios are far too high.

What actually happened was, even during the recession, homeowners prioritised payment of their mortgages and house prices continued to rise.

The risk assessment in both these cases failed to grasp the fundamental structure and behaviour of the financial services they were assessing.

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  • 1 month later...

ATTENTION PRESIDENT OBAMA: ONE THIRD OF U.S. HOUSEHOLDS CAN NO LONGER AFFORD FOOD, RENT AND TRANSPORTATION

Median household income grew by only 1.5 percent, while median expenditures increased by about 11 percentohmy.png

While the Fed has long been focusing on the revenue part of the household income statement (which unfortunately has not been rising nearly fast enough to stimulate benign inflation in the form of nominal wages rising at the Fed’s preferred clip of 3.5% or higher), one largely ignored aspect of said balance sheet has been the expense side: after all, for any money to be left over and saved, income has to surpass expenses. However, according to a striking new Pew study while household spending has returned to pre-recession levels (the average household spent $36,800 in 2014) incomes have not.

Specifically, while the median income had fallen by 13% from 2004 levels over the next decade, expenditures had increased by nearly 14%. But nobody was more impacted than the one-third of households which the study defines as “low-income.” Pew finds that while all households had less slack in their budgets in 2014 than in 2004, lower-income households went into the red by over $2,300.

In other words, approximately one third of American households were no longer able to cover the core necessities – food, housing and transportation – with average income.

http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2016/03/household-expenditures-and-income

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