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Thailand Tourism Industry To Recover In 6 Months

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Tourism recovery in 6 months: Bandid

By Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation

The central bank believes the tourism industry will recover in six months, based on past experience, and expects the economy to show improvement during the rest of the year, with five major indicators considered.

BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BOT) Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn yesterday listed the five factors as the global economic momentum, tourism recovery, drought conditions, trends in the policy interest rate and access to funding by small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs).

He said businesses, especially SMEs, must monitor these indicators closely, so they can adjust quickly to any situation.

Bandid made his remarks at a seminar entitled "Thai SMEs in the Era of a Free Asian Economy", hosted by Bangkok Bank.

He said the first factor was whether the global economy would enjoy a healthy recovery. The US economy has yet to pick up fully, while some European countries are experiencing publicdebt problems.

However, many Asian countries are seeing strong economic growth, so if the US and European economies do not pick up more in the second half, Thai exports will have to focus more on Asian markets.

The second factor is the tourism industry. It recovered in six months after the 2003 Sars epidemic, five months after the 2004 tsunami and seven months after the 200809 political turmoil. It is expected to take six months to recover from the latest round of political turmoil, but that will also depend on the global economy and government measures to entice tourists back to Thailand.

The third factor is the draught, and it remains to be seen how that will play out.

The fourth one is the policy interest rate, which has been kept at a low 1.25 per cent in a bid to boost economic recovery. Many times, the BOT has indicated that if the domestic economy recovers and the global economic crisis abates, it may consider increasing the rate at an appropriate time.

The fifth factor that could affect secondhalf economic growth is SMEs' loan accessibility. SMEs have yet to enjoy full access to loans, which means they still suffer a high cost burden. Bandid said many commercial banks had stepped in to help SMEs gain easier access to loans.

He believes the country's economy will grow 45 per cent this year.

Bandid said while Thailand's economy showed positive growth in the first quarter, the economy was affected in the second quarter by the political turmoil.

Tourism suffered severely from the chaos, but other key sectors were also hurt, such as agriculture, exports and real estate.

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-- The Nation 2010-06-19

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If there is no more trouble (and finding out who was paying the Red shirts will be a big factor in "No more trouble") then I am inclined to agree. People need cheap food, cheap hotels and cheap companionship. Thailand will be going strong once again.

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IMO opinion they are having a laugh and not a chance will it recover in 6 months, 6 years maybe

One catastrophe after another in the last 2-3 years and this one was the worst of the lot

If you were living outside of Thailand, would you bring your family here?

I wouldn't

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This thread is a joke right? I agree with the post that says 6 years (at best). The people living/running this country have their heads uo their <deleted>. There are so many problems in this country associated with tourists/holiday makers/expat's... Try treating people equally and not ripping them off time and time again.. Half the reason people aren't coming back here is because they are sick to the back teeth of the thai national sport- Let's steel from farang- :)

Edited by ukinbkk

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6 months from now? November... peak season anyway, so yeah, the tourism sector probably will look a lot healthier in November when compared to June... duh!

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Perhaps, it is an arrogant state of denial for BoT to ignore that the same conditions that caused the recent unrest have not changed, and apart from some vague buzzwords like roadmap and reconcilliation, there is no evidence of any planning or steps toward changing the wine, not just the bottle.

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I tend to agree, 6 month, maybe one year and the tourism will start to recover.

With the actual media system people tend to forget much more quickly (see the after bombs Bali example, twice in few years and now again in full power) so IMHO, if no more tsunamies, SARS, H1N1, yellow shirt, red shit shirt, tourists will start to flow like before.

Maybe less euro-americans, but more arabs, indian and asians.

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Personally I don't think it will ever recover fully. It's not just the danger factor associated with the unrest. It goes much deeper. Many foreigners have been forced to do a complete 360 on their views of Thailand and its people. Although most Thais are great people 5,000 paid thugs will change forever the way the world views the land of smiles.

No question over time things will stabilize and memories will fade but by this time Thailand's neighbors will have capitalized on Thailand's loss.

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Wow - make a prediction that in the historic "high season" of December (6 months from now) that things will be better than now (June - low season).

Wonderful prediction.

Lets have lots of statistics to show that in December that visitor numbers are higher than June, that will really prove lots of things.

Thailand is a mess, its has no freedom of the media, it has a repressive decree in power limiting the rights of all people, its army and government are alleged to have been killing many civilians, it slams the foreign media as liars as they report the truth and not the propaganda and of course everyone is supposed to forget this ?

Thailand is not cheap now.

Its a place full of scams and rip off's,

Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia are all far better value in terms of service and value for money.

Burma should start advertising itself as a great place for tourists perhaps with the headline "We have the same freedoms as Thailand, so come here and forget the overpriced bahtland (and our people are more friendly and will not rip you off) "

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Tourism to recover in 6 months ............ Hmmmmmmmm

The western world is broke, unemployment high, wages down.

Air fares to Thailand are two to three time what they were (2009 I paid 245UKP for a return LHR to BKK, 2010 cheapest was 650UKP)

The Baht is 20 percent more expensive (2009 I got 54Bht to 1 UKP, 2010 47bht to 1 UKP)

Western news portrayed Thailand as a war zone

None of Thailand's problems have been resolved

I don't think tourism will ever recover in Thailand, in fact I think it will get worse as new bookings are unlikely to be made.

UK travel agents don't advertise holidays to Thailand any more, and the Baht is not listed in UK currency exchange shops.

If I didn't have a Thai wife, I would have left last month.

Edited by sarahsbloke

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This report is almost as funny as Germany getting beat at the World Cup!

They seem to forget that, in those other disasters (SARS, Tsunami etc), people in the 'west' still had money to spend on long-haul trips to good-value destinations.

Now, this is very different. A fair number of Europeans are going to suffer financially for a long while, and they'll be looking for much better deals than Thailand and this strong baht can offer.

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I think getting the country back on track would be a wounderfull option, everyone I know back home wants to meet in Hong Kong, they wont have a bar of Thailand.

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6 months from now? November... peak season anyway, so yeah, the tourism sector probably will look a lot healthier in November when compared to June... duh!

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