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UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht


cavelight

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I for one cannot see myself going home to the UK even at this rate of £ to Baht.

Too many prices in the UK are inflated, like Gas, Electric, food and more. So what if a T-shirt costs more here? How often do we buy those as opposed to gas, electric and food?

I can still live reasonably well in Thailand even at 45 Baht - £. It is often a case of cutting the cloth to fit and if that means curbing some excesses from my daily / weekly lifestyle, then so be it. What is one less night out in the pub here saving 500 Baht + a week and that compensates for the fluctuations in the £ / Baht.

Luckily I do not have to pay for sex. I go to the local market for my food and I am happy to cook at home. The car runs on LPG and is economical. I also have a g/f who understands the £ is not too good at the moment and she is also happy to cut back on any excess.

Wth prudence surely we can manage quite well here. So, be prudent.

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Anyone who doesn't think that Sterling is collapsing clearly has no understanding of whats happening. This is not just a short term blip - this is the foreseeable future. There is nothing in the way of Sterling's fall. It will keep on falling because there is nothing that can arrest the fall. Eventually (maybe next year) when GBP/USD is down to 1.20 and the Thai baht is sub 30 Sterling will look cheap and traders will start to buy Sterling instead of selling it.

The return to current levels (50 baht to the pound) could take years, possibly decades. 70 baht to the pound is already a dim and distant memory. In 12 months time its likely that anyone wanting to retire in Thailand (800,000 in a Thai bank) will need about £25,000.

I hope I'm wrong but I fear the worst.

are you really trying to tell me that sterling wont hit 50 baht again for years or decades? & I knew enough to bring my money in at 66 in 2008

Rising slowly - xe

1.00 GBP

=

49.0148 THB

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 49.0148 THB 1 THB = 0.0204020 GBP

XE.com do not offer these rate here. The Thai banks do.

Bangkok Bank 2nd March 2010

Exchange Rate 1 British Pound = 47.9538 Thai Baht

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If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

Thanks, Slim, for those comments, but I wish you knew a little more about international currency trends.

Yes, "it must fall against something", that's right, but it's only half right.

What you've missed is the "something".

I respectfully suggest you look more carefully, before you call foul or "nonsense".

Most currencies are falling against gold and other PMs.

Teletiger is close to the right track, but only close.

All currencies are falling against gold.

By that standard of measure, there is not one currency -- in recent years -- that is holding up.

(Currency charts are widely available on the Internet for all to see.)

Everything confirms Teletiger's signature, "A storm is coming".

So, for a financial safe harbour, what else might hold up (besides gold)?

Where else if not the Pound, the Euro, the Dollar, etc?

I wish I knew.

-- Oneman

Chiagmai

.

Just a suggestion Oneman, the Swiss Franc.

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If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

Thanks, Slim, for those comments, but I wish you knew a little more about international currency trends.

Yes, "it must fall against something", that's right, but it's only half right.

What you've missed is the "something".

I respectfully suggest you look more carefully, before you call foul or "nonsense".

Most currencies are falling against gold and other PMs.

Teletiger is close to the right track, but only close.

All currencies are falling against gold.

By that standard of measure, there is not one currency -- in recent years -- that is holding up.

(Currency charts are widely available on the Internet for all to see.)

Everything confirms Teletiger's signature, "A storm is coming".

So, for a financial safe harbour, what else might hold up (besides gold)?

Where else if not the Pound, the Euro, the Dollar, etc?

I wish I knew.

Oneman - why don't you stick to posts you know something about about rather than nothing.

Gold is NOT a currency - its a commodity.

The fact that gold is more expensive today than it was 12 months ago against EVERY currency does not mean that the Thai baht is "weaker".

You measure the strength of currencies against other currencies. That is the only measure of a currency's strength or weakness.

As a full time Forex trader I fully understand how the currency markets work - not an accusation that could leveled against you.

-- Oneman

Chiagmai

.

Oneman - why don't you stick to posts you know something about about rather than nothing.

Gold is NOT a currency - its a commodity.

The fact that gold is more expensive today than it was 12 months ago against EVERY currency does not mean that the Thai baht is "weaker".

You measure the strength of currencies against other currencies. That is the only measure of a currency's strength or weakness.

As a full time Forex trader I fully understand how the currency markets work - not an accusation that could leveled against you.

Edited by slim
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I could not understand why the pound stayed above 50 and now is dropping which I can understand. The UK economy is a mess. The country is overtaxed even to the point of a TV Tax to support BBC, the Govt controlled major news outlet. When the politicians can control the major news outlet, they can control the news and the people of the UK. Socialized medicine in the UK is a disgrace. UK is heading down the tubes and those who are retired in Thailand will be forced to go back to a country whose a economy along with it's banking industry is in a shambles. In the USA, the Socialist President Obama is taking the USA down the socialization path that merry ole UK enjoys. Obama is pushing a massive Socialized Healthcare Plan that has a cost of over 1 Trillion Dollars. Obama's 2010 budget has a deficit of 1.6 Trillion Dollars, more money in debt than the cost of the entire Bush budget of 2001. Bush's last year in office had a out of control $800 Billion Dollar deficit, Obama's first year ending deficit was $1.4 Trillion. UK economy is in a mess and USA is about to join hand and hand with the UK. The Dollar will soon crash against the Baht as the Pound is now doing.

You wouldn't know a Socialist if he jumped up and bit you.

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Everyone knows Thailand has been slowly outpricing itself over the last few years. It's now quite an expensive place to live, as an expat. Also, Thai visa regulations are only getting more strict, and costly.

Some have made comments on this thread about "going home." WHY???? If you can't afford Thailand, just move next door. Vietnam is a lot cheaper than Thailand. It has several beaches, good infastructure, good nightlife, good food and the locals are friendly. Sihanoukville - Cambodia has boomed in recent times. Vietnam is issuing 6 month multiple entry visas without a drama. Last time I visited Cambodia, they were issuing 12 month business visas, on arrival, for $25US.

A visit to these places will take you back, financially, to the "good old days" when Thailand was cheap. You can sit out the economic storm and go back to Thailand one day, or you just may decide you are happier there. No need to go home.

I understand some have children, or other responsibilities, but for those who do not, it's a viable option than returning to Europe.

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As with most everything, the more there is of it, the less valuable it becomes. On the bright side, it makes growing debt more sustainable. It also keeps more money in circulation, as the longer it's held the less purchasing power it has, so spend it quickly before it becomes worthless.

Who brought up Health Care in America? The number one priority in America should be "jobs", not Health Care.

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the Swiss Franc.

Elektrified:

Currency charts for Swiss Franc to gold during the past five years show a serious decline -- not quite as bad as the Pound, but plenty bad.

I'm not pushing gold -- I don't care one way or another about gold -- but what other safe haven is available?

I wish I knew.

...more money in circulation, as the longer it's held the less purchasing power it has, so spend it quickly before it becomes worthless ...

z9999 is right on target ... and offers us a fine, off-the-cuff description of hyperinflation.

And that's what worries me, too -- the massive volatility that is coming.

What we have is an incoming financial Tsunami.

This month, Pound and Euro down, Dollar up.

Next month, they trade places on the down and up curves.

Thai Baht will roller-coaster, too, as the Aussie Dollar has been doing these past few years.

Canadian dollar is not immune.

I haven't found any safe haven from the volatility.

Maybe buying a rice field in Isaarn would be a good idea.

Use my excess Baht to buy dirt.

If I could, I would, but farangs can't.

-- Oneman

Chiangmai

.

Edited by Oneman
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XE.com do not offer these rate here. The Thai banks do.

Bangkok Bank 2nd March 2010

Exchange Rate 1 British Pound = 47.9538 Thai Baht

Depends on how you are changing(transferring) funds:

If you change notes at a bank in Thailand you will get something like 47.695B/£

If you cash in Travellers cheques you will get something like 48.175B/£

If you transfer funds from a UK bank to a Thai bank you will get something like 48.575B/£

The XE rates (48.8949 THB/£) are interbank rates which are not far off what you get for transferring funds.

(rates from SCB Bank (last update 9:25 (2:25GMT)) and and the XE.Com rate at 13:45 (06:45GMT))

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The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

I don't agree. The US Dollar is enjoying a rally based on an increase in the intest rate for emergency loans.

Just wait for inflation to have an effect in Europe and the UK and things will change but, not anytime soon.

As Corporal Jones would say, "Don't panic Mr Mainwaring!"

In the short to medium term, USD is to be preferred over Pounds and by changing into GBP into USD the holder will retain more of their Sterling value. Clearly there comes a point when it's right to get out of USD into something else and that something else is determined by which currency the holder is trying to protect. If the end game is to finish up with more Pounds then the switch from GBP into USD and then back again will do the trick. But if the holder needs Baht they will need a third step. Frankly, if Baht is the end currency one could do a lot worse than to switch from GBP straight into Baht and stay there, 47 Baht per Pound may look bad to day but it will look quite attractive in say six months time when the rate is say 35 or 40.

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The OP wants the Thai Goverment to step in and peg the baht. The pound's slide has nothing to do with the baht, it is goingt down against everything. against the AUD it had held around $2.00 for some years, in the last 6-9 months it fell to around $1.80 right now it is $1.65.

There are financial gurus around that have made dire predictions about the long term viability of the UK economy and by definition about the value of sterling.

North Sea oil, will not last very much longer, the old stand by of "invisibles" from The City are no longer the earners they were, you don't have to buy from London, traditional manufacturing pretty much gone and a bloody big national debt.

I don't make these points as a gloating Aussie, I am English born and bred and still have lots of family and friends there.

It's bad for me sending money from the UK but as always there are 2 sides to this. UK exports are cheaper and US and others are dearer so might help our recovery.

Still doesn't help me though.

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It's not the Baht that's strong it's the Pound and the Euro that are weak.

"Theoldgit" may be old, but he's is still sharp:

That's exactly what's happening, just that most don't think about it that way.

The Pound is falling.

The Euro is falling.

The Baht is falling, too, just more slowly, so it gives the illusion of being "stronger".

But they are all going down.

All over the world, every country's money is falling.

Thailand is no exception.

-- Oneman

Chiangmai

This is complete nonsense. There is no illusion about the strength of the Thai baht against the USD, EURO and GBP which is what this thread is all about. "The Pound is falling The Euro is falling" - not against each other they're not. The Euro is nearly at parity to the GBP from a position of 2 Euro to the pound not long ago.

If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

when was the euro 2 a pound, i must have missed that and I have been buying euro with pounds since it started, best i ever got was 1.67 to £1

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I was pullin for you Brits to make a stand against the Euro but it looks like you better just fold

EUR is about to bounce , Gpb is heading for the south pole, then the Eur will follow, followed by the USD. Paper currencies ?????????? I think not.

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This is complete nonsense. There is no illusion about the strength of the Thai baht against the USD, EURO and GBP which is what this thread is all about. "The Pound is falling The Euro is falling" - not against each other they're not. The Euro is nearly at parity to the GBP from a position of 2 Euro to the pound not long ago.

If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

I really don't think there has ever been 2 euro to the GBP. Think you are mixed up with USD, which yes, was 2 v 1 not so long ago.

Euro started life around 1.65 (about same as kilometers to miles) & its been very much a downhill ride ever since.

As soon as it started to slip years ago i said i thought one day it would become 1 v £1, nobody believed me. Watch this space!

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This is complete nonsense. There is no illusion about the strength of the Thai baht against the USD, EURO and GBP which is what this thread is all about. "The Pound is falling The Euro is falling" - not against each other they're not. The Euro is nearly at parity to the GBP from a position of 2 Euro to the pound not long ago.

If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

I really don't think there has ever been 2 euro to the GBP. Think you are mixed up with USD, which yes, was 2 v 1 not so long ago.

Euro started life around 1.65 (about same as kilometers to miles) & its been very much a downhill ride ever since.

As soon as it started to slip years ago i said i thought one day it would become 1 v £1, nobody believed me. Watch this space!

GBP/USD, 1.05 in 1984, that was the closest it ever got and whilst it may not seem like long ago, it was 25 years ago, really!

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Bugger,Bugger,Bugger

That was quick.

"Richards" has only 5 posts (as of now), and already he's qualified himself for my ignore list.

Thanks to frequent use of the "ignore user" function, this forum keeps getting better and better -- for me.

I hope that function is useful to others, too.

-- Oneman

Chiangmai

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It's not the Baht that's strong it's the Pound and the Euro that are weak.

"Theoldgit" may be old, but he's is still sharp:

That's exactly what's happening, just that most don't think about it that way.

The Pound is falling.

The Euro is falling.

The Baht is falling, too, just more slowly, so it gives the illusion of being "stronger".

But they are all going down.

All over the world, every country's money is falling.

Thailand is no exception.

(Clever readers will ask, "Falling against what?"

That's a worthwhile question, but better saved for a different thread, because the topic here is the Pound and the Baht.)

This is not just a short term blip - this is the foreseeable future. There is nothing in the way of Sterling's fall. It will keep on falling because there is nothing that can arrest the fall. ... In 12 months time its likely that anyone wanting to retire in Thailand (800,000 in a Thai bank) will need about £25,000. ... I hope I'm wrong but I fear the worst.

Superb analysis.

Thank you, "Slim".

We might quibble about the amount of the "fall", but falling it is.

a number of expats have said enough is enough and returned to their homelands. ... I have to wonder what I would be going back to.

There is no "wonder" about it.

If your homeland is/was primarily English-speaking (UK, US, Canada, Australia, NZ, etc.), then its either going or already gone.

Similar with our European friends.

What we once had in our "home" countries simply is no more, and never will be again.

Not in the life time of anyone reading this now.

The cultural decay and the financial depression are too deep, have gone too far.

I'm staying.

There's nowhere else I can see that offers similar quality of life as Thailand, let alone any place better.

Yes, problems on the horizon -- not to be discussed here -- but there are problems everywhere.

I've assessed the risks and will take my chances in Thailand.

I'm open to further discussion -- on the forum, or in private messages.

(For this sort of topic, private messages are usually more productive.)

-- Oneman

Chiangmai

Well put Oneman however you could replace the word Thailand with the word Vietnam and it would work just as well.

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YIPPEE :)

Good news for me - I'm going to the UK this month.

Also, when I send money home to my mother, she gets more.

It isn't too bad for the pensioners - it was only 37 baht to the pound when I first came here in 1992.

It might make a few of the undesirable stay away from here, or go back too.

Your post is total rubbish.

Back in the early 90s the cost of living in Thailand was less than a quarter compared with today`s prices and Thai bank interest rates reached a high of 13%. Plus only 150000 baht was required for a one year Non Immigrant visa.

With an amount of 1 million baht in the bank, you could very comfortably live on the interest without tapping into the capital or need to bring over more money.

Things have changed dramatically and it`s going to be financially down hill from now on.

very very true, 'Neeranam' does not know what he's talking about!

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YIPPEE :)

Good news for me - I'm going to the UK this month.

Also, when I send money home to my mother, she gets more.

It isn't too bad for the pensioners - it was only 37 baht to the pound when I first came here in 1992.

It might make a few of the undesirable stay away from here, or go back too.

Your post is total rubbish.

Back in the early 90s the cost of living in Thailand was less than a quarter compared with today`s prices and Thai bank interest rates reached a high of 13%. Plus only 150000 baht was required for a one year Non Immigrant visa.

With an amount of 1 million baht in the bank, you could very comfortably live on the interest without tapping into the capital or need to bring over more money.

Things have changed dramatically and it`s going to be financially down hill from now on.

I'm sure you don't really mean that, the best rate you're likely to get on Baht 1 mill. at the moment is probably around 1.5% so that's Baht 15,000 a year, pretty tough to live on that anywhere! Even Baht 30 mill at the rate would only just generate enough income to qualify fo teh married persons visa.

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YIPPEE :)

Good news for me - I'm going to the UK this month.

Also, when I send money home to my mother, she gets more.

It isn't too bad for the pensioners - it was only 37 baht to the pound when I first came here in 1992.

It might make a few of the undesirable stay away from here, or go back too.

Your post is total rubbish.

Back in the early 90s the cost of living in Thailand was less than a quarter compared with today`s prices and Thai bank interest rates reached a high of 13%. Plus only 150000 baht was required for a one year Non Immigrant visa.

With an amount of 1 million baht in the bank, you could very comfortably live on the interest without tapping into the capital or need to bring over more money.

Things have changed dramatically and it`s going to be financially down hill from now on.

No it's not rubbish.

House prices in Thailand reached their highest point in 1992 (adjusted for inflation). Contrary to popular belief, house prices were already on the decline prior to the 1997 Asian Crisis, falling 2.4% p.a. from 1992 to 1997 in inflation-adjusted terms.

Very nice chart that shows the trends and the indices here http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Th...d/Price-History

If we go into Mr. Peabody's way back machine, to the year of 1992 we see that the UK base rate was in steady decline and went from 10% in May to 7% at the end of November. (The base rate was 15% in 1989. )

In fairness, subsequent to Black Wednesday 16-Sept-1992 the UK government did raise interest rates to 15% to stabilize things. However, times were quite bleak in the UK;

1992 - Still recession - still various protestations of recovery from politicians! GDP declined by 1 %. Combined effect of the recession raised unemployment to 2.87m - more than 50% of them out of work for more than 6 months, and a third for more than a year. Businesses collapsed at a rate of about 1,200 per week.

But inflation fell to 3% - helped by interest rate cuts. House prices continue to fall, and `negative equity' to rise.

Concerns about the UK economy and the French referendum on Maastricht send pound down to its bottom limit. Fears that sterling would be devalued fuelled significant selling of the £ and buying of the Deutschmark. As a result of departure from ERM, interest rates are cut significantly.

And the situation in Thailand? Interest rates were also declining. The lower rates were so attractive that companies were rushing to refinance debt. Here's a nice article reference;

Jan 14, 1992 - Bangkok Post (Bangkok, Thailand) (via Knight-Ridder/Tribune Business News); July 16, 2003 ; 527 words ...Byline: Darana Chudasri Jul. 16--Low interest rates are attracting corporate bond issuing to refinance higher costs of funds ... 100 billion baht reached last year. But low interest ...

So no, it isn't rubbish, but shows he has a very good memory for an elderly gentleman. :D

Thanks for that clarification - haven't a clue why he thinks my post is rubbish - the high baht is good for me as I get paid in baht(and dollars) and visit the UK. The baht is higher than it was when I came here which is good, if I were getting sterling.

Edited by Neeranam
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If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

Exactly, seems to be difficult to understand for some. I, on the other hand, have problems to understand why the Baht is still going so strong. The future of this country isn't looking too bright, is it?

It's normally kept strong by utilising foreign reserves. At the moment there is no need for support as the damage to the pound is doing the job for them.

If "in-house" problems occur in the future then support from the resrves will start taking place again.

my opinion only

caf

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Bugger,Bugger,Bugger

That was quick.

"Richards" has only 5 posts (as of now), and already he's qualified himself for my ignore list.

Thanks to frequent use of the "ignore user" function, this forum keeps getting better and better -- for me.

I hope that function is useful to others, too.

-- Oneman

Chiangmai

I don't get it. Why do you put someone on your ignore list for saying Bugger, bugger, bugger? Three words which seem to sum up the financial crisis very nicely. Are you just sensitive?

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YIPPEE :)

Good news for me - I'm going to the UK this month.

Also, when I send money home to my mother, she gets more.

It isn't too bad for the pensioners - it was only 37 baht to the pound when I first came here in 1992.

It might make a few of the undesirable stay away from here, or go back too.

i find undesirables of all races including natives.

How does making Thailand more expensive to English people help keep undesirables away?

Different kinds of people have a different definition of undesirables.

For example, the guy living on a minimum pension who comes here for cheap sex and has a Thai vocabulary of "poom pui", "poong" and "same same" may find the scruffy shirtless guy cheating the dole desirable, whereas I don't.

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The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

Hmmm... and doing what everyone else in the world is doing is offered as good advice...? Think very carefully before you fall in line on this as a precipitous fall of the U.S. dollar is on the cards...

Stimulus package my a*se; extending welfare benefits to 99 weeks 99 weeks on the brew and using money they simply don't have to prop-up bloated union contracts country wide does not create jobs in the private sector, far from it, it simply adds to an already unsustainable level of debt and it's getting worse by the day, can somebody please explain how this stimulates anything..? Tax revenues are created in the PRIVATE SECTOR and yet the private sector is under attack by a Socialist Idealogue. Government cannot create jobs that add tax revenues to the state coffers, pure and simple, the only anwser to this is for jobs to be created in the private sector, but only an idiot hires additional staff when there is no demand for products or services and the future tax burdens (health care anyone..?) and regulatory constraints on business are unknown, otherwise known as 'no political stability'. What was an annual deficit under Bush, is now a monthly deficit under Obama... the writing is on the wall.

Oh, lets not forget the elephant in the room... Opinion is growing in China (amongst those with sway in the 'party'), that the dominance of the U.S. needs to be challenged (and not just verbally...) Calls by PLA officer to challenge the dominance of the U.S.

Edited by DeepSea
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The last couple of pages of this thread tells the story:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pound-Starti...64#entry3379764

If you've got money in Pounds it's probably a very good time to sell it and buy US Dollars, that's what everyone else in the world is doing.

That's just the propaganda. The USD is worse off than the Pound. The Euro just as bad. They are heading towards their intrinsic value.

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Exactly why so many people think that the Baht is kept strong through artificially through intervention is beyond me, the reality is that the BOT utilises its reserves periodically to weaken the Baht - the stated objectives of the BOT are to keep the Baht at the midpoint of a basket of regional currencies and to ensure there are no sudden and large scale swings against the US Dollar. As regional currencies strengthen against USD then so the Baht is allowed to increase its value also, otherwise, the main effort is to try and keep the lid on the currency lest it becomes too strong and as such, uncompetitive. Remember, BOT has foreign reserves in excess of USD $135 bill. and has positive balances in all categories - fortunately THB is not a major currency hence it does not cost central bank very much to control its value.

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It's not the Baht that's strong it's the Pound and the Euro that are weak.

"Theoldgit" may be old, but he's is still sharp:

That's exactly what's happening, just that most don't think about it that way.

The Pound is falling.

The Euro is falling.

The Baht is falling, too, just more slowly, so it gives the illusion of being "stronger".

But they are all going down.

All over the world, every country's money is falling.

Thailand is no exception.

-- Oneman

Chiangmai

This is complete nonsense. There is no illusion about the strength of the Thai baht against the USD, EURO and GBP which is what this thread is all about. "The Pound is falling The Euro is falling" - not against each other they're not. The Euro is nearly at parity to the GBP from a position of 2 Euro to the pound not long ago.

If a currency falls, it must fall against something else - because that's what exchange rates are all about.

when was the euro 2 a pound, i must have missed that and I have been buying euro with pounds since it started, best i ever got was 1.67 to £1

You're right - i should have said nearly £2 to the EURO. There was a time when .56 euro would buy £1 (it was 10 years ago though)

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Exactly why so many people think that the Baht is kept strong through artificially through intervention is beyond me, the reality is that the BOT utilises its reserves periodically to weaken the Baht - the stated objectives of the BOT are to keep the Baht at the midpoint of a basket of regional currencies and to ensure there are no sudden and large scale swings against the US Dollar. As regional currencies strengthen against USD then so the Baht is allowed to increase its value also, otherwise, the main effort is to try and keep the lid on the currency lest it becomes too strong and as such, uncompetitive. Remember, BOT has foreign reserves in excess of USD $135 bill. and has positive balances in all categories - fortunately THB is not a major currency hence it does not cost central bank very much to control its value.

We are considering two currencies in this thread. So it is perfectly proper to discuss why the pound is weak and that the central bank can and does control the baht.

As Slim would probably agree

caf

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