PM Abhisit Announces Next Election Will Be Held On Nov 14

[way2muchcoffee]

Don't need to negotiate -

He shouldn't need to negotiate that is true, but he is being held to ransom but a minority group who have taken over parts of Bangkok and which includes a number of extremely violent people. The army and the police have shown themselves to be weak and unable to do their jobs. As such, Abhisit has no choice but to negotiate. Nothing to do with his leadership qualities. Everything to do with him having to work with a disfunctional state.

joking aside you were all for 'cracking' down and being decisive now you're all calling for negotiating and moderation - strange...

If by "cracking down" you mean enforcing law and order, yes i was for that. As i say though, the people responsible for enforcing law and order have shown themselves incapable, and so hence why negotiation and moderation is the only other option for Abhisit, besides simply standing down and letting Thaksin and his red chums take this country over by force.

Thanks for a well thought out reply - I guess I'm slightly (don't get too excited) warming to your theme, however, I still hold true to the principal (even within this dysfunctional 'hole') that 'if' he had laid out a well-though out plan with dates and timeline much of this 'may' not have happened - and if it did he should have shut off all supplies and utilities - over within a week.

So 8/10 for management/PR and all that jazz but 2/10 for leadership in a crisis - a completely different thing calling for a completely different leadership style.

Impossible. Thousands of innocent people if not tens of thousands live in the occupied territory. You can't shut off power to the area. You can't prevent people coming in and out.

[rixalex]

Impossible. Thousands of innocent people if not tens of thousands live in the occupied territory. You can't shut off power to the area. You can't prevent people coming in and out.

Yes, a lot of these types of ideas sound brilliant when you first hear them, but when you think through the logistics of implementing them, you realise it is a lot more complicated than you perhaps first thought.

Abhisit might be many things but stupid he is not. If there was an easy way of removing these people he would have already taken it.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Impossible. Thousands of innocent people if not tens of thousands live in the occupied territory. You can't shut off power to the area. You can't prevent people coming in and out.

Yes, a lot of these types of ideas sound brilliant when you first hear them, but when you think through the logistics of implementing them, you realise it is a lot more complicated than you perhaps first thought.

Abhisit might be many things but stupid he is not. If there was an easy way of removing these people he would have already taken it.

Not sure that's right - they also didn't cut the airport off - nothing to do with it cannot be done - electricity is 'zoned' and they could have stopped water etc. going in and out - trust me where's there's a will there's a way - Abhisit is not a 'crisis' leader - he just isn't

[rixalex]

Not sure that's right - they also didn't cut the airport off - nothing to do with it cannot be done - electricity is 'zoned' and they could have stopped water etc. going in and out - trust me where's there's a will there's a way - Abhisit is not a 'crisis' leader - he just isn't

Didn't say it couldn't be done. Said it wasn't practical.

The airport it would have been easier to implement, but the current protests are in the middle of a highly populated area, which makes the situation much more complex.

P.S. yes i think we have established your feelings on Abhisit's leadership qualities, without need for endless repeats

[Jingthing]

Of course, what red shirt apologist doesn't take every opportunity to diss Abhisit? They truly can't help it.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Of course, what red shirt apologist doesn't take every opportunity to diss Abhisit? They truly can't help it.

he does it on his own without much commentary from me 'by their fruits etc.'

[ChiangMaiFun]

Not sure that's right - they also didn't cut the airport off - nothing to do with it cannot be done - electricity is 'zoned' and they could have stopped water etc. going in and out - trust me where's there's a will there's a way - Abhisit is not a 'crisis' leader - he just isn't

Didn't say it couldn't be done. Said it wasn't practical.

The airport it would have been easier to implement, but the current protests are in the middle of a highly populated area, which makes the situation much more complex.

P.S. yes i think we have established your feelings on Abhisit's leadership qualities, without need for endless repeats

You're missing my point - there is NO WILL to do it

[rixalex]

Not sure that's right - they also didn't cut the airport off - nothing to do with it cannot be done - electricity is 'zoned' and they could have stopped water etc. going in and out - trust me where's there's a will there's a way - Abhisit is not a 'crisis' leader - he just isn't

Didn't say it couldn't be done. Said it wasn't practical.

The airport it would have been easier to implement, but the current protests are in the middle of a highly populated area, which makes the situation much more complex.

P.S. yes i think we have established your feelings on Abhisit's leadership qualities, without need for endless repeats

You're missing my point - there is NO WILL to do it

Au contraire mon frere.

You are missing my point.

[bendejo]

Y'know, this guy could be the coolest, most patient mo-fo I've come across in a long time. His weapon is his lack of response, it drives the opponents nuts. The leaders are well ready to strangle each other, the sorry SOBs out there in the elements all day are tired of it, nothing to do but cheer every once in a while, having to hear all that prattle, I think lots have their bus fare handy, works in his favor. I'm sure he's been praying for rain as well. If this comes off without another April 10th type confrontation this guy could end up with the Nobel Peace Prize.

I'm waiting for something stupid with the munitions, like someone lighting a cig near a molatov or a lad who's had too much M-150 shooting a grenade off within the compound. I think the hospital incident was something like this, the PM wielding boredom as a strategic weapon. I wonder what would happen if there was a fire within their fortress: no firefighting vehicles would be able to get in, and they may have trouble getting out due to their own constructions.

Reds to propose their own roadmap in next few days

Flat earth?

Edited May 8, 2010 by bendejo

[jdinasia]

Yes I suppose 'won' is emotive - so I'll stop using it - but my view holds that if Abhisit (forget about all the tenatative 'offerings') had made a definitive, bold and exact plan it would have helped tremendously and taken the wind out of the reds sails.. and he didn't - he huffed and puffed and DID NOT blow the house down.

Negotiation isn't about making definitive, bold and exact plans - otherwise it wouldn't be negotiation - just one man laying down the rules. It's about exchanging ideas and reaching a compromise. That was what Abhisit was hoping to do. When the reds deserted the negotiation table, he hoped that their protests would remain peaceful and in the meantime, he could pursuade them back for more discussions. Sadly this didn't happen. For this i blame the reds. Their ronin friends destroyed the peace and the red leaders defiantly stuck to their unreasonable demands.

Don't need to negotiate - he's PM but behaving like he's a man with no mandate - hey wait a minute he doesn't have a mandate! but joking aside you were all for 'cracking' down and being decisive now you're all calling for negotiating and moderation - strange...

Hmmmm

backing by more than 50% of the MP's elected to parliamen = a mandate. Strange now that you are taking the side promoting violence!

If you had been in Thailand longer and understood how Thais think then you would understand that appearing to be flexible, patient, and compassionate is the ONLY alternative to being violent. If you are against negotiations ("don't need to negotiate") then you want a crackdown.

Wait ---- are you suggesting he should have just said from the very beginning "This is the way it is!", He did that and the reds didn't listen. Instead they made sure that their protest hurt Thailand. They moved to rachprasong and upped the violent rhetoric. There was 2 options, go in and take the leaders --- a very violent option --- and disperse the crowd. The second option was wait them out, appear reasonable and patient, let the reds do stupid things like raid hospitals and firebomb army headquarters, then give them an offer that let's them save face whilst giving them nothing they asked for. It worked --- some people claimed it was a red win!

Now we see that the offer wasn't what THAKSIN needs --- real reds interested in an election get what they want. Thaksin doesn't get the army reshuffle, the budget, or the constitution reform. Strange --- now we see more grenades (Sae Daeng's specialty!)

[jdinasia]

Not sure that's right - they also didn't cut the airport off - nothing to do with it cannot be done - electricity is 'zoned' and they could have stopped water etc. going in and out - trust me where's there's a will there's a way - Abhisit is not a 'crisis' leader - he just isn't

Didn't say it couldn't be done. Said it wasn't practical.

The airport it would have been easier to implement, but the current protests are in the middle of a highly populated area, which makes the situation much more complex.

P.S. yes i think we have established your feelings on Abhisit's leadership qualities, without need for endless repeats

The airport fiasco goes to the Red leadership after all it was PPP that was in charge at the time.

Cutting off power to the airport would have done what? They had generators AND fuel AND plenty of supplies at the airport. That the PAD didn't rampage through the airport and that it was able to open almost immediately when they left goes to their credit.

[jdinasia]

Hopefully, the more moderate people among the Reds, Yellows and the Govt. will be able to push the roadmap through without further violence. I, for one, have my fingers crossed, but the violence from last night (whether from Sae Dang's group or from some previously inactive PAD extremists) and the thousands of new Reds arriving today are not good signs.

Here is a map showing the geographic results of the last general election:

Obviously, the North, Issan and the South are pretty much going to vote the same way in the next election. The big question is, will the ongoing Red protest result in more blue in central Thailand or more red? Quite, frankly, I don't think we will know the answer until November.

Looking at the graphic people backing the Dems MIGHT be nervous. It doesn't show the groups like Newin's that backed the PPP then and left later though. The recent poll done in Isaan showed a 50/50 split in wanting to dissolve parliament immediately and that shows a breakdown in the TRT/PPP/PTP model without even counting the groups in Buriram etc that are no longer follwing Thaksin's lead.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Not sure that's right - they also didn't cut the airport off - nothing to do with it cannot be done - electricity is 'zoned' and they could have stopped water etc. going in and out - trust me where's there's a will there's a way - Abhisit is not a 'crisis' leader - he just isn't

Didn't say it couldn't be done. Said it wasn't practical.

The airport it would have been easier to implement, but the current protests are in the middle of a highly populated area, which makes the situation much more complex.

P.S. yes i think we have established your feelings on Abhisit's leadership qualities, without need for endless repeats

The airport fiasco goes to the Red leadership after all it was PPP that was in charge at the time.

Cutting off power to the airport would have done what? They had generators AND fuel AND plenty of supplies at the airport. That the PAD didn't rampage through the airport and that it was able to open almost immediately when they left goes to their credit.

'their credit'? in the immortal words of John McEnroe 'you can't be serious' - I won't even bother rebuffing this as it's bizarre that you would defend such an outrageous act against an international airport and all the problems for tourism and visitors it caused.

[Robby nz]

If you look at the percentages on the map and not just the pretty colours you will see that there are few places that got over 60% red backing and remember this was achieved with bribery and intimidation, if somehow that can be taken out of the equasion and given the loss of support the reds have achieved through their own stupid actions it is very likely they would suffer a resounding loss in an election.

As an example where I live there was a TRT MP in Thaksins time now with him up on the red stage he darent even show his face here, there is no way now that people here would vote in a red supporting MP.

The reds would get some support like the lady who makes curry down at the market, she has just got back 2 days ago from a months holiday (her word) in BKK with the reds, says it was great didnt have to cook and got 1000b a day

Edited May 9, 2010 by Robby nz

[justasken]

If you look at the percentages on the map and not just the pretty colours you will see that there are few places that got over 60% red backing and remember this was achieved with bribery and intimidation, if somehow that can be taken out of the equasion and given the loss of support the reds have achieved through their own stupid actions it is very likely they would suffer a resounding loss in an election.

As an example where I live there was a TRT MP in Thaksins time now with him up on the red stage he darent even show his face here, there is no way now that people here would vote in a red supporting MP.

The reds would get some support like the lady who makes curry down at the market, she has just got back 2 days ago from a months holiday (her word) in BKK with the reds, says it was great didnt have to cook and got 1000b a day

Maybe you are not aware of the fact that in a parliamentary system with 6 or 7 partys on the ballot, as in Thailand, that getting even 50% of the votes assures a party of an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

Last free election, Thai Love Thai had 75% of the Parliament.

I can assure you, that if there is an election, that the reds will dominate.

That is precisely why we have had no real election since Thaksan was taken out in a coup.

The real news here today is the fact that the Americans had an assistant Secretary of State meeting with the reds.

Likely they were asked questions about what they would do if they were to get ful power? Obama is wondering. This means he is open to throwing his support behind the reds if he should see the group in charge as being for a real and true democracy.

There is a story out today saying that the true negotiations are pushing toward a change in the Constitution. One that would remove non-elected people from all power in the government.

For sure, Obama being involved cannot be a good sign for the NON-reds.

It could be worse though.

It could be Hillary Clinton.

She would be a real kick in the rump.

Things are moving and one might want to negotiate rather than risk losing it all.

[schmutzie]

Forgive me, but I haven't bothered to read all 39 pages...

Has anyone discussed or brought up the point that the November date is probably the lowest he can go so as to accommodate Anupong's reshuffle/replacement?

Also, I'd really like to read some more specific details of the road map. This is in effect his election manifesto - is there a version somewhere (in English) that goes beyond the bullet points? I'm sceptic of how anyone can propose to fundamentally change a society within a 6 month time frame. Whilst the intention might be there, it just doesn't seem feasible. We're talking major reformation of public institutions and investments (again, I need to see read the details of the proposal) on a grand scale (where will the money come from?).

What he has set out to do seems more like what a government would propose to accomplish over 4 years or more.

As long as the plan/manifesto does not include some way to begin the process of disassembling army influence from businesses and political life, I don't see how much will change. And I don't see how, from his current position, that he'll be able to do that. In fact, the first point of the road map seems to reinforce the role of the army?

I'm not against the proposal per se. I just would like to know the actual practical steps it proposes.

Edited May 10, 2010 by schmutzie

[whybother]

If you look at the percentages on the map and not just the pretty colours you will see that there are few places that got over 60% red backing and remember this was achieved with bribery and intimidation, if somehow that can be taken out of the equasion and given the loss of support the reds have achieved through their own stupid actions it is very likely they would suffer a resounding loss in an election.

As an example where I live there was a TRT MP in Thaksins time now with him up on the red stage he darent even show his face here, there is no way now that people here would vote in a red supporting MP.

The reds would get some support like the lady who makes curry down at the market, she has just got back 2 days ago from a months holiday (her word) in BKK with the reds, says it was great didnt have to cook and got 1000b a day

Maybe you are not aware of the fact that in a parliamentary system with 6 or 7 partys on the ballot, as in Thailand, that getting even 50% of the votes assures a party of an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

Last free election, Thai Love Thai had 75% of the Parliament.

I can assure you, that if there is an election, that the reds will dominate.

That is precisely why we have had no real election since Thaksan was taken out in a coup.

The real news here today is the fact that the Americans had an assistant Secretary of State meeting with the reds.

Likely they were asked questions about what they would do if they were to get ful power? Obama is wondering. This means he is open to throwing his support behind the reds if he should see the group in charge as being for a real and true democracy.

There is a story out today saying that the true negotiations are pushing toward a change in the Constitution. One that would remove non-elected people from all power in the government.

For sure, Obama being involved cannot be a good sign for the NON-reds.

It could be worse though.

It could be Hillary Clinton.

She would be a real kick in the rump.

Things are moving and one might want to negotiate rather than risk losing it all.

Actually, in the last "free" election (2006), TRT got 92% of the parliament. They couldn't get the other 8% even with no opposition. They also got quite a few seats by paying other parties to be "an opposition".

Maybe you aren't counting this election as "free" considering the Thaksin controlled EC set the polling booths so that the voters were in clear view and their paid for votes could be checked.

Can you please fill me in on why you think the 2007 election wasn't "free"? Is it because a lot of corrupt politicians had been banned, or did the military junta force people to vote against the PPP?

Maybe you don't consider the 2006 and 2007 elections "free", because so many votes were paid for that it was actually quite expensive.

[Valentine]

Forgive me, but I haven't bothered to read all 39 pages...

Has anyone discussed or brought up the point that the November date is probably the lowest he can go so as to accommodate Anupong's reshuffle/replacement?

Also, I'd really like to read some more specific details of the road map. This is in effect his election manifesto - is there a version somewhere (in English) that goes beyond the bullet points? I'm sceptic of how anyone can propose to fundamentally change a society within a 6 month time frame. Whilst the intention might be there, it just doesn't seem feasible. We're talking major reformation of public institutions and investments (again, I need to see read the details of the proposal) on a grand scale (where will the money come from?).

What he has set out to do seems more like what a government would propose to accomplish over 4 years or more.

As long as the plan/manifesto does not include some way to begin the process of disassembling army influence from businesses and political life, I don't see how much will change. And I don't see how, from his current position, that he'll be able to do that. In fact, the first point of the road map seems to reinforce the role of the army?

I'm not against the proposal per se. I just would like to know the actual practical steps it proposes.

I think a lot of good changes are in place already, they are just not well publicized. The Dems seem to be living in the dark ages when it comes to PR.

[whybother]

Forgive me, but I haven't bothered to read all 39 pages...

Has anyone discussed or brought up the point that the November date is probably the lowest he can go so as to accommodate Anupong's reshuffle/replacement?

Also, I'd really like to read some more specific details of the road map. This is in effect his election manifesto - is there a version somewhere (in English) that goes beyond the bullet points? I'm sceptic of how anyone can propose to fundamentally change a society within a 6 month time frame. Whilst the intention might be there, it just doesn't seem feasible. We're talking major reformation of public institutions and investments (again, I need to see read the details of the proposal) on a grand scale (where will the money come from?).

What he has set out to do seems more like what a government would propose to accomplish over 4 years or more.

As long as the plan/manifesto does not include some way to begin the process of disassembling army influence from businesses and political life, I don't see how much will change. And I don't see how, from his current position, that he'll be able to do that. In fact, the first point of the road map seems to reinforce the role of the army?

I'm not against the proposal per se. I just would like to know the actual practical steps it proposes.

It's a road map. A direction. Not much detail.

If anyone expects him (or anyone else) to be able to fix Thailands problems in 6 months, then they have no idea about Thailands problems.

The reds don't care about the issues. They just want elections so that they have a chance of being in control of the military reshuffle. That is why they won't accept the deal.

Abhisit knows they won't accept it, but he needs to work on the reds "issues" so that the standard poor farmer will stop believing the red propaganda.

At least Abhisit has a plan to fix the problems. The only plan the reds have is how to win an election. IF they win an election, they will just go back to the same cash handouts of the Thaksin government to keep the support of the poor, with no plans for long term fixes.

[Robby nz]

QUOTE (justasken @ 2010-05-10 07:25:02)

QUOTE (Robby nz @ 2010-05-09 12:13:07)

If you look at the percentages on the map and not just the pretty colours you will see that there are few places that got over 60% red backing and remember this was achieved with bribery and intimidation, if somehow that can be taken out of the equasion and given the loss of support the reds have achieved through their own stupid actions it is very likely they would suffer a resounding loss in an election.

As an example where I live there was a TRT MP in Thaksins time now with him up on the red stage he darent even show his face here, there is no way now that people here would vote in a red supporting MP.

The reds would get some support like the lady who makes curry down at the market, she has just got back 2 days ago from a months holiday (her word) in BKK with the reds, says it was great didnt have to cook and got 1000b a day

Maybe you are not aware of the fact that in a parliamentary system with 6 or 7 partys on the ballot, as in Thailand, that getting even 50% of the votes assures a party of an overwhelming majority in Parliament.

Last free election, Thai Love Thai had 75% of the Parliament.

I can assure you, that if there is an election, that the reds will dominate.

That is precisely why we have had no real election since Thaksan was taken out in a coup.

The real news here today is the fact that the Americans had an assistant Secretary of State meeting with the reds.

Likely they were asked questions about what they would do if they were to get ful power? Obama is wondering. This means he is open to throwing his support behind the reds if he should see the group in charge as being for a real and true democracy.

There is a story out today saying that the true negotiations are pushing toward a change in the Constitution. One that would remove non-elected people from all power in the government.

For sure, Obama being involved cannot be a good sign for the NON-reds.

It could be worse though.

It could be Hillary Clinton.

She would be a real kick in the rump.

Things are moving and one might want to negotiate rather than risk losing it all.

I am assuming that these percentages are of votes cast and not of number of eligable voters, could be wrong on that.

However looking at the Dems, percentages it would take a lot more of a swing away from them than it would from the now PTP to give the PTP a win and as the PTP seems to be the party of the reds and there is an obvious general dislike of the reds brought on by their actions it is unlikely they could get any new support without the usual bribery and intimidation.

Couple this with the PTP, reds having brought forward no ideas as to how to run, let alone improve the country. Their only idea appears to be to bring back Thaksin a sort of "We need his ideas because we have none".

If The PM can manage anything like free and fair elections with all candidates allowed to travel freely in their electorates and present their manafestos and bribery and intimidation can be kept to at least a minimum. Possibly with international observers, I dont see how a red backed party can have a chance.

An indication of how unprepared the reds are for an election is the time they have needed to give a 'response' to the PM.s road map that shows they have had nothing prepared in the way of ideas of where to go after their Demo is over.

I suspect they (up till 10th April) were so confident of getting what they were demanding they never gave gave a thought to 'where to from here'.

Anyway the PM was smart enough to include IF.s in the preposal and so far it looks like the reds may not accept all the IF.s and should they not accept we go back to the correct election date in 2011.

The problem is that should they not accept or put forward unacceptable "demands" (always demands) like amnesty from their crimes then where do we go from there?

Sure they havent thought that far ahead, maybe other than bring in another million like Weng promised, but only a couple of thousand turned up, others must have got lost along the way.

All the stuff about the US is being discussed on another thread so go there and post about that.