Chang_paarp Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Some of the replies in that thread makes me think of:Bitter Expat Predicts Thai Economic Collapse for 10th Straight Year Non-Thai speaking bar owner “absolutely certain” that this time he’s right about everything YASOTHON – Long-time Thailand resident and chronic pessimist Robert Arnold celebrated his 10th consecutive year of portending the imminent doom of the country with a long, dissembling rant to no one in particular on Sunday night at his Yasothon bar. The 56-year old expatriate and owner of multiple failed small business ventures spent 45 minutes telling seven different uninterested people his various conclusions encompassing themes such as “This whole place is falling apart,” “These people have no clue how to run a country,” and “I should write a fuc_king book.” For the 482nd consecutive time he concluded that the nation was destined for complete economic ruin as a direct result of its citizens not heeding his freely dispensed and infallible advice. Arnold, whose own entrepreneurial history includes three bankruptcies and a disastrous foray into the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 2001, has plenty of advice for the Kingdom’s financial captains. “The taxes are way too high,” he insists, despite having avoided paying 40% of his legal obligation through the clumsy laundering and under-reporting of his own meager profits. “They make it impossible to run a business with all their dumb rules and regulations.” Arnold also criticizes the government for having allowing the baht to appreciate in 2007, which severely devalued his cash reserve of US$15,000 which he bought with baht in 2005 at the exchange rate of 41.5/1, citing at the time “next year’s collapse of this worthless currency” and “the rock-solid safety of the almighty dollar.” Sunday’s tirade, which was alternatively directed towards two unresponsive Israeli backpackers at the bar, Arnold’s third wife Pun, a newly recruited non-English speaking bar waitress named Nong, and an unconscious Vietnam War veteran whose name could not be verified at press time, marks exactly ten entire years in which Arnold has been offering his sage observations to an unappreciative public, including 539 letters to the Bangkok Post, 129 of which have been published. Having previously blamed society’s ills on corrupt politicians, clueless bureaucrats, inferior Western culture, inferior Eastern culture, the IMF, Warren Buffett, liberal media bias, rabid soi dogs, Islamist fascism, Thaksin Shinawatra, and all Caucasian women, Arnold is proud of his role as a watchdog and seer. <<Snip>> Not the Nation This article has got to be a set-up! You do not get that number of falangs in one place in Yasso at one time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man River Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Given that Thaiand is running both a current account deficit and has a negative trade balance, I don't see how the confluence of the measures recommended above could work.- if they sell their foreign exchange reserves for baht, that makes the baht stronger, and a weaker, devalued baht is necessary to prop up exporters, which is the sector at present that is most endangered. So I think borrowing is fine in the circumstances if they want to, say, build some infrastructure (though there will be a time lag before it has any meaningful effect). They have the wherewithal to repay later. Given consumer and investment spending is tanking, infrastructural spending is paramount, but you are of course right that there is a large time lag involved. However, there really is no other way as spending in other countries is also tanking (i.e. demand for many of Thailand's exports is on the decline). Simply put, Thailand is not going to be able to export their way out of this global, economic mess. Right now, unless the THB gets so out of whack vis a vis other ag related exporting countries, devaluing the THB makes no sense. At least a relatively strong THB will lower the cost of their infrastructural projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man River Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 Is there information available as to which currency they will be borrowing in? I hope it's Baht this time. Hi, I read on MSN that they were going to the World bank, to ask for 2 Billion US Dollars. jb1 The currency borrowed will not be an issue. They can swap all or any portion of it into THB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briggsy Posted February 2, 2009 Share Posted February 2, 2009 On the news, some civil servants have not had their salaries paid. Government promises they will be paid next week. Is this related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koo82 Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Democrat Party always borrows money when they're government. They haven't shown they know how to make money. They only know to talk nicely in front of public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henryalleman Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 On the news, some civil servants have not had their salaries paid. Government promises they will be paid next week. Is this related? I have family who are civil servants, they get the salary of january on time also their bonus wa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henryalleman Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 On the news, some civil servants have not had their salaries paid. Government promises they will be paid next week. Is this related? I have family who are civil servants, they get the salary of january on time also their bonus wa have family who are civil servants, they get the salary of january on time also their bonus was paid on time, si I think this story is an hoax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverdie Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Some of the replies in that thread makes me think of:Bitter Expat Predicts Thai Economic Collapse for 10th Straight Year Non-Thai speaking bar owner “absolutely certain” that this time he’s right about everything YASOTHON – Long-time Thailand resident and chronic pessimist Robert Arnold celebrated his 10th consecutive year of portending the imminent doom of the country with a long, dissembling rant to no one in particular on Sunday night at his Yasothon bar. The 56-year old expatriate and owner of multiple failed small business ventures spent 45 minutes telling seven different uninterested people his various conclusions encompassing themes such as “This whole place is falling apart,” “These people have no clue how to run a country,” and “I should write a fuc_king book.” For the 482nd consecutive time he concluded that the nation was destined for complete economic ruin as a direct result of its citizens not heeding his freely dispensed and infallible advice. Arnold, whose own entrepreneurial history includes three bankruptcies and a disastrous foray into the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 2001, has plenty of advice for the Kingdom’s financial captains. “The taxes are way too high,” he insists, despite having avoided paying 40% of his legal obligation through the clumsy laundering and under-reporting of his own meager profits. “They make it impossible to run a business with all their dumb rules and regulations.” Arnold also criticizes the government for having allowing the baht to appreciate in 2007, which severely devalued his cash reserve of US$15,000 which he bought with baht in 2005 at the exchange rate of 41.5/1, citing at the time “next year’s collapse of this worthless currency” and “the rock-solid safety of the almighty dollar.” Sunday’s tirade, which was alternatively directed towards two unresponsive Israeli backpackers at the bar, Arnold’s third wife Pun, a newly recruited non-English speaking bar waitress named Nong, and an unconscious Vietnam War veteran whose name could not be verified at press time, marks exactly ten entire years in which Arnold has been offering his sage observations to an unappreciative public, including 539 letters to the Bangkok Post, 129 of which have been published. Having previously blamed society’s ills on corrupt politicians, clueless bureaucrats, inferior Western culture, inferior Eastern culture, the IMF, Warren Buffett, liberal media bias, rabid soi dogs, Islamist fascism, Thaksin Shinawatra, and all Caucasian women, Arnold is proud of his role as a watchdog and seer. <<Snip>> Not the Nation This article has got to be a set-up! You do not get that number of falangs in one place in Yasso at one time! Hey CP, Surely thats not the only reason why you identified this to be a fruad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricardo Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 They are sitting on over 100 billion USD by all accounts in reserves, not counting baht reserves as well. The Revenue dept must also have quite a treasure trove collected over the past 2 or more years with unstable govenrnments and little spending on infrastructure or other programs. Seems a better idea to slowly devalue the baht as the above poster mentions... Check your sources. -there is no "treasury"... for one very good reason : the thai gvt (Junta, Samak, Somchai and now Abhisit) is running budget deficit since several years. Gifts for friends, inane economic policies and subsidies cost a lot. Your several-year time-span would surely include the two previous governments, under TRT/Thaksin as well, which you forgot to put on the list. Gifts for friends & supporters or subsidies (fuel-prices before the 2005-election ?) or tax-breaks for businesses owned by the PM (Thai Air Asia ?), are indeed a waste of scarce resources. It's documented. -furthermore, tax collections are decreasing (VAT, but also corporate taxes, personal income etc.) http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/31...ll-in-december/ Perhaps the decline in tax collections might have been less, and he might still have been in power, had Thaksin offered to share his good-fortune & pay a little tax on his sale of Shin Corp to Temasek ? -and the reserves of the Bank Of Thailand are not made to pay the day to day expenses of the government... No, they are to be used for holding the Baht strong, causing the Thai factory-workers to lose their jobs & farmers to get paid less for the rice-exports, regardless of what is best for the Thai economy during a global crisis, erm ... erm ... my comments in red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammered Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Democrat Party always borrows money when they're government. They haven't shown they know how to make money. They only know to talk nicely in front of public. I think this has been said before, but it is not the job of government to make money. They raise money by levying taxes, issuing bonds, other borrowing which may be overseas. Deficit budgetting is nothing new and this current government are still paying for some of the deficit spending of previous governments including Thaksin. The current government are basically not doing anything different form what every government in the world is doing right now. At this juncture government anywhere is the only body that can alleviate the inevitable effects fo the current economic downturn. You could stick Thaksin or his own son in command tormorrow and they would being doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plus Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 She probably meant that Dems don't know better ways of raising funds than Thaksin, and she is probably right. Thaksin, for example, sold 100bil Vayupak bonds instead of going to the banks. I won't be surprised that interest payments on those are higher than current bank rates, but it wasn't percieved as borrowing. Politically Dems are indebted to bankers, they would be discouraged to ask for funds anywhere else. Sad reality, just like increase in military budget - all those coups and coalitions need to be paid for, that's the price for keeping Thaksin at bay. On the other hand, Democrats somehow believe in handouts and populist policies, but that's not what lifted Thailand when Thaksin ran the country, it was huge, mammoth, 600 billion bail out of big business. When corporations suddenly showed profits, stock market went up up and away, bank interest rates went down as companies raised money on SET instead, and people could afford buying houses and cars and everything started buzzing. This trick won't work this time - companies are not burdened with old loans anymore, there's no room for them to grow during current global crisis. I doubt grass roots spending can turn the situation around on its own, it's a question of surviving through the worst period relatively unscathed, same as Dems did for the country in 97-99 when they were presented with 17 billion dollar debt negotiated by Thaksin's personal banker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotbeve Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Thailand to borrow Bt270 billion to boost economy-- Hope the politicians would keep their hands clean if Thailand gets the loan.... Picture a dog, alone in a butchers shop.... That should be about right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enigma Posted February 8, 2009 Share Posted February 8, 2009 Given that Thaiand is running both a current account deficit and has a negative trade balance, I don't see how the confluence of the measures recommended above could work.- if they sell their foreign exchange reserves for baht, that makes the baht stronger, and a weaker, devalued baht is necessary to prop up exporters, which is the sector at present that is most endangered. So I think borrowing is fine in the circumstances if they want to, say, build some infrastructure (though there will be a time lag before it has any meaningful effect). They have the wherewithal to repay later. Given consumer and investment spending is tanking, infrastructural spending is paramount, but you are of course right that there is a large time lag involved. However, there really is no other way as spending in other countries is also tanking (i.e. demand for many of Thailand's exports is on the decline). Simply put, Thailand is not going to be able to export their way out of this global, economic mess. Right now, unless the THB gets so out of whack vis a vis other ag related exporting countries, devaluing the THB makes no sense. At least a relatively strong THB will lower the cost of their infrastructural projects. This is the logical argument and a likely explanation of why B of T holds the baht at existing levels, but will B of T have the resolve to continue doing so, as the Thai economy weakens and unemployment rises, which seems inevitable in the global meltdown? The need for the new government to appear decisive and avoid any further civil unrest may lead them to try to influence the Bank's thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 Thailand creating new projects to generate up to two million jobs BERLIN, May 12 (TNA) – Thailand’s government, in office for less than five months, aims to initiate five new infrastructure projects to generate 1.6 to 2 million new jobs during the next three to four years, Deputy Prime Minister Korbsak Sabhavasu said here Tuesday. Mr. Korbsak told journalists that “no new projects were created by previous governments in the past six-seven years” and if money from the present government’s second round of economic stimulus campaign is spent on beneficial projects it could boost the country’s competitiveness. These projects include improved transportation routes, an impressive education system and doubling the number of water sources to ultimately help boost farming areas, he said. The government is planning an executive decree allowing it to borrow Bt400 billion for urgent projects and another Bt400 billion via a bill to be approved by Parliament. Last Wednesday, the Cabinet gave the green light to borrow Bt800 billion to invest in the second round of the government’s economic stimulus campaign which requires a total investment of Bt1.43 trillion. The three-year investment extends through 2012. The Bt800 billion will be borrowed from financial institutions in Thailand and will be invested mainly in small-scale projects, said Mr. Korbsak. In an attempt to reduce public anxiety, Mr. Korbsak said the planned total investment of Bt1.43 trillion accounts about 6 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product while liquidity in the system is sufficiently high at Bt1.5 trillion. Although the planned borrowing would push up the public debt 60 per cent, he said it would become lower within two years. A working committee in which outsiders will also be invited to join is expected to be set up to monitor investment on projects under the second round of the economic stimulus campaign to create transparency, Mr. Korbsak said, adding that he would discuss with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva regarding the idea of establishing the committee. (TNA) -- TNA 12.05.2009 article here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 TRANSPORT Road projects hit a pothole as govt tightens spending New highway schemes put on indefinite hold By: AMORNRAT MAHITTHIROOK, Bangkok Post Published: 12/05/2009 Newspaper section: News No new highways will be built in the coming fiscal year after the government slashed the budget of the Highways Department. Supoj Saplom, the department director general, yesterday said the government had cut the department's proposed annual budget from 40.5 billion baht to 26.7 billion baht. This would be just enough to maintain existing highways and complete those projects already started. Planned new highways to improve the national road network and promote tourism, new interchanges and the expansion of existing highways from two to four lanes would all have to be delayed. ... continue -- Bangkok Post 12.05.2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Parliament to review govt's foreign loan plan today BANGKOK, 14 May 2009 (NNT) - The joint-parliamentary session on Thursday is set to review a framework on the foreign loan borrowing plan and the government's mega-projects. The foreign loan borrowing plan has been proposed by the Cabinet in line with the government's 2009 foreign debt plan. The two Houses will also today review mega-projects including the second-phase construction of four-lane highways, the construction of a bridge across Chao Phraya River and the eighth waterworks development project. The three projects have a combined investment of more than 311 million USD. Another issues to be deliberated on today include trade liberalization and economic cooperation under the ASEAN framework. -- NNT 14 May 2009 article here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Thai Confidence Falls to Seven-Year Low on Protests By Suttinee Yuvejwattana May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in more than seven years last month, when protests in the capital Bangkok left two people dead. The index dropped to 65.1 from 66 in March, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said today in Bangkok. That’s its lowest reading since December 2001. The gauge is tracking a nationwide survey of 2,242 respondents. An emergency decree was imposed in Bangkok for 13 days last month to quell riots after anti-government protesters forced the cancellation of a regional leaders’ summit. Thailand is poised for its first annual economic contraction in 11 years amid the political conflict and global recession, which has eroded demand for exports. “People are concerned about political instability and worsening economic conditions,” Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist at the university, said at a press briefing today. “Confidence is still on the down-trend and we probably won’t see a pickup until the third quarter.” Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has pledged to call elections once stability is restored in the nation of 66 million people. The protesters say Abhisit’s rule is illegitimate because he came to office after a court dissolved the former ruling party. Power Shifts Power in Thailand has shifted between parties allied to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his opponents since the 2006 coup that ousted him, hurting successive governments’ ability to implement spending plans. Abhisit’s government on May 6 unveiled a four-year 1.4- trillion baht ($40.6 billion) investment plan, involving transportation, water distribution, energy, health and education projects to help create jobs and spur the economy. That’s in addition to an earlier 116.7 billion-baht stimulus package of public works, training programs, cash handouts and tax breaks. The central bank, which last month cut its benchmark interest rate to a more than four-year low of 1.25 percent, “potentially” has room to cut interest rates further, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said last week. The economy may have contracted as much as 6 percent in the first quarter, Korn said May 7. For the year, he forecasts gross domestic product may shrink as much as 3.5 percent. The government predicts the number of jobless may double this year. --14.05.2009 article here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 "fisticuffs" .................... Confrontation between Puea Thai and Democrat MPs in parliament today BANGKOK, 14 May 2009 (NNT) - Members of the parliament were close to resorting to fisticuffs during a parliamentary meeting today, resulting in the House Speaker calling for a brief recess of the meeting. Press correspondents report that as House Speaker Chai Chidchob was calling for a vote on Southeast Asian cooperation, Puea Thai party MP from Nong Khai province Somkid Panthaisong voiced a protest over the meeting's proceedings. Mr. Somkid then began walking through the seating aisles to investigate whether any MPs were voting in place of their absent colleagues. This act caused Democrat MP from Phetchaburi province Apichart Supapang to become incensed and almost resulted in a fight between the two MPs. The parliamentary meeting has now resumed with no talks of the recent clash, while some Puea Thai MPs are currently conducting a press conference on the incident. -- NNT 14 May 2009 article here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Clash over quorum at Parliament By The Nation Published on May 15, 2009 Democrat MPs clashed with an opposition Pheu Thai MP yesterday before a vote in a joint parliamentary session. After House Speaker Chai Chidchob called a quorum, Pheu Thai MP Somkid Bantaisong voiced doubt over whether Democrat MPs were properly registered. He alleged that government MPs might use others' ID cards to register. Somkid then asked to walk around in order to inspect the Democrat MPs. As soon as Somkid walked over, Democrat MPs called Somkid to inspect his registration and there was a quarrel between them. Suddenly, Democrat MP Pramual Aimpia tried to punch and kick Somkid, but missed him as many MPs came in to stop any fight. After all MPs got back to their seats, Pramual shouted "You, come, I'm not afraid of you!" The shouting prompted Chai to call for peace again. The quorum showed 317 MPs attended the session. However, the vote result showed only 307 MPs attended the session. Later, Pheu Thai MPs Somkid and Sunai Junllapong-sathorn held a press conference to condemn Democrat MPs for the clash. Sunai claimed the problem would not have happened if Chai had not let some MPs use others' ID to register. Later at a Democrat Party press conference, Democrat MP Kampon Supapang said that Somkid began the fight. Another Democrat MP Soravuth Neangjumnong said he smelled alcohol on Somkid. -- The Nation May 15, 2009 article here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HagenvonTronje Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRCAhHkZTK8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oberkommando Posted May 14, 2009 Share Posted May 14, 2009 Sad reality, just like increase in military budget - all those coups and coalitions need to be paid for, that's the price for keeping Thaksin at bay. So why aren't they being paid with the estimated $38 Billion fortune of those that ordered them? I doubt grass roots spending can turn the situation around on its own, it's a question of surviving through the worst period relatively unscathed, same as Dems did for the country in 97-99 when they were presented with 17 billion dollar debt negotiated by Thaksin's personal banker. Bitter medicine and the people suffered while certain institutions got fat off profits. The CPB being a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaleBlue Posted May 15, 2009 Share Posted May 15, 2009 So sad for the next generation of Thais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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