Thailand Tourist Arrivals To Hit 20 Million This Year

[carib102]

I suggest the doubting Thomases head over to a hotel booking site and see what is available for high season. Very slim pickings at the affordable quality locations. They are almost all booked up. That wasn't the case at the height of the financial meltdown and the aftermath of the Bangkok madness. I keep telling one of my friends what a crap hole Patong is and his laid back Thai response, is mmkay, so whay are our hotels almost all booked for Nov-March. How can I argue with that? All I know is I don't want to be in patong come Christmas and am desperately looking to get away to Cha Am or Hua Hin. or anywhere there is a clean beach. I'm having a devil of a time.

You'll find clean and quiet beaches in Myanmar. Unfortunately more on the Bengal Sea side, but hopefully they will begin to develop Mergui slowly.

[carib102]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

And which of those groups were spending significant sums on money? Probably just the last 3. As an anecdotal story, I can say that when we visit Phuket we see and hear many groups of Chinese and especially Russian tourists. However, at our upscale hotel the guest are all Western or Thai. Same goes for most of the restaurants where we go to eat (although we have encountered some Japanese tourists there). It's anecdotal and based on just 2 weeks out of the year, but still telling I think.

[Nisa]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

You sure these are 2011? I thought the Chinese became number one last year ... or was that the first part of this year?

[WilliaminBKK]

Well my job is partly based on bums in seats, so I feel the industry is doing pretty well. There are ups and downs obviously and certain markets are under performing however Thailand does have steady flow of new 1st timers arriving from other Asian destinations. It took Japan 6-8 months to rebound.

What has declined is business for tour operators, travel agents, ground agents. Thailand has matured as the entire industry has over the last 5-10 years because access is so easy to self manage your holiday. There is NO need to book with an agent anymore, airlines are cheaper direct, hotels are moving to "Best Rate Guarantees" in order to cut out the excessive commission & fees they pay, everyone has a credit care and booking is safe. Train schedule sites are up to date, map apps are readily available, language software apps, review sites are in more languages now & people can self book. So you'll hear over and over again from brick and mortar agents it is doom and gloom but in reality their business simply can't compete.

Because of the widespread availability of reviews, social media, youtube the poorer quality properties are not able to maintain rates or occupancy and a new investor/hotel knows they can garner market share simply by being new & adding Egyptian cotton sheets and following the boutique hotel model.

In the old days we needed agents to suggest hotels - www.tripadvisor.com

In the old days we needed agents to book hotels - Agoda, Expedia, Wotif plus over 400 worldwide PLUS DIRECT

In the old days we needed to know about visas - Timatic from Star Alliance

In the old days we needed to book air seats - Kayak & book direct

In the old days we needed to book tours - easily done & taxis are cheap for Westerners

[ggold]

Thats 54794.52 people per day, can swampy handle that number of people???????

Sent from my GT-P6200 using Thaivisa Connect App

[Notstupid30]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

You sure these are 2011? I thought the Chinese became number one last year ... or was that the first part of this year?

Yes 100% sure ..

[cowslip]

I think that the old expats are jealous........loads of people from OTHER countries are discovering Thailand.

sad thing is what they do to the place to accommodate them,.

[Nisa]

pretty challenging figure of 20 million pax arrivals, not sure what last yr. arrival count was, lets say 15 mio., then it equates to

a 25% increase over 2011. Considering the flood inundation last year, possibly the tourists who cancelled last year are

making the trip - especially in Q4.

I would think 2013 will be ever more challenging for Thailand as Myanmar has opened up and many airlines are now re-instating direct

flights there. I read today's JapanTimes newspaper and it mentioned that ANA - all nippon airways has re-instated direct flights

into Myanmar after a 12 yr. hiatus.

2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

[connda]

Mr Suwat said the ministry goal for tourism revenue was set to reach Bt2 trillion in 2015

These numbers seem to just roll off the tongues of these ministers, 15 million visitors so far this year? Someone forgot to tell the restaurant and bars, because all I hear is that it has been a quiet year! They may have had 15 million 'pass through' the airport transit lounges.

Chiangmai officials said that tourism was down something like 8% (cant recall exact figure) but it WAS down.

No doubt when Oct 2015 arrives Mr Suwat (if he is still in office) will say loud and clear, "we have had 1.5 Trillion visitors so far this year and are well on target to achieve the 2 Trillion I predicted three years ago"

Chiang Mai seems off the tourist radar. Business seems to be slow, and the number of foreigners walking around is just starting to pick up, but I've seen it much better in the past.

[Notstupid30]

Mr Suwat said the ministry goal for tourism revenue was set to reach Bt2 trillion in 2015

These numbers seem to just roll off the tongues of these ministers, 15 million visitors so far this year? Someone forgot to tell the restaurant and bars, because all I hear is that it has been a quiet year! They may have had 15 million 'pass through' the airport transit lounges.

Chiangmai officials said that tourism was down something like 8% (cant recall exact figure) but it WAS down.

No doubt when Oct 2015 arrives Mr Suwat (if he is still in office) will say loud and clear, "we have had 1.5 Trillion visitors so far this year and are well on target to achieve the 2 Trillion I predicted three years ago"

Chiang Mai seems off the tourist radar. Business seems to be slow, and the number of foreigners walking around is just starting to pick up, but I've seen it much better in the past.

Pattaya is the same old self i was out recent and everywhere was died and was so happy to get home where i can get peace ... I want be going out for another six months now i only want out as a felt like i was missing something and to no surprise i wasn't ..

[Imkah]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

Not wobbly, but he said by 2015. The arrivals should grow, but even if they grow to 25 million, it is still 80,000 baht per person. I suppose he expects all the tourists to fly on THAI or they expect inflation to surge.

Anyways, we have these same 3 threads every year about tourists numbers, occupancy rates at hotels and tourist revenues.

Most charter-tourists come here for a 12 night stay, and though Bht 6.700,- a day is a lot for us who stay here for longer periods, it is probably close to median spending for holidayers. Families will spend less p.p. of course, but many (North) Europeans and Chinese will happily spend mentioned amount on hotel/resort only - and the same on food, shopping and pleasure.

[Nisa]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

And which of those groups were spending significant sums on money? Probably just the last 3. As an anecdotal story, I can say that when we visit Phuket we see and hear many groups of Chinese and especially Russian tourists. However, at our upscale hotel the guest are all Western or Thai. Same goes for most of the restaurants where we go to eat (although we have encountered some Japanese tourists there). It's anecdotal and based on just 2 weeks out of the year, but still telling I think.

The top 5 biggest spenders by country visiting Thailand

1.

Russia

average stay of 13.29 days ..........average daily spend of $140.92..... (Total $1,971 million)

2.

China

average stay of 7.61 days ............ average daily spend of $146.63..... (Total $1,902 million)

3.

Australia

average stay of 12.78 days .... average daily spend of $159.19.... (Total $1,700 million)

4.

Malaysia

average stay of 4.78 days..........average daily spend of $137.10.... (Total $1,633 Million)

5.

UK

average stay of 17.35 days .............. average daily spend of $121.84..... (Total $1,631 Million)

Per person daily spending, the top 10 countries

UAE ($175.21),

Saudi Arabia ($166.92)

South Africa ($164.10)

India ($161.78)

Hong Kong ($161.63)

Singapore ($160.96)

Kuwait ($159.66)

Australia ($159.19)

Brunei Darussalam ($155.30)

Korea ($153.17).

http://www.tatnews.o...alue-money.html

* The first half of of this year saw an increase of 28% in Chinese tourists making them the number 1 foreign tourist to visit Thailand. Beyond the personal mental issues, the reason people may not see the tourist numbers going up so much over the years is because Thailand is not just increasing the number of tourists but also the quality of tourists.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[Nisa]

The tourists in the top 10 for international visitors to Thailand in 2011 were from:

• Malaysia (2.47 million)
  
• China (1.76 million)
  
• Japan (1.12 million)
  
• Russia (1,014,493)
  
• South Korea (1,014,292)
  
• India (916,787)
  
• Laos (887,677)
  
• Australia, (854,064)
  
• Great Britain (844,221)
  
• United States (684,073)
  

You sure these are 2011? I thought the Chinese became number one last year ... or was that the first part of this year?

Yes 100% sure ..

Sorry about that -- actually went and saw that indeed I was thinking about a news report talking about this first have of this year.

[rubl]

pretty challenging figure of 20 million pax arrivals, not sure what last yr. arrival count was, lets say 15 mio., then it equates to

a 25% increase over 2011. Considering the flood inundation last year, possibly the tourists who cancelled last year are making the trip - especially in Q4.

I would think 2013 will be ever more challenging for Thailand as Myanmar has opened up and many airlines are now re-instating direct

flights there. I read today's JapanTimes newspaper and it mentioned that ANA - all nippon airways has re-instated direct flights

into Myanmar after a 12 yr. hiatus.

2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me

[Nisa]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

Not wobbly, but he said by 2015. The arrivals should grow, but even if they grow to 25 million, it is still 80,000 baht per person. I suppose he expects all the tourists to fly on THAI or they expect inflation to surge.

Anyways, we have these same 3 threads every year about tourists numbers, occupancy rates at hotels and tourist revenues.

Most charter-tourists come here for a 12 night stay, and though Bht 6.700,- a day is a lot for us who stay here for longer periods, it is probably close to median spending for holidayers. Families will spend less p.p. of course, but many (North) Europeans and Chinese will happily spend mentioned amount on hotel/resort only - and the same on food, shopping and pleasure.

Again, I think people are confusing two different things. Total Tourist Receipts vs Foreign Tourist Arrivals. Domestic Tourism in Thailand accounts for around 20 to 25% of the total Tourist Revenue.

[mic59]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

The original definition of a trillion was a million million millions but has since been watered down to a million millions. Based on the original trillion your calculation of 100,000 dollars is about right. However, I would believe it to be more like this:

THB2,000,000,000,000(2 trillion) total tourism revenue divided by 20,000,000 tourists equals THB100,000 per tourist. exchange rate between 28 and 30 depending whether Australian or US dollars and average per tourist is about $3333-$3571. Not unreasonable, some people stay at places like Trat and Pai and spend very little, some stay in Pattaya, Bangkok and Phuket and spend quite a bit.

[Nisa]

pretty challenging figure of 20 million pax arrivals, not sure what last yr. arrival count was, lets say 15 mio., then it equates to

a 25% increase over 2011. Considering the flood inundation last year, possibly the tourists who cancelled last year are making the trip - especially in Q4.

I would think 2013 will be ever more challenging for Thailand as Myanmar has opened up and many airlines are now re-instating direct

flights there. I read today's JapanTimes newspaper and it mentioned that ANA - all nippon airways has re-instated direct flights

into Myanmar after a 12 yr. hiatus.

2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me

The article says there has been an increase of 8% Jan thru Sep this year as compared to last year. The say they expect tourism for Thailand to hit 20 Million this year. I don't think anything said disputes your math. I did a quick search and couldn't find numbers for Jan thru Sep. but found some for Jan thru Nov which had the number at 17,105,283. So, your 15.1M is probably accurate.

[rubl]

2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me

The article says there has been an increase of 8% Jan thru Sep this year as compared to last year. The say they expect tourism for Thailand to hit 20 Million this year. I don't think anything said disputes your math. I did a quick search and couldn't find numbers for Jan thru Sep. but found some for Jan thru Novwhich had the number at 17,105,283. So, your 15.1M is probably accurate.

5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions

[a99az]

Guys don't forget this news is for local gullible consumption, not for the likes of us.

[Nisa]

2011 saw an increase of near 20%. 19,000,000+ in 2011 compared to 16,000,000 in 2010. There was only one month last year that saw a significant drop in Tourism and that was November. But other months saw some huge increases.

So 15M in Jan-Sept 2012 is 8% increase over 2011, that makes 13.9M in Jan-Sept 2011.

In all of 2011 19M which means 5.1M in last three months, so this year it is expected to get 5M in the last three months. So over the whole year that would be about 5.1% increase, I think. Mind you, tourist arrival figures always confuse me

The article says there has been an increase of 8% Jan thru Sep this year as compared to last year. The say they expect tourism for Thailand to hit 20 Million this year. I don't think anything said disputes your math. I did a quick search and couldn't find numbers for Jan thru Sep. but found some for Jan thru Novwhich had the number at 17,105,283. So, your 15.1M is probably accurate.

5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions

Why do you expect only 5 Million the last 3-months of the year? I think you are trying incredibly hard to confuse yourself or others by making up the fact anyone predicts the number of tourist arrivals will only be 20 Million this year. Reread the OP, nothing in the article comes close to saying this. They had a goal of 20 Million for the year and they are simply saying they are going to hit that goal. There is clearly no prediction at all in this article to what the final number will be except that they are very confident the goal, they previously set for the year, will be reached given the current number of tourists heading into the high season.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[Notstupid30]

5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ...

[madmitch]

5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ...

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

Edited October 16, 2012 by madmitch

[Notstupid30]

5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ...

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

I was taking the piss ... but still people do like to get away for Christmas & New Year .. lets be honest now but the last few Christmas here in LOS have been awful will in Pattaya anyway and don't see anything changing there this year ..

[Nisa]

5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ...

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

I was taking the piss ... but still people do like to get away for Christmas & New Year .. lets be honest now but the last few Christmas here in LOS have been awful will in Pattaya anyway and don't see anything changing there this year ..

To clarify, what do you mean by awful, not many tourists or too many? From a western and personal perspective I can't see going on vacation during Christmas unless it is to see family and certainly wouldn't feel very festive spending Christmas in Pattaya but I could swear when booking online I have seen many hotels have a High & Low Season price and an X-Mas / New Year price. So, I am guessing it may be the biggest couple weeks of the year when it comes to tourism..

[Notstupid30]

5 Million could happen but really can't see it happening in all truth due to people not having money to spend plus Christmas is around the corner ...

Is this a serious post?

Since when have Chinese etc celebrated Christmas? And it's the West that it's struggling at the moment not the East and if you read the thread you'll know that the East is where most tourists are coming from.

They'll easily hit 25% of the overall target in the last quarter, typically the second busiest quarter for tourism.

I was taking the piss ... but still people do like to get away for Christmas & New Year .. lets be honest now but the last few Christmas here in LOS have been awful will in Pattaya anyway and don't see anything changing there this year ..

To clarify, what do you mean by awful, not many tourists or too many? From a western and personal perspective I can't see going on vacation during Christmas unless it is to see family and certainly wouldn't feel very festive spending Christmas in Pattaya but I could swear when booking online I have seen many hotels have a High & Low Season price and an X-Mas / New Year price. So, I am guessing it may be the biggest couple weeks of the year when it comes to tourism..

No tourism at all .. bars are empty well they have been now for the last 3 years now during Christmas ..

[techboy]

Mr Suwat said the ministry goal for tourism revenue was set to reach Bt2 trillion in 2015

These numbers seem to just roll off the tongues of these ministers, 15 million visitors so far this year? Someone forgot to tell the restaurant and bars, because all I hear is that it has been a quiet year! They may have had 15 million 'pass through' the airport transit lounges.

Chiangmai officials said that tourism was down something like 8% (cant recall exact figure) but it WAS down.

No doubt when Oct 2015 arrives Mr Suwat (if he is still in office) will say loud and clear, "we have had 1.5 Trillion visitors so far this year and are well on target to achieve the 2 Trillion I predicted three years ago"

I love it when guys like you accuse people of making things up when I read your own abusurd personal speculation sprinkled with a bit of hearsay.

[rubl]

5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions

Why do you expect only 5 Million the last 3-months of the year? I think you are trying incredibly hard to confuse yourself or others by making up the fact anyone predicts the number of tourist arrivals will only be 20 Million this year. Reread the OP, nothing in the article comes close to saying this. They had a goal of 20 Million for the year and they are simply saying they are going to hit that goal. There is clearly no prediction at all in this article to what the final number will be except that they are very confident the goal, they previously set for the year, will be reached given the current number of tourists heading into the high season.

Why I only expect 5M tourist in the last three months of the year? Well simple, the Minister for Tourism said "the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand." Confident or not, but no indication the numbers will be higher. That means the last three months of this year might get less tourists than the last three months last year. Of course there is the distinct possibility the MoT will be pleasantly surprised by hordes of tourists.

BTW 900 charters with 500 passengers per plane = 450,000. Well that explains almost 10% of the 5M still expected

[Nisa]

5.1M in last three months of 2011 and 5M expected in last three months of 2012. I wonder why this slowdown. Is it the delayed effect of 2011 flooding, as the last three months of 2011 seems to have been normal to good? Is tourism to Thailand slowing for other reasons? I'm not into this, I have no explanation, only questions

Why do you expect only 5 Million the last 3-months of the year? I think you are trying incredibly hard to confuse yourself or others by making up the fact anyone predicts the number of tourist arrivals will only be 20 Million this year. Reread the OP, nothing in the article comes close to saying this. They had a goal of 20 Million for the year and they are simply saying they are going to hit that goal. There is clearly no prediction at all in this article to what the final number will be except that they are very confident the goal, they previously set for the year, will be reached given the current number of tourists heading into the high season.

Why I only expect 5M tourist in the last three months of the year? Well simple, the Minister for Tourism said "the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand." Confident or not, but no indication the numbers will be higher. That means the last three months of this year might get less tourists than the last three months last year. Of course there is the distinct possibility the MoT will be pleasantly surprised by hordes of tourists.

BTW 900 charters with 500 passengers per plane = 450,000. Well that explains almost 10% of the 5M still expected

Again, you are going out of your way to confuse and distort a very simply thing that has already been explained. Actual, Expected and Goals are all different things. In regards to this article ... NOBODY said tourism would not exceed 20 Million this year. NOBODY said or even hinted or suggest the number of tourist this year would only be 20 Million. In fact, NOBODY predicted what the the total number will be except to toot their horn to say they will meet their goal.

If you want to know what they expect the total number to be then I suggest you look at a different article or look it up as I am sure the number is out there. Earlier this month they were expecting the number of total tourists for the year to reach 21.5 Million which would be an increase of 13% year over year and an extra 1.5 Million (above your 5 Million) to add to your calculations for the last months of the year. http://www.etravelblackboardasia.com/article/86808/thai-forecast-extra-intl-travellers

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[Cardiff1963]

I wonder what planes they are using now...!?

Another 5 million tourists (for the rest of the high season) on the "remaining" 900 flights is roughly equivalent to 5500 people per flight??

Or are they coming in suitcases now too?

To be fair he did say charter flights rather than scheduled flights or buses, taxis, walk in, etc.

Really..??

So you can pick out where the word(s) 'charter flight' are mentioned in the original article can you??

What I see is:

"He said the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand."

Or are you reading something I am not...?

Yeah, I think he's reading the article

[ginjag]

I would love to see===all cross border workers NOT classed as tourists.

all visa runs (forced to exit-entry) NOT classed as tourists

all transit and similar NOT classed as tourists

business-work NOT classed as tourists

an. other

ONLY holidays / vacation, we could then have seperate stats, and true figures to work on. I may be wrong with part of this post but hope most posters will get my drift. let posters argue about what figures are given because no one will ever know.