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IsaanAussie

Pigs 101 (A Start)

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Hi guys,

This is my first post. I am not only a newbee at this forum, but also in the pig-farming-bussines.

I've learned already by reading your posts and wil continue doing this!

Kind regards

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Hi guys,

This is my first post. I am not only a newbee at this forum, but also in the pig-farming-bussines.

I've learned already by reading your posts and wil continue doing this!

Kind regards

Hi Brabo and welcome :D

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China: pig prices impact the world economy

26-Sep-2011 ASAHI

http://www.asahi.com

Of the 1 billion pigs being raised in the world, about half are in China, where pork consumption is increasing as the Chinese economy develops. As a result, pork prices are rising, a trend that is impacting the world economy.

To ease the public's dissatisfaction with the price increase, which could lead to rioting, the Chinese government is increasing pork production. However, the move is causing a growth in demand for pig feed and raising feed prices in international markets.

Following the rise in living standards in China, the number of people who prefer eating meat is growing. However production is not keeping up with the increasing demand. As a result, the price of one pig has increased from 600 yuan (7,280 yen, or $94) to 2,100 yuan.

Corn feed prices have tripled since 2007. The starting wage for migrant workers from Sichuan province and other parts of China has doubled to 2,200 yuan.

In China, pork production has increased more than 10 percent in the past five years to 52.5 million tons. By comparison, poultry production is about a quarter of that amount and beef about one-eighth.

The consumer price index (CPI) in China in July rose 6.5 percent from the same month last year. The growth rate is the largest since June 2008. Of the 6.5 percent, 1.5 percent was attributed to pork, whose prices rose nearly 60 percent year-on-year.

In July, the government announced that it would earmark 2.5 billion yuan for expansion of pig farms and breed improvement. It also plans to release stockpiled frozen pork and import some products from the United States.

By inviting participation from foreign companies, the government is also trying to improve distribution systems and expand pig farms to raise production efficiency. However, those measures are not expected to bring immediate relief. Small-scale pig farm operators, which account for most of the pig farm operators in the country, are withdrawing from the business one after another due to the increase in production costs.

In China, pork prices have been in a three-year cycle, but there is a growing sign that such a cycle will not reoccur. The rise in prices of feeds and fuels is increasingly linked to overseas market moves. In addition, personnel costs are rising. As a result, there is a growing possibility that pork prices will not decline as much as expected.

The pork production increase is also raising world grain prices. In China, corn imports that are used for pig feed increased sharply from 50,000 tons in 2008 to 1.57 million tons in 2010.

In the Chicago market, the futures prices of corn per 25 kilograms rose sharply from less than $4 in the first half of 2010 to about $8 in June, marking the highest price ever.

The volume of China's corn imports is not large compared to the country's domestic production of 177 million tons.

Meanwhile, anticipating that pork consumption in China will increase further, companies in Japan, including Marubeni, Singapore and other countries are investing in pig farming-related businesses in China.

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Yeah RBH, it is interesting. It seems that China is standing apart from the pig world as an exception. I read an article yesterday on the web written by an American industry guy and he claims that there is a global shift towards a common price base. Makes sense when you consider the shift to large scale farms everywhere, even China. What it means is the prices will stay more stable.

Here given the 30% production shortfall this year here and growing export potential, we may well see the price drop back slightly but I think it will remain pretty constant until the feed prices come up to narrow the current gap.

Attached is a graphic picture of the last two and a half years and a linear trendline which I extended out over ten months. It seems to indicate that the current 80 baht range may come back to 75 by mid 2012. Of course if the government steps in then who knows? I dont think they will do much as the producers association here is getting very noisy.

I would be interested in the views of others.

post-56811-0-11156000-1317157526_thumb.j

Isaan Aussie

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Further to the live prices heres my current feed cost per fattened pig. If you compare the price increases you may notice a larger jump. Hopefully not to much. If you want to look more closely, I believe 80% of corn is local and all soy meal is imported, so look look commodities for corn and international for soy.

Feed costs per pig sept 2011.pdf

As far as return on pigs goes, now is the time. Locally piglets are 2,200 baht. Feed cost of 3,400 baht, therefore COP 5,600. Currently 8,000 to 8,300 for the finished pig so a profit of 2,400 baht. Now thats better than the 500 baht people were getting 12 months ago. Lets hope it lasts a bit longer.

IA

Oh yeah, that depends if you can get piglets of course. In Buri Ram I know an agent who cant get feed. Tells me that while the fire is hot, there are an increasing number of irons being poked into it.

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Yeah RBH, it is interesting. It seems that China is standing apart from the pig world as an exception. I read an article yesterday on the web written by an American industry guy and he claims that there is a global shift towards a common price base. Makes sense when you consider the shift to large scale farms everywhere, even China. What it means is the prices will stay more stable.

Here given the 30% production shortfall this year here and growing export potential, we may well see the price drop back slightly but I think it will remain pretty constant until the feed prices come up to narrow the current gap.

Attached is a graphic picture of the last two and a half years and a linear trendline which I extended out over ten months. It seems to indicate that the current 80 baht range may come back to 75 by mid 2012. Of course if the government steps in then who knows? I dont think they will do much as the producers association here is getting very noisy.

I would be interested in the views of others.

post-56811-0-11156000-1317157526_thumb.j

Isaan Aussie

Remember the time when i mention that i was export live pig ? It did very well for 3 months until the exchange rate of Chinese Yuan to THB sink :annoyed: (I did it in L/C from banks as the cash was to much for me to carry across the bridge :D ). I was exporting 200 heads per week to areas building the speed rail track connecting China to Laos, the best part is the buyers there like them big, 120-130kg average. :lol:

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Hi there,

As Isaan Aussie knows, I am starting-up a (small scale) pigfarm in Sisaket province.

Amphur Kun Han, Bak Dong to be correct.

Who can give me a phonenumber from a wholesaler of Betagro feed near my farm? The wholesalers we found didn't have this brand.

I allready contacted Betagro, but they gave me an unreachable number :-(

Thanks in advance

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Hi pigsters,

When things are good here everyone rushes in to find that the normal three year cycles change things for the worse. I am no prophet of doom but it pays to gaze into the crystal ball every now and then.

I am planning to restock my breeding herd and pull my production back to a 4x4 batch as I have talked about before. I thought some of you may be interested in the impact on the cash flow of potential decreases in pig prices and increases in feed bills would have on my operation.

Remember that a batch system is different to a continous flow of raising pigs. With a batch system you are selling pigs every month not at 4 to 6 month intervals. Therefore I would suggest that this be treated as a minimum impact drop in terms of cash flow.

The period shown in the graph is 18 months and the price of piglets and pigs in baht per kilo is shown in the legend. The feed bill numbers are derived by add 20 baht per bag of feed every 6 months. That rate of increase is slightly higher than I have had before but my gut says it will be increasing.

Cash Impact of Pig and Feed Prices.pdf

The impact on cash balance is (115,000) feed and (340,00) piglets and pigs. The result is a 53% drop in net profit.

Isaan Aussie.

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For anyone who read my postings about mummified pigs a few months ago, some good news. The sow first affected has just delivered 10 live piglets. Yippee...

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For anyone who read my postings about mummified pigs a few months ago, some good news. The sow first affected has just delivered 10 live piglets. Yippee...

Actually it was 11. I'm getting old, day before yesterday when the litter was arriving I kept count as I was doing the chores of the day. I thought the tally was eight and went back to find seven, no sign of number eight. Anyway, on we go and the last three arrive, everything is cleaned up and the day goes on. Yesterday morning my helper comes in early with a huge smile, telling me I was wrong there are 11. Got me beat, but happy.

:intheclub:

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<br />For anyone who read my postings about mummified pigs a few months ago, some good news. The sow first affected has just delivered 10 live piglets. Yippee...<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Congratulations "daddy" ;-)

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