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IsaanAussie

Pigs 101 (A Start)

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IA are you sure you were not on the LEO again and counted the empties instead of the pigletsw00t.gif but anyway best of luck with the new litter.

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Recently there was a sharp correction in pig prices nationally. It was more than I expected and prompted me to take another look at my planning. It also has spurred a few questions from guys who have been thinking about setting up something for the wife or GF.

So to try to explain the pitfalls have a look at the chart attached. It shows the US pig prices over the last 5 years. Sorry I have some doubts on the information I have on the Thai market so I choose not to use it as an example. There are clear parallels which are the point I make.

USA seasonal Prices 5 years.pdf

Firstly looking at the shaded area of prices you will note a seasonal decline in the autumn each year which bottoms out in December. Other factors effect the maximum and minimum levels but the basic industry shows consistent trends. The same happens here as RedBullHorn pointed out. As the Thai Industry matures under corporate farming domination, the yearly highs end just prior to the Bhuddist Lent and decline quickly as overstock is cleared. Prices build again as New Year and Chinese New Year approach building to the pre Lent peak.

So given that, if you are going to invest in some pigs for the lady's family to raise, when should you do it? Take another look at the graph at the column bars. Here the gain in pig prices during the period from purchase of piglets at 4 to 6 weeks old until they are grown out and sold at 100 kgs. Basically in the US, you buy piglets at the lowest price point not at the top of the market.

Now is too late for the New Year peak to start piglets, but not too late if you buy advanced growers. If you can buy pigs that where farrowed in July, at todays prices, then you will do alright. Find someone with young pigs, a hole and his pocket and terror in the eyes.

Isaan Aussie

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I would like to suggest to anyone who is into pig farming here that you have a look at the livestock statistics published for your province. I am forward planning my herd and to be honest I was startled by what I found. Whilst Sisaket province matches the national average of 1.6 boars per breeding farm there are more boars than sows in my Amphoe and a maximum of 24 sows held by any one breeder. What that means, without going into the details of the number of people growing out piglets, I have a potential market within a 20 km radius or less of over 5,000 piglets a year. Little wonder I cleared everything so easily last time.

Overall in the province everything is in balance and there is the capacity to maintain the numbers, but the distribution of that capacity is a different story. We have all read that from a national perspective, the Dept of Ag and Co-Ops has the task of maintaining these balances, and that interprovincial trading is monitored and "sometimes" controlled. But within the province it's more a matter of each Amphoe for itself.

If you want to breed pigs or for that matter just grow them, check your locations numbers out. You can determine your market for live pigs and get an idea of the competition's potential among the growers around your local market.

In my case some jealousy related complaints have caused problems at Tambon level where there are only small growing farms and little interest. But when those issues were brought to Amphoe level, they were met with deaf ears. Now I figure I have an idea why I got supported, I can help improve the supply from within the Amphoe rather than having all those piglets being bought from "outside". Could be wrong of course....but this is Thailand.

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A week ago I posted about the seasonal nature of prices and used the US as a sample. I have been asked to get the Thai numbers together. Actually, pestered is closer to the truth.

The first graph shows the live prices here in Thailand according to Betagro for the last four years. A simple linear trendline seems to indicate that prices are trending upwards.

post-56811-0-11174800-1319510117_thumb.j

But if you look at the same numbers overlaid week by week you see a different story. The 2009 and 2010 figures indicate that the prices are staying static with all 4 years being pinned at this time of year at between 50 and 55 baht. Even this year is heading back to that point. The high numbers this year have been attributed to the 54 outbreaks of PRRS and the 30% reduction in production. Now new stock is coming on stream things are returning to normal it would seem.

post-56811-0-75655600-1319510709_thumb.j

The third chart shows the relationship between pig and piglet price movements over the 4 years. Potential pig raisers should look for trends where piglets are cheap, four to five months before pigs are expensive to find the "right time" to jump in.

post-56811-0-45926400-1319510687_thumb.j

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Well done IA...

I've four of this charts for pigs and another four of it for Big Oui catfish, i can't post them because i charted them since farmgate price for live pig was at historic low of ฿35/kg...my charts are graphed on the vanguard sheet and pasted on the wall in my planning room.

One of my pig chart is a 7days moving average graph chart accounding to the Buddhism calender,

This is the chart that determine the weekly price trend according to " Wan Sinn " tradition.

Support and resistance line is now at ฿60/kg...moving average is at ฿58/kg.

Yes...You guess it, i was a commodity trader before i become a farmer :lol:

...so where is the chart for pellet feed ? ;)

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Well done IA...

I've four of this charts for pigs and another four of it for Big Oui catfish, i can't post them because i charted them since farmgate price for live pig was at historic low of ฿35/kg...my charts are graphed on the vanguard sheet and pasted on the wall in my planning room.

One of my pig chart is a 7days moving average graph chart accounding to the Buddhism calender,

This is the chart that determine the weekly price trend according to " Wan Sinn " tradition.

Support and resistance line is now at ฿60/kg...moving average is at ฿58/kg.

Yes...You guess it, i was a commodity trader before i become a farmer :lol:

...so where is the chart for pellet feed ? ;)

Pellet feed chart is probably pasted on your planning room wall? Forgive me if the Buddhist charts are beyond me, but I will try to catch up. My moving average is at 57.2 because I dont use this years numbers as yet, swings are too big and too much influenced by external factors. Resistance point I think you are right. All in all we seem to be on the same page. By the way, my background was strategic market development.

Hey, do you think anyone is taking any notice of this stuff? Second question, how many pigs do you have at the moment? For everyone else, think about this answer very carefully.

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:D Stick yer Charts, it went down to 22Bht under Chavalit.. I had 500 at any one time,auto feed modern system, the lot, imo you scratch a living, we killed and retailed for 17 years.. Get a 7/11, and retire. Never Again.

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:D Stick yer Charts, it went down to 22Bht under Chavalit.. I had 500 at any one time,auto feed modern system, the lot, imo you scratch a living, we killed and retailed for 17 years.. Get a 7/11, and retire. Never Again.

Now I understand your posts a little better. I am sorry that you had such a hard time of it but it sounds like you gave it your best shot. 17 years is a long time to put it to see it all turn to dust. I applaud your effort and regret the outcome.

I wont be throwing away my charts as I believe that it is important to try to understand the realities of what you do if you want to do as well as you can. I am sure I don't have to tell you that a lot can happen in the time that a sow conceives and her piglets are sold at market weight. To me, leaving that 9 month investment completely up to chance is just not acceptable. So I try to give myself as many options as I can.

I do agree with you, it is hard work and the return is not great. Yes I am scratching to stay ahead as most who are living off their farms are. Yes cash flow is always a problem. Yes I must be crazy getting involved and spending so much to get established. But you know something? I may have been born under a wandering star as well but I am exactly where I want to be, and doing what I want to do. Win, lose or draw, your best is all you can do.

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:D Stick yer Charts, it went down to 22Bht under Chavalit.. I had 500 at any one time,auto feed modern system, the lot, imo you scratch a living, we killed and retailed for 17 years.. Get a 7/11, and retire. Never Again.

7/11...i've got 2 outlet in Singapore :P under my father's management... 22 THB under Chavalit but pellet feed wasn't at present 500 THB/sack.

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Dont get me wrong, it was most enjoyable, i cant sit about drinking all day.In the end i sold to a Local who was raising on C.P. s behalf..The prices here crashed in the floods for a while, fish farms were selling of at a loss . As for Franchising, im in Beauty Care now, and most of my mates here are Ozz Barbie Lighters ,so ive heard every version of the Lipstick on a Pig joke going. So now i just drive round Thailand missing the Pong.rolleyes.gif

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WS,

Yours is a valuable story for anyone thinking of seriously investing in the pig industry here. As in any industry, often circumstances will stop the best of plans and personal application dead in their tracks. Those of us in pig farming here have had a rare opportunity to get a good return for 9 or ten months, some did, RBH for instance. I am just one of the struggle town guys I'm afraid but already ready to learn and adjust.

Good luck in your current activities. Hang tough.

IA

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Brits and Ozz blokes never loose mate. One thing that got on my tits were chancers, both Thai n Ferangs. You got the Pom with his redundancy money led up the garden path by Tulak, all they did was bugger up long term plans for the genuine investor and hard worker.If yer got the resolve, you cant loose here, thing is they want the Benz Today,effort free.Hang in, you Crack It.jap.gif

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WS,

Yours is a valuable story for anyone thinking of seriously investing in the pig industry here. As in any industry, often circumstances will stop the best of plans and personal application dead in their tracks. Those of us in pig farming here have had a rare opportunity to get a good return for 9 or ten months, some did, RBH for instance. I am just one of the struggle town guys I'm afraid but already ready to learn and adjust.

Good luck in your current activities. Hang tough.

IA

Mine was a planned opportunity, step by step, from drowning the wholesalers and supplier dead drunk abstracting classified information :ph34r: to negotiating for credit terms to bribing insider to keeping the cost manageable by building the 2 stars sheds instead of the presidential suites. I have been having a good profitable time since i started almost more than a year and a half ago. B) I started integrating my catfish farm with piggeries because of the 8 months long drought in 2009 resulting in a lost of income...remember ? It wasn't by chance as i've already demostrated price forcasting in the pass.

I mentioned this in our PM :

"Farming business is annual based, 3 batches per year...sometime we gain, sometime we don't make, at times we lose and sometime we will hit a big one. Part and parcel of doing business to me, sum them up and average them...and i will see what is the nett at the end of the calender cycle. "

"Khun rau mai chai dai ter lodd way la, way la mai dai, tong tarm chai na"-

In life, it is not always we would get what we want, at times the result may vary, be prepare and be expected" -- my wise neighbour.

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I admire your planning skills RBH, but some things are beyond the crystal ball. :o

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Floods Claim More Than 300,000 Pigs

THAILAND - Following the loss of at least 300,000 pigs in the floods, producers are asking the government to extend the current import tariff waiver on feed ingredients, a move introduced to control food costs.

The Swine Raisers Association of Thailand is asking for the import-tariff waiver on animal feed ingredients to be extended for another two years after the floodwaters recede, reports Bangkok Post.

President Surachai Sutthitham said 300,000 swine had been killed in the disastrous floods, and the figure was rising.

The crisis has severely affected large and small farmers alike but the latter are looking at more damage because they have been unable to move their animals in time to save them.

Large farms are better able to take preventive measures but their costs are still rising from transport problems and investment in water prevention systems.

One of the government's populist measures has been a temporary waiver of the two per cent import tariff on soybeans, which are a major ingredient in feed production, in order to help the livestock industry keep costs under control. The Internal Trade Department's suggested pork price is being maintained at 125-135 baht (THB) a kilogramme, depending on location.

The farm-gate price of live swine is THB52 to 58 a kilogramme, down by THB4 to THB5 from two months ago.

Mr Surachai said the price of live swine is actually less than what the government suggests, as raisers are finding they must sell their animals before full maturity to make any profit.

There are no plans for a price increase anytime soon.

Bangkok Post reports that the association predicts the number of pig breeders will decline as many of those in affected areas quit the industry in frustration.

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