Thailand Tourist Arrivals To Hit 20 Million This Year

[Postmaster]

Stop it; stop it lads. Why are you lot so negative in the Land of Smiles. Are you not enjoying yourselves anymore ? Too long in front of your PC for sure. Relax a bit. Get outside more.

[ALFREDO]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

2.500 Euro, 3.000 Dollar approximately, in 2015 less when more Tourists come, up a good percentage.

a 20 day trip = easy done, over all!

[Nisa]

I would love to see===all cross border workers NOT classed as tourists.

all visa runs (forced to exit-entry) NOT classed as tourists

all transit and similar NOT classed as tourists

business-work NOT classed as tourists

an. other

ONLY holidays / vacation, we could then have seperate stats, and true figures to work on. I may be wrong with part of this post but hope most posters will get my drift. let posters argue about what figures are given because no one will ever know.

There are more broke down numbers out there if you want them but believe it or not, these visa runs account for a small percentage and somebody here doing visa runs for a tourist Visa or Visa exempt status is a tourist. And people on Retirement Visas or business Visas or Day Worker passes are not counted as tourists just as transit passengers are not. However, anybody crossing the border would be counted as a Foreign Arrival. You will also not be counted twice if you are under the same Arrival Card (using multi-entries).

The below are for the period of Jan thru March of 2011 and cover TOURIST arrivals (http://www.tourism.g...port2011(1).pdf)

......................................Total Visitors ................ Arrived by plane .............. Arrived by land ............... Arrived by boat

Europe ..............................1,794,646 ........................1,656,492.......................... 88,307............................. 49,847

The Americas ..................271,314 ........................ 237,750............................... 20,935.......................... 12,629

Oceania ........................... 205,140 ........................ 184,163............................ 10,093.......................... 10,884

So, if we were to assume ALL (to try and cover runs by plane and boat) land arrivals from these countries are border runs then this represents about 5% of the numbers from these countries. However, it is important to keep in mind that the majority of people visiting are not westerners. Those from the top countries like China and Malaysia have much shorter averages of stay and much more prone to be real tourists than westerners. So, if you want to discount for border runs, my guess is you can lower the total number by a low of 3% or by a high of 8% .

However, one key point of keeping track of tourists and/or visitor numbers is about comparing one year over another and the important thing in terms of doing this is consistency in the data collection.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[ALFREDO]

So you can pick out where the word(s) 'charter flight' are mentioned in the original article can you??

What I see is:

"He said the number of tourists will reach the targeted 20 million, as the last quarter is the high season period, and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand."

Or are you reading something I am not...?

Yes, I read, "" and 900 charter flights will also fly to Thailand."" Also fly =additional= flights.

[ALFREDO]

How many of these 'tourists' are visa runners? Any statistics about, how much the 15/30 day rule finds it way into this 20 Million number?

That will be difficult to be verified, but for the money spent not so important, who comes back, spends again and also. (At least most of them)

[ALFREDO]

I can ell you for sure (since I am working in tourism) that these numbers come from nowhere, but the @ss of some spokesman in some ministery. The increase last year was a joke and and a further increase this year also is.

I know a hotel owner in Udon that was saying this year could see him go under due to tourist numbers.

People that actually believe these figures make me wonder if I am in the same Thailand.

Udon (Thani) -Province, where I am residing-,

is hardly the place, where the regular Tourist goes.

Seems than, more, who go there, most for a (special reason), sleep at -Home stay- at their Ladies place.

Edited October 16, 2012 by ALFREDO

[ALFREDO]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

Not wobbly, but he said by 2015. The arrivals should grow, but even if they grow to 25 million, it is still 80,000 baht per person. I suppose he expects all the tourists to fly on THAI or they expect inflation to surge.

Anyways, we have these same 3 threads every year about tourists numbers, occupancy rates at hotels and tourist revenues.

80.000 Baht in a lets say 2-3 weeks trip is 4.000 - 5.500 a day, Hotel, eating, drinking, shopping, trips, rent a car, nightlife-some ect.

No problem to spend that amount.

[IsaanUSA]

80.000 Baht in a lets say 2-3 weeks trip is 4.000 - 5.500 a day, Hotel, eating, drinking, shopping, trips, rent a car, nightlife-some ect.

No problem to spend that amount.

Maybe for you, but not for me. I would never go to Thailand for 2-3 weeks if it cost me 80,000 baht.

[ALFREDO]

Best reread the post. It is 900 charter flights. That is over and above their regular flights which I would be willing to bet are in the thousands.

As for people just going on to other countries they might not have to go through customs if they can book their luggage straight through. I know on Bangkok air you don't. When we went to Siem Reap with them we just shipped are luggage straight through with them and the only customs was on the return flight here in Chiang Mai.

The average time period of Tourists in Thailand is.

"The average duration of their stay in 2007 was 9.19 days" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

That should be over all arrivals!

[IsaanUSA]

ALFREDO, thanks for that info. 80,000 baht is spent over 9.19 days, or 8700 baht per day.

[Time Traveller]

Although not explicitly stated in the poorly written article, the tourism revenue target is not just international tourist spending but it is for both Domestic and International tourists combined.

For whatever reason the story was written to imply that foreign tourists are responsible for 2 trillion baht of spending.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Time Traveller

[Nisa]

As for people just going on to other countries they might not have to go through customs if they can book their luggage straight through.

Is it common to have to collect your bags on a transit flight? Correct me if I am wrong but if you book a ticket from Country A to Country B, even if it has a stop in country C to change planes or airlines, your luggage goes straight through and there is no reason to go through customs. With all the partner airlines now and the added expense of booking a second ticket, I just can't see this happening too much but again correct me if I am wrong as I have never traveled somewhere, in resent hisotry, that I found the need or found it cheaper for me to buy two tickets instead of just one ticket to cover all flights regardless of switching airlines.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[ALFREDO]

You sure these are 2011? I thought the Chinese became number one last year ... or was that the first part of this year?

Yes, new Nr.1 for period Jan - Jun 2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

[Nisa]

You sure these are 2011? I thought the Chinese became number one last year ... or was that the first part of this year?

Yes, new Nr.1 for period Jan - Jun 2012

http://en.wikipedia....ism_in_Thailand

I guess we are all just getting older and last quarters Yearly Tourist Number thread just seems like a year in terms of us needing to rehash all the same things we did back then and each quarter before then.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[ALFREDO]

ALFREDO, thanks for that info. 80,000 baht is spent over 9.19 days, or 8700 baht per day.

Stats from 2007, so maybe now a bit different and some Hotels cost more per night, than your mentioned number.

Spending numbers, see Posting Page 5 for most countries, 135 - 160 Dollars per day.

Who cares anyway. Greeting from the real Isaan to -Isaan USA- wherever that is.

[crazygreg44]

20 million tourists in Thailand? So what? Take Berlin, Germany -, last year 8.4 million tourists visited Berlin. Try to google results for London, Paris, New York. You would be surprised. Germany got 140 million visitors in 2011. What's so amazing about 20 million arrivals per year for a country that sports some cozy beaches which slowly are taking downward turns regarding infrastructure, waste management, cleanliness and yet unsolved scams?

[ALFREDO]

Germany got 140 million visitors in 2011.

Sure? France (nearly 80 Million Tourists 2011) is since long leading that survey, followed by the USA.

And, even the small Austria has with 23 Million Tourists, still more than Thailand. But not for much longer!

8. Germany 28.4 million 2011 26.9 million 2010

http://en.wikipedia....ourism_rankings

Edited October 16, 2012 by ALFREDO

[IsaanUSA]

Greeting from the real Isaan to -Isaan USA- wherever that is.

Thanks! Greetings to you too.

It's the whole middle part of the USA

[crazygreg44]

Germany got 140 million visitors in 2011.

Sure?

8. Germany 28.4 million 2011 26.9 million 2010

http://en.wikipedia....ourism_rankings

Ah I now see, they seem to count overnight stays, not sheer tourist numbers. Thanks for the correction!

. . .and I was not aware that we Jerries are the top Big Spenders just before em Yanks

Edited October 16, 2012 by crazygreg44

[noob7]

I can ell you for sure (since I am working in tourism) that these numbers come from nowhere, but the @ss of some spokesman in some ministery. The increase last year was a joke and and a further increase this year also is.

I know a hotel owner in Udon that was saying this year could see him go under due to tourist numbers.

People that actually believe these figures make me wonder if I am in the same Thailand.

Udon (Thani) -Province, where I am residing-,

is hardly the place, where the regular Tourist goes.

Seems than, more, who go there, most for a (special reason), sleep at -Home stay- at their Ladies place.

Till the family wanna have cars and motocyes

[noob7]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

Not wobbly, but he said by 2015. The arrivals should grow, but even if they grow to 25 million, it is still 80,000 baht per person. I suppose he expects all the tourists to fly on THAI or they expect inflation to surge.

Anyways, we have these same 3 threads every year about tourists numbers, occupancy rates at hotels and tourist revenues.

80.000 Baht in a lets say 2-3 weeks trip is 4.000 - 5.500 a day, Hotel, eating, drinking, shopping, trips, rent a car, nightlife-some ect.

No problem to spend that amount.

But, you know, quality tourist coming in 4er group: Mum, Dad, 2 kids.

You should calculate that again, methinks!

[noob7]

Best reread the post. It is 900 charter flights. That is over and above their regular flights which I would be willing to bet are in the thousands.

As for people just going on to other countries they might not have to go through customs if they can book their luggage straight through. I know on Bangkok air you don't. When we went to Siem Reap with them we just shipped are luggage straight through with them and the only customs was on the return flight here in Chiang Mai.

The average time period of Tourists in Thailand is.

"The average duration of their stay in 2007 was 9.19 days" http://en.wikipedia....ism_in_Thailand

That should be over all arrivals!

Is that with the 60/90 days stay tourists, doing this 60/90 days 4 times a year?

Also with the Malaysian, coming 'short' for some hours/a night, in the south?

Statistics is a funny thing, isn't it?

[Nisa]

Interesting -- The figure of 2 Trillion for Internation Tourist Receipts for 2015 acttually seems accurate. International Tourist Receipts went up near 25% from 2009 to 2010 and then went up just over 30% from 2010 to 2011. If the rate of increase was to be 25% each year for total receipts then in 2015 Tourism Receipts would equal 1.95 Trillion Baht

International Tourism Receipts in Thailand ...

$16,056 Million in 2009 or approx. 490 Billion Baht (average of $1,135 spent per 14,150,000 visitors)

$20,115 Million in 2010 or approx. 610 Billion Baht (average of $1,262 spent per 15,936,000 visitors)

$26,256 Million in 2011 or approx. 800 Billion Baht (average of $1,375 spent per 19,098,000 visitors)

See: UN World Tourism Organization.

http://mkt.unwto.org/sites/all/files/docpdf/unwtohighlights12enlr_1.pdf

Somebody feel free to check my math/figures but I think I got it right. I am not sure if and when receipts will hit a plateau and this is only based on the last two years of growth but all things considered with floods, political unrest and global economic crisis during this period, it would seem the tourist arrivals are only going to keep increasing at good pace and if inflation and the strength of the baht remain about the same, then the 25% yearly increase seems very reasonable if not on the conservative side.

[Nisa]

Interesting -- The figure of 2 Trillion for Internation Tourist Receipts for 2015 acttually seems accurate. International Tourist Receipts went up near 25% from 2009 to 2010 and then went up just over 30% from 2010 to 2011. If the rate of increase was to be 25% each year for total receipts then in 2015 Tourism Receipts would equal 1.95 Trillion Baht

International Tourism Receipts in Thailand ...

$16,056 Million in 2009 or approx. 490 Billion Baht (average of $1,135 spent per 14,150,000 visitors)

$20,115 Million in 2010 or approx. 610 Billion Baht (average of $1,262 spent per 15,936,000 visitors)

$26,256 Million in 2011 or approx. 800 Billion Baht (average of $1,375 spent per 19,098,000 visitors)

See: UN World Tourism Organization.

http://mkt.unwto.org...hts12enlr_1.pdf

Somebody feel free to check my math/figures but I think I got it right. I am not sure if and when receipts will hit a plateau and this is only based on the last two years of growth but all things considered with floods, political unrest and global economic crisis during this period, it would seem the tourist arrivals are only going to keep increasing at good pace and if inflation and the strength of the baht remain about the same, then the 25% yearly increase seems very reasonable if not on the conservative side.

Breaking this down a bit further ... Based on the above numbers and assuming an average stay of 9.19 days per visitor then

in 2009 the average visitor spent $124 or 3,780 baht per day

in 2010 the average visitor spent $137 or 4,175 baht per day

in 2011 the average visitor spent $150 or 4,575 baht per day

These numbers seem perfectly reasonable as an average considering people need to be paying for lodging and they have come here for tourism and not to sit around and do nothing but visit the local noodle stand to survive each day. And although expats being counted as tourist only make up a tiny percentage of tourist, $150 a day is only about $4,500 a month and probably is also a fair average for expats being counted as tourists (not those retired, work permits ...).

* Baht numbers based on $1 = 30.5 Baht.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Nisa

[Chupup]

Hi Nisa , and the sale of rose tinted glasses has gone up by leaps & bounds, back to Google

[DocN]

Hi Nisa , and the sale of rose tinted glasses has gone up by leaps & bounds, back to Google

He is quoting the TAT- numbers! I mean...the TAT- numbers!!!!

[ALFREDO]

Udon (Thani) -Province, where I am residing-,

is hardly the place, where the regular Tourist goes.

Seems than, more, who go there, most for a (special reason), sleep at -Home stay- at their Ladies place.

Till the family wanna have cars and motocyes

-Noob7-

I doubt that, I see here in Isaan, every year more and more and more, Falangs and Expats building a home, make a old home more nice and driving around-shopping-visiting Restaurants (often, a bunch of people with them) with their just bought motorbikes, cars, many in their spouses names.

Edited October 17, 2012 by ALFREDO

[ALFREDO]

Maybe my maths is a bit wobbly but that's 100,000 bucks per tourist

Not wobbly, but he said by 2015. The arrivals should grow, but even if they grow to 25 million, it is still 80,000 baht per person. I suppose he expects all the tourists to fly on THAI or they expect inflation to surge.

Anyways, we have these same 3 threads every year about tourists numbers, occupancy rates at hotels and tourist revenues.

80.000 Baht in a lets say 2-3 weeks trip is 4.000 - 5.500 a day, Hotel, eating, drinking, shopping, trips, rent a car, nightlife-some ect.

No problem to spend that amount.

But, you know, quality tourist coming in 4er group: Mum, Dad, 2 kids.

You should calculate that again, methinks!

I think, the TAT, shall calculate that.

Anyway, look page 5 Tourist spendings per person, not per family, 125 - 165 Dollars a day for most countries,

= 4.500,- over all!

By the way, you sound a bit same -petercallen-

[ALFREDO]

The average time period of Tourists in Thailand is.

"The average duration of their stay in 2007 was 9.19 days" http://en.wikipedia....ism_in_Thailand

That should be over all arrivals!

Is that with the 60/90 days stay tourists, doing this 60/90 days 4 times a year?

Also with the Malaysian, coming 'short' for some hours/a night, in the south?

Statistics is a funny thing, isn't it?

I would say,yes, it is a "Overall" number, few Tourists from EU, AUS, USA, Russia ect will come only for 10 days to make such an expensive long flight.

But if you have some imagination you can figure that out, no big problem.

From some hour border runners (Malaysia, Lao, Cambodia, Myanmar), I really do not know, but many come only with border passes,

if that counts same a regular Tourist arrival?

Do the countries Lao and Cambodia, count the Falang-Visa and border runners for some hours or a day or two, as regular Tourists?

Who knows.

[Thai at Heart]

Interesting -- The figure of 2 Trillion for Internation Tourist Receipts for 2015 acttually seems accurate. International Tourist Receipts went up near 25% from 2009 to 2010 and then went up just over 30% from 2010 to 2011. If the rate of increase was to be 25% each year for total receipts then in 2015 Tourism Receipts would equal 1.95 Trillion Baht

International Tourism Receipts in Thailand ...

$16,056 Million in 2009 or approx. 490 Billion Baht (average of $1,135 spent per 14,150,000 visitors)

$20,115 Million in 2010 or approx. 610 Billion Baht (average of $1,262 spent per 15,936,000 visitors)

$26,256 Million in 2011 or approx. 800 Billion Baht (average of $1,375 spent per 19,098,000 visitors)

See: UN World Tourism Organization.

http://mkt.unwto.org...hts12enlr_1.pdf

Somebody feel free to check my math/figures but I think I got it right. I am not sure if and when receipts will hit a plateau and this is only based on the last two years of growth but all things considered with floods, political unrest and global economic crisis during this period, it would seem the tourist arrivals are only going to keep increasing at good pace and if inflation and the strength of the baht remain about the same, then the 25% yearly increase seems very reasonable if not on the conservative side.

I can easily trust these numbers in USD terms, simply because of the baht strengthening. Beyond this, the amount of "black" market and unaccounted business associated with tourism means that these figures might well be understated. The reality of the spending figures for Thailand mean they are an accumulated best guess.