'millions Of Thais Could Die Within 3 Weeks'

[The_Eye_Of_Sauron]

I realize you are busy playing computer games, how to top yourself, or obsessing about pissup photos, but this is what stands a good chance of killing you and your kids in 6 months time.

(From todays Times)

By the way, you can't buy this vaccine in Thailand, they won't sell it to ordinary people, its all being stockpiled.

Only emergency jabs can halt bird flu, studies show

By Mark Henderson

Computer models predict that millions will die across the world unless action is taken swiftly

An outbreak of avian flu among human beings could be stopped before it triggered a pandemic that would kill millions, but only if decisive action was taken within days of the first cases, scientists said yesterday.

If the H5N1 virus now circulating among birds in Asia evolved the ability to pass easily from person to person, health authorities would have three weeks to contain it with drugs before it became a global threat, according to two sophisticated computer models.

Should this small window of opportunity be missed, the result could be a pandemic that infects half of the world’s population, killing even more than the estimated 20 to 50 million who died in the “Spanish flu” of 1918-19. Countries in other parts of the world, including Britain, would be powerless to protect themselves, though judicious use of drugs might reduce the death toll.

The findings, from two independent international research teams, show the urgency of building up a “mobile stockpile” of three million courses of Tamiflu, the antiviral drug, that could be deployed anywhere in the world within three days.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has 120,000 in stock. The models suggest that swift preventive use of the drug to treat people who come into contact with sick patients could contain an outbreak. They also point to the importance of disease surveillance in the Asian nations where an outbreak is most likely. If the first cases were missed, containment efforts could become futile.

“Control of a human outbreak is potentially possible but only when it is in its early stages,” Neil Ferguson, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Imperial College, London, who led the first study, said. “Once it is beyond this, once it reaches the UK, there is no chance of stopping it, only mitigating its impact. We need to act quickly, detect cases quickly and treat people quickly. The challenges are great, but the potential benefits are saving millions of lives.

“This is our only option for making a big difference to a pandemic outcome. If we let it spread we will at best be able to prevent the deaths of perhaps half those infected in the UK.”

Ira Longini, Professor of Biostatistics at Emory University in Atlanta and leader of the second team, said: “If detection and containment starts within three weeks or so, we have a good chance. Once the response takes more than a month there is a very poor chance of containment.”

Both teams said that the WHO should keep Tamiflu in reserve. It is negotiating over a large stockpile with Roche, the manufacturer, which is understood to be considering donating the drugs. While there is an experimental vaccine against H5N1, a pandemic strain is likely to be genetically different from the present one, making it less effective. Tamiflu is considered the best option, as it can be used to prevent infection.

H5N1 flu has caused 109 confirmed human infections and 55 deaths in Thailand, Vietnam, China and Indonesia, and the disease has also been found in birds in Russia and Kazakhstan. While the existing strain is virulent in human beings, it is not readily passed between people — a key step in the development of a pandemic.

Professor Ferguson’s study, published in the journal Nature, examined the likely impact on Thailand of an outbreak of H5N1 flu that can be transmitted in this way. Data about the population, such as number of households, schools and businesses and travel patterns, were used to make predictions as accurate as possible.

In the model, one person in a rural village was infected with the mutant strain and began to pass it on. When nothing was done to contain this outbreak, it spread rapidly throughout the country, reaching Bangkok, the capital, within two months and then spreading abroad.

A year after the first case, about 50 per cent of Thailand’s 85 million inhabitants had been infected. The model did not estimate deaths as it is impossible to predict how lethal a transmittable strain will be, but even if it is ten times less deadly than the present virus, it would kill millions of Thais.

Professor Ferguson then considered what would happen if Tamiflu were given rapidly to everybody within a 5km (3.1m) or 10km radius of an infected person, and measures were taken to reduce contact by closing schools and workplaces.

These approaches will contain an outbreak, but only if Tamiflu is given swiftly, preferably within 48 hours of a case being diagnosed. Prevention must begin before more than 30 to 40 people are infected, and 90 per cent must take the drugs they are given.

Professor Longini’s study, published in Science, analysed a smaller population of about 500,000 people, but reached similar conclusions. Antivirals contained the outbreak, so long as comprehensive action was taken within 21 days of the first case and 80 per cent of the potentially vulnerable population took the drugs. Both models suggest that antivirals will be effective only if the number of people infected by each sick patient is no higher than 1.8.

THE PLANET IN PERIL

# H5N1 avian flu first broke out in Hong Kong in 1997, infecting 18 people and killing 6

# H5N1 re-emerged in Thailand in January 2004. Millions of birds in South-East Asia have died

# There have been 109 confirmed infections of human beings and 55 deaths — in Thailand, Vietnam, China and Indonesia. A suspected case of human-to-human transmission has been reported in Thailand

# The virus has been detected in migratory geese in China, and in wild birds in Russia and Kazakhstan

# Flu pandemics strike every few decades. Most serious on record was the H1N1 “Spanish flu” in 1918-19 that killed 20 million to 50 million people. Most recent was the 1968 H3N2 “Hong Kong flu” that killed about one million

# Scientists consider the best way to contain the H5N1 virus is the drug Tamiflu or Oseltamivir. Britain has ordered 14.6 million doses for next year

# An experimental vaccine for H5N1 is in clinical trials. Britain has ordered two million doses

[Ijustwannateach]

Why the focus on Thailand? Seems to me like lots of countries won't have the vaccine, and apparently from the article the WHO is keeping a tight reign on it even in the countries producing it.

If a truly "new" strain of human-transmissible flu virus hits, millions will die everywhere regardless. That ain't news.

"Steven"

[The_Eye_Of_Sauron]

Focussing on Thailand, as its likely to start from somewhere near here.

What that means is that infections will take place and mushroom locally without people knowing whats hit them. Nor will the Thai health system be able to cope, unless it acts pre-emptively.

By the time it gets to Europe, it'll be more of a known quantity, but still too late for Thailand.

Its not news. no. But then this post isn't in the news section.

[WhiteShiva]

Focussing on Thailand, as its likely to start from somewhere near here.

What that means is that infections will take place and mushroom locally without people knowing whats hit them. Nor will the Thai health system be able to cope, unless it acts pre-emptively.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And, what is more likely - the Thaksin goverment will be in complete denial about the outbreak until it is too late to stop it. It is not like we haven't seen that happening before.....

[Braccobaldo]

At first sight all this seems to me to be too pessimistic, I'm confident on OMS and their vigilancy.

[h90]

I am not a bird, so the bird flue will not effect me.

[ronz28]

Bird Flu Vaccine Takes Step Forward

From Reuters -Aug 7

WASHINGTON — Human tests show that an experimental vaccine stimulates the immune system to fight the bird flu strain that experts worry could spur a worldwide pandemic, a top government scientist said Saturday.

But the encouraging findings do not overcome the major hurdle: producing enough vaccine in the event of a pandemic, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The vaccine is grown in chicken eggs, and production can take months.

Fauci said early analysis of tests in healthy adults younger than 65 showed that the vaccine produced a strong immune response.

The test results, which were first reported by the New York Times, are "an important landmark in the broader plan of how you prepare a nation for pandemic flu," Fauci said.

But he added: "One of the sobering issues is, we still haven't solved the problem that we have had for years and years, which is vaccine production capability: Are we going to be able to make enough of this stuff?"

The H5N1 strain has killed about 50 people in Asia since 2003. Public health experts said the virus was mutating and could develop the ability to spread easily from person to person and kill millions.

Officials are working with vaccine makers to find ways to hasten vaccine manufacturing.

Edited August 7, 2005 by ronz28

[lomatopo]

There was an interesting article, "Nature's Bioterrorist" by Michael Specter , in the New Yorker last February on the avian-flu pandemic.

Also a Q&A with the author is available here .

Edited August 28, 2005 by lomatopo

[Dead_Elvis]

Say there Chicken Little. It has been three weeks old man and we're all still here. I thought you predicted that the sky was about to fall? You aren't that scruffy gentleman walking about with "The End Is Coming" written on a sandwich board per chance?

[Tywais]

There was an interesting article, "Nature's Bioterrorist" by Michael Specter , in the New Yorker last February on the avian-flu pandemic.

Also a Q&A with the author is available here .

For current info:

http://www.promedmail.org/

[singa-traz]

Say there Chicken Little. It has been three weeks old man and we're all still here. I thought you predicted that the sky was about to fall? You aren't that scruffy gentleman walking about with "The End Is Coming" written on a sandwich board per chance?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Or maybe he owns a company that can resell this "tamiflu" online or own shares in one, who knows ?

[Shivek]

I am not a bird, so the bird flue will not effect me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are talking like a kid, dude. Bird flu can effect anyone who eats infected chicken or eggs. So if u are a vegetarian then good for u.

[cobra]

Thanx for the heads up, and you are correct, an impaired immune system may have trouble with Bird Flu,

But realistically influenza has killed more people than than B-Flu, as well as high hyper-tension and cholesterol.

PS: Your avatar is going to kill me way before Bird Flu will,

Edited August 28, 2005 by cobra

[ilyushin]

A recent model was quoted at 7.5 million deaths before the end of the year in Thailand. Most other reports are also showing massive tolls.

[chownah]

I am not a bird, so the bird flue will not effect me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are talking like a kid, dude. Bird flu can effect anyone who eats infected chicken or eggs. So if u are a vegetarian then good for u.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are talking like a kid, dude. Bird flu does not effect anyone because they eat infected chicken or eggs. There has not been one documented case of people getting bird flu from eating chicken or eggs...at least I've never heard of any....you get it from coming into contact with the animals or their waste products. So if u are a vegetarian then good for u but it ain't going to protect you from the bird flu.

[Rj 81]

For anyone wanting more info on bird flu, here's a link to BBC news. Its covers everything you should know about bird flu.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4182746.stm

Rj

[John K]

Pardon my comment, but when your number is up, it’s up. I don’t plan to run from it, simply because if there is no real stop to it, it’s just a waste of energy. If you do plan to run don’t go to another city. The chance of getting it there is just as great, but just a few days later. You need head for low population areas to reduce your contact risk. Don’t they line you up for injections at the start of the flu season if they have a vaccine? If they do have a vaccine, does it not take a few weeks to get up to speed in your body? So why have they not done that yet? I have not been following this too close so I could be wrong on that part.

[ayakiawe]

The bird flu is myth. It is being used to destroy small poultry farmers and create conglomerate farms.

[twix38]

The bird flu is myth. It is being used to destroy small poultry farmers and create conglomerate farms.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ayakiawe

IDIOT!!