Exodus: Expatriates Leaving Chiang Mai And Environs

[Mapguy]

Economic distress must certainly have hit just about everyone in the expatriate community. If it isn't the collapsing investment portfolio and the threat of lost retirement benefits, it might be the brutal change in some currency exchange rates of recent months. Sometimes it is both!

Some people are hunkering down; others are shipping out (or being shipped out by their companies). But it is very hard to get an overall view about what's going on. So, what do you know and what do you hear? I mean to include all expatriates in the discussion and the discussion to be about all expatriates, not just the Anglo- or Eurocentric. And I don't mean to include here discussion of the illegal Burmese worker problem, which is an issue of its own.

I'll start it off:

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

I have heard of repatriation of various managers of enterprises in the industrial estates south of town. Anyone have any sense of the extent?

One hears of failing businesses. True? Are the owners still around?

[KhunLing]

Economic distress must certainly have hit just about everyone in the expatriate community. If it isn't the collapsing investment portfolio and the threat of lost retirement benefits, it might be the brutal change in some currency exchange rates of recent months. Sometimes it is both!

Some people are hunkering down; others are shipping out (or being shipped out by their companies). But it is very hard to get an overall view about what's going on. So, what do you know and what do you hear? I mean to include all expatriates in the discussion and the discussion to be about all expatriates, not just the Anglo- or Eurocentric. And I don't mean to include here discussion of the illegal Burmese worker problem, which is an issue of its own.

I'll start it off:

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

I have heard of repatriation of various managers of enterprises in the industrial estates south of town. Anyone have any sense of the extent?

One hears of failing businesses. True? Are the owners still around?

I am not in Thailand at the moment. I'll be back very soon though. Last year I got up to 31 baht for 1 Australian $.

Right now, it's 22.94 or something. That's a huge drop...and it must be very difficult for people reliant on $ from abroad.

I have been teaching in Australia and I know first hand that the overseas student market from Korea is way down. Korea is being hit very hard and the flow on from that will be much clearer in the next 12 months.

[Thakkar]

Korea has been especially badly hit in this downturn and several Korean students at my children's school will be continuing their studies in Korea at the end of this school year as a result. I was told that as many as 20 students will not be returning next term but I don't know that for a fact. What we can't know is how many new students will *not* be coming as a result of the crisis.

On the other hand, (using education and Korea as an example) International schools in Korea are a lot more expensive than here and it's possible some families may be forced to take their kids out of schools there and send them here.

Similarly, people planning a retirement in, say, Phuket or Bali may opt for cheaper Chiangmai.

I'd be interested to hear of some actual decisions made one way or the other.

[KhunLing]

I don't know that Chiang Mai is cheaper to be honest mate.

Costs wise, there's not that much difference to Bangkok in many regards.

I'd not like to be operating a business reliant on tourist $ at the moment as trips abroad are the first thing people disregard in these times.

Chiang Mai has always been the 'extra' option also. I.e. people go to Bangkok and then to see a beach...Chiang Mai is always the extra three days they throw on while they're in the mood and spending. That kind of tourist will drop off considerably.

Purely personally, I'd be happy if tourists dropped off as I kind of like things quite and relaxed. However, I realise that a lot of people's livelihoods depend on tourist $.

It's going to be a difficult few years IMO.

[samuibeachcomber]

Economic distress must certainly have hit just about everyone in the expatriate community. If it isn't the collapsing investment portfolio and the threat of lost retirement benefits, it might be the brutal change in some currency exchange rates of recent months. Sometimes it is both!

Some people are hunkering down; others are shipping out (or being shipped out by their companies). But it is very hard to get an overall view about what's going on. So, what do you know and what do you hear? I mean to include all expatriates in the discussion and the discussion to be about all expatriates, not just the Anglo- or Eurocentric. And I don't mean to include here discussion of the illegal Burmese worker problem, which is an issue of its own.

I'll start it off:

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

I have heard of repatriation of various managers of enterprises in the industrial estates south of town. Anyone have any sense of the extent?

One hears of failing businesses. True? Are the owners still around?

I am not in Thailand at the moment. I'll be back very soon though. Last year I got up to 31 baht for 1 Australian $.

Right now, it's 22.94 or something. That's a huge drop...and it must be very difficult for people reliant on $ from abroad.

I have been teaching in Australia and I know first hand that the overseas student market from Korea is way down. Korea is being hit very hard and the flow on from that will be much clearer in the next 12 months.

your telling me its hard and it makes thailand seem more expensive than it is,same for UK expats,exchange rate down,interest rates on savings really low too does n't help.you'll notice a big difference this time you visit.best time is now to have a job.

[patklang]

The poor currency exchange will hit me in 5-6 months as my thai baht was 69.9 to the gbp.If the baht continues to be about 50 then i will lose 200,000 baht on my gbp.This will make me tighten my belt and reduce my weekly spending accordingly.

No doubt i will survive but taking a hit like that is no joke,as i am spending an extra 2,500 baht a week with cost increases

[samuibeachcomber]

The poor currency exchange will hit me in 5-6 months as my thai baht was 69.9 to the gbp.If the baht continues to be about 50 then i will lose 200,000 baht on my gbp.This will make me tighten my belt and reduce my weekly spending accordingly.

No doubt i will survive but taking a hit like that is no joke,as i am spending an extra 2,500 baht a week with cost increases

am sure everyone's affected to some degree,apart from the lose when transfering pounds and aussie dollars,everything you purchase here seems and is more expensive.

[PeaceBlondie]

Korean students way down, for sure. I knew one family that switched both their kids from APIS to Varee, and that was middle of last year.

How many of us know more than 154 expats? Several that I know are well settled, even on UK pensions. I have a new Kiwi across the road, just bought a big house. I cannot offhand think of anybody in the writer's group who left because of finances...oh,, maybe one, last year, when the Kiwi and Oz dollars tanked. The Slovenian, Japanese, French, Belgian acquaintances are still here. My straight and gay friends with Thai partners are all settled in for the duration. Meadish is still a Chiang Mai sweetball, rasseru and his lovely wife; UG; Chas and Rachel; all still here. And Al.

[el jefe]

What I don't understand is where are these expats going to go if they can't afford to live in CM? I understand Korean students not coming to CM and expats who lose their jobs here, leaving for "home".

But if the Australian dollar and GBP have collapsed against the US dollar (not really against the baht), and Aussies and Brits can't afford to live here, or if a retiree has lost his life savings because of the stock market, how are they going to afford to live in the west if they can't afford to live here? Unless they're going to move in with their kids, they're stuck here. I'd certainly rather be poor here than poor in the west.

[Greenside]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

[Ulysses G.]

I don't know that Chiang Mai is cheaper to be honest mate.

Costs wise, there's not that much difference to Bangkok in many regards.

It seems to me that rent for a comfortable place is much cheaper in Chiang Mai and it is much easier to find cheap Thai restaurants that are not just stalls on the street. Also, one could easily get by without air-con in Chiang Mai if you live in a comfortable building, where it would be almost a must have in Bangkok.

The other thing is that there are so many more tempting foods and things to do and buy in Bangkok tempting one all the time.

[Bill97]

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

"Have lost" since last August or since when ? or will be loosing at the end of the school year?

What schools and approximately what numbers of students for each?

[samuibeachcomber]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

yep those are the reasons.

[Mapguy]

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

"Have lost" since last August or since when ? or will be loosing at the end of the school year?

What schools and approximately what numbers of students for each?

APIS, Lanna, PTIS, and NIS for four. Mid-year. Call them for the latest numbers.

[Bill97]

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

"Have lost" since last August or since when ? or will be loosing at the end of the school year?

What schools and approximately what numbers of students for each?

APIS, Lanna, PTIS, and NIS for four. Mid-year. Call them for the latest numbers.

What numbers for each school did you get at mid-year?

[Jungian]

My family, friends (yes I have friends!) and former coworkers told me DO NOT LEAVE THAILAND! My father told me unemployment in the Lehigh Valley (Allentown/Philadelphia) is at an all time high and the crime rate is up 130%. So, needless to say I'm sticking it out with my Thai salary (which isn't too bad).

[BigSnake]

Those old Red Shirts are not helping matters either.

[Ulysses G.]

Did they take over the airport too?

[john b good]

For me it hasn't affected me too much as I had a bit of dosh transferred in when the rate was good.

I can sit this crisis out for a few years if push comes to shove

I can sympathise with those though who are getting a monthly injection from a pension or the like.

[el jefe]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

yep those are the reasons.

Sorry. I was specifically talking about retirees and didn't realize how many of them are now supporting school-age children.

I also didn't realize that Aussies and Brits could not collect their Social Security payment if they lived in Thailand. All Americans can collect their Social Security while here in Thailand. Medical insurance is much cheaper here and certainly the care received here is better than Medicare in the US.

I also doubt that any Thai spouses will get good jobs in America with the current state of the economy. Is it better in Australia and the UK?

And if anyone has free and clear property in the UK, wouldn't they be better off selling it and living off the proceeds here in CM?

I still don't understand -- if you have money life is better in Thailand, but if you're broke life is better in the UK or Australia. To me. that's backwards.

Edited March 7, 2009 by el jefe

[KhunLing]

Australians can collect the pension if they live abroad.

I am in my 30's, but I know people who are older than me who get it and live abroad.

I don't know about Brits.

[Thaihog]

UK retirees can collect their pensions in Thailand, the only problem is that the pension is not index-linked.

[Greenside]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

yep those are the reasons.

Sorry. I was specifically talking about retirees and didn't realize how many of them are now supporting school-age children.

I also didn't realize that Aussies and Brits could not collect their Social Security payment if they lived in Thailand. All Americans can collect their Social Security while here in Thailand. Medical insurance is much cheaper here and certainly the care received here is better than Medicare in the US.

I also doubt that any Thai spouses will get good jobs in America with the current state of the economy. Is it better in Australia and the UK?

And if anyone has free and clear property in the UK, wouldn't they be better off selling it and living off the proceeds here in CM?

I still don't understand -- if you have money life is better in Thailand, but if you're broke life is better in the UK or Australia. To me. that's backwards.

Judging by the farangs who collect kids from my stepson's school, I'd say there are a fair number of "retired" people who have chosen to start or take on the responsibility of a new family here and, although you can collect a "frozen" pension from the date you decide to activate it, the safety net that prevents folks starving in the street is (rightly) reserved for those living in their native country.

Whether selling one's assets and living off the capital (there being no return on savings available here - or anywhere else at the moment) is sensible or not depends on how you feel about providing for your dependants and your current age. Suppose you raise say 15m baht by selling your house at home - you're likely to be on the skids in a dozen or so years hence if you buy a modest place to live here and lead a conservative family life. How much will you have to have in the bank to qualify for a retirement extension in five years, let alone fifteen?

If you're 75 now with no responsibilities maybe that sounds OK, but I'd lose sleep with that kind of a clock ticking.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

yep those are the reasons.

Sorry. I was specifically talking about retirees and didn't realize how many of them are now supporting school-age children.

I also didn't realize that Aussies and Brits could not collect their Social Security payment if they lived in Thailand. All Americans can collect their Social Security while here in Thailand. Medical insurance is much cheaper here and certainly the care received here is better than Medicare in the US.

I also doubt that any Thai spouses will get good jobs in America with the current state of the economy. Is it better in Australia and the UK?

And if anyone has free and clear property in the UK, wouldn't they be better off selling it and living off the proceeds here in CM?

I still don't understand -- if you have money life is better in Thailand, but if you're broke life is better in the UK or Australia. To me. that's backwards.

Judging by the farangs who collect kids from my stepson's school, I'd say there are a fair number of "retired" people who have chosen to start or take on the responsibility of a new family here and, although you can collect a "frozen" pension from the date you decide to activate it, the safety net that prevents folks starving in the street is (rightly) reserved for those living in their native country.

Whether selling one's assets and living off the capital (there being no return on savings available here - or anywhere else at the moment) is sensible or not depends on how you feel about providing for your dependants and your current age. Suppose you raise say 15m baht by selling your house at home - you're likely to be on the skids in a dozen or so years hence if you buy a modest place to live here and lead a conservative family life. How much will you have to have in the bank to qualify for a retirement extension in five years, let alone fifteen?

If you're 75 now with no responsibilities maybe that sounds OK, but I'd lose sleep with that kind of a clock ticking.

My advice to anyone who may have 15m is get yourself some condos with part of the money and live off the income without worrying about rates etc. Dont try and just live off it and see it dwindle - just my two cents worth

[el jefe]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

yep those are the reasons.

Sorry. I was specifically talking about retirees and didn't realize how many of them are now supporting school-age children.

I also didn't realize that Aussies and Brits could not collect their Social Security payment if they lived in Thailand. All Americans can collect their Social Security while here in Thailand. Medical insurance is much cheaper here and certainly the care received here is better than Medicare in the US.

I also doubt that any Thai spouses will get good jobs in America with the current state of the economy. Is it better in Australia and the UK?

And if anyone has free and clear property in the UK, wouldn't they be better off selling it and living off the proceeds here in CM?

I still don't understand -- if you have money life is better in Thailand, but if you're broke life is better in the UK or Australia. To me. that's backwards.

Judging by the farangs who collect kids from my stepson's school, I'd say there are a fair number of "retired" people who have chosen to start or take on the responsibility of a new family here and, although you can collect a "frozen" pension from the date you decide to activate it, the safety net that prevents folks starving in the street is (rightly) reserved for those living in their native country.

Whether selling one's assets and living off the capital (there being no return on savings available here - or anywhere else at the moment) is sensible or not depends on how you feel about providing for your dependants and your current age. Suppose you raise say 15m baht by selling your house at home - you're likely to be on the skids in a dozen or so years hence if you buy a modest place to live here and lead a conservative family life. How much will you have to have in the bank to qualify for a retirement extension in five years, let alone fifteen?

If you're 75 now with no responsibilities maybe that sounds OK, but I'd lose sleep with that kind of a clock ticking.

Thanks for the explanation of UK pensions, Greenside, but none of that would apply to an American. American pensions and American Social Security payments are not affected at all by where you live. They'll prevent you from living in the streets in Thailand too. Good thing too. Even if I lose 100% of my investments, I know I can live here comfortably on what I'll be able to collect in another decade.

As for selling property, I have to agree with ChiangMaiFun. If you can get 15m baht now, you should be able to get 12m baht for that property in a couple of years. You're making an assumption that real estate prices in the UK are going to provide a higher rate of return than any other investment. I'm making a very different assumption about real estate values in the west.

imho, one needs to provide for their children until they are old enough to provide for themselves (graduate from university?). If I leave them a house in the west, the first thing they're going to do is sell it.

[Mapguy]

Many interesting posts so far. I don't mean to limit the discussion, but, in addition to talking about various ways various expatriates get their money (private or governmental pensions, investments, whatever) which we know have tanked or are threatened, what about those who have really had to change regarding their lifestyles here, businesses or are shipping out?

Otherwise, has anyone here other than someone of English heritage posted anything?! How grossly parochial are TV posters?

[PeaceBlondie]

Mapguy, I mentioned that my friends from Belgium, Japan, Slovenia, Sweden and France remain here. I doubt that the Korean missionaries that I met have left. I still see German-speaking Mennonites at Miguel's.

I think we have not mentioned other heritages leaving, because we know none who are leaving

[chiangmaibruce]

My own informal gauge as to what is happening is via ongoing monitoring of the various classifieds web sites including CM Mail, Citylife, Thaivisa etc. I have certainly noticed some changes in the past 18 months including more and (much) cheaper rental properties being advertised, many clearing-out-the house sales, more instances of items being advertised week after week after week and the price eventually dropping (whether this be condos, businesses, cars, furniture, etc), and so on. All indicative of more going than coming, and also of people not buying so much stuff.

[neverdie]

My advice to anyone who may have 15m is get yourself some condos with part of the money and live off the income without worrying about rates etc. Dont try and just live off it and see it dwindle - just my two cents worth

Are you really giving advice to pump money into thai condos......I wouldnt do that, but you only put money into thai real estate that you can afford to lose, the market is flooded and always will be with condos and crap, YUK.

Theres better stuff to do with ur money & sure interest rates are bad at the moment, but that won't last forever either, one of the tricks with these types of investments is to lock in when its near the top.....the warning bells were ringing loudly for the aussies and the kiwis last June, July, thats when I moved a wad of cash here, you wont see those types of rates again for a very long time .

[Mapguy]

Mapguy, I mentioned that my friends from Belgium, Japan, Slovenia, Sweden and France remain here. I doubt that the Korean missionaries that I met have left. I still see German-speaking Mennonites at Miguel's.

I think we have not mentioned other heritages leaving, because we know none who are leaving

Well, that approaches the point I was trying to make. Looks like TV posters (limited as they are) generally go to the same pubs!

Edited March 8, 2009 by Mapguy