Thailand Tourism Industry To Recover In 6 Months

[webfact]

Tourism recovery in 6 months: Bandid

By Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

The central bank believes the tourism industry will recover in six months, based on past experience, and expects the economy to show improvement during the rest of the year, with five major indicators considered.

BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BOT) Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn yesterday listed the five factors as the global economic momentum, tourism recovery, drought conditions, trends in the policy interest rate and access to funding by small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs).

He said businesses, especially SMEs, must monitor these indicators closely, so they can adjust quickly to any situation.

Bandid made his remarks at a seminar entitled "Thai SMEs in the Era of a Free Asian Economy", hosted by Bangkok Bank.

He said the first factor was whether the global economy would enjoy a healthy recovery. The US economy has yet to pick up fully, while some European countries are experiencing publicdebt problems.

However, many Asian countries are seeing strong economic growth, so if the US and European economies do not pick up more in the second half, Thai exports will have to focus more on Asian markets.

The second factor is the tourism industry. It recovered in six months after the 2003 Sars epidemic, five months after the 2004 tsunami and seven months after the 200809 political turmoil. It is expected to take six months to recover from the latest round of political turmoil, but that will also depend on the global economy and government measures to entice tourists back to Thailand.

The third factor is the draught, and it remains to be seen how that will play out.

The fourth one is the policy interest rate, which has been kept at a low 1.25 per cent in a bid to boost economic recovery. Many times, the BOT has indicated that if the domestic economy recovers and the global economic crisis abates, it may consider increasing the rate at an appropriate time.

The fifth factor that could affect secondhalf economic growth is SMEs' loan accessibility. SMEs have yet to enjoy full access to loans, which means they still suffer a high cost burden. Bandid said many commercial banks had stepped in to help SMEs gain easier access to loans.

He believes the country's economy will grow 45 per cent this year.

Bandid said while Thailand's economy showed positive growth in the first quarter, the economy was affected in the second quarter by the political turmoil.

Tourism suffered severely from the chaos, but other key sectors were also hurt, such as agriculture, exports and real estate.

-- The Nation 2010-06-19

[SomTumTiger]

If there is no more trouble (and finding out who was paying the Red shirts will be a big factor in "No more trouble") then I am inclined to agree. People need cheap food, cheap hotels and cheap companionship. Thailand will be going strong once again.

[LuckyLew]

IMO opinion they are having a laugh and not a chance will it recover in 6 months, 6 years maybe

One catastrophe after another in the last 2-3 years and this one was the worst of the lot

If you were living outside of Thailand, would you bring your family here?

I wouldn't

[ukinbkk]

This thread is a joke right? I agree with the post that says 6 years (at best). The people living/running this country have their heads uo their <deleted>. There are so many problems in this country associated with tourists/holiday makers/expat's... Try treating people equally and not ripping them off time and time again.. Half the reason people aren't coming back here is because they are sick to the back teeth of the thai national sport- Let's steel from farang-

Edited June 19, 2010 by ukinbkk

[stevehaigh]

did anyone read this headline without laughing?

[warfie]

6 months from now? November... peak season anyway, so yeah, the tourism sector probably will look a lot healthier in November when compared to June... duh!

[yesdavy]

Perhaps, it is an arrogant state of denial for BoT to ignore that the same conditions that caused the recent unrest have not changed, and apart from some vague buzzwords like roadmap and reconcilliation, there is no evidence of any planning or steps toward changing the wine, not just the bottle.

[angiud]

I tend to agree, 6 month, maybe one year and the tourism will start to recover.

With the actual media system people tend to forget much more quickly (see the after bombs Bali example, twice in few years and now again in full power) so IMHO, if no more tsunamies, SARS, H1N1, yellow shirt, red shit shirt, tourists will start to flow like before.

Maybe less euro-americans, but more arabs, indian and asians.

[Thailand]

[losworld]

Personally I don't think it will ever recover fully. It's not just the danger factor associated with the unrest. It goes much deeper. Many foreigners have been forced to do a complete 360 on their views of Thailand and its people. Although most Thais are great people 5,000 paid thugs will change forever the way the world views the land of smiles.

No question over time things will stabilize and memories will fade but by this time Thailand's neighbors will have capitalized on Thailand's loss.

[LevelHead]

Wow - make a prediction that in the historic "high season" of December (6 months from now) that things will be better than now (June - low season).

Wonderful prediction.

Lets have lots of statistics to show that in December that visitor numbers are higher than June, that will really prove lots of things.

Thailand is a mess, its has no freedom of the media, it has a repressive decree in power limiting the rights of all people, its army and government are alleged to have been killing many civilians, it slams the foreign media as liars as they report the truth and not the propaganda and of course everyone is supposed to forget this ?

Thailand is not cheap now.

Its a place full of scams and rip off's,

Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia are all far better value in terms of service and value for money.

Burma should start advertising itself as a great place for tourists perhaps with the headline "We have the same freedoms as Thailand, so come here and forget the overpriced bahtland (and our people are more friendly and will not rip you off) "

[sarahsbloke]

Tourism to recover in 6 months ............ Hmmmmmmmm

The western world is broke, unemployment high, wages down.

Air fares to Thailand are two to three time what they were (2009 I paid 245UKP for a return LHR to BKK, 2010 cheapest was 650UKP)

The Baht is 20 percent more expensive (2009 I got 54Bht to 1 UKP, 2010 47bht to 1 UKP)

Western news portrayed Thailand as a war zone

None of Thailand's problems have been resolved

I don't think tourism will ever recover in Thailand, in fact I think it will get worse as new bookings are unlikely to be made.

UK travel agents don't advertise holidays to Thailand any more, and the Baht is not listed in UK currency exchange shops.

If I didn't have a Thai wife, I would have left last month.

Edited June 19, 2010 by sarahsbloke

[Lannatyne]

This report is almost as funny as Germany getting beat at the World Cup!

They seem to forget that, in those other disasters (SARS, Tsunami etc), people in the 'west' still had money to spend on long-haul trips to good-value destinations.

Now, this is very different. A fair number of Europeans are going to suffer financially for a long while, and they'll be looking for much better deals than Thailand and this strong baht can offer.

[chainarong]

I think getting the country back on track would be a wounderfull option, everyone I know back home wants to meet in Hong Kong, they wont have a bar of Thailand.

[warfie]

6 months from now? November... peak season anyway, so yeah, the tourism sector probably will look a lot healthier in November when compared to June... duh!

[livinthailandos]

Recover in 6 months - Hmmmm

I tend to be inbetween posts which is more or less

1.People do tend to forget things so its possible things will start to recover

2. I do believe that europe's ongoing financial mess from greece to possibly spain and portugal need to be watched after all the euro really hasn't stabilized. Germany might be in a good position but with out a Political Union in europe I don't see much progress for europe. Its still possible the euro will weaken further

3. As for the USA, things are not much better there, but as for tourists for thailand, Americans make up a very small tourist market for thailand.

4. I do not see any real true recovery in thailand, and the last 4 years show that things are not improving, I wouldn't be surprised next year if someting else happens again.

Until all thai people realize the need to work together and cooperate and improve all areas of thailand, there is no hope for this country.

[Hawk]

Its already recovered as I saw two tourists walking through the market, another drinking a coffee at Starbucks and yet another sitting in the park. My goodness the prediction is already working.

Edited June 19, 2010 by Hawk

[slapout]

Is this the man who proposed and implemented the 150 baht atm fee on foreign cards? Suggest that domestic airlines increase fares? Another Thai with the monopoly theory so prevalent here, but this time he forgot there is no Thai monopoly on incoming tourist. I think Thailand has entered a phase of diminishing returns on tourist investment.

This is a time for change in thinking and adaption to a new market share. It is a sick system at present with the scams, rip offs, dual prices, increase in prices, price fixing, same products as 10 year ago,(including some of the bar girls) etc. The man spouting this nonsense will probably not be in the International head hunters top 10 recruits.

[473geo]

Tourism to recover in 6 months ............ Hmmmmmmmm

The western world is broke, unemployment high, wages down.

Air fares to Thailand are two to three time what they were (2009 I paid 245UKP for a return LHR to BKK, 2010 cheapest was 650UKP)

The Baht is 20 percent more expensive (2009 I got 54Bht to 1 UKP, 2010 47bht to 1 UKP)

Western news portrayed Thailand as a war zone

None of Thailand's problems have been resolved

I don't think tourism will ever recover in Thailand, in fact I think it will get worse as new bookings are unlikely to be made.

UK travel agents don't advertise holidays to Thailand any more, and the Baht is not listed in UK currency exchange shops.

If I didn't have a Thai wife, I would have left last month.

Agree with your perception from a western view, but since 55% (Source: Tourism in Thailand) of tourists are from the relatively strong economies of Asian countries, an increase in tourists may well be expected from the Asia pacific region to offset a reduction of revenue from the west, so a recovery is not out of the question.

[frankie52]

Personally I don't think it will ever recover fully. It's not just the danger factor associated with the unrest. It goes much deeper. Many foreigners have been forced to do a complete 360 on their views of Thailand and its people. Although most Thais are great people 5,000 paid thugs will change forever the way the world views the land of smiles.

No question over time things will stabilize and memories will fade but by this time Thailand's neighbors will have capitalized on Thailand's loss.

"5,000 paid thugs " Is that a reference to the Tuk-Tuk mafia in Phuket?

[frankie52]

And I presume you've all read this article:-

The Destruction of Thailand's Global Brand - Newsweek

[473geo]

And I presume you've all read this article:-

The Destruction of Thailand's Global Brand - Newsweek

No, No, No, there is something wrong with that article......it cannot be legitimate........you see, it does not blame everthing on the fugitive, how can that be?

[needforspeed]

Tourism to recover in 6 months ............ Hmmmmmmmm

The western world is broke, unemployment high, wages down.

Air fares to Thailand are two to three time what they were (2009 I paid 245UKP for a return LHR to BKK, 2010 cheapest was 650UKP)

The Baht is 20 percent more expensive (2009 I got 54Bht to 1 UKP, 2010 47bht to 1 UKP)

Western news portrayed Thailand as a war zone

None of Thailand's problems have been resolved

I don't think tourism will ever recover in Thailand, in fact I think it will get worse as new bookings are unlikely to be made.

UK travel agents don't advertise holidays to Thailand any more, and the Baht is not listed in UK currency exchange shops.

If I didn't have a Thai wife, I would have left last month.

Agree and don't forget that some neighbouring countries used this situation by presenting there countries as ultimute Asian travel destignation true excellent marketing campaigns.

[cheshiremusicman]

This thread is a joke right? I agree with the post that says 6 years (at best). The people living/running this country have their heads uo their <deleted>. There are so many problems in this country associated with tourists/holiday makers/expat's... Try treating people equally and not ripping them off time and time again.. Half the reason people aren't coming back here is because they are sick to the back teeth of the thai national sport- Let's steel from farang-

Dead right!! Talk, Talk, Talk and the average Thai will believe in anything that comes from 'above'.

[cheshiremusicman]

This thread is a joke right? I agree with the post that says 6 years (at best). The people living/running this country have their heads uo their <deleted>. There are so many problems in this country associated with tourists/holiday makers/expat's... Try treating people equally and not ripping them off time and time again.. Half the reason people aren't coming back here is because they are sick to the back teeth of the thai national sport- Let's steel from farang-

Dead right!! Talk, Talk, Talk and the average Thai will believe in anything that comes from 'above'.

[robblok]

I tend to agree, 6 month, maybe one year and the tourism will start to recover.

With the actual media system people tend to forget much more quickly (see the after bombs Bali example, twice in few years and now again in full power) so IMHO, if no more tsunamies, SARS, H1N1, yellow shirt, red shit shirt, tourists will start to flow like before.

Maybe less euro-americans, but more arabs, indian and asians.

I think your right about that (about different kind of tourists) But lets not forget that Asians are easily scared. Once they deem it unsafe they wont come.

[warfie]

6 months from now? November... peak season anyway, so yeah, the tourism sector probably will look a lot healthier in November when compared to June... duh!

[fasteddie]

Personally I don't think it will ever recover fully. It's not just the danger factor associated with the unrest. It goes much deeper. Many foreigners have been forced to do a complete 360 on their views of Thailand and its people. Although most Thais are great people 5,000 paid thugs will change forever the way the world views the land of smiles.

No question over time things will stabilize and memories will fade but by this time Thailand's neighbors will have capitalized on Thailand's loss.

''5,000 paid thugs'' thought the army was bigger than that!

[w11guy]

IMO opinion they are having a laugh and not a chance will it recover in 6 months, 6 years maybe

One catastrophe after another in the last 2-3 years and this one was the worst of the lot

If you were living outside of Thailand, would you bring your family here?

I wouldn't

Yes. I haven't had any problems at all here. Focus on the news and forums like this and you will always see problems. Live in the real world and it's a completely different place to what gets reported.

I have read on here about the various scams, dodgy women, dodgy police, etc, etc, etc. I haven't come across any of them personally and neither have my friends. Yes, I'm sure bad things happen, but they happen everywhere. Keep things in perspective and focus on the good things. I'm having a great time here.

[asiawatcher]

Tend to agree with all - an artificially strong Baht, ongoing political turmoil and it won't be solved with elections with November being targeted as the next 'uprising', word from Cambodia many 'Reds' are arming and the Cambodians gladly making sales of arms and munitions, corruption still rife, scams such as King Power, air line tickets that were never issued after payment from Pattaya agencies and then hundred and one negativity that keeps Thailand in the back room.

If Thakky rears his square face yet again and his kids do not 'show-n'-tell' where their 6BN Baht went (to the Reds) then tourism will continue to slide apart from the perspective that the countries is very unstable.

So yes, they will talk it up - same as the Royal Thai News Agencies at 0800 week days and 11:00am weekends telling all the Thais the country is booming etc so the propaganda machine will convince themselves they should spend more on tourism and then people like former TAT Governor Juthamas Siriwan (who has yet to be charged by Thai's despite FBI issuing warrants) can find ways to extract the budgets back into their own pockets. And so the wheel turns - but it IS highly entertaining from the viewers point.