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BANGKOK 26 May 2019 17:56

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Some fun

[

Tred to put ouut uyo tubes, but didnnt make it it. the are lot of tubes fom advise, cutting, preparing, selling and facricaticationg.

Edited by philo

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This is not rocketscience. As most of farangs are not there when fertilizing is done, weeding, buying of 8 yo threes, soil being giving to poor families 100' of years ago, ather they depleenishing it 10's of yeas and if the Tappers have a PhD from Kaosarn, your information is at most showing what elements are inNNvolved at most basic plan. What I would like is REAL stories and CONCRTE and TECNICAL advise. TY

Phil, why do you think anything is wrong ?

You say that Last season 600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for8 mnt.

So why not apply my calculation rather than giving it large on here !

600 young trees at .7kg per tree per month = 420kgs per month. For cuprubber last month work on 80bht per kilo. That's 33,600 bht less the tapperscut of 40% gives you a return of 20,160 baht per month based upon the ratesmentioned.

As I said its simple maths, if anyone is in business, you've gotta doyour sums.

Edited by tothemark

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Thais calculate 100.000baht per year per 10 rai rubber trees as a minimum income after cut of all costs. Maybe more, up to many variables. Rubber will pay out, but the problem is not the farm itself, it is the control of a farm. I know quite a few falang who did take the effort to plant and raise a farm and they give up/sell the farm after some years of tapping. Even for Thais it is not easy to control what is going on on the farms. There is a lot of cheating which starts with simple theft of rubber or cutting/tapping more than required. Cheating does not happen between Farang and Thai it happen in between close family as well and it happen everywhere. I know many who just had been tired of all this and gave up. To control your rubber you have to be on site every day, check daily everything and and and.... It's not leaning back and wait the money comes in, it's hard work permanently, a full time job.

fatfather

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Thais calculate 100.000baht per year per 10 rai rubber trees as a minimum income after cut of all costs. Maybe more, up to many variables. Rubber will pay out, but the problem is not the farm itself, it is the control of a farm. I know quite a few falang who did take the effort to plant and raise a farm and they give up/sell the farm after some years of tapping. Even for Thais it is not easy to control what is going on on the farms. There is a lot of cheating which starts with simple theft of rubber or cutting/tapping more than required. Cheating does not happen between Farang and Thai it happen in between close family as well and it happen everywhere. I know many who just had been tired of all this and gave up. To control your rubber you have to be on site every day, check daily everything and and and.... It's not leaning back and wait the money comes in, it's hard work permanently, a full time job.

fatfather

Fat,

I can't think of one agri-business in Thailand that isn't a nut cracker!! ;)

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In my humble opinion, the statement by Tothemark, "Its not about the $ received its all about the Kg's." is exactly to the mark.

I am not sure however that his maths are the same as mine.

Philo's "600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnt." was just that. A gross amount including tappers percentage, and it was on last years prices.

So my calculator tells me that THB 20,000 divided by last years average price of THB100/kg = 200kg for 600 trees per month.

This equates to 0.33 kg/tree/month, using your preferred calculation.

This in turn is 200 kg/rai/year using my, and the Governments preferred calculation.

This incidentally is exactly the same as the THB 100,000 per 10 rai quoted by fatfather today.

Remember that the governments national average is 289 kg/rai/year.

Clive

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Hi Clive (Boeing)

I suppose it all depends upon what the meaning of philco'sgross is.

Gross received before tappers split, or (often the misconception) whats left in their hand., which is what i had presumed.

Boeing if you are only getting .33kg per month over the yearthat's considerably lower than the figures you should be achieving. How old are your trees ?

I find that many will look at it on a monthly basis when itshould only be calculated over a 12 month period.

Some of these government stats are flawed in that they lookat the countries rubber output and divide it by the number of rai put torubber. Bearing in mind that includesrubber rai from 1-7 years, and other non or poorly producing rubber, it givesflawed figures and should never be relied upon.

Perhaps there are other producers out there who also have some annual records that will determine their kg per tree over the year, if so, it would be nice to compare yields, so that everyone may be able to benefit from increasing their yield ?

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In my humble opinion, the statement by Tothemark, "Its not about the $ received its all about the Kg's." is exactly to the mark.

I am not sure however that his maths are the same as mine.

Philo's "600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnt." was just that. A gross amount including tappers percentage, and it was on last years prices.

So my calculator tells me that THB 20,000 divided by last years average price of THB100/kg = 200kg for 600 trees per month.

This equates to 0.33 kg/tree/month, using your preferred calculation.

This in turn is 200 kg/rai/year using my, and the Governments preferred calculation.

This incidentally is exactly the same as the THB 100,000 per 10 rai quoted by fatfather today.

Remember that the governments national average is 289 kg/rai/year.

Clive

Clive,

Thanks for that.... I suppose I'll find slight variances of monetary gains per annum but my (conservative) figures are close to that. Plenty of variables = plenty of estimates (or a few different spreadsheets).

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Tothemark. Thank you for your reply.

Firstly, I am certainly not an expert. My 49 rai are only half way through their 7 year gestation period.

The .33 kg/tree/month figure was not mine, but my attempt to convert Philo's figures into your preferred calculation.

The thing I certainly agree with is a desire to convert figures into meaningful calculations we can all understand.

There are many statements around which, despite the best intentions are really meaningless as not enough facts are included. People often asume that you know that a figure is per year or per tree or, as we have just proven Gross or Net.

Scotbeve. I agree that we should keep things conservative.

I stated some time ago that I would only consider 300kg/rai/year, 100baht/kg and 50/50 split with tappers. I see no good reason why I should change my mind just now. Then in 3-4 years time, I may be pleasantly supprised.

Keep this post going. I love it!

Clive

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In my humble opinion, the statement by Tothemark, "Its not about the $ received its all about the Kg's." is exactly to the mark.

I am not sure however that his maths are the same as mine.

Philo's "600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnt." was just that. A gross amount including tappers percentage, and it was on last years prices.

So my calculator tells me that THB 20,000 divided by last years average price of THB100/kg = 200kg for 600 trees per month.

This equates to 0.33 kg/tree/month, using your preferred calculation.

This in turn is 200 kg/rai/year using my, and the Governments preferred calculation.

This incidentally is exactly the same as the THB 100,000 per 10 rai quoted by fatfather today.

Remember that the governments national average is 289 kg/rai/year.

Clive

Clive,

Thanks for that.... I suppose I'll find slight variances of monetary gains per annum but my (conservative) figures are close to that. Plenty of variables = plenty of estimates (or a few different spreadsheets).

Clive and Scot,

Im going to pull my hair out if i had any ! laugh.gif

I appreciate where you guys are coming from and I understand that you are both not tapping for rubber as yet but soon will be. But please, there are some misconceptions that you are working too.

Clive, the figure you were quoting as 100bht per kg in 2010 is for mats not cup rubber and you should base your average price for 2010 at around 55bht per kilo on cup rubber for 2010. http://www.irco.biz/...c-index.php?st=

I did make the mistake of using this years price as opposed to 2010 to do my calculation and I may have also misinterpreted that Philco's gross was before paying the tappers. However, the result remains the same but with a different calculation.

420kg from 600 trees at 55bht is 22,600bht in the month GROSS. (based upon .73kg per tree)

We get over 1kg per tree per month on our farm and my extended family who have younger rubber, get around .7 to .8kg per month. It isnt some mythical government spouted figure, it is fact.

Now if Jim could confirm some yields from his area perhaps that could put this anomaly to bed........ whistling.gif

Finally, remember that these yields are based on a twelve month period and not any given month, which may vary considerably.

Edited by tothemark

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Please don't pull your hair out on account of me!

I certainly appreciate your reply and accept it from a far more experienced source than me.

You are absolutely correct that my assumption was for the average 2010 mat price. As I mentioned previously, there is often not enough information to go by, and guesses have to be made. You will notice that there is no mention if mats or key yang were made.

As "for putting this to bed", I don't think so.

It is for just this kind of reaction we are all here.

Keep it coming!

Clive

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In my humble opinion, the statement by Tothemark, "Its not about the $ received its all about the Kg's." is exactly to the mark.

I am not sure however that his maths are the same as mine.

Philo's "600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnt." was just that. A gross amount including tappers percentage, and it was on last years prices.

So my calculator tells me that THB 20,000 divided by last years average price of THB100/kg = 200kg for 600 trees per month.

This equates to 0.33 kg/tree/month, using your preferred calculation.

This in turn is 200 kg/rai/year using my, and the Governments preferred calculation.

This incidentally is exactly the same as the THB 100,000 per 10 rai quoted by fatfather today.

Remember that the governments national average is 289 kg/rai/year.

Clive

Clive,

Thanks for that.... I suppose I'll find slight variances of monetary gains per annum but my (conservative) figures are close to that. Plenty of variables = plenty of estimates (or a few different spreadsheets).

Clive and Scot,

Im going to pull my hair out if i had any ! laugh.gif

I appreciate where you guys are coming from and I understand that you are both not tapping for rubber as yet but soon will be. But please, there are some misconceptions that you are working too.

Clive, the figure you were quoting as 100bht per kg in 2010 is for mats not cup rubber and you should base your average price for 2010 at around 55bht per kilo on cup rubber for 2010. http://www.irco.biz/...c-index.php?st=

I did make the mistake of using this years price as opposed to 2010 to do my calculation and I may have also misinterpreted that Philco's gross was before paying the tappers. However, the result remains the same but with a different calculation.

420kg from 600 trees at 55bht is 22,600bht in the month GROSS. (based upon .73kg per tree)

We get over 1kg per tree per month on our farm and my extended family who have younger rubber, get around .7 to .8kg per month. It isnt some mythical government spouted figure, it is fact.

Now if Jim could confirm some yields from his area perhaps that could put this anomaly to bed........ whistling.gif

Finally, remember that these yields are based on a twelve month period and not any given month, which may vary considerably.

I'm basing mine on USS 3 w/5% moisture - I wouldn't want to go any other way - but don't want to RSS! Start tapping at 1.5 m with a 50cm girth or better and definitely after 7 yrs.Prices will always be difficult to predict - tho' my insight into the oil & gas sector helps a bit.

Edited by scotbeve

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TY all that have done the math. What I thought I saw was a misproportion:

600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnts

500 7yo was giving THB 8000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnts

The two plots similar - only 3 kms apart, same village, same soil, same treatment, saplings, fertilizer, water ....

Info about 1st plot from old owners - I just bought it for my children. Receipts.

Info about 2nd plot from my wife - no receipts.

I will wait till the end of the month - go there and talk to people with plots adjacent to the two plots, and ask them what their production is. I have given her the house, two cars, the children and monthly cash - against honesty.

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I add my congrats to you Jim on your humorous and informative primer...

..wifey and in laws have just this week opened up another 600+ trees and they seem to have started at the 800 to one metre level on 45+ cm trees...growth rate seems all over the map in some rows unfortunately...(we bought this part of the farm with these trees at about 3yo).

Wifey et al tapped 3 on 1 off on the mature trees on another part of the farm..now doing the same on new ones.

On the subject of weed control , I read on an Indian state website that clear cut and removal of all weeds/grass is not recommended ( natural moisture retention seemed to be the factor along with erosion)...during all our floods down here thousands of trees on flat land simply fell over due to ground turning to treacle on land with little or no ground cover.

We have sprayed Glyphosphate to get rid of the brush type weeds and now mostly have just that vicious leg cutting grass which we cut every three months or so...seems to grow up behind you as you walk the line though...all that grass mulch has got to be good for the trees methinks. Interestingly some areas just grow some low pretty purple flowered weeds which turn your hands black after you pull a rai or so..lol

Time now to throw some more baht on the ground in the form of fertiliser I guess....

May all your cups runneth over..

cheers

david

The Purple flowered weeds are Butterfly Pea and the flowers are traditionally used by Thai's to combat Hairloss. You crush the flowers into a mulch and rub it on your head.My wifes dad had a problem about 20 years ago and went around with it on his head all the time. He now has a good head of hair, maybe you can sell them to baldies :-)

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TY all that have done the math. What I thought I saw was a misproportion:

600 8yo was giving THB 20000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnts

500 7yo was giving THB 8000 Gross pr/mnt. for 8 mnts

The two plots similar - only 3 kms apart, same village, same soil, same treatment, saplings, fertilizer, water ....

Info about 1st plot from old owners - I just bought it for my children. Receipts.

Info about 2nd plot from my wife - no receipts.

I will wait till the end of the month - go there and talk to people with plots adjacent to the two plots, and ask them what their production is. I have given her the house, two cars, the children and monthly cash - against honesty.

Hi Philo,

Glad to see you came back. I thought for a moment you had fallen in to a pit of despair, just remember the only way is up cool.gif

Looking at your info I would confidently say that the 500 trees should be giving you about 16000 per month. This is assuming they are all being tapped.

Who is doing the tapping of each set of trees and what is their cut,how is the fertiliser paid for ? Could there perhaps, be something lost in translation as to your wifes explanation ?

However, the other point to consider is that dont rely on 8 months as the exact period you can tap. Its not as if everyones jets off to Switzerland for four months waiting for the tapping season to start again. You will find some will tap non stop if they can (finances demand it) and some rainy months you can still tap some days. Its going to be difficult for you as an absentee landlord and again perhaps a wife with animosity. But work to between .7 and .8 per kilo per tree as the entire 12 month period and you wont be far off the actual figures at the end of the year.

Good luck

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afew years ago a thai guy said to me on the subject of how much money will the trees bring in is to think that every tree will give you 1 baht per day of its working life : 500 trees should return 500 bahts every day??? yet to see the results but to me dont sound to far off the mark. after the ten/eleven year mark the trees should be in their prime and nearly double output for a good few years, so maybe 2 baht + a tree.<br><br>happy tapping.

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