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Reds plan to paralyse BKK, topple govt : sources

By Pravit Rojanaphruk,

Naya Jakawang

The Nation

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BANGKOK: -- The red-shirt movement, in its last ditch effort to topple Abhisit Vejjajiva's government and its back-up forces, are mobilising a huge protest march from four regions to paralyse the capital on Friday.

With Maoist tactics of the "forest surrounding the town", protesters from the provinces will move from their home towns to the capital by farm and pickup trucks, plus buses to put pressure on the government.

Members of groups in many provinces - Nakhon Ratchasima, Prachin Buri, Angthong and Songkhla - prepared yesterday for a long march to Bangkok.

They are due to gather at six sites in Bangkok and its outskirts before moving to Rajdamnoen Avenue on Friday evening, said Jaran Dittapichai, a leader of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD).

"The gathering at six centres will last until 4-5pm on March 12," Jaran said, adding that the decision to converge at one large site was a result of 20 hours of deliberation.

The red shirts are prepared to face the declaration of a state of emergency by the government or any special laws and will try to persevere through sheer weight of numbers. They to draw several hundred thousand rural people to Bangkok.

"They won't succeed in stopping us from entering Bangkok even with special laws, unless they resort to violence," Jaran told The Nation.

Jaran reckons the stretch along Rajdamnoen Ave from the Rattanakosin Hotel to the Rama V Equestrian Monument is about three kilometres long, and the road 40 metres wide, with an area of about 120,000 square metres. With three people per square metre, that could hold 360,000 protesters.

"The huge crowd will act as pressure against the government," he said.

Asked about the potential for violence, Jaran said 5,000 red-shirt guards were trained to ensure things proceed smoothly.

Nobody knows how long the demonstration will last and how serious the situation will be - but the government is prepared for a worst-case scenario of violence and riots.

Nattawut Saikua, another key DAAD member, said low-rank military officers from the lower class and grass-roots would work to help the red shirts topple the aristocrat-backed government.

"We call it the watermelon army - meaning they wear a green uniform but have a red heart inside. They will come out to help us," he said.

The red-shirts hope to deliver a knock-out punch to the government by Sunday, a source close to the group's inner circle said but declined to go into details. Hardcore members of the group aim to create chaos in Bangkok with violence and perhaps explosions in many locations, the source said.

They would use the farm trucks to block traffic and mass outside military bases and state offices to force them to stop functioning.

The red shirts did not rule out the possibility of copying the yellow-shirt group's tactics, including seizing government offices as well as Suvarnabhumi Airport, the source said.

The bottom line was to stir a chaotic situation until the government loses control, he said.

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-- The Nation 2010-03-09

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It's not going to work as planned.

Ok, maybe a bunch of people will show up, but the existing government will be fine after the dust settles. Have there been reports of payments for attending?

The Abhisit government is legit and decent. There's no real groundswell against him and his administration. It's another last-ditch and desperate means for an extremely selfish man to try and put his hands back on big money and absolute power.

I see the OP photo of Thaksin with the words "Thailand needs change" He's trying to copy Obama's success with that line. Yes, Thailand needs change, it needs to get good people in leadership roles, and get away from the ugly patterns of having people like Thaksin in the driver's seat. Thailand needs to change being so tolerable to treasonous people like Thaksin. It needs to change being so forgiving to Thaksin's puppets, like Sae Daeng, who toss explosives here and there.

The sooner Thailand changes from being harassed from Thaksin and his followers, the sooner Thailand can get moving forward to improving quality of life and cleaning up the environment and doing the many other things that have been put off because of the incessant hassling from Thaksin and his paid intimidators.

Edited by brahmburgers
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It's not going to work as planned.

Ok, maybe a bunch of people will show up, but the existing government will be fine after the dust settles. Have there been reports of payments for attending?

The Abhisit government is legit and decent. There's no real groundswell against him and his administration. It's another last-ditch and desperate means for an extremely selfish man to try and put his hands back on big money and absolute power.

I see the OP photo of Thaksin with the words "Thailand needs change" He's trying to copy Obama's success with that line. Yes, Thailand needs change, it needs to get good people in leadership roles, and get away from the ugly patterns of having people like Thaksin in the driver's seat. Thailand needs to change being so tolerable to treasonous people like Thaksin. It needs to change being so forgiving to Thaksin's puppets, like Sae Daeng, who toss explosives here and there.

The sooner Thailand changes from being harassed from Thaksin and his followers, the sooner Thailand can get moving forward to improving quality of life and cleaning up the environment and doing the many other things that have been put off because of the incessant hassling from Thaksin and his paid intimidators.

Yes, there was another thread here yesterday or so showing what the payments were. Something like 300B per person and a decent amount for the truck driver. No way they would get a large crowd if there was no money involved.

It's becoming a true circus...almost fun to read now. Except I need to visit Bangkok Saturday! May have to cancel that trip....

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It's not going to work as planned.

Ok, maybe a bunch of people will show up, but the existing government will be fine after the dust settles. Have there been reports of payments for attending?

The Abhisit government is legit and decent. There's no real groundswell against him and his administration. It's another last-ditch and desperate means for an extremely selfish man to try and put his hands back on big money and absolute power.

I see the OP photo of Thaksin with the words "Thailand needs change" He's trying to copy Obama's success with that line. Yes, Thailand needs change, it needs to get good people in leadership roles, and get away from the ugly patterns of having people like Thaksin in the driver's seat. Thailand needs to change being so tolerable to treasonous people like Thaksin. It needs to change being so forgiving to Thaksin's puppets, like Sae Daeng, who toss explosives here and there.

The sooner Thailand changes from being harassed from Thaksin and his followers, the sooner Thailand can get moving forward to improving quality of life and cleaning up the environment and doing the many other things that have been put off because of the incessant hassling from Thaksin and his paid intimidators.

Yet another diatribe repeated incessantly here on TV to distract from that fact that the majority of Thais want Democracy and equality for all Thais and not just the chosen elites. The rabid words are always the same, almost as if an automated note writer were producing them.

We should all reject this kind of propoganda. We need to re-establish a civil discourse.

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why do non thai posters seem to be negative about the supporters of thaksin, like him or not these are ordinary people for whom the previous regime was of benefit so they like and support him and his policy.

i really dont know if he was good or bad when compared to others but i do know that those wearing yellow shirts are anti democracy as they have stated so the question is, if the choice is to have a vote or not to have a vote, who would you vote for?

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How to paralyze such a large city? By Stopping food and water getting in?

everything over 150 000 is critical mass. Easy to paralyze the city.

in case of one million, hmm concentrated in key areas, is the end for Bangkok.

I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

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A possible scenario which no one considers here is the fall of the Abhisit government in parliament - about a month ago there was speculation that Sanan from Chat Thai Pattana, one of the Democrat's coalition partners, may be the person who Puea Thai nominates as the PM candidate in the upcoming no-confidence debate vote.

The red shirts would be mere bystanders and the pressure on the street to attack the current government with peaceful but effective means from two fronts.

If this scenario plays out and any violence should occur it is surely government / army sponsored to create the pretext fro a coup if the government should fall in parliament through a no confidence motion.

*rest of post removed, see reasons below*

Edited by cdnvic
Unable to determine what is the poster's comments, and what is a third party's quoted comments as no source is clearly cited or linked.
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A possible scenario which no one considers here is the fall of the Abhisit government in parliament - about a month ago there was speculation that Sanan from Chat Thai Pattana, one of the Democrat's coalition partners, may be the person who Puea Thai nominates as the PM candidate in the upcoming no-confidence debate vote.

The red shirts would be mere bystanders and the pressure on the street to attack the current government with peaceful but effective means from two fronts.

If this scenario plays out and any violence should occur it is surely government / army sponsored to create the pretext fro a coup if the government should fall in parliament through a no confidence motion.

If PTP managed to find a legitimate way through the parliament to oust Abhisit, I don't believe for one second that the army would allow it to happen.

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How to paralyze such a large city? By Stopping food and water getting in?

everything over 150 000 is critical mass. Easy to paralyze the city.

in case of one million, hmm concentrated in key areas, is the end for Bangkok.

I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

If it is going to be the yellows dressed in red that will be doing all the violence, then I would expect to see the red 'security guards' dealing with these reds dressed as yellows. That's the only way to show that they are not actually reds.

Edited by anotherpeter
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A possible scenario which no one considers here is the fall of the Abhisit government in parliament - about a month ago there was speculation that Sanan from Chat Thai Pattana, one of the Democrat's coalition partners, may be the person who Puea Thai nominates as the PM candidate in the upcoming no-confidence debate vote.

The red shirts would be mere bystanders and the pressure on the street to attack the current government with peaceful but effective means from two fronts.

If this scenario plays out and any violence should occur it is surely government / army sponsored to create the pretext fro a coup if the government should fall in parliament through a no confidence motion.

*rest of post removed, see reasons below*

I am posting it again this time with source / quote and unquote

A possible scenario which no one considers here is the fall of the Abhisit government in parliament - about a month ago there was speculation that Sanan from Chat Thai Pattana, one of the Democrat's coalition partners, may be the person who Puea Thai nominates as the PM candidate in the upcoming no-confidence debate vote.

The red shirts would be mere bystanders and the pressure on the street to attack the current government with peaceful but effective means from two fronts. If this scenario plays out and any violence should occur it is surely government / army sponsored to create the pretext fro a coup if the government should fall in parliament through a no confidence motion.

As blogged by Bangkok Pundit then:

source Asian correspondent Bangkok Pundit blog

Quote:

“In the upcoming no-confidence debate, the government can change if there is a vote of no-confidence in the PM.

Puea Thai will lead it and are meant to provide the name of the new PM. Puea Thai have about 189 MPs, Chat Thai Pattana about 25, and Bhum Jai Thai about 33. Then you have Pracharaj and some other MPs part of other coalition parties, but more closely aligned with Puea Thai totalling about 15-20. This gets you around 260 MPs out of 480 MPs which is a majority, although they may want to pick up 10 MPs to give them a clearer majority. Now, one way to convince Chat Thai Pattana to leave the government would be for Puea Thai to choose of the Chat Thai Pattana MPs, namely Sanan, to be PM. Then, if you get Bhum Jai Thai onboard - Abhisit is gone. This still seems unlikely although certainly not impossible as both Chat Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai are not happy with the Democrats. Whether they would leave the government is a different matter, but above is a path on how it might happen.

Why Sanan? He was Secretary-General of the Democrats and Interior Minister under Chuan. He can hardly be attacked as some Thaksin lackey then.”

Thanong of The Nation believes it will happen in a new post of his entitled "A secret plot to support Maj Gen Sanan as new PM"

On March 14, the Puea Thai Party plans to launch a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Thaksin Shinawatra, who still musters control over this party, already has secret support from Banharn Silapa-archa, the leader of the Chat Thai Pattana. Newin Chidchob of the Bhumjai Thai is also ready to jump ship to join this new coalition. The no-confidence motion will take place while the Red Shirts' rallies are going on in full steam. Several hundred thousands of Red Shirts would be blocking Bangkok and planning mass rally to topple the Abhisit government.

Chalerm Yoobamrung will be left in the cold. His recent squabbles with Jae Noi, Sudarat Keyuraphand, for control of Pheu Thai, are not going any where. It is a sideshow.

We have to see whether it is possible for the Pheu Thai, with support from the defected coalition partners, to resort to parliamentary tactics to throw out Abhisit from the premiership. Then it would propose Maj Gen Sanan as the next PM -- not Chalerm

unquote

- senior Chat Thai Pattana figures have been going on the record to deny this – but note that no Chat Thai Pattana Ministers will be facing a no-confidence vote!

so watch out for who will be proposed as the PM before the no confident motion and you will most likely know what will play out.

It now all depends on what has been going on behind the scenes and who has been promised what - there is no loyalty in Thai politics – and some coalition partners are already unhappy with the democrats – the money is not flowing as predicted – if you know what I mean. Yes fighting corruption in this country can cost you – after all most of the players in Thai politics are in it for the money and nothing else – so loyalties can shift quickly. (see Newin ) The yellow shirts can then cry foul “non-elected” government like the reds do now – only difference is the democrats can not win an election – the reds would go for a democratic election and win –Thaksin is pardoned and gets back all his money – and Anupong can go packing and apply for asylum abroad or stages a coup - cunning plan don’t you think so?

What we might see on the 14th or 15th is a peacefully toppled government in parliament with added pressure from the red shirts on the streets - or a coup - or both.

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How to paralyze such a large city? By Stopping food and water getting in?

everything over 150 000 is critical mass. Easy to paralyze the city. in case of one million, hmm concentrated in key areas, is the end for Bangkok. I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

What a bunch of pap smear. Do you work for the Nation newspaper? "the end of Bangkok" "the city will be doomed" ooooooouuuu. Have you been watching too many Godzilla movies. Actually, the Godzilla writers had a meeting and decided to end the series because they had simply run out of ideas. I think the doom and gloomers, including the Nation writers, have run out of ideas also.

There will be some tussles in Bangkok. Maybe some tear gas canisters thrown, maybe some rubber bullets causing some black and blue marks on some red butts. oooooooooeeeeeee.

But the sky won't fall on Bangkok. It will be the same bustling, dirty, smog-choked city next week. And Abhisit will come back from Australia and get back to his chores. And Thaksin will continue trying to cause as much mischief as a meglamaniacal loser can cause. So what's all the fuss?

Stay out of Bkk and watch the show on TV. Maybe we'll even get entertained by Thaksin being interviewed, like Black Songkran. Expect him to say there are slayings of Reds by police (there weren't last April and there won't be next Friday) and that any mayhem by Red Shirts is really being cause by Yellows dressed in red shirts, ......and other lies and nonsense which Thaksin is renown for.

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I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

Despite increasingly-desperate attempts, to blame the PAD/NPP for any trouble which may occur, I've yet to see any actual evidence for their wishing/planning to get involved.

And if they're not involved, why should the government wish to indict them, for anything ? :)

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Yet again a picture of Thaksin to support the post and the crowd is old women. If you want to spread fear at least work on getting photo's of red clad mobs with clubs and guns and stop using what look like Kenny Rogers fan club crowds :)

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I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

Despite increasingly-desperate attempts, to blame the PAD/NPP for any trouble which may occur, I've yet to see any actual evidence for their wishing/planning to get involved.

And if they're not involved, why should the government wish to indict them, for anything ? :)

The fact that they caused a huge amount of damage to the country by getting the airports shutdown is one reason. Also, for the damage they did to the government buildings while they were occupying them.

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A possible scenario which no one considers here is the fall of the Abhisit government in parliament - about a month ago there was speculation that Sanan from Chat Thai Pattana, one of the Democrat's coalition partners, may be the person who Puea Thai nominates as the PM candidate in the upcoming no-confidence debate vote.

The red shirts would be mere bystanders and the pressure on the street to attack the current government with peaceful but effective means from two fronts.

If this scenario plays out and any violence should occur it is surely government / army sponsored to create the pretext fro a coup if the government should fall in parliament through a no confidence motion.

*rest of post removed, see reasons below*

I am posting it again this time with source / quote and unquote

A possible scenario which no one considers here is the fall of the Abhisit government in parliament - about a month ago there was speculation that Sanan from Chat Thai Pattana, one of the Democrat's coalition partners, may be the person who Puea Thai nominates as the PM candidate in the upcoming no-confidence debate vote.

The red shirts would be mere bystanders and the pressure on the street to attack the current government with peaceful but effective means from two fronts. If this scenario plays out and any violence should occur it is surely government / army sponsored to create the pretext fro a coup if the government should fall in parliament through a no confidence motion.

As blogged by Bangkok Pundit then:

source Asian correspondent Bangkok Pundit blog

Quote:

“In the upcoming no-confidence debate, the government can change if there is a vote of no-confidence in the PM.

Puea Thai will lead it and are meant to provide the name of the new PM. Puea Thai have about 189 MPs, Chat Thai Pattana about 25, and Bhum Jai Thai about 33. Then you have Pracharaj and some other MPs part of other coalition parties, but more closely aligned with Puea Thai totalling about 15-20. This gets you around 260 MPs out of 480 MPs which is a majority, although they may want to pick up 10 MPs to give them a clearer majority. Now, one way to convince Chat Thai Pattana to leave the government would be for Puea Thai to choose of the Chat Thai Pattana MPs, namely Sanan, to be PM. Then, if you get Bhum Jai Thai onboard - Abhisit is gone. This still seems unlikely although certainly not impossible as both Chat Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai are not happy with the Democrats. Whether they would leave the government is a different matter, but above is a path on how it might happen.

Why Sanan? He was Secretary-General of the Democrats and Interior Minister under Chuan. He can hardly be attacked as some Thaksin lackey then.”

Thanong of The Nation believes it will happen in a new post of his entitled "A secret plot to support Maj Gen Sanan as new PM"

On March 14, the Puea Thai Party plans to launch a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Thaksin Shinawatra, who still musters control over this party, already has secret support from Banharn Silapa-archa, the leader of the Chat Thai Pattana. Newin Chidchob of the Bhumjai Thai is also ready to jump ship to join this new coalition. The no-confidence motion will take place while the Red Shirts' rallies are going on in full steam. Several hundred thousands of Red Shirts would be blocking Bangkok and planning mass rally to topple the Abhisit government.

Chalerm Yoobamrung will be left in the cold. His recent squabbles with Jae Noi, Sudarat Keyuraphand, for control of Pheu Thai, are not going any where. It is a sideshow.

We have to see whether it is possible for the Pheu Thai, with support from the defected coalition partners, to resort to parliamentary tactics to throw out Abhisit from the premiership. Then it would propose Maj Gen Sanan as the next PM -- not Chalerm

unquote

- senior Chat Thai Pattana figures have been going on the record to deny this – but note that no Chat Thai Pattana Ministers will be facing a no-confidence vote!

so watch out for who will be proposed as the PM before the no confident motion and you will most likely know what will play out.

It now all depends on what has been going on behind the scenes and who has been promised what - there is no loyalty in Thai politics – and some coalition partners are already unhappy with the democrats – the money is not flowing as predicted – if you know what I mean. Yes fighting corruption in this country can cost you – after all most of the players in Thai politics are in it for the money and nothing else – so loyalties can shift quickly. (see Newin ) The yellow shirts can then cry foul “non-elected” government like the reds do now – only difference is the democrats can not win an election – the reds would go for a democratic election and win –Thaksin is pardoned and gets back all his money – and Anupong can go packing and apply for asylum abroad or stages a coup - cunning plan don’t you think so?

What we might see on the 14th or 15th is a peacefully toppled government in parliament with added pressure from the red shirts on the streets - or a coup - or both.

Nice post cnx, it certainly sounds plausible, and whilst I want to see justice served for the sake of Thailand's future, peace and stability is just as important.

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never mind all of us in pattaya will carry on as we always do because nothing affects us anyway apart from the one thing we fear above all else----------------bar closing time !!

Thats a great idea...Pattaya here I come... book me a woom with a view..!!!

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I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

Despite increasingly-desperate attempts, to blame the PAD/NPP for any trouble which may occur, I've yet to see any actual evidence for their wishing/planning to get involved.

And if they're not involved, why should the government wish to indict them, for anything ? :)

The fact that they caused a huge amount of damage to the country by getting the airports shutdown is one reason. Also, for the damage they did to the government buildings while they were occupying them.

Excuse me, I mistook this for a thread about Red Shirt Plans to Paralyse Bangkok & Topple Thai Government, not the re-hash of events a couple of years ago. :D

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why do non thai posters seem to be negative about the supporters of thaksin, like him or not these are ordinary people for whom the previous regime was of benefit so they like and support him and his policy.

i really dont know if he was good or bad when compared to others but i do know that those wearing yellow shirts are anti democracy as they have stated so the question is, if the choice is to have a vote or not to have a vote, who would you vote for?

Suggest you do some more detailed reserach about the thaksin era, and also suggest you think more about the longer-term perspective of how to achieve a better quality of life for all Thais.

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never mind all of us in pattaya will carry on as we always do because nothing affects us anyway apart from the one thing we fear above all else----------------bar closing time !!

Thats a great idea...Pattaya here I come... book me a woom with a view..!!!

intentional spelling mistake? :)

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why do non thai posters seem to be negative about the supporters of thaksin, like him or not these are ordinary people for whom the previous regime was of benefit so they like and support him and his policy.

i really dont know if he was good or bad when compared to others but i do know that those wearing yellow shirts are anti democracy as they have stated so the question is, if the choice is to have a vote or not to have a vote, who would you vote for?

Suggest you do some more detailed reserach about the thaksin era, and also suggest you think more about the longer-term perspective of how to achieve a better quality of life for all Thais.

I agree with you...and saw this link on Wikipedia. Pretty good background info all of us should read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shinawatra

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why do non thai posters seem to be negative about the supporters of thaksin, like him or not these are ordinary people for whom the previous regime was of benefit so they like and support him and his policy.

i really dont know if he was good or bad when compared to others but i do know that those wearing yellow shirts are anti democracy as they have stated so the question is, if the choice is to have a vote or not to have a vote, who would you vote for?

Obviously your house is in your wifes name also...Get a brain... sometimes better to keep your mouth shut and just let people think you are an idiot, than to open it and give them proof...

quote: "....but i do know that those wearing yellow shirts are anti democracy ...."

Maybe you'd like to recheck your facts on this point.

Or perhaps you follow the black or white appraoch - the reds claim to be democracy fighters (what a laugh) therefore the yellow are anti- democracy.

Suggest you expand your thinking quite a lot.

Edited by scorecard
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I personally expect not more than 30 000 but amongst them lots of undercover violence which are not red at all, but yellow. If the government fails to indict the yellow leaders within days the city will be doomed.

Despite increasingly-desperate attempts, to blame the PAD/NPP for any trouble which may occur, I've yet to see any actual evidence for their wishing/planning to get involved.

And if they're not involved, why should the government wish to indict them, for anything ? :)

1. because you don't see them in the yellow friendly media, doesn't mean that they're not up to something. They need to be indicted for their committed crimes.

Barking dogs don't bite, what about the deafening silence of the silent ones, even we all know they are still alive? After all their energies displayed, and the world has seen it, do you think they're relaxing in a spa now?

2. Seh Daeng, a buddy to stir the pot for both, with one main concern to save the yellows from being brought to justice. If Thaksin slips through it, well, that can be dealt later since he's already sentenced and more to come. So both, Thaksin and yellow bet on the same horse, whereas for the later is little or no chance to to get away with it, even when the reds topple the government.

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why do non thai posters seem to be negative about the supporters of thaksin, like him or not these are ordinary people for whom the previous regime was of benefit so they like and support him and his policy.

i really dont know if he was good or bad when compared to others but i do know that those wearing yellow shirts are anti democracy as they have stated so the question is, if the choice is to have a vote or not to have a vote, who would you vote for?

Obviously your house is in your wifes name also...Get a brain... sometimes better to keep your mouth shut and just let people think you are an idiot, than to open it and give them proof...

good reply, very constructive.

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