Exodus: Expatriates Leaving Chiang Mai And Environs

[Sao Jiang Mai]

Interesting thread. And while I lay no claim to any facts and figures, I do believe that I can lay some claim to knowing a huge number of expatriates and having been involved with the expat community here for thirty years. The expat numbers - in my opinion - have definitely increased since the early nineties, by a HUGE margin. There are 400 registered Swedes in the north of Thailand for instance. There must be many more, and that is just one nation (I know of at least a dozen Brazilians for instance - weird, I know!). The categories are also so numbered now with new subcultures and groups - the gay community, the hoteliers, the writers/artists/poets, bar and restaurant owners, etc etc. As far as I can see from the few hundreds of expats I keep in touch with and many more I loosely keep in touch with, there have certainly been a few who have returned home, recalled by their companies, but the 'higher end' (ie high spenders) seem to be on the increase. Look at the Doi Saket, and especially Mae Rim areas, there are tons of massive mansions being built. The condos while slowing down in sales this year, were also doing a roaring trade to expats last year. A friend of mine who has a dozen units says that they are all rented out and there is a waiting list. Yes there are some leaving, but I don't think it is a significant enough number when compared to those moving in and especially those who are just hunkering down to bear the storm. People are cutting back a bit more, but they will still support their favourite pubs, restaurants and businesses - hopefully mine! - (last night Le Crystal was nearly full, and popular haunts like Soho and the UNIrish are doing a roaring trade). Sorry to go on, but since I rely on my expat readership, it is a topic of great interest for me. I also feel that more and more expats are invested in this city. People are here to stay and they care how Chiang Mai is doing and they are participating more, case in point this forum. It is all a good thing.

[Mapguy]

I agree with StevieH that there are indeed more groups (without getting restrictive with categorization) than PeaceBlondie has suggested. Why don't you do a reader survey, SaoJiang Mai along with other CM publications? The results would indeed be interesting.

One additional group I want to suggest (which seems to be very heavily Korean) comprises those who come to Thailand primarily to get their children to learn English in the international and bilingual schools. Except in those cases in which the father is employed locally, for example, in an industrial estate, the mother is usually resident while the student studies. In the case of older children (secondary and university age), sometimes a guardian is appointed in country and the parents stay abroad. Some of the children are residents at APIS or Prem.

I also have a sense that the number of Japanese retirees is increasing here. Or, at least, has been doing so, as well as some Japanese seeming to open up a fair number of small service businesses. True?

Finally, I get the sense from the information on this thread that not many --- except the young unemployed and Koreans --- are bailing out, but that people are very much hunkering down. Nonetheless, it seems that Le Crystal must be serving a fair number of hedge fund managers and bank managers (on the run, I suppose!) who cashed in their bonuses!

[Sao Jiang Mai]

Just a quick resonse to the above. I am actually compiling a survey as we speak and if you wish to contribute I would be most grateful. Just go to http://www.chiangmainews.com/survey/ and you can even win some prizes for your participation. Anyway, hopeing to build up a good profile of expats (and of course get feedback about my business). By my estimates there are around 4000 Americans (2000 registered, a few consuls over the years told me that real numbers at AT LEAST double those registered), at least 2000 brits (only a handful are registered - 600), used to be 4000 Japanese at end of2008, dont know about now, 2000 Koreans, add it up and its a formiddable number. But this is north of Thailand, not just CM city. Our garden party alone had well over 650, mainly expats, on the day. You are such a diverse lot that that is why it seems there are so few.

[Mapguy]

Just a quick resonse to the above. I am actually compiling a survey as we speak and if you wish to contribute I would be most grateful. Just go to http://www.chiangmainews.com/survey/ and you can even win some prizes for your participation. Anyway, hopeing to build up a good profile of expats (and of course get feedback about my business). By my estimates there are around 4000 Americans (2000 registered, a few consuls over the years told me that real numbers at AT LEAST double those registered), at least 2000 brits (only a handful are registered - 600), used to be 4000 Japanese at end of2008, dont know about now, 2000 Koreans, add it up and its a formiddable number. But this is north of Thailand, not just CM city. Our garden party alone had well over 650, mainly expats, on the day. You are such a diverse lot that that is why it seems there are so few.

Egads! Really 4000 Japanese?! That's a lot of sushi shops and long lines on the golf links! However, I'd wager that your figures above represent only about half the total! No Europeans (Brits generally deny being such.) and no Aussies are mentioned! Why don't you interview Immigration?

Anyway, how would you break down the figures: full-time residents, and serious part-timer crowd (not "tourists) who winter here and summer wherever? The underlying assumption of the thread thus far has been to consider "long-term" residents, I think.

By the way, I suggest your polls should be anonymous. You now are requesting names and email addresses.

Edited March 11, 2009 by Mapguy

[Ruperts]

If you live within your means you don't ever have a monetary problem, it's when you want to live like the Elite on a Peasant's salary that you get into problems.

Amen to that. It was greed that caused these problems in the first place and it will be the greedy now that suffer.

Veering back on topic, we do need to differentiate between at least three kinds of expats

1. The young under-30 with little more than a sex partner, maybe teaching English

2. Over 30, settled in, working full time, a real life partner and maybe one to four kids

3. Retired, any kids are all adults and gone. You're over 60, with a partner already or destined to be your caretaker until you die

I'm in group 1 (I'll ignore the rather patronising 'little more than a sex partner' comment ) and comfortable. I don't know if I live like a Thai, but I do stay in a cheap (3000baht p/m) condo and usually eat at the cheaper end of the scale. I very rarely buy anything that I don't need that isn't a book or a beer, so really nothing has changed for me at all. I still wake up, look at the mountains and the blue sky and smile. Everything is still wonderful.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Interesting thread. And while I lay no claim to any facts and figures, I do believe that I can lay some claim to knowing a huge number of expatriates and having been involved with the expat community here for thirty years. The expat numbers - in my opinion - have definitely increased since the early nineties, by a HUGE margin. There are 400 registered Swedes in the north of Thailand for instance. There must be many more, and that is just one nation (I know of at least a dozen Brazilians for instance - weird, I know!). The categories are also so numbered now with new subcultures and groups - the gay community, the hoteliers, the writers/artists/poets, bar and restaurant owners, etc etc. As far as I can see from the few hundreds of expats I keep in touch with and many more I loosely keep in touch with, there have certainly been a few who have returned home, recalled by their companies, but the 'higher end' (ie high spenders) seem to be on the increase. Look at the Doi Saket, and especially Mae Rim areas, there are tons of massive mansions being built. The condos while slowing down in sales this year, were also doing a roaring trade to expats last year. A friend of mine who has a dozen units says that they are all rented out and there is a waiting list. Yes there are some leaving, but I don't think it is a significant enough number when compared to those moving in and especially those who are just hunkering down to bear the storm. People are cutting back a bit more, but they will still support their favourite pubs, restaurants and businesses - hopefully mine! - (last night Le Crystal was nearly full, and popular haunts like Soho and the UNIrish are doing a roaring trade). Sorry to go on, but since I rely on my expat readership, it is a topic of great interest for me. I also feel that more and more expats are invested in this city. People are here to stay and they care how Chiang Mai is doing and they are participating more, case in point this forum. It is all a good thing.

I totally support this... I have several condos and no problem renting out - within days - I see no downturn at the moment and condos are still selling and renting - crisis? what crisis?

[ChiangMaiFun]

Veering back on topic, we do need to differentiate between at least three kinds of expats

1. The young under-30 with little more than a sex partner, maybe teaching English

2. Over 30, settled in, working full time, a real life partner and maybe one to four kids

3. Retired, any kids are all adults and gone. You're over 60, with a partner already or destined to be your caretaker until you die

I am in group 3, but I know a few men over 50 with babies at home who fit between categories. And some working older teachers with much younger mates of either gender.

That group 3 is here to stay, since we have nothing better to go back home to. If you are from Europe-UK, the exchange rate is hurting, but hopefully you prepared for that. And the partner-caretaker soon becomes the biggest insurance policy of all.

Slightly more catagories than 3! but anyway.. I'm 50 and avoid much of the rate problems by owning some condos thereby getting some 'local' income - many expats do that.

[dashan]

The expat numbers - in my opinion - have definitely increased since the early nineties, by a HUGE margin. <snip>

I'm sure you would know. I was talking more about people who did things like start furniture or jewelry factories, or for that matter international schools, or large-scale operations in the Lamphun Industrial Estate.

There must be a lot more retirees today.

Much of my first rant had to do with Thailand's inability to sustain significant development.

[Mitker]

... I doubt that the Korean missionaries that I met have left. I still see German-speaking Mennonites at Miguel's...

For sure. A new ice age can hit Chiang Mai and they'll still be there. Korean or other, on their bikes or other. Such a resilient species

[Mitker]

Veering back on topic, we do need to differentiate between at least three kinds of expats

1. The young under-30 with little more than a sex partner, maybe teaching English

2. Over 30, settled in, working full time, a real life partner and maybe one to four kids

3. Retired, any kids are all adults and gone. You're over 60, with a partner already or destined to be your caretaker until you die

And the partner-caretaker soon becomes the biggest insurance policy of all.

I'm a sub category of type 2 expat. I have my company and the economic situation is a concern since we are export-oriented and everything is on a hold in EU.

My Thai partner is not much younger than me so that in the future, I could as well become his caretaker Life will tell. No kids and none planned except if science makes miracles.

[Mitker]

Also, one could easily get by without air-con in Chiang Mai if you live in a comfortable building, where it would be almost a must have in Bangkok.

What kind of comfortable building in CM would not require aircon? Can you identify some of these buildings? Interested for our eventual move to CM.

A few points:

- good insulation of the roof (most houses lack this, even if inexpensive - basic design mistake)

- natural ventilation under the roof (increases the efficiency of the former; same remark as above)

- trees blocking direct sun rays avoid walls to be hit

- rooms oriented west are hotter; avoid them as living or sleeping room

- most of the year nights are cool in CM; let the house cool down by allowing the air inside at night (well not in this smog period...) and close it by day

- air circulation from fans corresponds (in terms of feeling) to a 5-10 degrees drop

The house I rent misses the 2 first points. Even that way, I turn on the AC less than 10 times a year (for a short nap in the afternoon). Never at night.

I have ridiculous electricity bills and a good sleep

[Sao Jiang Mai]

Mapguy, good point, but you can always lie in the survey! Don't need your real name or email. As to the numbers of expats. You are absolutely right. Many of them are 'seasonal expats' and live off tourist visas, so immigration numbers become irrelevant.

[Mapguy]

Mapguy, good point, but you can always lie in the survey! Don't need your real name or email. As to the numbers of expats. You are absolutely right. Many of them are 'seasonal expats' and live off tourist visas, so immigration numbers become irrelevant.

Curious answer! I'll remember it when reading your magazine!

[Sao Jiang Mai]

I don't need names, I just want opinions. Nothing to do with mag!

[wolf5370]

If you live within your means you don't ever have a monetary problem, it's when you want to live like the Elite on a Peasant's salary that you get into problems.

Amen to that. It was greed that caused these problems in the first place and it will be the greedy now that suffer.

...snip...

Not realy true though is it. The greedy are still getting golden goodbye's and massive pensions whilst a lot of their innocent workers are joining unemployment queues. The greedy have their million dollar lifestyles, protected pensions and off-shore tax free lump sums - whilst their ex-employees, suppliers and secondary companies (local shops and restaurants that depended on the office staff, etc) that are lossing their houses.

[JimShortz]

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

"Have lost" since last August or since when ? or will be loosing at the end of the school year?

What schools and approximately what numbers of students for each?

APIS, Lanna, PTIS, and NIS for four. Mid-year. Call them for the latest numbers.

I'm not sure where you get your figures from, but Lanna certainly hasn't experienced a loss; in fact numbers are up from the beginning of the year by 15 students overall. There has been a very small reduction in Korean numbers, but somewhat surprisingly an increase in Europeans/half Europeans. I think the more expensive schools such as Prem have been hit, from what I can gather (fees more than double Lanna's). Perhaps Lanna is gaining students as it is now seen as an option with lower cost, but good academic standards? Can anyone give clear figures for other schools and businesses?

What happens over the next year or two as the crunch really reaches Asia we shall have to wait and see...

[Tyke]

Social Security, free medical care, free schooling and the prospect of them or their spouse finding some kind of work are four reasons. Also some folks do still have property in the UK and at some stage the diminished baht value of the rent it currently earns becomes less valuable than going back to live in it. True many things are much cheaper here but for a UK or Australian living on investments and a pension, baht income could be 40% or more down on last year and although I haven't done the sums I'm guessing that the overall cost of being back in the UK (assuming you do have a place to live) is probably not so much higher.

I'm not planning to go home but I don't rate it as so far fetched as I did six months ago. I'm sure my patch of Devon could use another Thai restaurant!

yep those are the reasons.

Well I agree to some extent but I still believe it is overall much cheaper to live in Thailand than in the UK. The UK tax is so much higher, incl. community charges, as well as transport, food, heating, cost of entertainment like cinemas, bars, restaurants etc. I agree about schooling and medical care, but who wants to wait years for treatment on the NHS when treatent is so much cheaper and quicker here. Better to live here, save up the pennies and get quicker treatment.

[dtag]

"Have lost" since last August or since when ? or will be loosing at the end of the school year?

What schools and approximately what numbers of students for each?

APIS, Lanna, PTIS, and NIS for four. Mid-year. Call them for the latest numbers.

Lanna has gained more than twenty students to its overall numbers since August, and has lost few Korean students. NIS planning on more students next school year (may or may not happen)

I've never understood why people give out completely wrong information on these forums.

[Bizz]

have read from top to bottom, times are a changing.

[Ulysses G.]

One thing that I find interesting about this fairly old thread is that I can not think of anyone (that has been around for a while) who has actually left CM and I run into a lot of people.

I also do not notice any more than the usual number of short-timers getting rid of their books to leave the country. Of course, there are a lot of people that I have never met who could be leaving, but it certainly does not seem like an "Exodus" to me. In fact, I constantly meet new people just arriving and expats from other countries (China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bali) who are planning to move here.

As someone mentioned, where are you going to go with cheaper rents, decent meals for 30 baht, friendly women and all the good things for Westerners that we have in Chiang Mai?

[tijnebijn]

One thing that I find interesting about this fairly old thread is that I can not think of anyone (that has been around for a while) who has actually left CM and I run into a lot of people.

I also do not notice any more than the usual number of short-timers getting rid of their books to leave the country. Of course, there are a lot of people that I have never met who could be leaving, but it certainly does not seem like an "Exodus" to me. In fact, I constantly meet new people just arriving and expats from other countries (China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bali) who are planning to move here.

As someone mentioned, where are you going to go with cheaper rents, decent meals for 30 baht, friendly women and all the good things for Westerners that we have in Chiang Mai?

I agree Chiangmai is agreat place to live in , especially combined with a farmhome as well 50 km away as such , although making real money is still a pain in my ass over here , its great for retirement if not the best .

[sarahsbloke]

According to the Chang Rai section, everyone is moving there

because the quality of live is so much better than Chiang Mai.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

LOL.

(I've been to Chiang Rai a couple times, and that's funny.)

[Ulysses G.]

That must be why they only have about 5 posters.

Actually, I have wondered for many years why the members who complain about Chiang Mai being a vibrant city do not move there as it is more like a quiet town with a lot of natural beauty close by, but is also Westerner friendly. I have suggested this to a number of unhappy expats over the last 20 years, but most of them are still in Chiang Mai and still complaining.

Edited July 27, 2010 by Ulysses G.

[tijnebijn]

That must be why they only have about 5 posters.

Actually, I have wondered for many years why the members who complain about Chiang Mai being a vibrant city do not move there as it is more like a quiet town with a lot of natural beauty close by, but is also Westerner friendly. I have suggested this to a number of unhappy expats over the last 20 years, but most of them are still in Chiang Mai and still complaining.

Thats funny , I just can place 2 individuals right at your discription .

Anyways I have something in both worlds , my wifes shop in CM and our home in Chiangdao .

Easy as that .

[Mapguy]

I am glad to see that UG has resurrected this thread. Time for an update. And I would be very interested to hear how Pim's survey has evolved.

Anyway, just to get things started again...

Casually, I hear of a slower market generally in real estate, some restaurants closing (such as Mi Casa), slow business in the general retail sector, some recovery in the industrial zone but reticence in adding managerial staff from abroad, and --- re schools --- Payap still in the enrollment doldrums but recovering slightly and at least one international school (Prem $$$$) way down on enrollment.

It does seem that a lots of "old hands" are simply hunkering down. It does seem that some popular eateries are not hurting, and so on. There actually seems to be a huge number of new sushi places! Pubs? I really don't know.

What about retirees? Is that group holding steady or actually increasing? Other groups --- not tourists or long-term seasonal visitors --- that are here for longer ?

[doppa]

this coming school year, prem will be very lucky to have 400 students, considering their capacity is 600, it's one heck of a drop in terms of income, mind you they havn't had 600 students i would guess for a few years now, which makes their increase in school fees by 3% nonsensical, considering that any large organisation including prem,should first look at staffing levels, which i believe is high on their agenda, along with other cost cutting items, without reducing what quality is already there, if of course there is the quality, mmmmmm.

cmis however have a waiting list for students, there capacity being 400, and of course much reduced term fees, but you cant compare their overall facilities to prems,[ that however may change in the next few years if what they want to do materialises] but can you compare the quality of teaching, answers on a postcard please.

the general fees of prem is neatly associated with the IB system prem use,with their claim 'thats its an expensive system to operate' the only school i believe in chiangmai to offer that creditation.

i suppose it depends whether you hang your hat on the IB as the be all and end all of creditations, i certainly think prem do, but there again they would have to wouldn't they.

[jayjay0]

I don't know that Chiang Mai is cheaper to be honest mate.

Costs wise, there's not that much difference to Bangkok in many regards.

I'd not like to be operating a business reliant on tourist $ at the moment as trips abroad are the first thing people disregard in these times.

Chiang Mai has always been the 'extra' option also. I.e. people go to Bangkok and then to see a beach...Chiang Mai is always the extra three days they throw on while they're in the mood and spending. That kind of tourist will drop off considerably.

Purely personally, I'd be happy if tourists dropped off as I kind of like things quite and relaxed. However, I realise that a lot of people's livelihoods depend on tourist $.

It's going to be a difficult few years IMO.

I myself have considered Bali for the last few years. We go every year and I find the cost the same as Chiang Mai. I can spend as much as I want or as little as I want. The one big thing against going there is money. My Canadian dollar and US dollar are way down. It is like the Indonesian money is getting stronger.

[jayjay0]

Economic distress must certainly have hit just about everyone in the expatriate community. If it isn't the collapsing investment portfolio and the threat of lost retirement benefits, it might be the brutal change in some currency exchange rates of recent months. Sometimes it is both!

Some people are hunkering down; others are shipping out (or being shipped out by their companies). But it is very hard to get an overall view about what's going on. So, what do you know and what do you hear? I mean to include all expatriates in the discussion and the discussion to be about all expatriates, not just the Anglo- or Eurocentric. And I don't mean to include here discussion of the illegal Burmese worker problem, which is an issue of its own.

I'll start it off:

International schools have lost a fairly considerable number of students (around 50) from the Korean community.

I have heard of repatriation of various managers of enterprises in the industrial estates south of town. Anyone have any sense of the extent?

One hears of failing businesses. True? Are the owners still around?

Can certainly vouch for what you've heard about the reduction of expat staff numbers on the Lamphun Industrial Estates, I know of at least 10 myself and I suspect the actual figure is many times that number although companies are reluctant to go into details. The loss of these people is obviously due to reductions in demand brought about by the global recession and bearing in mind that most authorities seem to now believe that this is going to be with us for some time then this trend to reduce expat staff is likely to continue if not actually increase. If that's true then it follows that the numbers enrolled at the International Schools will also decrease leading in-turn to staff lay-offs.

When I first arrived in Chiangmai in 1979, foreigners were comparatively rare and I can't remember anybody who came here to actually retire; that phenomena seemed to begin in the mid to late 90's and continued apace right up to last year when economic reality kicked in. Thailand can be cheap but it can also be very expensive. If you live like a Thai then it's quite possible to live on less that 20,000 Baht a month but if you want a western lifestyle then you need plenty of money and the sky's the limit. The fact is that most expats don't live like Thais nor do they want to, hence the strain on their purse strings right now. WinnieTheKhwai has it in one when he writes "I think this topic would be equally if not more appropriate on a UK (for example) forum, as that's where the misery originates, not Thailand which is the same as ever. If money is a problem now then mistakes were made when calculating retirement needs and income." It is those very mistakes I think that will see a very large number of expats returning to their own countries. Incidentally I've seen the Baht range between 27 and 90 Baht to the Pound Sterling; it's just that many retirees only came here after the '97 crash and subsequent devaluation so I think they may have got a rather false impression.

From a personal point of view for the last 20 years I've been selling things in the UK that I export from here. This year I'll be exporting the least ever which means fewer orders for my suppliers; the high value of the baht is one thing but the main problem is reduced demand. Fortunately my wife, a Thai, has a good job and a high salary here in Thailand but for how long, who can say. We own houses in Thailand and the UK so could choose to live in either country without financial strain but I think the thing that will ultimately decide where we reside will not be money but more likely politics. Am I alone?

Your self and WinnieTheKhwai both make the same mistake.

You both assume it is all about money and employment. I have a friend who is on a waiting list for a retirement home in Canada. there is not a lot of options for some of the older people here. I belong to the expat club here in Chiang Mai and they were recently asking if people with some time to spare could visit a elderly lonely person. I don't really know about the rest of Thailand but I do know of one place that would pass for a retirement home here in Chiang Mai. I have heard talk of some people interested in starting another one. The average age of the expats is going up and two such places is not enough answers for that problem. It can only get worse. And yes I know you can hire some one but that is not a answer for every one. You will note I say answers becouse I am sure there are other solutions out there.:jap:

I have no figures for it but I do believe part of the exodus has some thing to do with the opinions some Thais have and there willingness to shove them down your throat with violent means.

Edited July 27, 2010 by jayjay0

[Loaded]

For as long as I have been here farangs have complained that the world is ending. Businesses close and open - that's life. I really wish there was an exodus because this city is too popular with Westerners now.