Hiv - Number Of Sexual Partners

[CrossBones]

I originally posted this here, could the admin delete it http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...pic=24719&st=75

Does having more sexual partners significantly increase the likely hood of a straight man catching HIV?

For the sake of arguement lets dare to assume that the risk of contracting HIV per exposure with an HIV infected woman without condom use is 1%.

And say the risk of a woman catching from a man is 5%

And say one in 10 people I have sex with has HIV (sake of arguement)

I am a man and I don't know who has HIV.

If I have sex with one woman frequently of unknown HIV status every time the chances 1 in 10 (10 percent) of 1% - so 0.1% chance of contracting HIV from this woman every time I have sex with her (her HIV status is unknown, if it was known she has HIV it would be 1%)

Now the chances are the same for any women I have unprotected sex with? So the number of partners I have is irrenevant.

What is more relavant is the number of sexual partners she has - because that would put her in a higher risk category becuase it is easier for a woman to catch HIV from a man than vice versa.

Does this make any sense or is my maths totally wrong here?

What I am trying to say to guys is you might feel you are safe, staying with one lady and having unprotected sex with her. But infact you are no safer than someone who has unprotected sex with many different women in the same risk category. A high risk category would be a Thai lady who has previously worked in the sex industry (sorry I know we aren't meant to mention sex industry, is it ok in this context?). If you have a lady in an HIV risk category -1 in 10 chance of having HIV. If you have unprotected sex with her for 100 times you have a one in 1000 chance of having caught HIV. The same would be if you had unprotected sex with 100 different women who have also worked in the industry - HIV status is unknown.

I tried to explain this to a friend who has unprotected sex with an ex-BG of unknown HIV status. He insists it is safe - safer than having unprotected sex with a number of different BG's. He actually thinks having unprotected sex with her is safer than having condom sex with many BG's. I think he imagines his girlfriend would certainly know if she had HIV becuase she would have had some symptoms after leaving the industry for over a year.

Edited May 7, 2005 by CrossBones

[waldwolf]

^^ I think what your trying to say is exactly what most HIV/AIDS researchers and specialists have repeatedly stated........

"When you have sex with someone, your also having sex with every partner that individual ever slept with."

......his girlfriend would certainly know if she had HIV becuase she would have had some symptoms after leaving the industry for over a year.

Not true.

Upon infection, some people may have flu-like or other symptoms lasting a few days. Other will have no symptoms whatsoever.

The average incubation period from HIV infection to primary detectable illiness is 3 weeks to 6 months.

The time from HIV infection to AIDS diagnosis can be as short as 2 months or as long as 20 years.

If you gamble.........there is always the chance you may loose!

[Suzy]

I originally posted this here, could the admin delete it http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...pic=24719&st=75

Does having more sexual partners significantly increase the likely hood of a straight man catching HIV?

For the sake of arguement lets dare to assume that the risk of contracting HIV per exposure with an HIV infected woman without condom use is 1%.

And say the risk of a woman catching from a man is 5%

And say one in 10 people I have sex with has HIV (sake of arguement)

I am a man and I don't know who has HIV.

If I have sex with one woman frequently of unknown HIV status every time the chances 1 in 10 (10 percent) of 1% - so 0.1% chance of contracting HIV from this woman every time I have sex with her (her HIV status is unknown, if it was known she has HIV it would be 1%)

Now the chances are the same for any women I have unprotected sex with? So the number of partners I have is irrenevant.

What is more relavant is the number of sexual partners she has - because that would put her in a higher risk category becuase it is easier for a woman to catch HIV from a man than vice versa.

Does this make any sense or is my maths totally wrong here?

What I am trying to say to guys is you might feel you are safe, staying with one lady and having unprotected sex with her. But infact you are no safer than someone who has unprotected sex with many different women in the same risk category. A high risk category would be a Thai lady who has previously worked in the sex industry (sorry I know we aren't meant to mention sex industry, is it ok in this context?). If you have a lady in an HIV risk category -1 in 10 chance of having HIV. If you have unprotected sex with her for 100 times you have a one in 1000 chance of having caught HIV. The same would be if you had unprotected sex with 100 different women who have also worked in the industry - HIV status is unknown.

I tried to explain this to a friend who has unprotected sex with an ex-BG of unknown HIV status. He insists it is safe - safer than having unprotected sex with a number of different BG's. He actually thinks having unprotected sex with her is safer than having condom sex with many BG's. I think he imagines his girlfriend  would certainly know if she had HIV becuase she would have had some symptoms after leaving the industry for over a year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sex increases the risk of catching HIV, unprotected sex increases the risk even more. If you don't want to run the risk - don't indulge!

[patricktan]

The answer ....don't take any chance.....wear rain coat.

[austen]

The old "Russian Roulette" oft-cliched example can certainly apply here:

Stick a bullet in a 10-chamber gun and let it roll--fire it at your head.

Or...

Do the same with 10 guns, fire them at your head one after the other.

Either way, the bullet is inevitable...though I'd say chances are you'll get it much sooner in the 10-gun example.

Though-provoking post, btw...

Edited May 23, 2005 by austen

[devildog683]

the answer is yes

its the same way that you are more likely to be in a plane wreck if you fly then if you dont, common sense

[daveb1]

Its not how many people you have sex with thats the danger its what u do with them and how safe you are!

[Ijustwannateach]

What country did the OP study math in?

If you flip a coin 10 times, the chance EACH time that you get heads is only 50%. But the chance to get heads 10 times in a row is [one divided by 2^10], a very small number, NOT 50%.

If your chance to get HIV in any one encounter is .1% (as per your example), then your chance NOT to get it is 99.9%, or .999. If you keep having sex, each time you multiply this base chance NOT to get HIV by .999. Then your chance to have gotten HIV is 1 minus whatever that number is. As you can see, by multiplying .999 by itself over and over, this number gets smaller- and your chance to get HIV increases.

DaveB1 also has a point, but as there is NO such thing as completely safe sex (the virus always has at least a chance, even with a condom- which does not block ALL the virus [or semen] but only acts as a net for most of it) every sexual encounter is risky. Which means that unless you are 100% certain that every partner is HIV negative (which means you are sure they have been abstinent for the last 6 months since their negative HIV test), all sex carries a risk, however small.

Whistling in the dark.

"Steven"

[jrincon17]

The answer ....don't take any chance.....wear rain coat.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Scary subject !

[fw1]

In addition to the points above, there are other, significant factors that cannot be formulated into a mathematical equation. Most notably that those who have become infected with HIV in this country often do not stop sleeping around. In fact, some (one or two documented on this website somewhere) will intentionally go and sleep with as many people as they can as a form of revenge for contracting it in the first place.

I'd be very careful of sleeping with anyone who offers you unprotected sex without it being a problem. Via friends I've heard of two girls in the Nana area who are so angry with foreigners, whom they have contracted the virus from, that they want nothing other than to infect as many people as they can. Again, there are other documented cases of this on this website.

The whole thing makes me shudder and feel glad I'm not involved with the nightlife scene, and that those who are, those that regularly have unprotected sex (I know of two people that do) are bloody idiots.

Use a condom mate. Alternatively, try masturbation. You know Woody Allen once said 'Don't knock masturbation, it's sex with someone I love'.

Edited May 23, 2005 by fw1

[slimdog]

To start with, I would like to say that to use statistics to govern one's unsafe sexual practices is very dangerous. To use simple statistics as used in the original post is even more dangerous.

The fact is some people seem to be more prone to catching the disease than others, this has been highlighted in many well publised cases where people with AIDS have knowingly had unprotected sex with numerous partners, and a percentage of these partners have contracted the disease, whilst others have remained uninfected.

For the ones who became hiv+, their chances of catching the disease was 100 %. Unfortunetely, until you have unprotected sex with someone who is hiv+, you do not know if you are more prone to being infected. Even then; the only real conclusions you can come up with are whether you are more prone to catching the disease. You cannot make the assumption that because you did not catch the disease, that you are less prone, because other factors come into the equation, the three biggest remaining factors would be:

1. Viral load

2. Sub strain

3. The state of ones own immune system.

Having multiple sex partners increases your chance of being infected, because you are more likely to have sex with someone with either:

1. A higher viral load

2. A different or multiple sub strains

Obviously girls who work in the "Entertainment Industry" have sex with people from all over the world therefore are more likely to come into contact with all the various substrains as well as the E strain which is the most predominent in Thailand. Likewise the more partners the more chance you come into contact with someone with a high viral load. On top of that you also have to take into account the state of one's own health, if you are "Run Down" or your immune system is already battling another infection then your likelyhood of being infected increases dramatically.

To coin a well used phrase: Having unprotected sex is like playing Russian Roulette. Only in this case the more partners the more bullets..

[Ijustwannateach]

Having protected sex is like Russian Roulette, too, only with fewer bullets.